报告导读： 4月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济韧性。二季度或主要加快落实存量政 策，关注城市更新项目的进展以及两新政策的力度。 狭义收入：增速继续回升。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.4% ，但是 4 月当月增 速 1.9% ，相比 3 月的增速 0.3% 有所回升。在海外不确定性扰动、我国 PPI 价格低位运行的情况下， 4 月财政收入增速回升反映了积极财政发力后，经济表现出一定的韧性。从主要分项看，增值税、消费 税、企业所得税收入增速边际回落。个人所得税收入增速明显回升。此外，出口退税增速虽然边际回落， 但是表现尚可，或与出口受转口贸易的支撑有关。接下来，随着关税局势缓和，外需或边际回升。此外， 非税收入增速持续回落，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 狭义支出：增速平稳，保障民生。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 4.6% ，其中从 4 月当月同比增长 5.8% ，相比 3 月的增速 5.7% 略微抬升。从节奏看，目前支出进度与过去两年的同期 水平大体相当。这体现出，财政政策仍较为积极，对经济保持应有的支持力度。 政府性基金：收入回升，支出提速。 2025 年 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 19 日 社零数据点评 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1172.3 | 1.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1076.2 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.1 | 28.9 | 27.5 | | 相对表现 | 10.2 | 31.3 | 21.5 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《商贸社服行业周报—京东外卖 上线百亿补贴，京东盒马等企业助力 出口转内销》2025-04-14 4 月社零同比+5.1%，国补品类保持增速领先 消费品/商业 2025 年 4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，当月同比+5.1%；实物商品网 上零售额当月为 9317 亿元，当月同比+6.1%。4 月社零及电商大盘维持相对稳 健增长，国补品类增速保持领先。当前内需有望发力，若刺激消费政策出台消 费互联网龙头将显著受 ...

其中，消费品以旧换新相关商品销售大幅增长，对社会消费品零售总额的增长和支撑作用比较明显。按 照消费类型分，4月份商品零售额33007亿元，增长5.1%；餐饮收入4167亿元，增长5.2%。商品消费的 5.1%增速，超过2024年的平均增长水平的1.9个百分点，商品消费的疲软态势有所改善。 具体到相关消费品类，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、通讯器材类商品零 售额均为两位数增长，增速分别为38.8%、33.5%、26.9%、19.9%。 政在发声｜国家统计局发言人答21记者：好房子需求不断扩大，促进房地产回稳仍需继续努力 某行业头部家电品牌创始人告诉21世纪经济报道记者，国补政策对家电类消费品的刺激作用明显，特别 是高客单价的家电品类，补贴的力度可观，销售增长很好，国补也让"家电也是有寿命的"消费理念更深 入人心，拉动了消费者的"换新"消费。 21世纪经济报道记者周慧 北京报道 消费品以旧换新政策，正在持续拉动商品消费的增长。 一位北京消费者告诉21世纪经济报道记者，她用了七年的某高端品牌电饭锅出了点小问题，原计划联系 商家售后，当她看到国补大促的价格优惠，就在某电商平台下单了新电饭锅。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.372 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 485 million yuan, up 8.39% year-on-year [1][2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.796 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.30% year-on-year, with a net profit of 81 million yuan, down 7.57% year-on-year [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.260 billion yuan, a decline of 8.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, down 14.33% year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from range hoods was 2.735 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 6.22% year-on-year, accounting for 42.93% of total revenue [2] - The revenue from stoves was 1.533 billion yuan, up 5.28% year-on-year, representing 24.06% of total revenue [2] - The revenue from water heaters was 1.262 billion yuan, a growth of 10.40% year-on-year, making up 19.81% of total revenue [2] Market Trends - The increase in demand for kitchen appliances in 2024 was driven by the old-for-new policy and national subsidy policies, which positively impacted the market [2] - The overall retail sales of the range hood market reached 36.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a retail volume of 20.83 million units, up 10.5% [2] - The gas stove market saw retail sales of 20.4 billion yuan, a growth of 15.7% year-on-year, with a retail volume of 24.29 million units, up 15.2% [2] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 40.71%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margins for range hoods, stoves, and water heaters were up by 0.35, 0.07, and down by 0.89 percentage points respectively [3] - The company experienced a significant increase in sales expenses due to higher advertising and market service costs, leading to a rise in the sales expense ratio [3] Future Outlook - The company has a diversified brand matrix with three major brands, aiming for continuous growth through product innovation and channel expansion [4] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 517 million, 563 million, and 613 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.91, 10.01, and 9.19 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that the home appliance sector is expected to benefit from continued national subsidies and a favorable domestic demand environment, with leading companies in the industry poised to gain from both domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - The home appliance sector is anticipated to see sustained improvement in domestic demand due to ongoing national subsidies, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3% in retail sales of home appliances in Q1 2025 [1] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in export value and 13.1% in volume for home appliances in Q1 2025, driven by emerging markets and a "grab export" effect [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance industry is 3.3%, ranking second among 31 primary industries, indicating a strong defensive attribute for the sector [1] Group 2: White Goods - The white goods segment is benefiting from national subsidy policies and a favorable real estate environment, with expectations for increased sales elasticity in Q2 and Q3 [2] - Leading brands are expected to outperform second-tier brands in terms of sales, with structural upgrades in product offerings enhancing profitability for top companies [2] - Despite potential short-term disruptions due to tariff fluctuations, domestic white goods leaders have established overseas production capabilities to mitigate trade barriers [2] Group 3: Color TVs - The domestic color TV market is experiencing a recovery trend, supported by national subsidies and the upcoming U.S. sports events, which are expected to stabilize demand [3] - Domestic brands are focusing on high-end product offerings, while overseas production capabilities are reducing tariff risks, allowing for market share gains against Korean competitors [3] Group 4: Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is closely linked to the real estate market, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance demand and improve valuations [4] - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to further stimulate demand, leading to gradual improvements in the sector's fundamentals [4] Group 5: Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is projected to recover significantly due to national subsidies, with a notable increase in demand expected in early 2025 as more product categories are included [5] - The industry is entering a concentrated replacement cycle, driven by the average product lifespan of 3-5 years, which is expected to boost growth for leading small appliance manufacturers [5] - Short-term export orders may face volatility due to U.S. trade tariffs, but the reliance of the U.S. kitchen appliance industry on Chinese supply chains is expected to favor leading manufacturers [5] Group 6: Robotic Vacuums - The robotic vacuum segment is showing strong growth potential, with Q1 2025 data indicating it is one of the most elastic consumer categories benefiting from national subsidies [6] - The domestic market is expected to see accelerated penetration rates as product prices reach attractive levels, with significant sales elasticity anticipated throughout the year [6] Group 7: Export Outlook for Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums in overseas markets remains uncertain due to U.S. trade tariffs and economic conditions, but leading Chinese brands are expected to capture market share in the mid-to-low-end price segments [7] - The potential exit of foreign brands and smaller Chinese brands due to tariffs may create new expansion opportunities for established Chinese brands [7]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, JD achieved revenue of 301.08 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion RMB, up 43.4%, with a net profit margin of 4.24%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD's Q1 2025 revenue was 3010.82 billion RMB, with 1P revenue at 2423.09 billion RMB (up 16.2%) and 3P revenue at 587.73 billion RMB (up 14.0%) [1] - The retail segment generated revenue of 2638.45 billion RMB, a 16.3% increase, with adjusted operating profit of 128.46 billion RMB and a profit margin of 4.87% [1] - The logistics segment reported revenue of 46.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with adjusted operating profit of 1.45 billion RMB and a profit margin of 0.31% [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Policies - National subsidy policies have supported JD's continued growth, with expectations for these policies to persist in 2025, further enhancing offline integration [1] - JD's new food delivery service has made significant progress, with daily order volume surpassing 10 million, indicating strong market penetration compared to competitors [2] - Regulatory bodies are emphasizing compliance and fair competition in the food delivery sector, which may lead to a more rational investment approach in the future [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for JD are 1286.4 billion RMB and 1375.1 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11.01% and 6.90% [3] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are 51.01 billion RMB and 59.28 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 6.66% and 16.22% [3] - The target price is set at 207.89 HKD, corresponding to a 12x PE for the group in 2025 [3]

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 营收增长提速，盈利呈现弹性—家电行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报综述 [Table_Summary] 在内销有国补助力，外销新兴市场强劲增长势能延续的背景下，家电行业整体经营趋势加速向 上，其中仅厨电受地产影响仍处于阶段盘整当中。站在当前时点，美国关税政策或有持续反复、 扰动的可能性，我们建议在不确定性中把握确定性，围绕对美净敞口较低以及内销有国补政策 加持，业绩增长确定性较高的细分行业优质龙头进行布局。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 营收增长提速，盈利呈现弹性 2] —家电行业 2024 年报&2025 年一季报综述 [Table_Summary2] 整体：收入增长提速，盈利持续改善 2024A/2024Q4/2025Q1 家电行业样本公司营收分别同比+5.23%/+8.37%/+ ...

" 财报发布当日，三大电商平台618活动同时开启，流量宽度成为 胜负手。 " 作者丨王薇 编辑丨梁辰 长达五十多分钟的分析师问答环节中，京东首席执行官许冉用了近乎一半的时间回答有关外卖的问题。可 惜的是，当日订单量未能突破2万单的关口。 5月13日港股收盘后，京东集团披露2025年一季度业绩报告显示好于预期。这家公司正面临着国内激烈的 行业竞争和国际贸易的不确定性，但消费者信心的改善推动季度营收和利润双增。不过，官方并未在财报 中披露有关外卖的具体业务数据，只是将其单独罗列在新业务板块中进行介绍。 该公司披露，一季度调整后净利润（不包括股权激励、长期投资公允价值变动等）为128亿元人民币，同 比增长约为43%。营收同比增长15.8%，约为3011亿元人民币。这一数据超过了FactSet调查的分析师预 期。受此消息影响，京东美股开盘后股价涨幅超过5%，5月14日港股以3.36%的涨幅收盘。 业绩发布当日晚间20时，京东心动购物季开启。其竞争对手阿里巴巴旗下电商平台淘天集团和字节跳动旗 下抖音电商也于当日相继宣布618活动开启。尽管许冉在电话会议上表示，京东仍以5月31日作为正式开 始日，但受访券商分析师表示，心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price reduction of the iPhone 16 series by Apple ahead of the "6·18" shopping festival is aimed at boosting sales in the Chinese market and responding to competitive pressures from domestic smartphone brands [2][6][7]. Pricing Strategy - Apple has issued a price adjustment notice to its channel partners, with the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max seeing price cuts exceeding 1,000 yuan across all storage versions [2][3]. - The iPhone 16 Pro starts at 6,499 yuan, while the Pro Max starts at 8,599 yuan, with reductions of 1,500 yuan and 1,400 yuan respectively compared to official prices [3]. - The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus have also seen price reductions of 1,000 yuan, with additional government subsidies available [3][5]. E-commerce Promotions - Major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com have launched their "6·18" promotions early, with significant discounts on the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro versions [4][5]. - Tmall's official Apple Store is offering the iPhone 16 Pro 128GB at a promotional price of 5,499 yuan after a 2,000 yuan discount and a 500 yuan government subsidy [5]. Market Context - The "6·18" shopping festival is a critical sales period for smartphone manufacturers, with Apple aiming to leverage this event to enhance its market performance [4][6]. - Despite the price cuts and promotional efforts, Apple's performance in the Chinese market has been declining, with a reported 9% drop in shipments year-on-year in Q1 2025 [7]. Competitive Landscape - The price reductions are also a strategic move to counter the competitive pressure from domestic brands, as Android manufacturers are also launching their own promotions during the "6·18" festival [8][9]. - Other brands like Vivo and OPPO are offering substantial discounts and subsidies, indicating a highly competitive market environment [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see revenue growth starting from Q2 2025, driven by domestic consumption stimulus and government subsidies, despite a slight revenue decline in Q1 2025 due to policy transitions [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 473 million yuan in 2024, with a total payout including interim dividends reaching 945 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5% [1]. - The gross profit margins for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 are projected to be 48% and 53%, respectively, showing an increase of 0.8 and 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall retail sales in the kitchen and bathroom sector for 2024 are estimated at 176.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, with essential products like hoods and water heaters showing a 10% increase [2]. - The company has restructured its product matrix into three main business segments: kitchen air environment products, cooking products, and cleaning storage products [2]. Group 3: Product Performance - Key product categories maintaining growth in 2024 include hoods (+2.51%), stoves (+3.96%), integrated machines (+2.4%), dishwashers (+4.22%), and water heaters (+5.47%) [3]. - The company is expanding its brand portfolio to address increasing replacement demand, launching the "Starry" series to target the mid-price segment and enhancing its main brand with AI cooking models [3]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Liabilities - The company's contract liabilities increased by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating strong payment enthusiasm from distributors [4]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was a net inflow of 1.66 billion yuan, exceeding performance expectations [4]. Group 5: Future Projections - The company has introduced a stock option incentive plan for 2025, aiming for a return on equity (ROE) of no less than 13% or revenue growth rates exceeding industry averages from 2024 [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.68 billion, 1.77 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 5%, and 5%, respectively [5].