1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each sector is affected by different supply - demand factors and geopolitical events. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals continued to rise. London gold approached $5000 per ounce, and London silver price exceeded $100 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated that Democrats would reject the spending plan if it includes DHS funding. India and the EU reached an agreement to lower auto import tariffs. Domestic gold had a significant inflow of 3.1 tons, and there were changes in inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to go long on gold as Trump's policy changes trigger capital to sell US Treasuries. For silver, due to strong speculation and changing inventory situations, it is advised to participate cautiously [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: - **Market Performance**: Copper price was strongly running on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market was trading the de - dollarization caused by the Greenland dispute. Supply was tight, and there were mine strikes and blockades. Rio Tinto raised its production guidance. Demand was in the domestic downstream seasonal off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract on Friday increased by 0.98% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 24,290 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near the Spring Festival, multiple factors restrict price increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - **Alumina**: - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract on Friday increased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 2724 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation - maintenance stage. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebound lacks fundamental support, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Follow the movement of the main funds [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 0.06% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased this week, and social and warehouse inventories increased slightly. Demand in the polysilicon and organosilicon industries was weakening [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. Consider going short lightly on rallies [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to some lithium salt plant overhauls. Demand in the lithium - related industries was also decreasing. Inventory was in a tight - balance situation [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to supply concerns and demand for export rush, the price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 50,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.41% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, and inventory increased slightly. Demand in some sectors was weak, but component exports were expected to support the market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. - **Tin**: - **Market Performance**: Tin price reached a new high on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tight, and demand was strong as indicated by the high premium of deliverable brands [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel supply and demand were neutral, with significant structural differentiation. Rebar demand was weak, but supply also decreased. Plate demand was stable, and exports were high. Steel mills were in a loss - making situation, limiting production increase [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions on the 2605 contract of rebar. The reference range for RB05 is 3120 - 3180 yuan/ton [5]. - **Iron Ore**: - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were neutral. Steel mill profits were poor, and blast furnace production might decrease. Supply followed seasonal patterns and increased slightly year - on - year. Port and steel mill inventories were at low levels [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal**: - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1143 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak. Coke price adjustments occurred, and inventory was at different levels in different links [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be abundant in the long - term from South America. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong, and exports improved marginally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the weather in South America. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound, following the international cost - end [6]. - **Corn**: - **Market Performance**: Corn futures were strongly running, and spot prices in corn - producing areas mostly rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress was over half, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Inventories at ports and downstream enterprises were lower than usual. Northeast deep - processing enterprises were eager to build inventories, and southern regions preferred imports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited supply - demand contradictions [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market declined last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in a weak seasonal reduction, and demand for exports improved. Overall, the near - term was loose, and the long - term was in a weak seasonal reduction [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the short term. Continue the reverse - spread strategy. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium term [7]. - **Sugar**: - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar 03 contract closed at 14.73 cents/pound, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5180 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.48% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the sugar - alcohol price difference was widening, and there was an expectation of reducing the sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestically, the sales progress was slow, and new sugar was mainly stored. SR05 was priced by imports and domestic production, and December imports added pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions and adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton**: - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures fluctuated and declined last Friday, and international crude oil first rose and then fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton export sales increased significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures opened lower and fluctuated narrowly, and the downstream operating rate was stable, with inventories decreasing [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with the price range of 14,500 - 14,900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices declined, and spot prices showed mixed trends [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the increase in egg prices at the end of the year led to better profits and more active replenishment. As the stocking period ended, supply increased and demand decreased, and egg prices might decline seasonally [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Spot prices are expected to decline seasonally, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Hogs**: - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices were weakly running, and weekend spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are expected to increase from the end of the month to before the Spring Festival. The current slaughter progress is slow, and there is greater pressure on future slaughter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Supply and demand are weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Apples**: - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9535 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.06%. Apple prices in Shandong Yantai Qixia were stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The previous production - reduction expectation was realized, and the market shifted from the supply side to the demand side. Supported by production reduction and low high - quality fruit rate, there is a bottom - line, but the Spring Festival stocking rhythm and alternative fruits limit the upside [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 6700 yuan/ton, and the basis was weakening [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure from domestic new - device production slowed down, and imports were expected to decrease slightly. Demand was in the off - season for agricultural films, and other areas' demand was stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium term, suggest buying on dips [8]. - **PVC**: - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4935, an increase of 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC spot prices declined, and the forward - looking futures prices rose. Supply was at a high level, and demand was seasonally weakening. Social inventory was accumulating [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest a reverse - spread strategy of selling 05 and buying 09 contracts [8]. - **PTA**: - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $923/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 76 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was at a high level, and PTA supply was also high. Polyester factory load decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: PX has a strong price expectation but may face short - term callback pressure. PTA has a seasonal inventory build - up, and it is appropriate to take profits when the processing fee is high [8]. - **Glass**: - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1069, an increase of 0.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices were stable, demand was seasonally weakening, supply decreased, and inventory was accumulating. Downstream enterprises' orders and operating rates were low, and production was in a loss - making situation [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. - **PP**: - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the basis was weakening [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased slightly, and the export window opened. Demand was stable due to national subsidy policies [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: - **Market Performance**: MEG East China spot price was 3798 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 118 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was at a high level, and imports were expected to decrease. Polyester load decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the 05 contract on rallies [9]. - **Crude Oil**: - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fluctuated strongly this week due to cold weather in the US and the risk of military conflict in the Middle East. Next week, prices may fall if the production impact is small [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was large as OPEC+ maintained the non - increase plan, but other countries' production capacity was released. Demand was in the off - season, and inventory was accumulating [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not chase the high price. Consider shorting lightly at high points or buying put options [9]. - **Styrene**: - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated at a high level on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene supply was weak, and styrene supply and demand were both weak. Downstream enterprise inventories were high, but the operating rate increased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, suggest buying styrene on dips or conducting a pure - benzene reverse - spread and buying styrene profit on dips [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1190, unchanged [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash was in a stalemate, and upstream orders were acceptable. Supply was large, and inventory was at a high level. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was weak, with high inventory [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest short - allocating due to increasing supply and weak demand [10].

1月26日，现货黄金首次站上5000美元/盎司，再创历史新高，年内已涨超16%，上涨超过700美元；COMEX黄金同步走强，同创历史新高。截至发稿，现 货黄金还在继续上攻，已突破5080美元/盎司。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室发表最新观点，维持黄金目标价在5000美元/盎司，若地缘局势再度紧张，金价上行风险有望触及5400美元/盎司。此前避险 情绪曾推动金价在1月前三周累计上涨11%，充分体现了其在地缘风险升温背景下的避险属性。 高盛则将黄金今年底目标价从4900美元/盎司上调至5400美元/盎司，理由是私人部门投资者和央行对黄金的需求不断增长。高盛表示，预计各国央行今年 每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。高盛分析师称，各国央行已开始通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限 的黄金。 国内品牌金饰克价近期同样行至历史高位。截至发稿，老庙黄金足金饰品报1575元/克，较1月24日的1548元/克涨27元；周生生足金饰品报1574元/克，较1 月24日的1551元/克涨23元。 在股市方面，1月26日，黄金概念活跃，截至发稿，有6只个股涨停。 | 黄金概念 0 | | | | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the recent Davos Forum and the geopolitical dynamics involving the United States, Europe, and other nations, particularly in the context of international trade and diplomacy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Davos Forum Insights**: The recent Davos Forum highlighted significant geopolitical tensions, with major powers exerting influence over smaller nations, reflecting a complex international landscape that may shape global dynamics by 2026 [1][2][3]. 2. **Trump's Participation**: Trump's attendance at the Davos Forum was characterized as an attempt to disrupt the proceedings, where he boasted about U.S. economic achievements and criticized European nations for their reliance on American military and economic support [3][4][5]. 3. **Economic Performance Claims**: Trump claimed strong economic growth in the U.S. for Q3 and Q4, attributing it to his administration's policies, while also expressing grievances about not receiving a Nobel Peace Prize for his diplomatic efforts [3][4]. 4. **Geopolitical Demands**: Trump expressed intentions to claim Greenland and criticized European nations for their perceived lack of gratitude towards U.S. contributions to global security, framing it as a historical debt owed to the U.S. [6][7][8]. 5. **Tariff Strategy**: The use of tariffs as a tool for negotiation was emphasized, with Trump threatening to impose tariffs on European nations that opposed U.S. demands, reflecting a return to protectionist policies reminiscent of historical figures like McKinley [5][6][7]. 6. **New International Order Proposal**: Trump proposed the establishment of a new international organization, potentially sidelining existing structures like NATO, to better align global governance with U.S. interests [8][9]. 7. **European Reactions**: The response from European leaders was mixed, with some expressing anger and others showing reluctance to confront the U.S. directly, indicating a potential shift in transatlantic relations [12][14][15]. 8. **Canada's Position**: Canadian leaders, particularly Carney, called for middle powers to unite against the dominance of larger nations like the U.S. and to establish new global rules that protect their interests [17][20][21]. 9. **Technological and Energy Concerns**: Discussions included the need for technological advancements and energy independence, with figures like Musk emphasizing the importance of renewable energy and criticizing tariffs that hinder technological progress [31][32][33]. 10. **Globalization Critique**: The narrative around globalization was challenged, with claims that the existing international order is failing and that nations must adapt to a new reality where economic interdependence is weaponized [17][30]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: Trump's rhetoric often invoked historical precedents, suggesting that the U.S. has historically protected Europe and is now seeking compensation for that support [6][7][11]. - **Internal U.S. Dynamics**: The internal political landscape in the U.S. was also a factor, with Trump's statements aimed at solidifying his support base by portraying a strongman image [11][12]. - **Environmental and Energy Policy**: The conversation touched on the rising costs of energy in Europe compared to the U.S., highlighting the challenges faced by European industries due to regulatory burdens and high energy prices [26][27][28]. - **Technological Competition**: The competition in technology, particularly in AI and renewable energy, was noted as a critical area where Europe is lagging behind the U.S. and China, raising concerns about future competitiveness [27][28][29]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and arguments presented during the conference call, reflecting the complex interplay of international relations, economic policies, and the evolving global landscape.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar index is experiencing a significant decline, breaking below the critical level of 97, marking a new low since September of the previous year, with a weekly drop exceeding 1%, the largest since June 2025 [1][2] - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and a trend towards "de-dollarization," leading to a shift of capital from dollar assets to non-dollar currencies and precious metals [2][3] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, and emerging market central banks are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves, which supports the ongoing "de-dollarization" trend [3] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the dollar index shows a clear bearish trend, with short-term moving averages indicating significant downward pressure, and key support levels are focused around the 97.00 mark [4] - Institutions are generally cautious about the short-term outlook for the dollar index, suggesting that the bearish trend is unlikely to reverse unless there is a change in US government policy [4] - Upcoming economic data, such as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and durable goods orders, will be critical in determining the short-term trajectory of the dollar, alongside geopolitical developments [5]

2026年1月21日，尾盘的黄金市场画风突变。 价格从历史高点附近一头栽下来，出现了明显的回调。 到了1月22 日亚洲交易时段，现货黄金一度下跌接近1%，最低触及4772.39美元/盎司，之后才勉强拉回到4820美元附近晃晃 悠悠。 这是过去四个交易日里，黄金第一次收出阴线。 直接触发这场波动的，是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普。 他最近调整了对外策略，做了两件让市场意外的事：第一， 他撤回了原本要对八个欧洲国家加征关税的威胁；第二，他公开排除了用武力夺取格陵兰的可能性。 这个消息 像一针强心剂，瞬间打进了全球市场的血管里。 投资者们的情绪一下子就热了起来。 既然最大的不确定性之一——欧美贸易战升级的风险降低了，那还抱着黄 金这个"避风港"干嘛？ 资金开始从黄金这类避险资产里流出，转头奔向了股票、大宗商品这些被认为收益更高 的风险资产。 黄金的吸引力，在短期内被明显削弱了。 这种情绪变化，也扭转了一种流行的交易策略，叫做"卖出美国"。 之前，因为担心贸易摩擦打击美国经济，不 少投资者在做空美元和美国资产。 现在紧张气氛缓和，大家又开始重新买入美元，美元一强，以美元计价的黄 金自然就承压了。 特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛 ...

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 胡星访 文/图 1月26日，亚市早盘国际现货黄金价格突破5000美元/盎司历史峰值，站上新关口。市场普遍认为当前这 轮黄金牛市始于2019年美联储开启降息周期，黄金价格一路上行，从2000美元接连突破至5000美元关 口，累计涨幅已超250%。多重因素交织，推动金价走出近40多年来最迅猛的行情，市场多空博弈也随 之升级。 （1月26日，亚市早盘破5000美元/盎司） 破5！2020年以来黄金累计涨幅已超 250% 1月26日，国际现货黄金价格盘中触及5000美元/盎司历史峰值，站上破5关口。这场始于2019年的漫长 牛市，并非一蹴而就，多个关键节点成为推动金价突破的重要推手。 公开资料显示，2020年，美联储为首的全球央行实施了史无前例的货币宽松政策，黄金摆脱此前震荡区 间，突破2000美元/盎司，为金价未来持续走牛埋下伏笔。2025年3月14日，金价首次突破3000美元/盎 司整数关口，"按下"年度上涨的"启动键"。彼时美联储释放降息信号，市场预期年内将进入宽松周期， 而地缘风险的常态化强化了黄金"终极避险工具"的属性。多方资本加速涌入黄金市场。 （2000年8月黄金刚刚突破200 ...

Group 1 - The overall market trend for 2026 is expected to be optimistic, driven by a combination of fundamental, liquidity, sentiment, and policy factors [1][2] - China's GDP has surpassed 140 trillion, indicating a strong economic achievement that supports market performance [1] - Despite a recent cooling in market sentiment, the overall bullish sentiment remains high, and the market is currently undergoing a necessary adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that previous bull markets have been characterized by short bursts of activity followed by long periods of adjustment, which negatively impacted investor experiences [3] - The current market environment is being guided towards healthier long-term development through measures such as increased margin requirements and regulatory support [4] - The AI sector remains a key focus for 2026, with strong growth expected in upstream computing power and semiconductor equipment due to expansion and rising demand [5][6] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory in 2026, focusing on new drug platforms and expanding applications for existing treatments [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 去美元化推升金价 | | 铜 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 盘面做多氛围回暖 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲 突有所缓和，金价 ...

地缘波折再起，金银共创新高 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 227/82/4 地缘波折再起，金银共创新高 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周金银市场以地缘风险为主线进行交易，核心焦点在于格陵兰岛争端、美欧贸易关系。 周初，特朗普政府威胁对欧洲八国加征关税以施压格陵兰岛问题，并提及对法国葡萄酒征收200%关税，引发市场对美欧贸易战升级以及极端情 况下发生武力冲突的担忧，避险情绪急剧升温，美国出现股债汇三杀的局面，欧洲股市也受到负向冲击。为应对美国的施压，欧洲丹麦、瑞典等 养老基金宣布抛售美债资产，被市场解读为"美元资产武器化"，且波兰央行宣布购金150吨，进一步强化了去美元化叙事，叠加日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, international precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs. The COMEX gold futures main contract approached the $5,000/ounce mark, and the COMEX silver futures main contract reached a record high of $103/ounce. Platinum and palladium futures prices also followed the upward trend, especially platinum, with the NYMEX platinum futures price surging on Thursday and Friday last week, with a weekly increase of 18.37% [2][5]. - Geopolitical tensions have increased the demand for safe - haven assets, and countries' accelerated "de - dollarization" process and large - scale gold purchases are the main reasons for the continuous record - breaking of precious metal prices. Silver, with higher volatility, has risen by 40% in less than a month this year, and the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio has dropped to 48, a 50 - year low. Given the current volatile geopolitical situation, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The platinum/gold and palladium/gold ratios are still in the low - range, and the platinum/silver and palladium/silver ratios are at historical lows. The catch - up market of platinum and palladium is worth attention [2][8]. - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base on Greenland, and the US - EU relationship is accelerating the "decoupling". The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting on January 27 - 28, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain at 3.50% - 3.75%. Due to the better - than - expected US employment and inflation data recently, the Fed is expected to implement a "dovish pause" or imply a loose tendency in the statement [2][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1,115.64 | 83.32 | 8.07 | 206,580 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1,110.35 | 79.26 | 7.69 | 54,268 | 208,322 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4,983.10 | 382.00 | 8.30 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 24,965 | 2,202 | 9.67 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 24,988 | 2,347 | 10.37 | 436,090 | 3,292,636 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 103.26 | 13.32 | 14.80 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 685.90 | 75.85 | 12.43 | 25,095 | 11,348 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 681.50 | 79.04 | 13.12 | - | - | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2,773.20 | 79.04 | 18.37 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 497.95 | 79.04 | 6.09 | 11,027 | 11,348 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 2,047.00 | 79.04 | 10.86 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Geopolitical events include the US seeking "sovereignty" over the US military base area in Greenland, threatening to retaliate against European countries, and the US dispatching troops to Iran and imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. The selection of the new Fed chairman is in the final stage, and the Polish central bank has approved a plan to buy 150 tons of gold, which will support the gold price [6]. - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is expected to maintain the 3.50% - 3.75% interest rate, and the market expects at least two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the monetary policy clues from the upcoming Fed meeting [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, the fastest growth rate in nearly two years [9]. - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index in November, rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000. The average number of applicants based on the four - week moving average was 201,500, the lowest since January 13, 2024. The number of continued jobless claims, with a one - week lag, slightly decreased to 1.85 million, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week [9]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value of 51.8; the preliminary value of the service PMI remained flat at 52.5, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI slightly rose to 52.8. All three data were slightly lower than expectations [9]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in January slightly rebounded to 49.4, still in the contraction range; the preliminary value of the service PMI dropped to 51.9, lower than expectations. The manufacturing and service PMIs in Germany rebounded more than expected. The French manufacturing PMI rose to a nearly four - year high of 51, but the service PMI sharply slowed down to 47.9 [9]. - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised the economic growth and inflation expectations for the 2026 fiscal year. The Bank of Japan governor said that it will closely monitor the impact of the weakening yen and will buy government bonds to stabilize the market if the long - term bond interest rate rises abnormally [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver, the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver, the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio, the US inflation expectations, the relationships between gold price and various factors such as the US dollar, copper price, VIX index, crude oil price, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US real interest rate, Fed's balance - sheet size, US government debt scale, copper - to - gold ratio, and the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventory and ratio, as well as the non - commercial net positions of platinum and palladium futures and options [14][15][21][29][36][39][41]