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【环球财经】一周前瞻:美国6月通胀数据公布,美股再临财报“大考”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 04:08
来源:中国金融信息网 新华财经上海7月13日电(葛佳明) 本周(7月7日至12日),美国关税政策不确定性再起,美股三大指数承压下挫,市场对美国通 胀的担忧推动美元指数震荡上行,非美货币多数下挫,黄金反弹,白银大涨,刷新2011年以来高位。 外汇市场方面,关税政策的不确定性推升美元走势,美元指数本周涨0.91%报97.873;非美货币方面,澳元兑美元本周持续走高,澳 洲联储维持利率不变,超市场预期;英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌,英镑录得六连跌;日元周初大幅下跌后维持区间盘整,本周累计 下跌2%。 大宗商品方面,现货黄金周初区间震荡,一度下破3300关口,但随着关税政策再度刺激市场避险情绪升温,周三黄金持续反弹,本 周累计涨幅达0.62%,收于每盎司3355.7美元,连续第二周上涨;纽约COMEX黄金主力期货合约本周上涨0.82%,收报每盎司3370.5 美元。 现货白银、铂金本周大幅上涨,其中,现货白银本周大涨3.98%,收报每盎司38.406美元;COMEX白银主力合约期货本周累计上涨 5.37%,收报每盎司39.08美元。现货铂金本周突破每盎司1400美元关口,NYMEX铂金期货价格本周累计上涨6.55%,收报 ...
野村:未来几周是关税效应释放的关键窗口,美国滞胀风险加剧,美联储或等到12月才降息
华尔街见闻· 2025-07-12 09:03
在全球贸易摩擦加剧的大背景下,野村警告,全球经济正在驶入未知水域,市场对政策风险的低 估或将成为下半年的一大隐患。 在周四举行的一场面向中国媒体的在线交流会上, 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席 主管Rob Subbaraman 表示, 全球经济正步入一个充满不确定性的"未知领域"。 他指出,从美 联储的政策路径到特朗普政府带来的经济政策变化,再到地缘政治风险升温,全球市场正面临自 金融危机以来少见的多重风险叠加。 Rob警告, 美国将在下半年面临 "通胀回升+增长放缓"的典型滞胀压力,美联储将非常谨慎,直 到12月才会降息,且降息幅度可能低于市场预期。 他特别提醒,目前美国企业因抢进口库存偏高, 关税尚未真正反映到消费者物价中,但随着Q3 企业补库,进口成本上升势必传导至通胀,预计四季度美国核心CPI将反弹至3.3%。 Rob表示: " 我们将在未来几周进入一个关键时刻 ,因为在接下来的几周里,我认为我们将开始看到更多证据表 明关税正在影响美国的经济数据。" 对于特朗普提出任命"影子美联储主席"的想法,Rob认为, 即将到来的关键人事变动可能为此提 供实际通道 : 明年1月底,美联储理事Adrian ...
利空突袭!深夜,大跌!
券商中国· 2025-07-11 15:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on global markets, highlighting increased investor anxiety and potential economic repercussions in the U.S. and Europe [2][7][8]. Market Reactions - European stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Stoxx 600 and Stoxx 50 indices dropping over 1%, while U.S. stock indices also showed weakness, with the Dow Jones down 0.63% and the S&P 500 down 0.38% [2][5]. - Gold prices rebounded as a safe-haven asset, reaching $3,365.7 per ounce, a 1.2% increase, while silver surged 3.14% to $38.47 per ounce, the highest since September 2011 [10]. Economic Indicators - The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, which negatively affected the GBP/USD exchange rate [3][10]. - Analysts warn of rising inflation in the U.S. due to increased import costs from tariffs, predicting a rebound in core CPI to 3.3% in Q4 [4][16]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a phenomenon described as "tariff fatigue" [9][17]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in the trading volume of declining stocks, suggesting an overly optimistic market sentiment that may lead to a mild correction [13][15]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upcoming weeks will be critical in assessing the impact of tariffs on economic data, with potential implications for U.S. monetary policy and corporate earnings [16][17].
野村:未来几周是关税效应释放的关键窗口,美国滞胀风险加剧,美联储或等到12月才降息
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-11 09:17
Core Viewpoint - Nomura warns that the global economy is entering an uncertain phase, with underestimation of policy risks potentially becoming a significant concern in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Economic Outlook - The global economy is facing extreme uncertainty, particularly due to the new U.S. administration's policies and geopolitical risks [3][5]. - The U.S. is expected to experience typical stagflation pressures, with rising inflation and slowing growth, leading the Federal Reserve to be cautious and likely delaying interest rate cuts until December [1][3][5]. - Core CPI in the U.S. is projected to rebound to 3.3% in the fourth quarter due to rising import costs and tariffs impacting consumer prices [1][3][18]. U.S. Trade Policy - Trump's use of tariffs is not solely aimed at reducing the trade deficit but is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical considerations [3][8]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from the EU if high tariffs are imposed is significant, and ongoing negotiations are crucial [9][3]. Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are at their highest in decades, with political influence potentially affecting monetary policy [2][23][27]. - The upcoming vacancies in the Federal Reserve Board may provide Trump with opportunities to influence the central bank's direction [1][23][27]. Inflation Factors - Current low inflation levels in the U.S. are expected to rise due to tariffs, labor shortages from immigration policies, and potential fiscal policy expansions ahead of midterm elections [18][20][21]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is acknowledged, but its deflationary effects are still in early stages and may not significantly counteract inflationary pressures in the short term [29]. Market Sentiment - The market appears overly optimistic regarding the potential outcomes of the trade war, with expectations that tariffs will not significantly impact economic data [20][21]. - There is a notable shift in investment patterns, with a diversification away from U.S. assets towards European markets, driven by geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [31][32].
美联储穆萨莱姆:不要认为美国处于滞胀环境。
news flash· 2025-07-10 14:22
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Musalem emphasizes that the U.S. should not be perceived as being in a stagflation environment [1] Group 1 - Musalem argues that the current economic indicators do not support the notion of stagflation, which is characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve is focused on managing inflation while supporting economic growth, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1] - Musalem highlights that recent economic data shows resilience, suggesting that the U.S. economy is not facing the dire conditions typically associated with stagflation [1]
DLS MARKETS:美联储会被迫在通胀与就业之间重新做选择吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 09:58
Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a complex signal regarding monetary policy amid external shocks, particularly inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3] - If tariff-induced price increases are sustained and exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider maintaining a stricter monetary policy stance, even if core inflation data temporarily declines [3] - The minutes acknowledge a potential "stagflation" scenario where rising inflation coincides with a weakening labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to make difficult trade-offs between inflation and employment targets [3][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the minutes, short-term interest rate futures experienced increased volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty about potential rate cuts in September [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is becoming highly data-dependent, with no clear signals indicating whether inflation expectations are out of control or if there is significant deterioration in employment [4] - The current environment is characterized by political risks, disrupted global supply chains, and misaligned expectations between domestic prices and employment, making upcoming data crucial for future policy decisions [4]
关税战步步紧逼,特朗普屠刀砍向8国,鲍威尔再遭死亡点名!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 05:43
Group 1: Tariff Imposition - The Trump administration announced new tariffs on products from several countries, including a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which exceeded market expectations [2] - Tariffs of 25% will be imposed on products from Brunei and Moldova, 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, and 20% on the Philippines [2] - The announcement led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real, with the USD/BRL exchange rate surpassing 5.60, reflecting a nearly 2.9% increase in the dollar's value [2] Group 2: International Reactions - Leaders from Japan and South Africa expressed regret and deemed the U.S. tariff actions as unreasonable, indicating a potential need for stronger countermeasures [3] - The European Union is preparing to respond to the U.S. tariffs, with ongoing disputes primarily focused on specific industries such as steel, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [3] - Analysts suggest that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration may accelerate a trend of "de-Americanization" as countries reassess their economic dependencies on the U.S. [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Criticism - The Trump administration intensified criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming that current interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [4] - If the Fed were to lower rates as Trump suggested, it would bring rates down to a range of 1.25%-1.50%, the lowest in three years [5] - The administration's criticism is linked to rising national debt levels due to the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, prompting urgency in addressing interest rates [6]
美股“金发姑娘”面临三大风险! 高盛警示滞胀、长债风暴与美元大滑坡
智通财经网· 2025-07-10 02:30
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, has experienced a rapid recovery driven by strong performances from major tech companies amid an unprecedented AI boom, but faces significant risks that could disrupt this optimistic environment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6263 points, up 29% from its April low, nearing its historical peak of 6284 points [1]. - The MSCI global index also reached a historical high, influenced by the AI surge and easing geopolitical tensions, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 2: Economic Risks - Goldman Sachs identified three key risks threatening the "Goldilocks" market environment: economic stagnation or downturn, rising long-term bond yields, and a disordered decline of the dollar [2][6]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by high risk appetite, despite the S&P 500 reaching record highs, indicating a potential for negative asymmetry in the short term [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - To mitigate the identified risks, Goldman Sachs recommends diversifying into gold, select emerging markets, short-duration bonds, low-volatility defensive stocks, and financial stocks [2][7]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of hedging against potential declines in the dollar and inflationary pressures, as well as preparing for possible turbulence in the bond market due to rising yields [6][7].
美联储降息决策面临复杂局面 FOMC内部分歧日益浮现
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 07:28
美联储6月会议纪要将于周三公布,市场关注FOMC内部对降息时点与节奏的详细讨论。 当前市场定价已反映美联储年内两次降息,任何超预期信号都将引发重新定价。会议纪要若呈现鸽派基 调,市场或进一步计价9月降息。若后续经济数据向好,9月降息概率亦可能下降。 6月会议的点阵图显示了美联储内部明显的分歧。一些政策制定者预计今年将有两次降息,而另一些人 则预测根本不会降息。摩根士丹利分析师表示,他们将寻找导致这种分歧的线索。更鹰派的委员可能会 表示,他们正在等待失业率上升,或者他们需要更多时间来评估关税和其他财政政策对通胀的影响。而 美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示,他预计关税的通胀效应将在今年夏天显现,并暗示美联储与宽松政策之间的 唯一障碍是这些价格压力的不确定性。如果会议纪要显示出对这一观点的部分认同,它可能标志着美联 储转向更积极主动的立场。 近期特朗普频繁批评鲍威尔降息迟缓,美联储理事沃勒与鲍曼先后提及7月降息可能性,引发市场对提 前行动的预期升温。沃勒指出招聘放缓迹象,初请与续请失业金人数持续上升支持其观点。鲍曼在6月 会议后罕见放鸽,与当时声明中"通胀上行、增长放缓"基调形成反差。沃勒与鲍曼此前并非典型鸽派, 其转变令市 ...
惊天警告!各国央行都开始担心美国“赖账”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-08 06:07
瑞银集团委托进行的一项对央行储备管理者的调查发现,近半数受访者认为美国进行债务重组是一个可 能的情景。 或许正因如此,多元化仍然是储备管理者们所坚持的一项基本信条,他们中几乎所有人都看好黄金, 67%的受访者认为黄金是当前至本十年末表现最佳的资产类别,而2024年的调查中这一比例仅为21%。 没有受访者计划在未来12个月内减少其黄金敞口,略超三分之一的受访者报告在去年增加了持有量。 对美国风险资产来说,一个更积极的消息是,80%的受访者预测美元仍将是世界储备货币,但同时也观 察到,储备多元化的驱动力正变得更强。话虽如此,去年美元持有量的平均份额实际上还增加了一个百 分点,达到56%。 其他可能令投资者警惕的发现包括,三分之二的受访者对美联储的独立性感到担忧,近半数受访者对美 国经济数据的质量以及法治正在减弱的看法感到不安。 尽管地缘政治仍是各国央行的主要关切,但它已被特朗普政府对贸易和国际联盟的政策所产生的潜在影 响所取代,成为首要风险,有74%的受访者提到了这一点。他们可能想到了4月份,当时特朗普在宣布 其"解放日"关税时,断言贸易战的进行和取胜都"简单直接"。令人惊讶的是,考虑到这个受访群体,经 济问题被 ...