| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。5 月美农报告偏 | | | | 利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情绪，但实际减产预计有 | | | | 限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。昨日豆粕高位整 | | | | 理，关注技术短空机会。凌晨美农 6 月报告中性，美豆调整。主力【3025，3070】 | | | 至 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。5 月 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

生猪劲升、自糖续跌 一、农产品板块综述 生猪大幅上涨,受到猪肉收储消息的提振,或带动屠企加大收猪 力度,亦推动多头在盘面上积极增仓买入,支撑猪价走高,但养殖端 存栏高企或令后续上升空间受限。白糖持续下跌,外盘弱势拖累郑糖 走低,因巴西榨糖节奏加快,印度和泰国糖产量前景较好,外盘原糖 承压下挫,带动郑糖走跌。鸡蛋弱势下行,蛋鸡存栏高企和需求偏弱 令期价承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)生猪:强劲上涨 焦点关注:生猪 2509 合约大幅上涨,继续受到收储消息提振: 1. 由于1万吨收储来袭,释放了稳猪价稳信心的利好信号,对 市场信心恢复有较大的提振作用,避免养殖端恐慌性抛售,且能够带 动屠企加大收猪力度,给猪价提供支撑。多头买盘积极,助推生猪期 价当日大幅上涨。 2.生猪主力 2509 合约大涨报收长阳,期价站上 20 日均线,MACD 红柱扩大,技术强势,策略上轻仓多单,生猪主力2509合约支撑13560, 阻力 13880。 (二)白糖:持续下跌 2. 国内市场油脂总库存大幅增加,中国粮油商务网数据显示, 截至第 23周末,国内三大油脂总库存 215.04 万吨,同比增加 13.89%, 棕榈油库存为 34 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约今日仍然移仓,价格反弹。今日中储粮油脂竞价采购国产大豆全部流拍,采购顶价为 4300~4350元/吨。企业贸易量竞价销售也全部流拍，竞价底价为4350元/吨。国产大豆价格跟进口大豆和谷物价 格均走强。进口大豆方面欧洲气象中心的集合预报显示,从最新的6月份报告来看显示出大豆生长期的关键 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% from June 1 - 10, 2025, while Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be supported but may still face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season. Short - term palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7][20]. - The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans has a positive impact. The ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is favorable for the soybean market [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented, along with their price changes and exchange rate information for multiple currencies [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are provided, along with import soybean quotes from different regions [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook for US Soybean - Producing States**: From June 15 - 19, rainfall in US soybean - producing states is expected to be above normal, and temperatures will be higher than the median. The Midwest will experience a wet pattern, with different rainfall and temperature conditions in the east and west. This weather is expected to affect crop growth [3][5]. - **Palm Oil Production Data**: From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 17.24%, with a 16.71% decrease in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports**: Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovering after a temporary decline at the beginning of the year [7]. - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending June 5, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 10 - 700,000 tons, with different expectations for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [7]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold a total of 1.8811 million tons of soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 60.2493 million tons [8]. - **EU and UK Rapeseed Production**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast for the EU 27 and the UK remains at 20.4 million tons, but there is still a drought risk in Poland [8]. - **Russian Oilseed Exports**: In the first 5 months of this year, Russian oilseed exports decreased by 22% year - on - year to 1.071 million tons, with different changes in the exports of various oilseeds [9]. - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: The index rose to a nearly 7 - month high, with increases in the freight rates of various types of ships [9]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.6%. US CPI data for May was lower than expected, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed. There are also data on US Treasury auctions, mortgage applications, and EIA inventory [15][16]. - **Domestic News**: On June 11, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards. The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5.09 billion yuan. In May, the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market decreased year - on - year [18][19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In May, Malaysian palm oil ending stocks increased by 6.65% to 1.99 million tons. Production, exports, and imports increased, while consumption decreased. The price is expected to be supported but may face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season [20]. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is positive for the market [21]. 06 Fund Flows - On June 11, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 3.484 billion yuan, with 2.151 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural products, chemicals, black series, and metals) and 1.333 billion yuan in stock index futures. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures varieties [23][24].

现货购销良好，豆粕维持震荡 农产品日报 | 2025-06-12 粕类观点 近期市场资讯，巴西植物油行业协会发布月度评估报告，维持对巴西2025年大豆产量、出口量和加工量的预测不 变，但是下调了巴西大豆和豆油的平均出口价格。将2025年巴西大豆出口均价预期下调至405美元/吨，较上月预测 低10美元/吨；同时将豆油出口均价预期下调35美元/吨至1015美元/吨。 市场分析 国内方面，随着巴西大豆的大量到港，国内油厂开机率迅速提升，豆粕库存也从之前的低位迅速上升，预计未来 豆粕累库节奏还将进一步加快。整体来看，短期内巴西升贴水的上升将一定程度上对豆粕有所支撑，但大豆整体 较为宽松的供应格局仍未改变，未来需重点关注巴西升贴水的变化情况、美豆种植区的天气情况以及政策端的变 化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 市场要闻与重要数据 风险 政策变化 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3047元/吨，较前日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.53%；菜粕2509合约2638元/吨，较前 日变动+9元/吨，幅度+0.34%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M09-87， 较前日变动+4；江苏地区豆 ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | 原 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8080 | 8140 | -60 | -0.74% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7390 | 7434 | -44 | -0.59% | | 泉差 | Y2509 | ୧୦୦ | 706 | -16 | -2.27% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8450 | 8600 | -150 | -1.74% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7898 | 7998 | -100 | -1 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆下跌，贸易缓和情绪消退，市场交易美豆产区天气较好三限制涨幅。周三国内豆粕现货跟涨期 货，华东低价报 2850 元/吨，国内豆粕成交昨日放量，远月成交较多，开机率较高，提货较好，下游仍 在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势，不过由于前期开机延迟等，油厂库存压力相对后 移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西升贴水涨跌互现，或因销售进度偏慢，但雷亚尔升 值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰动使得总产量容易下调，美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱 动，新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易 ...

棕榈油、白糖大跌 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油大跌,因马来西亚棕榈油产量大增至历史同期高位,供应 增大压力令棕油下挫,国内棕油库存上升,需求偏弱,连棕油大幅下 跌,后市科有续跌空间。白糖亦加速下跌,受到外盘原糖大跌的拖累, 因巴西自糖压榨进度加快,产量增大,同时亚洲糖主产国产量前景较 好,压制外盘大跌,带动郑糖扩大跌幅,弱势料持续。玉米冲高回落, 期价在连续上涨至高位后,多头获利回吐令期价高位调整,但涨势尚 未改变,后市料高位波动。豆粕持续震荡上行,因进口大豆成本上升, 油厂压榨利润下滑后挺价豆粕,豆粕偏强波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到产地增产增大 压力: 1.马来西亚棕榈油总署 MPOB 发布的月度供需报告显示,马来西 亚 5 月棕油产量增长 5.05%至 177 万吨,处于历史同期接近最高位, 季节性增产效应明显。马棕榈油 5 月库存亦增 6.65%至 199 万吨,为 去年 9 月以来最高位,出口则大幅增加 25.6%至 139 万吨,同时进口 也有较大增幅,产量和进口激增抵消了出口的增长。棕榈油后续月份 产量预计逐月增加,给棕榈油 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米继续减仓上行，近月期价跟随现货上涨，近月领涨、远期合约跟涨， 坚挺，低价出货意向稍显一般。东北深加工主流收购价格与产区基本顺价，对行 上调 10-20 元/吨。前期到货的东北粮源陆续消化完毕，华北本地小麦开始收割 上市，贸易商主要开始小麦的收割。周末河南地区启动小麦最低保护价收购政策。 | 震荡 | | | 长阳线打破近期慢涨模式。现货市场方面，东北产区余粮有限，贸易商心态较为 | | | | 情也暂无明显不利影响。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏强运行，深加工企业普遍 | | | 玉米 | 周末销区市场玉米价格继续稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂无较大变化，新季小麦 | | | | 继续上市，各企业关注小麦价格较多，小麦与玉米到部分饲料厂基本同价，小麦 | | | | 替代优势较大。技术上，玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场，期价快速拉升，现货 | | | | 强势对期货的提振体现出来，近月率先领涨，近远月价差拉大。其后，远月跟随 | | | | 近月上行，在玉米和淀粉的对比 ...