Core Insights - The report highlights a potential narrowing of the decline in PPI in the second half of 2025, with June CPI showing a slight improvement to 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [2] - Global manufacturing PMI has rebounded above the growth line, indicating an overall recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in developed economies [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors, particularly those expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies and improving economic conditions [4] Macroeconomic Overview - June CPI in China improved to 0.1% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [2] - Global manufacturing PMI showed a notable increase, with developed markets improving while some emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia showed marginal declines [2] Sector Analysis Fixed Income - The report discusses the impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI and CPI, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices, with CPI expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% by Q4 2025 [5] - The report notes that the demand side remains critical for price elasticity, with industry self-discipline and private enterprise willingness being key factors [5] Machinery and Equipment - The report indicates a recovery in excavator sales, with June sales reaching 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, driven by strong export growth [8] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [8] Agriculture - The report highlights ongoing "anti-involution" efforts in the pig farming industry, which may lead to inventory release and improved profitability for high-quality pig farming companies [9] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may gradually transition to a phase of high-quality competition, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [9] Renewable Energy and Equipment - The report anticipates strong growth for offshore wind energy, with a significant increase in orders expected to drive performance for leading companies in the sector [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and capacity expansion in the offshore wind sector [19] Electronics and Chemicals - The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for Shengquan Group in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand for electronic materials [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth trajectory, supported by favorable market conditions [20] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is rated as a "buy" with a target price of 23.44 HKD, driven by expected production growth and favorable gold price trends [15] - Harbin Electric is also rated as a "buy," with anticipated recovery in equipment demand across various energy sectors [15] - MGM China is highlighted for its strong performance in the non-gaming segment, benefiting from increased tourist traffic and successful entertainment events [17]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar, influenced by Trump's tariffs and rising national debt, is prompting global investors to reconsider their reliance on the dollar [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dollar Decline and Economic Impact - The dollar index fell by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst start since the end of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system [1]. - The US economy is facing significant issues, including a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and a consumer confidence index drop to 93, alongside a national debt exceeding $37 trillion [3]. - The trend of de-dollarization is evident, with BRICS countries increasing their local currency settlements by 47%, and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 58%, the lowest since 1995 [3]. Group 2: Trump's Influence on Dollar Value - Trump's imposition of widespread tariffs during his second term has contributed to the dollar's decline, creating market uncertainty [3][6]. - The weakening dollar is seen as beneficial for US exports, potentially reducing the trade deficit, as it makes American goods cheaper on the international market [6][10]. - Despite the short-term benefits of a weaker dollar, there are concerns that it may undermine the dollar's credibility and accelerate the trend of de-dollarization [6][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current dollar crisis mirrors the events of 1973, when the dollar depreciated due to the end of the gold standard and the oil crisis, leading to global inflation and a significant stock market decline [4]. - The weakening dollar has led to a stronger euro and yen, with capital flowing back to European and Japanese markets, while emerging markets like India attract foreign investment [4].

Group 1: Global Gold ETF Market Overview - The World Gold Council's latest report indicates that global gold ETF assets under management surged by $38 billion in the first half of 2025, a 41% increase from the beginning of the year, reaching a total of $383 billion [1] - Total gold holdings increased by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, with average daily trading volume exceeding $329 billion, setting a historical record for the half-year period [1] - North America emerged as the primary source of inflows into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of $21 billion, accounting for 55% of the global increase [1] Group 2: Regional Insights and Influencing Factors - The inflow of funds into North America was primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and credit risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - In Asia, the demand for gold allocation was closely linked to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the trend of de-dollarization globally, with net inflows of $11 billion [1] - The Chinese market saw its gold ETF scale surpass 100 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with an annual growth exceeding 90 billion RMB, and several products doubling their shares [1] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Investment Trends - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and declining real interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds, significantly enhanced gold's monetary attributes [1] - COMEX gold prices briefly exceeded $3,450 per ounce, with a more than 27% increase in the first half of 2025, driving up the net asset value of gold ETFs [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift, including a 100 basis point rate cut expected for the year, historically correlates with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles, further stimulating investor demand for gold ETFs [2] Group 4: Central Bank Purchases and Product Performance - From January to May 2025, global central banks net purchased 520 tons of gold, with China, India, and Turkey being the top three buyers [2] - The demand from central banks and ETF inflows created a resonance effect, collectively boosting gold demand [2] - There was a performance divergence between physical gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs, with domestic spot gold price-tracking ETFs achieving over 40% returns in the past year [2] Group 5: Market Volatility and Future Outlook - Despite the surge in gold ETF sizes, analysts caution about short-term volatility risks, as international gold prices fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce before dropping to around $3,281 [3] - Factors influencing gold prices include global economic conditions, monetary policies, and geopolitical events, necessitating dynamic portfolio adjustments by investors [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that the Middle East situation will remain a key driver for short-term gold prices, while U.S. Treasury credit issues and ongoing central bank purchases will provide medium-term support [3]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on gold and silver futures from July 7th to July 11th, 2025, covering market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data for both metals [1][2] Gold Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term fluctuations are driven by the dollar and Fed policy expectations, while long - term factors like de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is upward, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, the gold price was mainly influenced by the dollar and Fed policy expectations. Dollar weakness and rising rate - cut expectations drove the price up in the first half of the week, while better - than - expected non - farm data led to a price drop in the second half. Geopolitical risks and inflation data provided intermittent support. In the long run, de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases (95% of central banks plan to increase holdings in 2025) support the price, but short - term data fluctuations and position adjustments should be watched [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 remains bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on Shanghai gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price differences through charts [19][21][23] Silver Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend. Although short - term fluctuations are intensifying, silver shows an upward - moving central tendency due to its "safe - haven + industrial" dual attributes. It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend [31] - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, silver prices fluctuated upward. Bullish factors included weakened dollar credit, Fed rate - cut expectations, resilient industrial demand, and technical breakthroughs. Bearish factors were better - than - expected non - farm data delaying rate cuts and high silver inventories (global visible inventory of 15,523 tons). Despite short - term volatility, the upward - moving central tendency remains unchanged [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows data on Shanghai silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price differences through charts [39][41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The international bond market is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the ongoing issues surrounding U.S. debt, as major economies like China, the U.S., and Japan grapple with rising debt levels and associated risks [1][4][35]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, now holding approximately $750 billion, nearly half of its peak [1]. - The U.S. government debt has reached over $30 trillion, with interest payments skyrocketing to over $1.1 trillion, leading to unsustainable fiscal pressures [8][35]. - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is concerning, with a significant portion of government spending now allocated to interest payments, raising fears of a potential debt crisis [8][21]. Group 2: Credit Rating and Market Demand - The U.S. has seen multiple downgrades in its sovereign credit rating due to political gridlock and rising debt levels, which has diminished investor confidence [10][11]. - A recent auction of U.S. debt saw $72 billion go unsold, indicating a lack of demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [11]. - The Federal Reserve has stepped in to purchase over $40 billion in U.S. debt in May alone, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market [12][13]. Group 3: Japan's Debt Challenges - Japan's debt stands at approximately 1,323 trillion yen (around $9.2 trillion), which is 219% of its GDP, raising significant market concerns [24][35]. - The Bank of Japan has been actively purchasing government bonds to stabilize prices, but this approach is unsustainable in the long term [26][30]. - Japan faces a lack of investment attractiveness due to low bond yields and high credit risk, leading to a potential sell-off in its bond market [29][30]. Group 4: China's Debt Management - China's total debt is approximately 88.1 trillion yuan (around $12.3 trillion), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 65%, which is relatively lower compared to the U.S. and Japan [35][40]. - The Chinese government has been proactive in managing its debt, reducing interest rates to alleviate the burden on borrowers and stimulate economic growth [41]. - Despite challenges such as hidden local government debts, China's economic resilience and growth potential provide a more favorable outlook compared to the U.S. and Japan [41][43].

Group 1: Rise of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency, marking a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][5] - The rapid rise of the Renminbi is attributed to the differences in data sources, with China’s independent Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) facilitating significant trade volumes that bypass Western systems [3][5] - Despite the Renminbi's international reserve share being only 2.18%, its influence in trade financing has surpassed the Euro, indicating a substantial underlying economic strength [5][12] Group 2: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged by internal issues such as the U.S. debt crisis, inflation, and frequent interest rate adjustments, which have eroded investor confidence [9][11] - The U.S. military's perceived inability to maintain global security, as evidenced by conflicts like the Israel-Palestine situation, further diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven currency [11] Group 3: Internal Drivers of Renminbi Growth - China's expansion of trade partnerships, particularly with Russia and African nations, has significantly increased the use of the Renminbi in international trade [12][14] - The Renminbi is viewed as a more stable alternative to the dollar, especially in times of global economic uncertainty, making it an attractive option for countries seeking to diversify their currency reserves [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential decline of dollar hegemony is imminent, but the Renminbi's rise will require sustained efforts to enhance its international influence and the adoption of its payment systems [14][16] - The transition from dollar dominance to a more multipolar currency system will take time, and the Renminbi must continue to build its credibility and usage in global transactions [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces intense pressure regarding interest rate decisions, with significant implications for U.S. debt and economic stability, as political and financial dynamics intertwine [1][3][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a willingness to lower interest rates if inflation is under control, leading to a surge in market expectations for a July rate cut from 18.6% to 77.3% [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment amid political pressures [3][8] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among committee members, with some predicting no rate cuts until 2025, while others foresee at least two cuts, highlighting uncertainty in monetary policy direction [8] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed military spending and rise to $952 billion by 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [1][3] - A report warns that the U.S. debt exhibits characteristics of a "Ponzi scheme," with debt-to-GDP ratio at 123%, significantly above the 60% international warning threshold [6] - The potential for a debt crisis in 2025 is underscored by the need to refinance $9.3 trillion in maturing debt, which constitutes one-third of total public debt [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's comments, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.11%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating a strong market reaction to the prospect of rate cuts [4] - Economic indicators present a mixed picture, with a healthy unemployment rate of 4.2% contrasted by rising initial jobless claims and a significant drop in consumer confidence [6][8] - The impact of tariffs under Trump's policies is projected to increase inflation, with potential long-term economic consequences [6][8] Group 4: Global Economic Context - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with central banks globally reducing their dollar reserves, leading to a 57.4% share of dollar reserves, the lowest in 30 years [6] - The shift towards gold as a reserve asset is evident, with countries like Poland, China, and Turkey increasing their gold holdings, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [6][10] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are seen as critical in determining the future of the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [10]

Market Activity - The A-share market remains active with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 19 consecutive trading days as of June 24, indicating sustained investor enthusiasm [1] - The margin trading balance in the A-share market has been above 1.8 trillion yuan for 15 consecutive trading days in June, reaching 18,220.06 billion yuan, which accounts for 2.25% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - In June, there were 12 trading days where the margin buying amount exceeded 100 billion yuan [1] Margin Trading Trends - A brokerage firm in East China reported a month-on-month increase in margin trading balances since the beginning of the year, with a notable rise in high-value clients [3] - Margin trading balances are used to gauge market activity and investor sentiment, with a peak of 19,460.86 billion yuan in March, the highest since 2015 [4] - Following a decline in April, margin trading has stabilized between 1.7 trillion and 1.8 trillion yuan since May [4] Sector Preferences - The top five sectors favored by margin trading funds from June 16 to June 23 include electronics, non-bank financials, computers, biomedicine, and power equipment, with respective market value shares of 3.17%, 2.75%, 4.29%, 2.71%, and 2.91% [4] - Recent stocks with significant increases in margin balances include Haike Xinyuan, Chizheng Co., Huawai Design, Yihua New Materials, and Yishi Precision [4][5] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent recovery in leveraged funds indicates increased investor confidence in the market [5] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with improving performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as well as stablecoin concept stocks that have recently gained traction [6] - The outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of foreign capital inflows and a focus on high-quality companies in finance, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [7] Investment Strategies - Key investment themes for the second half of the year include the recovery of the real estate cycle, overlooked consumer demand, and increased capital expenditure in high-tech sectors [8] - Recommended investment opportunities include financials with high dividends, emerging technology sectors, and cyclical consumer goods that are expected to benefit from improved competition and supply-demand dynamics [8] - The Chinese equity market is anticipated to outperform overseas markets, with strong policy support for growth sectors likely to attract more attention to emerging high-growth areas [8]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 贵金属市场周报 联储释放鹰派信号，金价短期持续承压 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：受美元走强以及强于预期的鹰派美联储基调影响，本周贵金属市场震荡走弱。政策面上， 美联储于6月18日维持利率按兵不动，并在最新点阵图中维持今年两次降息的中位预期，但鲍威尔强 调关税对通胀的传导性或令未来降息路径更为缓慢，本次较为鹰派的发言短线提振美元并施压金价。 近期多项美国经济数据展现疲软态势，进一步加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。美国5月零售销售、房 地产和工业产出均弱于预期，零售销售环比下降、房屋开工和制造业产出出现回落，凸显经济活动 正面临明显放缓；此外，上周初请失业金人数意外攀升，也暗示劳动力市场韧性有所减弱，经济数 据走弱也将为美联储未来降息提供依据。世界黄金协会发布的调查显示，73家央行中有76%预计未来 五年将持续增持黄金以分散对美元资产的依赖，凸显 ...

国盛证券表示，5月美国CPI录得2.4%，低预期的通胀和高频就业数据的走弱使得市场定价美联储降 息，美债利率下滑推动黄金上涨。此外，中东地缘局势出现新的转折点，市场避险情绪推升国际金价打 破盘整震荡行情走势，金银比出现了一定成的回升，黄金将再次反弹至高位。 东吴证券指出，过去一周美元指数下行叠加地缘冲突加剧，黄金录得环比大幅上行。展望未来，若中东 地缘冲突进一步恶化导致原油价格上行，叠加我们预计美国再通胀进程将显著加快，黄金或持续受益于 实际利率的下行。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 金价走强背景下，相关黄金ETF方面，上海金ETF（159830）盘中涨0.65%，成交额超1400万元。 上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金（SHAU.SGE）；费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率 0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。该ETF还配置 了场外联接基金（联接A：014661，联接C：014662）。 消息面上，据中国证券报，受中东地缘局势危机影响，近日国际原油、黄金价格携手 ...