农产品日报 | 2025-12-17 关注疫病风险，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11350元/吨，较前交易日变动+45.00元/吨，幅度+0.40%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+250，较前交易日变动-35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.79元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH03+440，较前交易日变动-95；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+900，较前交易日变动-45。 据农业农村部监测，12月16日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.72，比昨天上升0.06个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.66，比昨天上升0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.40元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉66.00元/ 公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉62.64元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.45元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.70元/公 斤，比昨天下降1.7%。 市场要闻与重要数据 期货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生柴 和出口政策，欧盟相关政策 变化，国内到港和库存，替代 需求 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2220 -8 -0.36% 353,327 -10.99% 455,962 -7.17% 2238 -6 -0.27% 86,476 -3.96% 436,006 -0.62% 2265 -2 -0.09% 8,896 19.62% 36,497 5.69% 2502 -11 -0.44% 92,011 11.00% 138,662 -5.45% 2545 -10 -0.39% 6,605 35.69% 25,827 8.96% 2594 -14 -0.54% 206 34.64% 1,217 2.79% 期货盘面 C2601 C2605 C2509 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 CS2605 CS2509 现货与基差 CS2601 青冈 松原嘉吉 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2070 2160 2310 2290 2300 2390 2440 0 0 0 0 -20 -10 -10 -195 -105 45 25 62 125 175 龙凤 中 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米主力 2603 合约领跌，近远月合约跟跌。当日，玉米 1 月合约减仓约 5 万手，主力 2603 合约增仓下行，3、5 月合约受制于周度均线压制，期价呈现调 | | | | 整表现。现货市场中，农户惜售延续，期价调整烘干塔出粮意愿增加。周末东北 | | | | 玉米价格有再次拉升迹象，深加工到货量减少企业收购价格有所提升，基层售粮 | | | 玉米 | 积极性略有所减弱。周末销区市场玉米价格无较大变化。目前终端需求疲软，饲 | 震荡下行 | | | 料销售情况一般，下游企业多按需采购 。港口贸易商报价偏弱，市场购销活跃 | | | | 度一般，成交可小幅议价。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压 | | | | 力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。周初，玉米呈现技术调整要求，预计远期价格 | | | | 延续调整表现。 周一，CBOT 大豆触及七周低点，农产品市场普遍遭遇抛售。市场在持续担忧美 | | | | 国出口步伐和巴西丰产预期的情况下继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on December 12, with significant movements in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Sugar Futures - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.68%, closing at 15.10 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Futures - Cotton futures decreased by 0.22%, closing at 63.83 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Futures - Cocoa futures rose by 0.14%, closing at $6,297.00 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Futures - Coffee futures fell by 1.77%, closing at 369.55 cents per pound [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Industry**: Agricultural products - **Date**: December 12, 2025 - **Researcher Team**: Yulanlan, Linzhenlei, Wanghaifeng, Hongchenliang, Liuyouran [3][4] 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: The three major oils are showing divergent trends. Palm oil lacks driving forces, continuing its weak and volatile trend and is expected to continue to bottom out, with a focus on short - term short positions; rapeseed oil is policy - driven, and currently, with inventory depletion and tight spot supply, it is advisable to take light long positions; soybean oil is fluctuating in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan/ton, with limited upside due to high inventory [9]. - **Hogs**: In terms of spot, supply and demand are both increasing, but the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is weak, and prices may fluctuate slightly upward. In the futures market, the supply of hogs is expected to increase slightly, but there is double supply pressure from second - round fattening and capacity release, putting pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, due to the large price decline compared to last year and the increase in the northern epidemic, the bottom - shock frequency has increased. It is recommended that futures investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they sell [103]. - **Corn**: On the supply side, the willingness of farmers in the Northeast to hold back sales has decreased, and the sales progress is over 30%, with port inventories slightly increasing. On the demand side, feed demand is good, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has rebounded. Spot prices may fluctuate, while futures prices may fluctuate upward, especially for contracts after 2605. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [144][145][146]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term rebound of soybean meal is short - cycle, and considering the abundant supply in most areas and the lack of obvious external bullish factors, it is advisable to try short positions on rallies in the short - term, and expect narrow - range fluctuations in the medium - term [151]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate slightly. Futures prices of near - term contracts are dominated by bears, and new short positions can focus on the 02 contract. Long positions can focus on entering the market for far - term contracts after the correction [191]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, cotton prices will maintain a relatively strong trend, and the pressure level will gradually move upward. The supply side has limited changes, and the demand side has improved slightly, with downstream spinning mills having acceptable profits and cash flows [215]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar index is in a sideways shock, and the Zhengzhou sugar index has fallen significantly. Indian and Thai production increases are suppressing sugar prices. In the domestic market, new sugar is on the market in large quantities, with increased production, import volume, and weak consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in supply and demand and policies [241][242]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Market Review**: Palm oil is in a volatile adjustment, with Malaysian inventories reaching a six - and - a - half - year high in November. Soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range shock, and rapeseed oil has large fluctuations [8][9]. - **Core Points**: - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the price of East China Grade I soybean oil remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan/ton, the price of East China Grade III rapeseed oil increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10,020 yuan/ton, and the price of South China 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 8,580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4294 million tons, a weekly decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.06% [22]. - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: The soybean processing volume and operating rate of domestic oil mills decreased this week. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports increased slightly, and it is estimated that the inventory will decrease next week. The operating rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost zero, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports remained unchanged [25][26][33]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the inventory will increase in December. The production of Brazilian palm oil is expected to break through 20 million tons for the first time this year [35][36]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds continued to go long on Chicago soybeans and short on Chicago soybean oil in early November [48]. Hogs - **Market Review**: Spot prices first weakened slightly and then strengthened. Futures prices of the main contract LH2603 fluctuated upward after rising and falling [50][51]. - **Fundamental Overview**: - **Long - Term Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows is relatively stable, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishing binary sows is average. According to different data sources, the theoretical pig slaughter volume will show different trends in the future [60][61][62]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The price of piglets has increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises' piglets decreased in November. The theoretical pig slaughter volume will increase slightly in the medium - term [74]. - **Short - Term Supply**: The inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased in November. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the enthusiasm for second - round fattening decreased in November [76][77]. - **Current Supply**: The actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week [84][85]. - **Import Supply**: In October, China's pork imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [90]. - **Second - Round Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for second - round fattening replenishment is generally low, and the cost has increased [92][94]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises increased this week, and the slaughter volume in October increased significantly year - on - year [97]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices generally moved upward. Futures prices of the main contract 2603 fell by 1.5% [105]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - **Corn Supply**: The sales progress has accelerated, and the overall is faster than the same period last year. The inventory in northern ports decreased by 110,000 tons, and the inventory in southern ports decreased by 202,000 tons [108][109][111]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices fluctuated weakly this week, and the price difference between wheat and corn is 205 yuan/ton [112]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In October, the import of most grains increased year - on - year. The import of corn was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.1%. The import of other grains showed different trends [113]. - **Feed Demand**: In October, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The inventory days of feed enterprises increased [128][134]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased [137][138]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn production is expected to increase by 1.72% to 300 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 116 tons to 299.02 million tons [141][143]. Soybean Meal - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestion**: Spot prices rose slightly. Futures prices of US soybeans fell after a high - level shock, and domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market. It is advisable to try short positions on rallies in the short - term and expect narrow - range fluctuations in the medium - term [149][150][151]. - **Core Points**: - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA December report made few changes to US soybeans. The planting area decreased, the yield per unit increased, and the ending inventory decreased slightly. The estimated production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans is high. The planting progress in Brazil is normal, and the weather is favorable; the planting in Argentina is in the middle and late stages, and the weather is relatively dry [152][153][154]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of November 13, the export shipments and net sales of US soybeans decreased year - on - year. China's procurement of US soybeans has not yet reached the expected level [162]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit is negative. The operating rate and pressing volume are expected to decline. The import of soybeans in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the port inventory is expected to decrease [167][168]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: The inventory of domestic main oil mills decreased this week. The high - volume transactions in the past were mainly due to hedging against trade uncertainties [177]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The basis of the 01 contract is at a relatively low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened [184]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 11, 2025, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 23,830 lots, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [188]. Eggs - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestion**: Spot prices stabilized and rebounded slightly. Futures prices were relatively weak, especially for the near - term 01 contract. New short positions can focus on the 02 contract, and long positions can focus on far - term contracts [191]. - **Data Summary**: - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period of history, and the replenishment momentum is weak. The proportion of different - age laying hens and egg sizes has changed [192][193][194]. - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: Egg prices increased slightly, feed costs remained stable, and breeding profits were at a very low level [198]. - **Culled Hens**: The number of culled hens decreased, the culling age advanced, and the price was at a low level in the same period of history [202]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Hog Prices**: Egg sales are at a low level in the same period of history, inventory is slightly higher than normal, and hog prices are at a low level in the same period of history [206]. Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestion**: The USDA monthly report was slightly bearish, and Zhengzhou cotton prices moved upward after adjustment. The spot market was warming up, and the downstream market was generally trading [213][214]. - **Core Points**: - **Main Cotton - Producing Countries**: The USDA December report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation. The beginning inventory increased slightly, the production and consumption decreased slightly, and the ending inventory increased slightly [216]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of November 13, the net signing and shipment of US cotton decreased week - on - week, and the cumulative signing decreased year - on - year, while the cumulative shipment increased year - on - year [223]. - **Textile Enterprises Operation**: The cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of weaving enterprises remained stable. The load indexes of yarn and grey cloth remained unchanged [225]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased [236]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 10, the non - commercial net long position of cotton decreased. As of December 11, the number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [238]. Sugar - **Market Review**: The raw sugar index was in a sideways shock, and the Zhengzhou sugar index fell significantly. Domestic spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and inter - month spread changed [241][242][244]. - **Core Points**: - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In the first half of November 2025, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and the proportion of sugar production decreased. The cumulative production and ethanol sales in the current season showed different trends [249][250]. - **Price Relationship and Import Profit**: The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil is higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The inter - month spread of London white sugar and New York raw sugar is at a level that causes a slight loss for processing enterprises. The import processing profit has declined [254][256][257]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of November 10, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar increased [257].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | なな☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 五米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆从高位回落,盘面也在进行移仓。本周进口大豆方面市场担心通过进度放缓带动豆类价格走强，国产 大豆也被带动,价格冲高之后高位出现获利了结。本周政策端购销双向全部成交,成交均价在4110元/吨。国产 大豆现货端坚挺稳定,市场参与主体也在收购大豆。短期持续关注政策和现货端的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal remains unchanged, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. Without significant news, soybean meal prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened effective supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the selling progress may accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2323 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US data: In October 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons. The soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, an 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] 3.1.2. Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. Without new news, soybean meal prices will fluctuate. High US soybean import costs require attention to import volume and South American weather [2] 3.1.3. Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2. Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2523 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Brazilian data: Thanks to abundant rainfall, the planting of the first - season corn crop in some Brazilian states is progressing rapidly. As of December 5, the national first - season corn sowing was 71.3% complete [3] 3.2.2. Market Analysis - Supply side: The selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened supply. As prices rise and holidays approach, selling may accelerate. Demand side: Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3.2.3. Strategy - Neutral [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： 周四，CBOT大豆波动不大，因美豆出口数据低迷以及部分机构小幅下调巴西大豆产量预估。美国农业 部公布，民间出口商报告向中国出售了26.4万吨大豆，向未知目的地出售18.6万吨玉米和22.6万吨大 豆，均于2025/2026年度交付。本周向中国已经累计大单销售40万吨，向未知地累计大单通报38.5万 吨，均为25/26年度付运。不过，出口销售数据低迷。截至上周，2025/2026年度大豆出口净销售为69.6 万吨，前一周为51.1万吨，低于去年同期。国内方面，蛋白粕继续反弹，近强远弱格局凸显。豆粕涨幅 超过菜粕。市场有消息称海关将延长进口大豆通关时间，引发了市场对大豆类产品将加速去库存的预 期，进而带动豆粕价格上涨。策略上，短线为主。 油脂： 周四，BMD棕榈油小幅上涨，跟随周边走强。高频数据显示，马棕油12月1-10日出口量环比减少15%， 但同期单产环比上月同期增加7.24%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.07%，产量环比上月同期增加6.87%。 减产预期的下降引发了市场担忧，限制了马棕价格涨幅。美豆油下挫，跟随原油走低，此外，生物柴油 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月11日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨0.23%报1093.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.56%报446.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨0.94%报 534.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...