前几天，一个中国乘客在社交媒体发了条视频，内容挺炸裂。 他坐在卡塔尔航空飞往多哈的航班上，低头想看电影，一抬头窗外火光冲天。 那是真的漫天"嗖"、"嗖"、"嗖"如火舞银河，乘客们开始纷纷议论： "这是导弹吗？" "没错，以色列上空，应该是从伊朗过来的。" 在飞行高度几千米的民航客机上看地面战争实况，这可不是什么模拟飞行游戏，是几天前的真实画面。 乘客大哥事后在社交平台上说了一句话："挺好看，下次不看了。" 那天晚上，伊朗对以色列发动了高达11轮导弹袭击，包括370枚弹道导弹、100多架无人机。 以色列虽然成功拦截了大部分，但仍有导弹突破防线，造成不小损失。 这场景有多离谱呢？ 相当于你订个经济舱靠窗座位，结果附送一场中东空袭直播，还是live版的。 特效逼真、音效震撼、全场沉默。 现在坐飞机也能看直播，关键是还没法退票，该说值还是不值呢？或者说飞机上看伊朗、以色列干仗直播show真的 安全吗？ 一 理论上，这些民航都是绕开的，但在战火忽然点燃的那一刻，很多飞行中的航班还来不及改线，只能从"热区"上空 低空飞过。 所以，这时候你就明白一句话——飞行计划可以改，战火不会提前告诉你。 一边是民航客机从天空划过，一边 ...

2025年6月20日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美两周内决定是否攻击伊朗,原油波动持续,近期博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1697.63点，较上期上涨4.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1536.84点，较上期下跌7.94% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2908.68点，较上期上涨33.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1307.92点，较上期上涨16.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）2230.99点，较上期下跌31.55% | | 6月13日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2088.24点,较上期下跌152.11点 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1844USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.62% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1243.05点，较上期上涨7.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线4 ...

黄金周四（6月19日）早盘上涨3388附近后受阻转跌，欧盘前最低跌至3347附近，欧盘震荡上涨至3379，美盘金价保持在3360-3375区间震荡，日线收出一根 十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储鹰派立场压制金价 二、技术面 3、特朗普关税政策的双重影响 鲍威尔指出关税成本将转嫁消费者，推高商品价格和通胀，黄金作为抗通胀资产吸引力上升。若美联储因通胀推迟降息，高利率环境可能继续压制金价，形 成多空博弈。 1、日线级别：周四的黄金市场依旧延续着震荡的主旋律。黄金先是果断跌破了周二与周三构筑的震荡区间下沿，同时一举下破10日均线，释放出明显的下 行信号，令市场空头情绪一度高涨。然而，当金价触及20日均线这一关键支撑位时，多头力量迅速集结，展开顽强反击，成功企稳并强势反弹，最终在日线 收出十字阴线，预示着短期内黄金市场仍将在震荡格局中徘徊，等待新的驱动因素打破僵局。 整体上，后市重点关注美联储货币政策走向、特朗普关税实施效果、以伊冲突演变及美国介入可能性。关注E3与伊朗的日内瓦会谈进展，若谈判无果，地 缘避险需求可能继续支撑金价；若美联储降息预期进一步降温，金价或承压下探。 从均线系统的视角深入剖析，当前5日均线已 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - A significant explosion was reported in Tehran, Iran, with multiple locations affected, including military bases [3][4] - The Iranian airspace has been closed until June 20 due to the current security situation, affecting all commercial flights [6] - The Israeli military claims to have intercepted over 480 Iranian drones since the escalation of conflict on June 13 [7] Group 2: Military Actions and Capabilities - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel has the capability to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities, including those in mountainous regions [11] - The Israeli military has reportedly destroyed more than half of Iran's missile launchers [11] - The U.S. is considering military action against Iran, with President Trump expected to make a decision within two weeks [9][10] Group 3: International Relations - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness for high-level talks and a willingness to meet with President Putin, indicating a desire to resolve the ongoing conflict [12]

智通财经6月19日电，据央视新闻，当地时间19日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处发表声明称，近期 该委员会已召开多轮紧急会议，决定针对以方的对等报复行动将持续实施，直至其付出应有代价。声明 同时指出，若第三方势力介入此次侵略行径，伊朗将根据既定方案立即予以回应。 伊朗：对以报复行动将持续 警告第三方勿介入 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. Oil and gas stocks surged, with companies like Shandong Molong and Jun Oil reaching their daily limit up. Conversely, the innovative drug sector saw declines, with Changshan Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit down. Overall, more than 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the red, with a total trading volume of 1.28 trillion [1]. Hot Topics Oil Service Sector - The oil service sector remained active, with Jun Oil and Shandong Molong achieving five consecutive limit ups. On June 19, crude oil futures continued to rise, reaching the highest level since April [4]. - The geopolitical risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz persists, with approximately 11% of global maritime trade passing through this strait, including 34% of maritime oil exports. This situation could lead to a significant impact on global oil trade, suggesting that oil prices may rise amid geopolitical uncertainties [5]. Short Drama Sector - The short drama sector saw a strong performance in the afternoon, with companies like Zhangyue Technology and Ciweng Media hitting their daily limit up. Tencent launched a new mini-program named "Short Drama" following the earlier release of "Mars Viewing Drama" [6]. - According to CITIC Securities, over 80% of the top 50 overseas short drama applications are developed by Chinese companies, indicating a robust international market presence for China's short drama industry [7]. Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector was active again, with companies like Nord and Xiangtan Electrochemical reaching their daily limit up. Upcoming forums and conferences focused on solid-state battery technology are expected to catalyze advancements in the industry [9]. - Dongxing Securities predicts that the solid-state battery sector will see simultaneous revenue and profit growth by 2025, driven by new demand and technological advancements [10]. Other Active Sectors - Other sectors showing activity include blockchain, military industry, and robotics, while sectors like nuclear fusion, rare earth magnets, and innovative drugs faced significant declines [11].

伊朗警告美国：所有选项都在考虑范围内 智通财经6月19日电，据中新网，伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪当地时间19日警告美国不要为了支持以色列 而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应，并称，"既要教 训侵略者，又要捍卫国家安全和利益。"他还补充说，"所有必要选项都在我们的军事决策者考虑范围 内。" ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | LPG | | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | 偏强 | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4500-4650】 | | | | 上中游去库，基差走弱，华北基差为-48（环比-41）。2024 年 PE 自伊朗 | | | | 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, some liner companies have announced price increases for early July, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market has large fluctuations, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3] - The negotiation between China and the United States has no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall rather than rise [3] - The CMA's price increase announcement and the ongoing Middle - East conflict lead to a strong oscillation in near - month contracts and a weak oscillation in far - month contracts due to many uncertainties [3] Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points, down 7.94% from the previous period; the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; the US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; the US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; the US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [2] - In May, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April [2] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [2] Contract and Strategy - On June 18, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 2092.0, up 3.18%, with a trading volume of 75,700 lots and an open interest of 42,800 lots, a decrease of 1734 lots from the previous day [3] - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the basis convergence logic; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try shorting lightly when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, try going long below 1450 and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Temporarily focus on the positive spread structure [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%, and the company's margin is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On June 17, Israeli officials announced the destruction of the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, and the US President Trump is more inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict makes the shipping industry uneasy, and many ships are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to an increase in shipping costs [4]

来源：中国新闻网综合央视新闻客户端 截至18日，伊以双方公布的最新伤亡数据显示，本轮冲突已致伊朗境内585人 死亡，1326人 受伤；以色列24人死亡，超过1300人受伤。而当前双方的冲突仍呈现出继续升 级的趋势。 当地时间18日， 美国驻以色列大使表示，美国驻以色列大使馆正在为美国公民安排撤离以色 列的航班和邮轮，美使馆人员也已开始通过各种方式离开以色列。 凌晨重磅！美联储宣布 以伊冲突已持续一周 1 9日，是以军对伊朗发动袭击后的第七天。在13日晚伊朗对以色列开启报复行动后，19日凌 晨伊朗再对以色列发动新一轮导弹袭击，以伊冲突也已持续一周。 此前一天，美国国务院17日宣布，鉴于当前局势，美国驻以色列大使馆以及美国驻耶路撒冷和 特拉维夫的领事机构于18日至20日关闭。 18日，英国外交部表示，由于以色列和伊朗之间的冲突构成重大风险， 英国暂时撤离了该国 驻以色列使领馆工作人员的家属。英国驻以色列大使馆和领事馆将继续维持运行。 ...