2025 年 5 月 28 日 硅铁：需求预期转弱，低位震荡 锰硅：需求预期转弱，低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5452 | -54 | 237,913 | 194,866 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5358 | -62 | 131,129 | 177,670 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5560 | -56 | 2,920 | 15,188 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5616 | -52 | 293,076 | 440,811 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The day - session decline of fuel oil continues, with short - term weak and volatile trends. Low - sulfur fuel oil dropped significantly during the night session, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market strengthened [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2507, the closing price was 2,972 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.14%, and the night - session increase was 0.34%. For FU2508, the closing price was 2,982 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.53%, and the night - session decline was 3.22%. - For LU2507, the closing price was 3,512 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.51%, and the night - session decline was 0.20%. For LU2508, the closing price was 3,505 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session decline was 1.88% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - The trading volume of FU2507 was 541,397, a decrease of 166,483, and the open interest was 123,841, a decrease of 14,474. - The trading volume of FU2508 was 40,399, a decrease of 46,726, and the open interest was 31,619, a decrease of 6,774. - The trading volume of LU2507 was 61,702, a decrease of 17,667, and the open interest was 47,297, a decrease of 5,610. - The trading volume of LU2508 was 46,356, an increase of 822, and the open interest was 64,572, a decrease of 3,179 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil were 28,950, with no change. There were no warehouse receipts for low - sulfur fuel oil and no changes [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore MOPS: The price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 420.5 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 1.89%; the price of low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 488.9 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 0.84%. - Singapore Bunker: The price of high - sulfur was 427.0 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 1.16%; the price of low - sulfur was 500.0 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%. Similar price declines were seen in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU07 - 08 was - 10 yuan/ton, and the spread of LU07 - 08 was 7 yuan/ton. The spread of LU07 - FU07 was 540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan compared to the settlement spread. - The spread between FU2507 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was - 53.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.9 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between LU2507 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was - 5.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.6 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 68.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.0 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil was 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil was also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PX, supply is tight, inventory is decreasing, and the monthly spread remains strong. Hold a long PX and short PTA position. Pay attention to the return of the PX - MX spread. With an increase in the load of a certain PX plant in East China in June and the upcoming commissioning of a new PTA plant of Honggang Petrochemical, the PX supply - demand pattern is tight, so continue the long PX and short naphtha/PTA operation [4]. - For PTA, continue to hold the position of compressing processing fees. The mid - term idea for the monthly spread is to go long on dips. With filament factories reducing loads and overall polyester load dropping to 91%, the production cut exceeds expectations. However, due to the planned maintenance of plants such as Fuhai Chuang in June - July, the inventory is still in a decreasing pattern, and the PTA monthly spread will remain strong [4]. - For MEG, the upside space for the single - side is limited. Go long on PTA and short MEG. There are more unplanned shutdowns and maintenance of MEG plants, and the MEG operating rate has dropped to 58%. As the single - side price of ethylene glycol rebounds and the prices of upstream coal and crude oil fall, especially the profit of coal - based MEG recovers quickly, the willingness to start coal - based MEG plants in the future will significantly increase. The short - term monthly spread is still strong, but further chasing the high is not recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Daily Closing Prices and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6706 with a daily change of 0.5%, PTA at 4740 (0.3% change), MEG at 4387 (- 0.1% change), PF at 6456 (0.4% change), and SC at 3512 (- 0.5% change) [1]. - **Monthly Spreads and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 216 with a daily change of 28, PTA (9 - 1) was 162 (16 change), MEG (9 - 1) was 71 (11 change), PF(7 - 8) was 24 (14 change), and PX - EB07 was - 291 (64 change) [1]. - **Inter - variety Spreads and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread was 381 with a daily change of - 5, PTA09 - MEG09 was 353 (22 change), PTA07 - PF07 was - 1608 (- 4 change), PF07 processing fee on the disk was 825 (14 change), and PTA09 - LU09 was 1325 (32 change) [1]. - **Basis and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PX basis was 199 with a daily change of - 32, PTA basis was 165 (15 change), MEG basis was 135 (10 change), PF basis was - 40 (- 90 change), and the PX - naphtha spread was 268 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Numbers and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipt number was 56308 with a daily change of - 258, ethylene glycol was 10630 (- 20 change), short - fiber was 0 (- 1109 change), PX was 0, and SC was 4029000 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: A 300,000 - ton PX plant in Taiwan, China is restarting after a 45 - day maintenance from April 9. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in East China plans to increase its load to about 90% in June after reducing the load in mid - April. A 400,000 - ton PX plant in South Korea plans to restart around mid - June after shutting down in early February [3]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Guangdong has restarted normally after a maintenance in early May. From May 26 to June 2, the expected arrival volume at Zhangjiagang is about 10,000 tons, at Taicang Pier about 42,000 tons, at Ningbo about 24,000 tons, and at Shanghai about 0 tons, with a total planned arrival at major ports of about 76,000 tons [3]. - **Polyester**: On the 27th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with the average sales estimated at just over 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of several factories were 50%, 45%, 20%, 750%, 50%, 40%, 50%, 30%, 50%, 0%, 200%, 30%, 80%, 40%, 40%, 70%, 30%, 20%, 50%, 40%, 20%, 80% respectively. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber on the 27th improved slightly compared with the 26th, with an average sales of 55% by 3:00 pm, and the sales of some factories were 100%, 60%, 60%, 100%, 30%, 30%, 30%, 40%, 60% [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene is 0, PTA is 0, and MEG is - 1 [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - PX: Unilateral weakness, strong monthly spread, hold long PX and short PTA, focus on PX - MX spread regression, maintain long PX and short naphtha/PTA due to tight supply - demand [4] - PTA: Unilateral weakness, hold PTA processing fee compression positions, mid - term monthly spread is to buy on dips, de - stocking pattern in June - July, monthly spread remains strong [5] - MEG: Limited upside for unilateral price, long PTA and short MEG, short - term monthly spread is strong but not recommended to chase higher [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: On May 26, 2025, PX closed at 6674, PTA at 4724, MEG at 4393, PF at 6430, and SC at 3530. Daily changes were 0.3%, 0.2%, - 0.2%, - 0.3%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - **Monthly Spread**: On May 26, 2025, PX (9 - 1) was 188, PTA (9 - 1) was 146, MEG (9 - 1) was 60, PF(7 - 8) was 10, and PX - EB07 was - 355. Daily changes were 4, - 2, 8, - 2, and 162 respectively [1] - **Inter - variety Spread**: On May 26, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 386, PTA09 - MEG09 was 331, PTA07 - PF07 was - 1604, PF07盘面加工费 was 811, and PTA09 - LU09 was 1293. Daily changes were - 6, 18, 34, - 35, and - 18 respectively [1] - **Basis**: On May 26, 2025, PX basis was 231, PTA basis was 165, MEG basis was 135, PF basis was - 40, and PX - naphtha spread was 268. Daily changes were 33, 15, 10, - 90, and 2 respectively [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 26, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 56308, ethylene glycol were 10630, short - fiber were 0, PX were 0, and SC were 4029000. Daily changes were - 258, - 20, - 1109 respectively [1] Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is restarting, a 9 - million - ton PX unit of a major factory in East China is expected to resume soon, PX price rose, and the valuation on May 26 was 834 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars from last Friday [3] - **PTA**: A 50,000 - ton IPA unit in North China is under maintenance, a 1 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China has restarted [3] - **MEG**: A 1 - million - ton/year EO - EG co - production unit in East China has restarted, a 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Anhui has reduced load, a 150,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in East China stopped, and a 300,000 - ton/year unit in Guizhou is restarting [3][4] - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester unit in Wujiang is restarting, a 200,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East China is under maintenance, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak with an average sales rate of about 30%, and direct - spun polyester staple fiber sales were also weak with an average sales rate of 45% [4] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, PTA trend intensity: - 1, MEG trend intensity: - 1 [5]

Group 1 - Report Title: Zinc: Refinery Disturbances on the Rise, but Sustainability May Be Limited [1] - Analyst: Mo Xiaoxiong, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019413, Email: moxiaoxiong@gtht.com [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,185 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - London Zinc 3M Electronic Disk Closing Price: 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30% [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Trading Volume: 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots [1] - London Zinc Trading Volume: 8,813 lots, an increase of 488 lots [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Open Interest: 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots [1] - London Zinc Open Interest: 212,114 lots, a decrease of 866 lots [1] - Shanghai 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M Premium: -23.51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.01 US dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc Premium: 370 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Import Bill of Lading Premium: 150 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Ingot Spot Import Profit and Loss: -604.23 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.22 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01: 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Continuous Three Import Profit and Loss: -1,071.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.68 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Futures Inventory: 1,774 tons, unchanged [1] - LME Zinc Inventory: 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - 1.0mm Hot - Dipped Galvanized Coil Tax - Included Price: 4,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 73,325 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 Zinc Alloy Price: 73,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,725 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Oxide ≥99.7% Price: 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - News: After Trump postponed 50% tariffs, the EU said that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance quickly." The trade commissioner said on Monday that he had a "good call" with US officials [2] - Zinc Trend Intensity: 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, waiting for the verification of hen culling after the Dragon Boat Festival, but no clear core view is explicitly stated [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,943 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.01%, and trading volume increased by 37,677, while open interest increased by 6,344. The closing price of egg2509 is 3,766 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.11%, trading volume decreased by 1,509, and open interest increased by 1,842 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -637 (previous day: -611), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -823 (previous day: -796) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.95 yuan/jin, 2.64 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The latest corn and soybean meal spot prices are 2,316 yuan/ton and 2,940 yuan/ton respectively, and the latest Henan live - pig price is 14.45 yuan/kg [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with a value range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillating state. Coke is in a bottom - oscillating state, and coking coal is also in a bottom - oscillating state with the environmental protection supervision team stationed [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2509 was 799.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.25%); the closing price of J2509 was 1375 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.58%). The trading volume of JM2509 was 592,256 lots, with a position of 519,485 lots and a decrease of 2,392 lots; the trading volume of J2509 was 21,477 lots, with a position of 55,716 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: For coking coal, the prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the peak - view converted to RMB increased by 41 yuan/ton. For coke, the price of Hebei quasi - dry quenched coke remained unchanged, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory remained unchanged, and the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade price index decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 showed different changes. The spread between JM2509 - JM2601 increased by 5.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2509 - J2601 increased by 8.0 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Price and Position Situation - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The warehouse - pick - up price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,350 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1,305 yuan/ton, 1,305 yuan/ton, 1,190 yuan/ton, and 1,295 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **May 26th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1,030 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 925 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 957 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton [3]. - **Position Situation**: On May 26th, from the position situation of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 5,096 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,463 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 100 lots, and the short positions increased by 185 lots [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke was 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal was 0 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to be volatile due to the upcoming summer consumption peak and OPEC+ production increase. Long - term supply may be in surplus, with prices fluctuating between $55 - 65. Short - term, it is stabilizing and trending to oscillate. SC price range is [445 - 465] [1][4] - **LPG**: Weak due to the suppression of the futures market by increasing warrants and poor downstream profits, although import costs have decreased. Medium - to - long - term, it is expected to continue weakening. PG price range is [4030 - 4080] [1][7] - **L**: Weak as both futures and spot prices are falling, inventory reduction is slowing, and supply is abundant. It is expected to decline on rebounds. L price range is [7050 - 7150] [1][10] - **PP**: Weak as it is in the domestic demand off - season, with new production capacity coming online from May to July. It is expected to decline on rebounds, testing previous lows. PP price range is [6930 - 7030] [1][13] - **PVC**: Weak as cost support is collapsing, new production capacity is planned to be put into operation from May to June, and export is uncertain. V price range is [4820 - 4920] [1][15] - **PX**: Bullish on dips as the supply pressure is relieved by planned maintenance, and the fundamentals are improving in May. PX price range is [6600 - 6780] [1][17] - **PTA**: Bullish on dips as the supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are operating at high levels. TA price range is [4680 - 4800] [1][20] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Bullish as supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance and low arrival volume, and the terminal weaving is performing well. EG price range is [4380 - 4460] [1][22] - **Glass**: Bearish as the macro - risk appetite is decreasing, demand is weak in the rainy season, and the supply is increasing at a low level. FG price range is [990 - 1030] [1][25] - **Soda Ash**: Weak as new production capacity is being put into operation, supply is abundant, demand support is weak, and inventory is high. SA price range is [1250 - 1280] [1][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to correct as supply is increasing while demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. SA price range is [2450 - 2500] [1][30] - **Methanol**: Bearish on rebounds as supply pressure is increasing, demand improvement is limited, and cost support is weak. MA price range is [2220 - 2270] [1][32] - **Urea**: Hold for observation as supply pressure remains high, agricultural demand is in a lull but is expected to pick up, and export is growing. UR price range is [1820 - 1850] [1][35] - **Asphalt**: Volatile and bullish as the cost is dragging down, but downstream demand is relatively optimistic, and inventory is at a low level. BU price range is [3505 - 3545] [1][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On May 23, WTI rose 0.54%, Brent fell 0.36%, and SC fell 1.69%. WTI was at $61.53/barrel, Brent at $64.21/barrel, and SC at 454.7 yuan/barrel [2] - **Basic Logic**: The core drivers are the upcoming summer consumption peak and OPEC+ production increase. Supply: US Chevron's license will expire on May 27, and Saudi Arabia's March production increased slightly while exports decreased. Demand: IEA and EIA expect stable or increasing global oil demand. Inventory: US strategic and commercial crude inventories increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between $55 - 65. Short - term, it is stabilizing and oscillating. Focus on SC [445 - 465] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 23, the PG main contract closed at 4086 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: The cost is oscillating, and the fundamentals are bearish. Warrants increased, and the supply and factory inventory rose. PDH device profit improved slightly, while alkylation device profit decreased. Supply increased, and demand showed mixed trends in different sectors. Inventory: refinery inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Medium - to - long - term, it is expected to weaken. Technically, it is weak. Consider partially closing short positions. Focus on PG [4030 - 4080] [7] L - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices fell. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9] - **Basic Logic**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited support for prices. Import volume has increased, and demand has been over - consumed. Next week, supply is expected to increase, and demand will remain stable. It is expected to decline on rebounds. L price range is [7050 - 7150] [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities [10] PP - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices fell. The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton [12] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve, with strong supply and weak demand. It is in the domestic demand off - season, and new production capacity will be put into operation from May to July. It is expected to decline on rebounds, testing previous lows. PP price range is [6930 - 7030] [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds [13] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 7 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is high as maintenance resumes, and demand is low. Export is expected to weaken. Cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. V price range is [4820 - 4920] [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term [15] PX - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6652 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 27 yuan/ton [16] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by planned maintenance at home and abroad. The PXN spread is high, and gasoline cracking spreads are improving. PTA device maintenance is high, and demand is weakening. Inventory decreased in April but is still high. It is expected to oscillate strongly. PX price range is [6600 - 6780] [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on PX [6600 - 6780] [18] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 4880 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 148 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 164 yuan/ton [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by high - level device maintenance. The processing fee is high, and production and inventory are at high levels. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly. TA price range is [4680 - 4800] [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on TA [4680 - 4800] [20] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 4532 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4403 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 129 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance and low arrival volume. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly. EG price range is [4380 - 4460] [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on EG [4380 - 4460] [23] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, futures prices fell, the basis widened, and warrants decreased [24] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - level risks are increasing, and the domestic economic situation is weakening. Supply is increasing at a low level, and demand is slow to improve. Inventory is high, and companies are focused on de - stocking. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. FG price range is [990 - 1030] [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on FG [990 - 1030]. Be cautious when short - selling, and watch the 1030 resistance level [25] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices decreased, futures prices were weak, the basis narrowed, warrants remained unchanged, and forecasts increased [26] - **Basic Logic**: The commodity market is weak, and the fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. Supply is still abundant despite maintenance, and demand support is weak. Inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. It is expected to be bearish. SA price range is [1260 - 1290] [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on SA [1260 - 1290]. It will fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - and 10 - day moving averages [27] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, futures prices corrected, the basis widened, and warrants remained unchanged [29] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing, with regional differences. Chlor - alkali enterprise profits are declining, and inventory is decreasing. Alumina production capacity is increasing, but the price is weakening. Chlorine prices are low, leading to potential maintenance. It is expected to correct within a range [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided in a clear form Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 2312 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2222 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 68 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing as maintenance devices resume and imports increase. Demand is improving as MTO device operation recovers, but traditional demand is in the off - season. Inventory is increasing. Cost support is weak. It is expected to decline on rebounds. MA price range is [2220 - 2270] [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on MA [2220 - 2270], and sell call options [33] Urea - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1827 yuan/ton. The UR9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, and the Shandong basis was 53 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high as some maintenance devices resume. Agricultural demand is in a lull but is expected to pick up. Industrial demand is neutral, and export is growing. Inventory is increasing. Cost support is weak. It is expected to have limited rebound. UR price range is [1820 - 1850] [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on UR [1820 - 1850] [36] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On May 23, the BU main contract closed at 3516 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [38] - **Basic Logic**: The cost is stabilizing, demand is good with a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly. BU price range is [3505 - 3545] [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Medium - to - long - term, the price center may decline. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Try long positions with a light position. Focus on BU [3505 - 3545] [39]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 26 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：长丝计划检修，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | | 2025-05-21 | 6766 | 4788 | 4414 | 6544 | 3571 | | 2025-05-20 | 6668 | 4732 | 4413 | 6506 | 3556 | | 2025-05-19 | 6752 | 4776 | 4475 | 6544 | 3563 | | 日度变化 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年5月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 4 基本面数据 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货回升，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率回落 中性 现货价格 青岛保税区美元报价 2、基差：现货14700，基差165 偏多 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比减少 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、国内经济逐步复苏 • 2、下游消费高位 • 3、原料价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、市场库存增加 • 3、外部环 ...