法律攻势与行政施压升级，鲍威尔公开反击 ，是美国司法部向美联储发出大陪审团传票，并威胁就相关事项对鲍威尔提起刑事指控。 鲍威尔在当地时间上周日晚发布的书面及视频声明中表示，调查名义上涉及其去年6月在国会就美联储 总部翻修项目所作的证词，但真正背景是行政当局试图通过法律手段向美联储施压，迫使其在利率政策 上让步。他在声明中表示： 1月13日，据彭博援引知情人士，在特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压行动后，全球各国央行官员正 在草拟一份声明，以声援美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 该知情人士表示，这份联合声明预计将以国际清算银行（BIS）的名义发布，并将对所有央行开放签 署。由于时区差异，各国央行行长需要时间敲定措辞，该声明最早可能于当地时间周二发布。 声明同样由一批跨党派的前白宫经济顾问签署。耶伦同日表示，对于现任主席鲍威尔的接班人而言，特 朗普政府的调查让人"极度不寒而栗"，市场应当感到忧心忡忡。 ，鲍威尔在充满挑战的时期领导了美联储，并展现了"无可挑剔的诚信"，警告任何削弱央行独立性的行 为都可能带来长期风险。 威廉姆斯同时指出，当前市场反应相对克制，一个重要原因在于调查结果和政治博弈的走向仍高度不确 定。 散户投 ...

最近，美国众议院通过了一项法案，以230票赞成、196票反对的结果，将奥巴马医改中的补贴政策再延长三年。从表面上看，这只是一次普通的政策表决， 但真正了解背后意义的人都清楚，这无疑是对特朗普的一次重击。毕竟，奥巴马医改是民主党的核心政治遗产，特朗普自从竞选之初到上任以来，一直在寻 求废除它。然而，现在不仅没有废除，反而被国会通过立法方式进一步加固。这对于特朗普来说，显然是一个不小的打击。 让特朗普更加头疼的是票数的 细节。在这230张赞成票中，有17票竟然来自共和党内部的议员，这意味着17名共和党议员选择反水，站到了民主党一边。考虑到中期选举即将来临，共和 党在这次投票中的大规模倒戈，透露出一个不容忽视的信号：党内的裂痕不仅存在，而且正在公开化，甚至逐渐扩大。特朗普的权威在党内受到了挑战，这 样的情况对于即将到来的中期选举来说，无疑是个不小的隐患。如果党内的分歧持续加剧，共和党可能会在选举中面临不小的挑战。那么，特朗普该如何应 对这一局面呢？答案似乎很简单：他需要清除内部分裂，把所有不听从自己指令的官员换掉，而美联储主席鲍威尔，便成了他清除内患的头号目标。 目 前，鲍威尔正面临着一项刑事调查，调查的核心问题是 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 376 points or 1.4%, closing at 26,608 points, driven by technology stocks[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 44 points or 1%, closing at 4,165 points, marking a ten-year high[2] - The S&P 500 Index gained 10 points or 0.2%, reaching a new closing high of 6,977 points[3] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market was approximately HKD 306.22 billion[1] - The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded CNY 36,000 billion, setting a historical record[2] Currency and Monetary Policy - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 20 pips to 7.0108, the highest since September 30, 2024[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a CNY 34 billion reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of CNY 36.1 billion for the day[2] Company Earnings - WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) projected a revenue increase of approximately 15.84% year-on-year, estimating revenue of CNY 45.456 billion[5] - The company also anticipates a net profit growth of about 102.65% year-on-year, estimating net profit of CNY 191.51 billion, influenced by asset sales[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with market participants awaiting key economic indicators and Federal Reserve guidance [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, indicating a cautious policy stance [2] - Despite a temporary rise in inflation in 2025, the RBA expects inflation to return to the target range of 2%-3% by mid-2025, providing a stable foundation for the AUD [2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is increasing volatility in the AUD/USD pair, with expectations of a 2.5%-2.75% GDP growth in the US for 2026 and a gradual decline in inflation [2] Group 2: Economic and Commodity Price Support - The Australian economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, driven by private consumption and investment, with a recovery in the real estate market [3] - As a commodity currency, the AUD is supported by rising prices of export goods, particularly coal, which is expected to increase by 5%-7% in 2026 [3] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some institutions believing that the RBA's hawkish tilt and rising commodity prices will support the AUD, while others caution that the Fed's policies may limit AUD gains [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The AUD/USD pair is currently in a short-term consolidation phase, trading within the 0.6700-0.6720 range, with no clear trend signals from the moving averages [4] - Key support levels are identified at 0.6700 and 0.6680, while resistance levels are at 0.6720 and 0.6750, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [4] - Upcoming critical data includes the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and CPI, which are expected to influence the strength of the USD and the AUD's performance [4]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently experiencing a slight decline, trading at 1.3879, with a cautious market outlook due to multiple factors [1] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating resilience in the Canadian economy despite U.S. tariff impacts, leading to expectations of a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting process in 2026, but there are significant internal disagreements regarding the pace of easing, which is limiting the downward trend of the USD [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is closely tied to international oil prices, with recent geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues supporting oil prices, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of Canadian assets [2] - The Canadian economy is showing signs of recovery, with stable core inflation, but faces challenges from U.S. tariff uncertainties and a loosening labor market, which may restrict the appreciation of the Canadian dollar [2] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, having broken below the key support level of 1.3750, currently fluctuating between 1.38 and 1.39 [2] Group 3 - The RSI indicator is currently around 45, indicating a neutral state with no clear overbought or oversold signals, suggesting that the current oscillation pattern may continue until key data or events emerge [3] - Key support levels for the USD/CAD exchange rate are focused on the 1.3800 level, with 1.3750 as a critical support level; a breach could lead to further declines towards 1.3600 [3] - Resistance levels are concentrated in the 1.3820-1.3850 range, with potential upward movement towards the 1.3900 level if this range is maintained [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rates are positioned favorably to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation back to the central bank's target of 2% [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has achieved a better balance of risks after a 75 basis point rate cut last year [1][2]. - Monetary policy is currently in a good position to support labor market stability and return inflation to the FOMC's long-term target [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Forecast - Decision-makers expect only one 25 basis point rate cut by 2026 according to the latest economic forecasts released in December [1][2]. - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize this year and gradually decline in the coming years, with labor market indicators returning to pre-pandemic levels [1][2]. - Inflation is projected to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, then decline to slightly below 2.5% for the year [1][2]. - Economic growth is anticipated to continue above trend levels [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, expects a healthy U.S. economy by 2026 and sees no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Williams stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has moved its moderately restrictive monetary policy stance closer to neutral [1][3]. - He believes that monetary policy is currently positioned to support labor market stability and bring inflation back to the FOMC's long-term target of 2% [1][3]. - Williams expressed an optimistic economic outlook, projecting GDP growth for the year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and then declining in subsequent years [2][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - He noted that inflation pressures are expected to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, before declining to 2.5% for the remainder of the year [2][5]. - Williams emphasized the importance of returning inflation to the 2% target without causing excessive risks to the labor market, highlighting increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools [1][4]. - The recent reduction in short-term borrowing costs was driven by policymakers attempting to balance a weak labor market with inflation still above the 2% target [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market saw a slight increase, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reaching historical highs, driven by strong performances in technology stocks and Walmart, despite concerns over a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones increased by 86.13 points (0.17%) to close at 49,590.20 points, the Nasdaq rose by 62.56 points (0.26%) to 23,733.90 points, and the S&P 500 gained 10.99 points (0.16%) to finish at 6,977.27 points [5]. - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the information technology sector rose by 0.35%, industrials by 0.75%, and materials by 0.73%, while energy and financial sectors fell by 0.66% and 0.8%, respectively [5]. - Consumer discretionary ETFs rose by 1.17%, while financial sector ETFs fell by 0.79% [5]. Company Performances - Walmart's stock surged by 3%, contributing to the support of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, and is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20, which is expected to attract billions in passive index fund investments [3][4]. - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Google A increasing by 1% and surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, while Tesla rose by 0.89% and Apple by 0.34%. However, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta saw declines [6]. - Planet Labs, a space concept stock, surged over 12% after announcing a multi-year agreement with the Swedish Armed Forces [7]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 4.26%, with Alibaba increasing by over 10%, marking its largest gain since August 29. Other Chinese stocks like Bilibili, Xpeng Motors, and Baidu also saw significant increases [8].

他们表示，特朗普政府的行动使美联储抗击通胀的信誉受到威胁，给金融市场注入一种新的重大风险。 而只要这种风险不消除，交易员很可能会让美国国债收益率维持在本来应有水平之上，进而抬高抵押贷 款、企业贷款以及其他形式信贷的成本。 "市场会因为美联储成为不稳定来源而变得非常紧张，"Gregory Peters表示。他是PGIM Fixed Income的 联席首席投资官，负责管理约9000亿美元资产。 他将特朗普政府最新一轮的施压行动——周日传出司法部威胁起诉美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，比作足 球比赛中的乌龙球。 "这消息来得毫无征兆，而且毫无疑问会造成避险，"他说。这"再次动摇了制度规范，并将产生中长期 影响"。 尽管通胀仍高于央行目标，但特朗普一再敦促美联储更激进地降息，称不这样做正在拖累经济。 品浩（Pimco）、PGIM和DWS Group等大型债券投资机构的基金经理警告称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 挑战美联储独立性，与其压低利率的目标背道而驰。 他还以未经证实的抵押贷款欺诈指控为由，试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，该案目前正在最高法院审 理。此外，特朗普任命一名白宫顾问进入美联储理事会，而此人主张的货币政策宽松程度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has accused the Justice Department of initiating a grand jury investigation to exert pressure on the central bank, leading to bipartisan backlash against Trump's nomination plans for a new Fed chair [1]. Group 1: Political Reactions - Republican Senator Thom Tillis has publicly stated he will oppose any Fed nominees from Trump until the Justice Department investigation is fully resolved, indicating a significant obstacle to Trump's plans for reshaping the Fed [2]. - Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemned Trump for abusing the law and called for the Senate to reject any Fed nominations from him, emphasizing the threat to the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 2: Investigation Context - Powell's statement links the investigation, which ostensibly concerns his testimony about Fed headquarters renovations, to broader governmental threats and pressures, questioning the Fed's ability to set interest rates based on economic conditions rather than political influence [1][3]. - The investigation has been characterized by Powell as a political pressure tactic rather than a standard legal procedure, highlighting the ongoing tensions between the Fed and the current administration [3]. Group 3: Internal Republican Divisions - Tillis's opposition could lead to a stalemate in the Senate Banking Committee, which currently has a partisan split of 13 to 11, making it difficult for any controversial nominations to advance without 60 votes [2]. - Trump's recent actions have resulted in a series of Republican defections in Congress, indicating a growing divide within the party as he faces challenges from both sides [3].