Core Viewpoint - Global market risk appetite continues to rise, with US stocks reaching historical highs as investors focus on upcoming retail data and prepare for the widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut later this year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Asian stock markets have reached record highs, while European stocks opened mixed, and US stock index futures are collectively rising [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the 6600-point mark [2] - The MSCI Asia stock index has achieved a historical high, potentially recording its best consecutive gains in nearly five years [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - August retail sales data is expected to grow by 0.2%, which will provide crucial insights for Federal Reserve decision-making [1] - There is a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with some investors considering the possibility of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 3: Fixed Income and Commodities - US Treasury prices have risen, with the 10-year yield dropping by 1 basis point to 4.03%, as investors bet on an impending rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [6] - Spot gold has increased by $7, currently trading at $3694 per ounce, approaching the $3700 mark [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar movements, inflation data, and changes in market risk appetite [1][3][5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is currently in the overbought zone, indicating that the recent upward trend may require consolidation to alleviate high buying pressure [1] - Initial support levels are established around $3,600 and $3,580, with potential testing of mid-term support areas at $3,565–$3,560 and historical lows at $3,510 if prices break down [1] - Resistance levels are concentrated at recent highs of $3,675 and the psychological barrier of $3,700, which will challenge further upward movement [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy significantly impact gold prices, with recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing lower-than-expected increases, reinforcing expectations for future rate cuts [3] - Anticipation of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August is crucial, as it will provide important insights into inflation trends and monetary policy direction [3] - A CPI reading above expectations may support the dollar, while a lower-than-expected reading could slow the dollar's strengthening [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risk - Market sensitivity to uncertain events can also affect gold prices, as investors tend to increase their focus on safe-haven assets during sudden changes in financial markets, economic data, or the global economic environment [4] - This demand for safety can support gold prices, leading to a defensive characteristic in the short term [5] - The current market is in a phase of waiting for significant data and events, with high-level fluctuations and range-bound movements likely to become the norm [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the A-share margin financing balance has reached a historical high of 23,197 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite and a relatively loose liquidity environment in the A-share market [1] - The analysis from Founder Securities highlights that although the absolute scale of margin financing has surpassed the pre-2015 peak, its proportion relative to the circulating market value and trading volume remains at historical average levels since 2016 [1] - Since September of last year, the overall liquidity in the A-share market has been improving, with a significant increase in trading volume and financing scale reaching historically high levels, particularly since April of this year [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, Founder Securities believes that multiple positive factors will ensure the long-term upward trend of the Chinese capital market remains unchanged, including a stable medium to long-term economic outlook [2] - The low valuation of A-shares presents a compelling value proposition for equity assets [2] - The quality of listed companies is steadily improving, reinforcing the microeconomic foundation [2] - Increasing dividends and share buybacks are enhancing investor returns [2] - Patient capital continues to flow into the market, supporting healthy market development [2]

Core Conclusion - The current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end on May 15, 2026, and the next chairman is likely to be chosen from three candidates: Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, all of whom hold dovish views. The market currently sees Waller as the most probable candidate [1]. Group 1: Appointment Rules - The Federal Reserve Chairman serves a 4-year term and can be reappointed indefinitely, while the term for a Federal Reserve Board member is 14 years, with no possibility of reappointment. The President nominates the chairman, who must be confirmed by a majority vote in the Senate [2]. - Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2026, but he can continue to serve as a board member until January 31, 2028, if he does not seek reappointment [2]. Group 2: Candidates and Their Policy Stances - The three candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman are Waller (current Fed board member), Hassett (current NEC director), and Walsh (former Fed board member). All three are considered dovish and advocate for immediate interest rate cuts [5]. - Waller emphasizes the importance of Fed independence, while Hassett and Walsh show some flexibility regarding this independence, with Walsh suggesting that Fed policy should align with fiscal policy [5][7]. Group 3: Timing of Trump's Nomination - Historically, Trump is expected to nominate the next chairman around February 2026, but given his dissatisfaction with Powell, an earlier nomination is possible to diminish Powell's influence [8]. Group 4: Likelihood of Candidates - As of September 7, Waller has a 36% probability of being nominated, followed by Hassett at 26% and Walsh at 16%. Waller's probability has remained stable over the past month [9][11]. - A survey indicated that professional investors believe Waller and Walsh are more qualified than Hassett, who lacks extensive experience in financial institutions [14]. Group 5: Historical Impact on Asset Classes - Historical data shows that in the three months prior to a new chairman's nomination, U.S. stocks generally perform poorly, while the performance of U.S. Treasury yields is inconsistent, and the dollar index tends to weaken [15]. - After the nomination, U.S. stocks typically see a significant improvement, with Treasury yields rising, although the dollar and gold prices may vary depending on the new chairman's policy stance [15].

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market has shown signs of recovery after a period of decline, with several funds experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - On September 4, the CSI REITs All Return Index rose by 0.42%, with multiple public REITs gaining over 2%, including a 3.1% increase in the China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT [1][2]. - The previous week (August 25-29), the index recorded a 1.06% increase, closing at 1073.33 points [2]. - There is a noticeable differentiation within public REITs, with property-type REITs increasing by 1.55% and franchise-type REITs by 0.87% [2]. Year-to-Date Performance - As of September 4, 54 out of 58 listed REITs have achieved positive returns this year, with the Jia Shi Wu Mei Consumption REIT exceeding a 50% increase [3]. - Other notable performers include the Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT and the Bosera Tian Kai Industrial Park REIT, both with gains over 40% [3]. Market Challenges - The REITs market is currently under short-term pressure due to a high sentiment in the equity market, leading to reduced liquidity and significant index corrections [4]. - Among 47 public REITs, many have reported negative returns over the past 60 trading days, with four REITs experiencing declines exceeding 10% [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the overall revenue of REITs showed a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.5% [6]. - The average cash distribution rate fell to 2.36%, a decline of 50 basis points year-on-year, and the average dividend rate dropped to 2.26%, down 146 basis points [6]. Long-term Investment Perspective - The current market conditions may present good long-term investment opportunities in public REITs, particularly in resilient sectors such as affordable housing and consumption [8][9]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term holding strategy to achieve better returns through reasonable asset allocation [9].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,800 points and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The trading volume in the two markets was less than 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating a slowdown in market activity [1] - The recent increase in margin trading balance by 1.4 billion yuan suggests a slight uptick in leveraged funds entering the market, although the pace has slowed down [1] Investor Sentiment - In August, the number of new A-share accounts reached 2.65 million, a month-on-month increase of 35% and a year-on-year increase of 165% [2][3] - This marks the third consecutive month of growth in new accounts, reflecting strong willingness among retail investors to enter the market [2][3] - The total number of new accounts in the first eight months of the year reached 17.21 million, a year-on-year increase of over 47% [2] Policy Coordination - A joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China discussed financial market operations and government bond issuance management [2] - The meeting emphasized the importance of macro policy coordination, particularly in stabilizing market expectations and ensuring smooth government bond issuance [2] - Improved coordination and mechanisms are expected to promote the healthy development of the bond market and enhance market risk appetite [2] Market Performance - On September 4, the A-share market saw declines across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,765.88 points, down 1.25% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.25% [4] - Among the sectors, retail, beauty care, and banking showed positive performance, while telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors faced significant declines [4] Trading Activity - The market's trading volume was reported at 25,822.18 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance reached 22,898.61 billion yuan, indicating a rise compared to the previous day [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current liquidity-driven environment remains the primary characteristic of the short-term stock market, with changes in market risk appetite dominating market rhythm [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As September approaches, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to materialize, leading to a relatively high level of financing fund enthusiasm, although future inflows may slow down slightly [1] - With the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, the appreciation of the RMB, and the stabilization of domestic PPI, foreign capital may gradually shift towards inflows [1] Group 2: Historical Insights - Historical experience indicates that during the correction phase of a bull market, previously strong styles may experience larger pullbacks, but after a brief correction, the market quickly returns to the previous strong main style [1] Group 3: Market Style Outlook - Based on the analysis, it is believed that the market style in September may lean towards large-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to continue to outperform [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the investment behavior of individual and institutional investors in the market, particularly in relation to different investment styles such as large-cap and small-cap stocks [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Participation Trends**: - Individual investor participation has been gradually increasing since May, with a notable rise in August, although it remains within a healthy range and has not reached historical overheating levels [2]. - In contrast, institutional investor participation has been declining since June, attributed to longer decision-making cycles and lower sensitivity to market downturns [2]. - **Performance of Micro-Cap Style**: - The micro-cap style has shown diminishing advantages, with the Wande Micro-Cap Index's excess returns decreasing from 7.2% in May to approximately -3% in August [3]. - The decline is linked to seasonal effects and the current low crowding score of 1.5 (out of 5), indicating that while valuations are high, the overall volatility among constituent stocks remains normal [3]. - **Growth Style Performance and Future Outlook**: - The growth style has seen a slight increase in trading participation, with no signs of overheating in news sentiment [4]. - A four-quadrant rotation model indicates that small-cap growth stocks are optimal for July and August, driven by a relaxation in market risk appetite and momentum accumulation [4]. - The current market conditions, including low term spreads, favor high-elasticity styles, suggesting that growth may continue to outperform value in the near future [4]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite**: - The overall market sentiment is high, with large-cap trading becoming overheated, while small-cap stocks are expected to perform better in the short term due to favorable conditions [4]. - **Crowding Metrics**: - Institutional crowding metrics are at the 75th percentile, indicating that while there is some level of crowding, it has not reached a warning threshold [3]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of investor participation and the performance of different investment styles in the current market environment.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - **Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].