美国总统特朗普在当地时间周二表示，很可能在本月底前对进口药品加征关税，半导体关税也将同步推 进，这些措施或与8月1日实施的全面"对等"关税同时生效。 "大概本月底就会启动，我们先设定较低税率，给制药公司一年左右时间回迁生产，之后会大幅提高关 税。"特朗普在参加匹兹堡人工智能峰会后返程途中对记者表示。 特朗普周二预测在8月1日对等关税生效前，还可能达成"两到三个"贸易协议，其中与印度的协议可能性 最大。 他透露美国正与五六个国家进行实质性磋商，但强调不一定会达成完整协议："可以说印度最有可能， 但总体而言我对通知函的效果非常满意。" 对于未获得定制税率的小型经济体，特朗普表示可能统一征收"略高于10%"的标准关税。 周二稍早，面临30%关税的欧盟已确定本周与美国谈判代表会晤。 他同时透露半导体关税的时间表"与此类似"，且芯片征税"操作更简单"，但未提供具体细节。 在本月早些时候的内阁会议上，特朗普曾宣布计划未来数周对铜征收50%关税，并预计药品关税最终将 高达200%。根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款，政府已启动药品进口威胁国家安全的调查。 这项政策将立即冲击礼来公司（Eli Lilly & Co.）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation has rebounded as June CPI year-on-year growth slightly increased to 2.7%, with core CPI rising to 2.9% [1][2][12] Inflation Components - Energy prices have shown a significant recovery, with the energy CPI year-on-year growth recorded at -0.8%, a substantial increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Gasoline prices saw a reduced decline of 3.7 percentage points to -8.3%, while electricity prices rose by 1.3 percentage points to 5.8% [4][12] - Core goods CPI year-on-year growth increased to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices in furniture, clothing, and used cars, indicating that companies are passing tariff costs onto consumers [5][8] Service Inflation - Core service inflation remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Housing inflation was stable, with owner-equivalent rent growth at 4.2% and rent growth at 3.8% [9] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations have decreased, with the one-year expectation dropping to 5%, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points, while the five-year expectation fell to 4% [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index declined. The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slightly decreased, but the market still anticipates two rate cuts within the year, with the earliest expected in September [12][17]

Group 1 - President Trump is likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by the end of the month, with initial lower rates followed by significant increases after a year [1] - The proposed tariffs could impact pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Merck (MRK.US), and Pfizer (PFE.US), potentially raising drug costs for American consumers [2] - The semiconductor tariffs are expected to affect major companies such as Apple (AAPL.US) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US), impacting their popular products like laptops and smartphones [2] Group 2 - Trump is negotiating with about five to six countries, aiming for trade agreements rather than solely relying on tariff regulations [3] - A standard tariff rate slightly above 10% may be applied to smaller countries that do not receive special exemptions [3] - The EU representatives are set to meet with U.S. negotiators amid the pressure of a 30% tariff, while some countries are showing willingness to open trade [3]

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为774.92元/克，下跌0.42%。 国际黄金价格报3337.1美元/盎司，上涨0.01%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 关税政策 特朗普政府的关税政策是金价波动重要驱动因素。他威胁对欧盟、墨西哥等征收高额关税，引发市场对 全球贸易格局担忧。欧盟准备报复性关税，关税升温或加剧通胀，利好黄金。但短期内市场观望情绪使 金价承压，投资者等待政策细节和经济数据明确方向。当地时间周二晚，特朗普称将对小国发关税信 函，税率或略高于10%，为金价提供避险支撑。 通胀数据与美联储政策 美国6月CPI环比涨幅为1月以来最大，核心CPI年化通胀率上升，市场对美联储降息预期略有调整，年 底前降息约44个基点，9月降息概率降至53%。鲍威尔对通胀警惕，意味着美联储降息或谨慎。通胀数 据温和上升未超预期，使美元指数创近三周新高，美债收益率升至6周高位，打压金价，但市场认为美 元上涨可能是技术性调整，黄金仍有回暖空间。 市场情绪与技术面 黄金市场多空交织，短期波动频繁。技术面显示，关键点位如3375美元构成强压，多次冲击未破；3330 - 3350美元区间是重要支撑 ...

Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - Industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June [1] - Fixed asset investment nationwide grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June [1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Regulatory Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, with 55 varieties included [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting to enhance regulatory enforcement in the live e-commerce sector [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on the revision of safety technical specifications for mobile power supplies [1] - A new restricted technology item related to battery cathode material preparation has been added to the "Directory of Technologies Prohibited from Export" [1] Corporate Announcements - Nvidia will restart the supply of H20 chips to China, with new B series chips expected to be launched within the year [2] - Pop Mart anticipates a profit increase of no less than 350% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit increase of 53%-87% for the first half of the year [2] - China Galaxy expects a net profit of 6.4 billion to 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%-55% [2] - Jilin Permanent Magnet anticipates a net profit increase of 151%-180% year-on-year for the first half of the year [2] - Geely Holding Group announced a merger agreement with Zeekr Technology, acquiring all remaining shares [2] - Yangdian Technology announced that Hantang Cloud Intelligence will gain control of the company [2] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.18% reaching a new closing high, while the Dow fell by 0.98% and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.4% [3] - Chip stocks rose, with Nvidia increasing by over 4% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.77% [3]

宏观扰动减少，市场静候美联储九月降息 金十期货特约光大期货点评：7月15日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.85%至3330.50美元/盎司，沪金主连下 跌0.42%至774.92元/克。 1. 关税方面，美财长表示无需担忧美中暂停加征部分关税截止日期，双方谈判"态势良好"。 2. 降息方面，美联储柯林斯表示关税将在下半年推动通胀上升，核心通胀率预计到年底将维持在约 3%；巴尔金认为关税将带来更多的物价压力，但是物价压力不会像2022年那么显著。最新CME"美联储 观察"数据显示，7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%，到9月维持利率不变 的概率为45.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为53.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.4%。 3. 综合而言，随着贸易谈判逐渐展开，市场对关税政策带来的通胀担忧正在减弱，盘面处于整理阶段， 交易者静候美联储九月降息带来的提振作用。 ...

关税最新！ 特朗普：将很快对小体量国家发关税函 数额预计"略高于10%" 当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普表示，对一些规模体量较小的国家的关税信函也将很快发出，对这些国家预计会设定"略高于10%"的关税。 当天稍早时，特朗普称关税征收将于8月1日开始。 当地时间14日，特朗普表示，美方将就关税问题与各国展开磋商，并且对包括欧洲在内的贸易谈判持开放立场。与此同时，欧盟方面也将前来与美方讨论贸 易问题。特朗普还称，目前美方已达成一些贸易协议。 近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他还宣布，从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 德国总理默茨15日表示，在关税问题上，美国政府不应低估欧盟采取类似措施加以反制的意愿。 默茨当天在德国南部巴伐利亚州与州长索德尔举行的一场联合新闻发布会上表示，欧盟已做好对美反制准备，但仍希望通过谈判解决问题。默茨说，他正与 美国总统特朗普和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩保持密切联系，目标始终是尽快达成一项解决方案，以促进对美贸易，并恢复较低的关税水平。 特朗普称与印尼达成协议 宣布对其征收19%关税 当地时间7月15日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发 ...

特朗普：将很快对小体量国家发关税函 数额预计"略高于10%" 智通财经7月16日电，据央视新闻报道，当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普表示，对一些规模体量较小的 国家的关税信函也将很快发出，对这些国家预计会设定"略高于10%"的关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant trade agreement between the United States and Indonesia, marking a milestone in U.S.-Indonesia relations and opening the Indonesian market to American products [1]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [1]. - U.S. ranchers, farmers, and fishermen will gain full access to the Indonesian market for the first time [1]. - Indonesia will impose a 19% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., while U.S. exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty-free and non-tariff barrier treatment [1]. Group 2: Additional Provisions - If any goods are transshipped through Indonesia from countries with higher tariffs, the applicable tariffs will be added to the duties paid by Indonesia [1]. - Trump indicated that similar trade agreements are in progress, suggesting a broader strategy for U.S. trade relations [2].

Core Points - Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU, effective August 1, giving less than three weeks for negotiations [2] - The U.S. Treasury reported a significant increase in tariff revenue, with June's total reaching approximately $27 billion, a 301% increase year-over-year [1] - The overall tariff revenue for the year is projected to reach $113 billion, an 86% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government is shifting its strategy to use tariffs not just as negotiation tools but also as a means to enhance federal revenue [6][7] - Economic confidence is rising among investors regarding U.S. economic growth prospects [3] - The EU has prepared a countermeasure list targeting $72 billion worth of U.S. goods, including Boeing aircraft and automobiles [5] Group 2 - Trump's administration has only reached a few framework agreements while increasing tariffs on multiple countries [6] - The projected tariff revenue for the fiscal year could reach $300 billion to $350 billion, significantly offsetting the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on the deficit [6][7] - The narrative of "fiscal capture" suggests that the government is increasingly relying on tariffs as a revenue source, aligning with the views of trade advisor Peter Navarro [7]