Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is facing significant challenges, leading to a strong performance in precious metals like gold and silver, which are seen as safe-haven assets. Analysts predict a potential cyclical bull market for these metals in the near future [1][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - On January 21, spot gold reached a new high of $4862.46 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.1%, while platinum also hit a record high of $2511.10 per ounce [3][4]. - Silver prices approached their historical peak, trading at $94.48 per ounce, just shy of the $95.87 record set earlier [3]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. policy are driving the demand for gold, with expectations that prices could reach $5000 per ounce sooner than anticipated [3][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds has raised concerns about fiscal stability, contributing to a trend of "devaluation trading" where investors seek alternatives to currency and government bonds [4]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to buy up to 150 tons, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, which supports gold prices [5]. - The copper market is also experiencing significant price increases, with LME copper contracts showing a premium of $100, the highest since 2021, indicating strong demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Commodity Cycle - Market experts believe that a long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with precious metals like gold and silver expected to continue performing well due to structural factors such as increased government spending and geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - The demand for industrial metals, particularly copper, is anticipated to rise due to factors like AI-related capital expenditures and overall economic growth expectations [7]. - Investment strategies are shifting towards gold as a defensive asset, with institutions increasingly favoring it over traditional government bonds due to concerns about their performance in negative scenarios [8][10]. Group 4: Silver and Other Precious Metals - Silver is expected to benefit from the same investment logic as gold, although it carries higher volatility and risks [9]. - Other precious metals like palladium are also considered, but they come with specific risks related to their production locations [9].

Group 1 - The global financial market in 2025 is characterized by significant changes, with gold emerging as a key asset due to rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the dollar's credit system [1][3] - International gold prices have reached historical highs over fifty times in the year, with London gold experiencing a remarkable annual increase of 64.56%, establishing its status as a core strategic asset [1][3] - The rise of gold is rooted in deep changes in the global economy and monetary order, with U.S. government debt at high levels and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to a nearly 30-year low [3] Group 2 - The China Banking Corporation has shown exceptional foresight in its assessment of gold trends, consistently advocating for gold as a strategic asset since 2023, leading to cumulative investor returns of nearly 150% by the end of 2025 [4] - The 2025 Personal Financial Global Asset Allocation White Paper accurately predicted trends in the A-share market, RMB exchange rate, and bond market, confirming the bank's professional insights [5] - The report indicated that the A-share market would experience a slow bull pattern, with trading volume exceeding 420 trillion yuan and margin financing balances rising to 2.5 trillion yuan [5] Group 3 - The latest 2026 Personal Financial Global Asset Allocation White Paper provides clear guidance for asset allocation, prioritizing precious metals, non-ferrous metals, equities, and bonds [6] - Gold is expected to maintain its long-term potential for new highs, while the A-share market is anticipated to benefit from global easing and domestic capital inflows [6] - The report forecasts that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit two-way fluctuations, and the yield on 10-year government bonds is expected to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.9% [6] Group 4 - The China Banking Corporation emphasizes a long-term investment philosophy, utilizing professional research and scientific methods to help clients build resilient asset portfolios that can withstand market cycles [7] - The bank aims to guide investors in seizing global asset opportunities through systematic and disciplined asset allocation strategies [7]

Group 1 - The proportion of gold in global reserve assets is continuously rising, with central banks showing no signs of slowing down their gold purchases. Morgan Stanley indicates that gold's share in central bank assets has increased from approximately 14% to 25%-28%, and this upward trend shows no signs of abating. Risk premiums and hedging behaviors will continue to exert pressure on the US dollar while supporting gold demand. Additionally, policy factors driving "de-dollarization" are currently in a "neutral to slightly accelerating" state, and the evolution of these policies in the short term will determine the extent of the de-dollarization trend [1] Group 2 - China Mobile has launched insurance products through its subsidiary, signaling a rapid expansion of telecom operators into the financial sector. The products, "Mobile Health Insurance" and "Mobile Home Insurance," are currently being trialed in select regions like Shandong and can be purchased at offline service centers. This move highlights the telecom operator's strategy to leverage its extensive offline channel network and customer resources to penetrate the financial insurance services market [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in China is advancing a new model for real estate development, emphasizing the implementation of a current housing sales system. This approach aims to ensure that buyers receive what they see, fundamentally mitigating delivery risks. The ministry will continue to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and maintain the rights of homebuyers through regulated pre-sale fund supervision [3] Group 4 - The upcoming Spring Festival travel period is expected to witness unprecedented levels of cross-regional personnel movement, with both railway and civil aviation passenger volumes projected to reach historical highs. The emphasis will be on self-driving travel, prompting local authorities to enhance road management and service guarantees. This indicates a peak demand period for industries related to energy supply, road services, and vehicle maintenance [4]

REPORT ON GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY BY PRIVATE BANKING BANK OF CHINA 2026 中国银行个人金融全球资产配置 自皮书 2025黄金领涨：主升浪中彰显资产硬实力 2025年的全球金融市场，在变局与重构中走出波澜壮阔的行情，黄金无疑是其中最受关注的资产之 一。地缘政治风险持续攀升，叠加美元信用体系面临系统性挑战，国际金价在年内五十多次刷新历史 新高，伦敦金全年涨幅高达64.56%，不仅远超前两年表现，更以强劲的主升浪确立了其作为核心战 略资产的地位。 多维验证：股汇债市场印证专业洞察力 这种专业洞察力同样体现在对全市场的判断上。 2025年初发布的《2025个人金融全球资产配置白 皮书》对A股、人民币汇率及债券市场的预判，均被全年行情一一印证。报告提出"中国资产价值重 估开启、A股慢牛格局基本形成"，而2025年A股成交额突破420万亿元，两融余额升至2.5万亿元， 长期资金积极入市，市场韧性尽显；在汇市方面，白皮书预判美元"例外论"终结、人民币具备稳定 基础，全年人民币兑美元稳中有升，年末守稳7关口；债券市场上，报告指出中债将展现 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者谢碧鹭 北京报道 2026年开年以来，全球贵金属市场迎来"开门红"行情，黄金价格势如破竹，带动白银及相关板块同步走 强，成为全球资本市场中最耀眼的主线之一。1月21日，伦敦现货黄金迎来历史性时刻，盘中首次站上 4800美元/盎司整数关口，创下历史新高，1月以来累计涨幅已突破10%，远超同期全球主要股指表现。 值得关注的是，贵金属价格的持续走强，直接传导至A股市场，贵金属板块迎来估值修复与业绩预期双 重驱动的上涨行情。多家上市公司股价大幅攀升，龙头个股表现尤为亮眼，部分企业更是借着行业东风 加速资产整合。 多名分析人士认为，从市场驱动因素来看，本次贵金属上涨并非单一因素作用，而是地缘政治冲突、美 元信用弱化、全球央行购金潮等多重利好共振的结果。短期来看，避险情绪与资金流入仍将为贵金属价 格提供支撑；长期而言，去美元化趋势与全球经济不确定性，正重塑贵金属的资产配置价值。 创近五年同期最强表现 2026年开年，贵金属市场呈现出"黄金领涨、白银跟涨"的强劲态势，价格涨幅与上涨速度均超出市场预 期。 黄金作为核心避险资产，开启了单边上行通道，从年初的4330美元/盎司左右起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are experiencing significant volatility due to turmoil in the bond market and trade policy uncertainties, with Bitcoin's drop below $89,000 being a test of its "digital gold" status under macroeconomic pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has retreated to approximately $88,403, nearing its year-to-date starting point of $87,586, indicating a potential technical correction [3]. - The "Fear and Greed Index" for the cryptocurrency market has plummeted from 61 (greed) to 31 (fear), reflecting a loss of confidence among short-term bulls due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Major Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw its stock price drop by 7.8%, while cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase experienced a decline of 5.5% [4]. Group 2: Derivatives and Market Structure - The open interest in Bitcoin derivatives increased from $28.5 billion to $29.3 billion, suggesting that traders are hedging risks through inverse positions rather than simply reducing spot holdings [4]. - This shift in market structure indicates that Bitcoin prices may face significant downward pressure in the short term [4]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - In contrast to the struggling cryptocurrency market, traditional precious metals like gold have risen above $4,750, indicating a shift in capital flow towards safer assets during extreme risk conditions [4]. - Central banks' continued buying has supported gold's defensive premium amid global financial uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The price performance of gold signals a warning about the accelerating instability of the global reserve currency system [5]. - For Bitcoin to regain upward momentum, it must effectively break through the critical resistance range of $100,000 to $103,000 [5]. - Investors are advised to carefully assess the risk-reward ratios of various safe-haven assets and consider diversified allocations to mitigate systemic volatility from geopolitical tensions [5].

据追风交易台，1月20日，摩根大通在最新报告中发出了与市场恐慌情绪截然不同的声音。该行认为，尽管地缘政治紧张局势升级，但欧洲国家像 亚洲央行那样大规模抛售美债作为报复的可能性微乎其微。 这背后的关键逻辑在于美债持有者的结构性差异以及当前更为健康的投资者仓位。对于投资者而言，这意味着不必过度恐慌于"末日抛售"的情 景，但需要在战术上保持谨慎。摩根大通建议投资者此时应获利了结10年期/30年期美债收益率曲线的平坦化交易，并警惕5年期美债收益率已经 在这个关键点位出现的技术性破位。 欧洲手中美债多为"私产"，政府难以强令抛售 全球债券市场正经历着剧烈的波动，一方面，日本政坛的突变导致日债收益率飙升，带动全球收益率曲线陡峭化；另一方面，特朗普总统关于格 陵兰岛的关税威胁引发了市场对"去美元化"和欧洲报复性抛售美债的恐慌。 市场目前最大的担忧源于特朗普总统周末的威胁：对任何反对美国接管格陵兰岛的国家征收10%的关税，并在6月1日逐步提高至25%。这种极端 的贸易保护主义言论让人回想起此前的"解放日"声明，市场参与者开始疯狂猜测欧洲国家是否会抛售其持有的巨额美债进行报复。 毕竟，数据显示欧洲国家总共持有3.8万亿美元的美 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 总量研究 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散 ——解构美国系列第十七篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 减税法案顺利落地，可以对冲关税压力吗？ ——解构美国系列第十三篇（2025-07-04） 近期美债收益率为何再次上行？——解构美 国系列第十二篇（2025-05-16） 特朗普释放和解信号，中国掌握谈判主导权 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十三篇（2025- 04-27） 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十二篇（2025-04-10） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged to a historic high of $4,883 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, particularly related to the Greenland dispute and U.S. tariffs on European countries [2][3][4]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs on goods from eight European countries, has heightened market anxiety, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3][4]. - The relationship between the U.S. and Europe is deteriorating due to the Greenland issue, with potential for a significant trade war reminiscent of 2018 [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic indicators show a decline in the credibility of the Federal Reserve, with concerns over its independence and the impact of tariffs on inflation [6][7]. - Recent inflation data indicates a CPI of 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, both slightly below market expectations, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [6]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with Poland planning to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, which would elevate its status among the top ten countries in gold reserves [9][10]. - The World Gold Council reports that global central bank net gold purchases are expected to remain strong, with estimates of around 800-850 tons for the year, despite a decrease from previous highs [10]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with some forecasting a target of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [10][11]. - The market is advised to adopt a defensive strategy, focusing on diversified investments to mitigate risks associated with potential volatility in gold prices [8][9].

摘要北京时间周三（1月21日）欧洲时段，美元指数震荡上行，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于 4725.49美元/盎司，涨幅2.06%，最高触及4887.82美元/盎司，最低触及4756.81美元/盎司。美国对格陵 兰岛的主权要求，使本已动荡不安的世界格局面临的风险更加巨大，加拿大武装部队已经模拟了美国对 加拿大的军事入侵、以及加拿大可能做出的回应。在此动荡的局势下，市场资金继续追捧黄金等避险资 产。 北京时间周三（1月21日）欧洲时段，美元指数震荡上行，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于4725.49 美元/盎司，涨幅2.06%，最高触及4887.82美元/盎司，最低触及4756.81美元/盎司。美国对格陵兰岛的主 权要求，使本已动荡不安的世界格局面临的风险更加巨大，加拿大武装部队已经模拟了美国对加拿大的 军事入侵、以及加拿大可能做出的回应。在此动荡的局势下，市场资金继续追捧黄金等避险资产。 今日黄金价格最新查询（2026年1月21日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4860.56 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 1086.10 ...