Core Viewpoint - A-share companies are reporting impressive earnings, with some experiencing profit increases exceeding 3000% in the first half of the year, particularly in the rare earth sector [1][3][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Huahong Technology expects a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% [3]. - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan, turning a profit from a loss of 244 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - Shenghe Resources projects a net profit of 305 million to 385 million yuan, an increase of 374 million to 454 million yuan compared to the previous year [4]. - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [5]. - Other companies like Te Yi Pharmaceutical, Qianfang Technology, and Fenglong Co. also reported significant profit increases, with Te Yi's net profit expected to grow by 1164.22% to 1312.95% [8][9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Insights - Research institutions indicate that industries with strong mid-year earnings typically perform better in stock prices during July and August, suggesting a strategic focus on companies with positive earnings surprises [2]. - The rare earth market is experiencing a price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and supportive national policies, which is expected to enhance the profitability of companies in this sector [3][5]. - The U.S. Department of Defense's investment in MP Materials and the establishment of a minimum price for rare earth products highlight the strategic importance of rare earth resources and may influence domestic pricing expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may enter a new upward phase, with a focus on sectors expected to outperform based on mid-year earnings, including domestic consumption, technology independence, and dividend stocks [11].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, surpassing 3500 points, closing at 3510.18, with a weekly increase of 1.09% [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index saw weekly gains of 1.99% and 2.21% respectively, while the STAR 50 and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 increased by 0.98% and 0.41% [2] - A total of 4037 stocks experienced positive growth, while 1335 stocks declined during the week [2] Sector Performance - The multi-financial, small metals, and coke sectors led the gains, while the feed, city commercial banks, and coal mining sectors faced the largest declines [2] International Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices fell on July 12, with the Dow Jones down by 279.13 points (0.63%), the S&P 500 down by 20.71 points (0.33%), and the Nasdaq down by 45.14 points (0.22%) [3][4] - European indices also declined, with the FTSE 100 down by 34.54 points (0.38%), the CAC 40 down by 72.96 points (0.92%), and the DAX down by 201.50 points (0.82%) [3][4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by $1.88 to $68.45 per barrel (up 2.82%) and Brent crude oil increasing by $1.72 to $70.36 per barrel (up 2.51%) [3][4] Regulatory Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the implementation of the "Guidelines for the Growth Layer of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board," allowing 32 existing unprofitable companies to enter the growth layer immediately [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released work points for the integration of information technology and industrialization, emphasizing support for high-quality development of basic and industrial software [9] Economic Agreements - A visa exemption agreement between China and Malaysia will take effect on July 17, allowing holders of valid passports to stay for up to 30 days without a visa [5] Investment Insights - The A-share market has shown strong performance over the past three weeks, with systemic risks remaining low, indicating potential for continued upward movement [8] - Focus on sectors with favorable mid-year performance and long-term investment opportunities in domestic consumption, technology independence, and dividend stocks is recommended [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

Group 1 - Citic Securities indicates that the market is transitioning from a stock market to an incremental market, with manufacturing sectors at low levels poised for recovery due to increased liquidity and policy expectations [1] - Everbright Securities forecasts that the market may reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors, with a focus on domestic consumption, technology independence, and dividend stocks [2] - Caitong Securities highlights the continuation of global and domestic favorable conditions, supporting an upward market outlook, with emphasis on the reform of capital markets and the transition to new productive forces in China [3] Group 2 - Huaan Securities maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, citing high dividend yields as a key driver for continued upward trends in bank stocks, with expected increases in dividend yields in the coming years [4] - Tianfeng Securities expresses optimism about the application of cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots, noting their advantages over traditional reduction gear solutions and the potential for increased usage in the industry [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3550 points on July 11, 2023, marking a 1.09% increase for the week [1][5] - The total market turnover on July 11 was 1.74 trillion yuan, the highest in over three months, with a significant increase of 221.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2][4] - The overall market saw 2960 stocks rise, with 68 hitting the daily limit up, while 2206 stocks declined [2] Sector Performance - Non-bank financials, computers, and steel sectors led the market gains, with respective increases of 2.02%, 1.93%, and 1.93% [2] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors were the top performers for the week, with gains of 6.12%, 4.41%, and 3.96% respectively [3][5] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant activity, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel hitting the daily limit up following positive earnings forecasts [3] Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - Despite the market rebound, there was a cautious sentiment among investors, with a net outflow of over 14 billion yuan from the main funds on July 11 [4] - The computer, non-bank financial, and non-ferrous metal sectors saw the largest net inflows, amounting to 36.91 billion yuan, 32.78 billion yuan, and 7.22 billion yuan respectively [4] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares reached 102.11 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, driven by steady volume release and potential inflow of new capital [5][6] - There is an expectation of a new phase of market growth in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors such as consumption, technology, and dividend stocks [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - Changxin Technology's planned IPO is expected to benefit the entire semiconductor industry chain, particularly the upstream semiconductor equipment materials and storage sectors [2][6] - The advanced storage and logic capacity expansion continues, with domestic storage leader Changxin Technology expected to increase its capacity by nearly 50% year-on-year in 2025 [6] - The demand for storage is recovering, and some storage price increases have been ongoing for several months, indicating a positive outlook for niche DRAM manufacturers in mainland China [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Changxin Technology, a core enterprise in the DRAM industry chain in mainland China, is undergoing IPO preparations, which is expected to facilitate business expansion through financing [6] - The company's product range includes DDR4/DDR5 and LPDDR4/LPDDR5 series, with plans to deliver HBM3 samples by the end of 2025 and to start mass production in 2026 [6] Market Dynamics - Changxin's market share in terms of bit shipments is projected to increase from 6% in Q1 to 8% by the end of the year, with DDR5/LPDDR5 market shares expected to rise significantly [6] - The supply gap for DDR4 and LPDDR4 continues to exist, benefiting domestic storage manufacturers and niche storage design companies [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the semiconductor equipment and materials sector include Northern Huachuang, Shengmei Shanghai, and Zhongwei Company [6] - In the storage industry chain, recommended stocks include Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng [6]

上证指数再度冲击3500点。 今天，上证指数盘中最高涨至3499.89点，收盘价为3497.48点，均刷新今年以来新高。 截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.7%，深证成指上涨1.46%，创业板指上涨2.39%。全市场成交额为14539亿 元，较昨日增加2453亿元。全市场逾4200只个股上涨。 两大板块爆发 今天，光伏和科技股联手走强。具体看，光伏概念中，光伏设备、硅能源、BC电池等板块大涨。通 威股份等多股涨停。 | | | 光伏设备 6724.65 5.61% | | € | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分7 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 首航新能 次新 301658 | | 36.00 | 20.00% | 13.9亿 | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 10:59 | | | | | | 大全能源 融 688303 | | 26.50 | 11.72% | 146亿 | | 文能聚 | 22.31 | 11.11% | 18.3亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On July 2, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.15%, IH rose 0.17%, IC fell 0.26%, and IM fell 0.39% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 803 lots, IH increased by 5,144 lots, IC decreased by 3,207 lots, and IM decreased by 16,123 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 676 lots, IH decreased by 656 lots, IC decreased by 1,936 lots, and IM decreased by 8,772 lots [1][2]. b) Basis of Stock Index Futures Graphs of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM from June 6 to July 2 were presented [4]. c) Changes in Positions of the Top 20 Members in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the changes in long and short positions of different contracts varied. For example, in IF2507, long positions increased by 393 lots and short positions decreased by 585 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, the changes in long and short positions also differed among contracts. For instance, in IH2507, long positions increased by 57 lots and short positions increased by 513 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2509, long positions decreased by 1,411 lots and short positions decreased by 1,014 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long positions decreased by 2,240 lots and short positions decreased by 2,144 lots [5]. d) Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. - Important drivers include statements from the Minister of Finance and the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, as well as the performance of the stock market, such as the differentiation of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices, and the performance of various concept stocks [6].

金 融 期 货 研 究 | AR "Blan" (1) ) | | | | C | 1 | | | | 0 | | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期指：震荡格局为主 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3942.76 | ↑0.17 | | 2360.7 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3911.6 | ↑0.10 | -31.16 | 328.3 | 28002 | ↓2834 | 60998 | ↓4473 | | IF2508 | 3895 | ↑0.01 | -47.76 | 22.3 ...