Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that risk assets will perform well by 2026 due to easing global trade tensions, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies from major economies, and the growth of artificial intelligence [1] Investment Strategy - The bank recommends overweighting stocks and gold in the core investment portfolio, with a focus on technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors in China [1][2] - In terms of asset allocation, Standard Chartered suggests overweighting U.S., Indian, and Chinese stocks, emerging market bonds, and gold, while underweighting European, UK, and Japanese stocks [2] Bond Market Outlook - Standard Chartered views global bonds as a core holding, preferring government bonds over corporate bonds, and recommends overweighting emerging market government bonds [2] - For U.S. Treasury bonds, the bank believes that 5-7 year bonds will provide a balance between higher yields and managing fiscal and inflation risks [2] Stock Market Outlook - The bank maintains an overweight position on global stocks, favoring U.S. and Asian (excluding Japan) equities, supported by strong earnings growth and a soft landing expectation for the economy [2] - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from improved corporate governance and targeted policy support for technology and innovation [2] Currency Outlook - Standard Chartered anticipates that the U.S. dollar index will peak around 100.5 in the next three months, with short-term support from cautious Fed policies and geopolitical risks [3] - Over the next 12 months, the structural support for the dollar is expected to weaken as the Fed shifts towards easing and other major central banks near the end of their rate hike cycles [3] Commodity Outlook - The bank maintains an overweight position on gold, with target prices of $4,350 and $4,800 per ounce for the next three and twelve months, respectively, driven by ongoing demand from emerging market central banks [3] - For crude oil, Standard Chartered expects prices to remain around $61 per barrel in the next three months and $60 per barrel in the next twelve months, with supply surplus limiting potential price rebounds from geopolitical risks [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - SCFIS continues to rise, spot freight rates maintain an upward trend, and the market shows a strong and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the freight rate trend in February [2]. - The core factor is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - After the holiday, the freight rates of liner companies have increased slightly, supporting the market to some extent, but there are differences in the subsequent increase. The overall market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On January 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1795.83 points, up 3.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1250.12 points, down 3.9% from the previous period [3]. - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) (composite index) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9, expected to be 52.6, and the previous value was 52.8. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 52.6, lower than the market expectation of 53.3 [3]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, expected to be - 7, and the previous value was - 7.4 [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US December S&P Global service - sector PMI preliminary value was 52.9, a six - month low, expected to be 54, and the previous value was 54.1. The US December S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 53, expected to be 53.9, and the previous value was 54.2 [4]. Market Situation - The US attack on Venezuela has made the international situation tense again, but the expected impact is limited. The US route is facing heavy snow at the end of the year, and the European route is affected by seasonal congestion, both showing different degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have signaled resuming routes in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is limited [4]. - On January 5, the main contract 2602 closed at 1855.5, up 1.48%. The trading volume was 22,900 lots, and the open interest was 26,000 lots, an increase of 1916 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and wait and see. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have led to significant movements in the commodity market, with silver rising over 6% and gold nearing $4500 per ounce [1] - The industrial metals market also saw gains, with copper reaching historical highs, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $5000 per ounce, citing increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risks [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could rise to $4900 per ounce, with potential for even higher prices if political or financial risks escalate [2][3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with a closing increase of 7.95% in COMEX silver futures, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications [3] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and solar panels [3] Group 4: Industrial Metals Supply Concerns - The London Metal Exchange reported a collective rise in industrial metals, with copper prices increasing over 4% due to supply concerns from major mines [6] - Analysts highlight that the copper market is facing a supply crunch, exacerbated by labor strikes and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to a significant market gap [6][7] Group 5: U.S. Tariff Implications - The potential for the U.S. to impose tariffs on copper imports for the electricity and construction sectors has added volatility to the market, with significant increases in copper inventories in the U.S. [7] - UBS notes that the U.S. holds a substantial portion of global copper inventories, but its consumption is low, raising concerns about supply for other regions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant movements in the commodity market driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Venezuela, which has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with major investment banks raising their price targets for gold and silver in 2026. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and continued demand for gold as a risk hedge [6] - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with futures closing up 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [6][7] Group 2: Industrial Metals Market - Industrial metals experienced a collective rise, with copper prices breaking the $13,000 per ton mark, fueled by strong demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles [10][11] - Concerns over supply disruptions from major copper mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and labor strikes in Chile, have exacerbated market anxiety regarding copper supply [11][12] - Citigroup analysts predict that global refined copper production will reach 26.9 million tons this year, with a market shortfall of 308,000 tons, emphasizing the need for investment in new copper mining capacity [11][12]

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Global commodity markets experienced significant fluctuations due to concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, leading to a resurgence in precious metals [1] - Gold prices surged, reaching a peak of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. military actions in Venezuela and other geopolitical developments [2][3] - Industrial metals also saw a collective rise, with copper prices breaking historical records, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [5][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued preference for gold as a risk-hedging asset [3] - Goldman Sachs projected gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce, with potential for further upside due to ongoing geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes [2][3] - The demand for gold ETFs is expected to remain high, with analysts suggesting that if political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially rise to $5,400 per ounce [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with futures rising by 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [3][4] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand outpacing the ability to expand production quickly [3] - A survey indicated that 57% of respondents expect silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce next year, reflecting strong market sentiment [4] Group 4: Copper Supply Concerns - The copper market is facing supply concerns due to production interruptions at major mines, with analysts predicting a global refined copper production of 26.9 million tons and a market shortfall of 308,000 tons this year [6][7] - The potential for U.S. tariffs on copper imports has added to market volatility, with significant increases in copper inventories in U.S. warehouses as traders prepare for possible trade restrictions [7] - UBS noted that the U.S. holds about half of the global copper inventory, but its consumption accounts for less than 10% of global demand, indicating risks for supply in other regions [7]

记者丨吴斌 编辑丨和佳 在美国"闪击"委内瑞拉后，金融市场也随之震动，现货黄金和白银价格大幅上涨，国际油价则反应平 淡，甚至"不涨反跌"。 1月5日，布伦特原油开盘一度短暂下跌1.2%至60美元/桶，不过此后价格有所反弹，截至22：22，涨近 1%。贵金属市场的反应更加激烈，现货黄金在经历了一周的下跌后强劲反弹，大涨超2%，冲破4420美 元/盎司关口；现货白银大涨逾5%，升破76美元/盎司，现货铂金、现货钯金涨幅均超5%，股债汇市场 暂时反应不大。 | < W | 贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | GFEX铝 | 452.85 | 8.88% | | PD.GFE | | | | COMEX M-白 | 76.4250 | 7.62% | | QI.CMX | | | | COMEX白银 | 76.420 | 7.61% | | SI.CMX | | | | GFEX铂 | 583.95 | 6.48% | | PT.GFE | | | | NYMEX铂 | 2276.3 | 6.52% | | PL.NYM | | | | 现货铂金(美元/ ...

加勒比地区地缘政治冲突带来的影响还在发酵。 1月3日，康维亚萨航空（Conviasa）通过其微信号发布航班取消通知：由于不可抗因素，原定2026年1月5日3点起 飞的V0771航班（广州飞往加拉加斯）已被取消。 显然，上述不可抗因素，缘于美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制 委总统马杜罗夫妇并将二人带至美国。 当时，美国还发布了对加勒比海空域的限制，包括美国航空在内的多家国际航司取消了数百个航班，导致诸多在 加勒比地区（例如波多黎各、圣马丁、阿鲁巴、多米尼加等）度假的旅客滞留；而委内瑞拉国家航空公司康维亚 萨航空的V0770航班，正在从委内瑞拉飞往广州的途中，并于1月4日上午安全降落。 尽管如此，这条直飞航线依然拉近了中委两国的距离：在没有直飞航班的时候，从广州飞到加拉加斯要至少中转 两次，换乘两家航空公司的航班，耗时最短也要接近40小时。 因此，这条航线也承担着将中国人运往委内瑞拉旅游和经商的重任。康维亚萨航空的官方数据披露，自2024年12 月开航广州以来，截至2025年12月底已成功保障26架次客运航班，将2331名旅客送达目的地；货物吞吐量已超300 吨，大大促进 ...

连续两天调整航班的背后，是这家航司在突如其来的地缘政治事件中面临的纠结：如果客机从中国空载返回委内 瑞拉，意味着近两万公里燃油的白白消耗。 如果不是美国深夜突袭委内瑞拉，可能很少人知道，中国还有直飞委内瑞拉的航线。而与其他洲际航线相比，这 条航线的飞行频率非常低，每两周才往返一次。 之所以频率如此低，是因为这条航线的航程非常长，需要经停莫斯科加油后，才能继续飞往目的地，全程接近30 小时。 加勒比地区地缘政治冲突带来的影响还在发酵。 1月3日，康维亚萨航空（Conviasa）通过其微信号发布航班取消通知：由于不可抗因素，原定2026年1月5日3点起 飞的V0771航班（广州飞往加拉加斯）已被取消。 显然，上述不可抗因素，缘于美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制 委总统马杜罗夫妇并将二人带至美国。 当时，美国还发布了对加勒比海空域的限制，包括美国航空在内的多家国际航司取消了数百个航班，导致诸多在 加勒比地区（例如波多黎各、圣马丁、阿鲁巴、多米尼加等）度假的旅客滞留；而委内瑞拉国家航空公司康维亚 萨航空的V0770航班，正在从委内瑞拉飞往广州的途中，并于1月4日上午安全降落。 ...

来源：中国能源网 北京时间2026年1月3日晚，美国总统特朗普称抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并带离委内瑞拉。稍后 新闻发布会上，特朗普表示，美国将控制委内瑞拉庞大的石油储备，并招募美国公司投资数十亿美元， 以重振该国衰败的石油工业。金联创分析认为，美委冲突升级可能对石油市场带来深刻影响，不过对天 然气市场的直接影响预计有限，多数还是影响到与石油价格挂钩的长协资源上。 委内瑞拉能源背景 因此，美委冲突升级短期来看，供应下滑叠加市场恐慌心态增加，价格有上行风险。但长期来看，可能 会下行。 对我国天然气市场的影响 金联创认为，美委地缘政治冲突升级对我国进口LNG影响相对较小。首先委内瑞拉不出口LNG，其次 委内瑞拉的地理位置也不影响航运。从体量和船运来看，冲突事件对我国LNG进口几乎没有影响。其 次，与委内瑞拉相邻的特立尼达和多巴哥，我国虽然自其进口LNG，但占比也比较小，2025年1-11月， 占比仅有0.4%。 金联创通过公开资料整理，委内瑞拉拥有世界上最大的约3000多亿桶的已探明石油储量。但美国多年来 的制裁导致委内瑞拉石油产量大幅下降，目前委内瑞拉每天仅生产约100万桶石油，约占全球原油产量 的0.8% ...

记者丨 叶映橙,见习记者林健民 市场分析认为， 美国对委内瑞拉发动袭击，叠加近期国际地缘政治事件频发，将推动原油市 场波动加剧。 对于后市，经济学家盘和林向21财经·南财快讯记者表示： "短期将推高油价，长期降低油价， 因为美国石油资本进入会拉高未来委内瑞拉石油出口产能。" 光大期货认为，近期全球陆上及水上库存累库速度虽有所放缓，但绝对库存依然处于高位，维 持对于2026年一季度供需压力较大的判断不变。受地缘事件影响，假期结束后国内市场能化品 种开盘可能出现较大波动，建议投资者密切关注事态进展，做好风险管理。 国金证券石油化工团队认为，当前原油价格仍在地缘冲突与供需过剩的矛盾中博弈，主要支撑 来自地缘因素。 地缘冲突引发的原油价格上涨都将是一时性的，中期将进一步加剧原油过剩 的压力。如委内瑞拉冲突结束，委内瑞拉产量可能修复至110万桶/天以上。 1月2日，美油主力合约收跌0.16%，报57.33美元/桶，周涨1.04%；布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.08%，报60.8美元/桶，周涨0.93%。 大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设施并创造收益。 据新华社报道，委内瑞拉已探明石油储量3 ...