2025 年 8 月 4 日 美豆出口需求疲软 连粕或震荡运行 豆粕周报 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌33.75收于988美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅3.30%；豆粕09合约跌11收于3010元/吨，跌幅0.36%；华 南豆粕现货跌10收于2870元/吨，跌幅0.35%；菜粕09合约 收于2675元/吨，持平于上一周；广西菜粕现货跌30收于 2530元/吨，跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The bean meal futures price showed a weak oscillation. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas of the United States is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. Macro - factors are significantly disturbing, and the Sino - US trade relationship is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of bean meal remains loose due to high soybean arrivals and rising inventory. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean meal imports, and policy changes [2] - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors, the shipments of traders have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [5] Summary According to the Directory Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of bean meal in Tianjin was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged. Consultancy Datagro predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 183 million tons, while USDA predicts 175 million tons [1] Market Analysis - The bean meal futures price was weakly oscillating. The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas is beneficial to soybean growth. Macro - factors are disturbing, and the Sino - US trade relationship is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of bean meal remains loose due to high soybean arrivals and rising inventory. Future attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean meal imports, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.86%). Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of July 30, 2025/26, Ukraine's grain exports were 1297000 tons, with 613000 tons of corn and 191000 tons of barley. In the 2024/25 season, Ukraine exported 40.6 million tons of grain. Brazil's corn exports in July 2025 are expected to be 4.18 million tons, and the full - year export is expected to reach 42 million tons [3][4] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. On the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors, the shipments of traders have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the main corn contract reduced positions and adjusted. The funds of the September contract shifted to the January contract. The bearish factor of good weather during the growth period influenced market sentiment, and the corn futures price showed a weak performance. Northeast corn prices remained stable, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market was relatively limited. In the Northeast production area, there was a small amount of supply, and the downstream trading activity was poor. In North China, corn prices generally showed a stable - to - strong trend. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton this week, but was suppressed by the technical resistance level and then declined again. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 2300 yuan/ton support for the September contract, and a medium - term downward trend is expected [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed at the lowest level since April due to favorable crop weather in the US for a bumper harvest and sufficient global supply. Domestic protein meal prices declined as domestic commodities generally fell and funds withdrew from the market. The Sino - US negotiation maintained the suspension of the 24% tariff, but did not mention soybean purchases, which led to concerns about the long - term supply of soybean meal. Strategically, soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly, and investors can participate in the 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell, ending a two - day upward trend. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.7% - 9.6% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, leading to an increase in export tariffs. Domestically, the market sentiment was weak, and the futures prices of oils declined. The decline in the outer market led to a decrease in import costs, which also pressured the prices. The inventory of palm oil was limited, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased. The oils market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, which was conducive to restoring import profits. Strategically, short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, influenced by surrounding commodities, the egg futures price oscillated and closed down. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The short - term fundamental situation was still bearish, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. In the future, as the egg market enters the peak season, demand will have a positive impact on egg prices. However, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than that of last year [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract 2509 oscillated during the session and finally closed flat. The spot price of pigs increased slightly. As pig prices continued to adjust, the mentality of farmers to support prices became stronger, and the slaughter volume decreased. The policy provided support for pig prices, so a short - term oscillating trend is expected. Attention should be paid to whether the short - term rebound in spot prices can continue and the impact of market sentiment changes on the futures market after the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Market Information - Argentina reduced the export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [4]. - As of July 23, the national average ex - factory price of pigs was 14.78 yuan/kg, a 1.20% decrease from July 16, and the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, a 1.12% decrease from July 16 [4]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that Indian vegetable oil importers were increasing palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season as global prices declined [4]. - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 was 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to suspend the designated rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of Sichuan Grain and Oil Wholesale Center Direct - affiliated Reserve Depot Co., Ltd. and Central Reserve Grain Sichuan Xinjin Direct - affiliated Depot Co., Ltd., and resume the rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of China Grain Reserves (Hefei) Reserve Co., Ltd. It also added Chengdu Grain Group Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery warehouse and COFCO Oils (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery factory warehouse [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][9][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][15][19][25][27]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times Best Futures Analyst Awards for many years [29]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant awards for many years [29]. - Kong Hailan, a master of economics, is currently a researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on July 31, with most contracts showing an upward trend [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures decreased by 0.55%, closing at 990.25 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.36%, closing at 413.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a slight increase of 0.05%, closing at 524.00 cents per bushel [1]

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力合约减仓调整，9 | 月合约资金向 | 1 | 月转移，1 | 月是新玉米集中上 | 市期，生长期天气良好的利空因素左右市场情绪，玉米期价呈现偏弱表现。东北 | | | | | | | 玉米价格仍以平稳为主，进口玉米拍卖但对市场的影响已相对有限。东北产区目 | 前能零星上量，下游购销活跃度偏差，对市场的支撑也稍显一般。中美双方将继 | | | | | | | | | | | 续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 | 24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 | 90 | 天，关税 | 较前期暂无变化。华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。山东深加工企业早间剩 | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 余车辆继续减少，部分企业价格窄幅上调 | 10-20 | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工企业 | 玉米价格维持稳定。基层余粮不多，但大部分人看涨预期 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are likely to gradually rise, with the domestic palm oil following the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The key level for the domestic palm oil market is 9,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, international oil prices enhance its attractiveness in biodiesel, but CBOT soybeans may drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil prices are expected to rise after August [1]. 2. Meal - US soybeans remain weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. However, the supply after October is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract has strong upward pressure. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended [5]. 4. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is relatively stable, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium to long term, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and relatively loose in the fourth quarter [8]. 5. Sugar - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but a bearish view is maintained overall. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is expected to be marginally loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 6. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. 7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. Some areas may see a decline in egg prices next week, but the spot price still has some upward space [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 30, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,420 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8,240 yuan, up 0.17%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 35.07% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan on July 30, up 0.78%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis difference increased by 116.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 30, up 0.94%. The futures price of O1509 was 9,621 yuan, up 1.36% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,890 yuan on July 30, up 1.40%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,010 yuan, up 0.91%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 36.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,620 yuan on July 30, up 3.56%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,735 yuan, up 2.82% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,153 yuan, up 0.22% [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the main contract decreased by 500.00%. The price of the 2511 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the 2509 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [5]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 13,880 yuan, down 200.0 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.61%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,312 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.43%. The basis difference decreased by 20.83%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8.05% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,683 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.64%. The basis difference decreased by 121.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 24.29% [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.13%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,804 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The ICE raw sugar price decreased by 0.60% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning remained at 6,050 yuan. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.87%, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.89% [12]. 6. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,755 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.22%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The ICE cotton price decreased by 0.24% [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,343 yuan, down 0.57%. The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% [14]. 7. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,570 yuan/500KG on July 30, down 0.17%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,271 yuan/500KG, down 2.33% [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price remained at 3.20 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 6.64%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.53% [16][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for apples: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for red dates: Neutral - bullish [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple market: The overall apple spot market remains sluggish, but the remaining inventory is at a historical low, which provides some support for prices. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the game between merchants' price - pressing and fruit farmers' acceptance, as well as the price performance of early - maturing apples in the western region after centralized listing [2][3] - Red date market: The second - crop flower setting of new - season red dates is better than expected, and the extent of the yield reduction needs to be re - evaluated. The overall inventory in the sales area is at a high level in recent years, and the current is the traditional off - season. The futures and spot prices may fluctuate strongly in the follow - up, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,908 yuan/ton, a change of - 144 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.79% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Apple - Market Analysis - Inventory: The remaining inventory in the warehouse is small, and some production areas are basically cleared. The off - season for sales area shipments continues [2] - New - season early - maturing apples: Paper - bag Qinyang is gradually on the market, with limited supply of red fruits and firm prices [2] - Sales area: The shipment of apples in the wholesale market in the sales area is still slow, and seasonal fruits continue to divert apple sales [2] Apple - Strategy - Given that the remaining inventory in the production area is at a low level and the expected yield in the new production season changes little compared with last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [3] Red Date - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10,790 yuan/ton, a change of + 95 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.89% [4] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Red Date - Market Analysis - New - season red dates: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The first - crop flower setting in some jujube orchards is average, but the second - and third - crop flower setting is good. The estimated new - season yield is 56 - 620,000 tons, a decrease of 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024 [7] - Sales area: The total inventory is at a high level in recent years, and it is the traditional off - season. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has increased recently, and the spot market transactions are good [7] Red Date - Strategy - Recently, funds are highly sensitive to the growth of new - season red dates, and the news from the production area has a great impact on the futures market. The futures and spot prices may fluctuate strongly in the follow - up [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a weak performance on Tuesday, with the September contract's funds shifting to the January contract. The favorable weather during the growing season influenced market sentiment, and the spot market in the Northeast region had limited trading activity. The downstream feed enterprises mainly used their previous inventory and waited for the new grain to enter the market. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous trading range of 2320 - 2330, facing technical resistance. If the support at 2300 is ineffective, the price will continue to decline. The view is that the price will be weakly volatile [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the US, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazilian grain exporters expected lower soybean and soybean meal exports in July. In the domestic market, soybean meal followed the external market and declined. The reduction of Argentine tariffs and overseas purchases by domestic feed enterprises dragged down the forward price of soybean meal. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will rise [1]. Edible Oils - BMD palm oil closed higher on Tuesday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. Rapeseed in Canada also rose following the increase in US soybean oil. The market continued to focus on Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies. In the domestic market, soybean oil rose, rapeseed oil followed, and palm oil was relatively weak. The low price and high cost - effectiveness of soybean oil provided support. With the slight increase in the inventory of three major vegetable oils last week and the unclear international policies, the market will be volatile. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will be volatile [1]. Eggs - The main egg contract 2509 oscillated and closed flat on Tuesday. The spot price was stable. After the previous price adjustment, the short - term supply and demand became stable. Due to the hot weather, traders' willingness to stock up was low, and most of the egg prices in the sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamental situation was bearish, and the price will be volatile. Although the demand will increase in the peak season, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the price peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Pigs - The main pig contract 2509 rose 0.18% on Tuesday. The spot price of pigs declined in most regions. Some breeding enterprises increased their sales volume by reducing prices to meet their monthly sales plans. In the short term, the supply side will put pressure on the price, while policies will provide support. The view is that the price will be volatile [2]. Market Information - Last week, the production of rapeseed oil increased with the increase in rapeseed crushing volume, and the inventory continued to decline. As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported rapeseed oil was 78.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, a 3.21% decline. The contract volume was 11.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week, a 9.24% decline [3]. - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with the EU agreeing to a zero - tariff policy for a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil imports, and a 3% tariff for imports exceeding the quota [3]. - The Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission (IPOC) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 500 million tons, higher than 480 million tons in 2024. Indonesia also plans to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India to support its plan to expand the oil palm planting area [4]. - The e - trading center of Sinograin will organize a two - way bidding trading of domestic soybeans on August 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 40,302 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [1][6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and won awards [28].

农产品早报 2025-07-30 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二夜盘美豆收盘下跌，北美天气较好限制上方空间，但因为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势，豆粕则 因国内累库等继续偏弱，据 MYSTEEL 统计上周油厂豆粕库存已突破 100 万吨。周二豆粕国内豆粕现货 小幅下跌，华东报 2830 元/吨，豆粕成交较好突破 40 万吨，提货仍然维持高水平，下游库存天数小幅回 落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万吨，本周预计压榨 237.26 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常，覆盖大部分产区，气温凉爽，总体天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水企 稳回升。总体来看，外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态，暂未出 ...