Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

2025.12.17 本文字数：2041，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 中央经济工作会议定调明年继续实施更加积极财政政策之后，备受关注的财政政策实施细节逐步明晰。 近日，中央财办有关负责同志接受新华社采访解读中央经济工作会议精神，进一步阐述了明年继续实施 更加积极财政政策的内涵，体现在三个层面： •政策力度上，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间， 也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增强 地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 •政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性。优化财政支出结构，强化国家重大战略财力保障，推动更多资金 资源投资于人。统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。同时，严肃财经纪律，坚 持党政机关过紧日子。 •实施时机上，主动靠前发力。合理加快资金下达拨付，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 在当前外部形势复杂、内需不足等挑战之下，外界对财政政策关注焦点之一正是政策实施力度。 2025年中国首次定调财政政策"更加积极"，力度空前。2025年财政赤字率从2024年的3%提高至4%历史 高 ...

2025.12. 17 本文字数：2041，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 在当前外部形势复杂、内需不足等挑战之下，外界对财政政策关注焦点之一正是政策实施力度。 2025年中国首次定调财政政策"更加积极"，力度空前。2025年财政赤字率从2024年的3%提高至 4%历史高位；新增政府债务总规模约12万亿元，比2024年增加近3万亿元；全国一般公共预算支出 预计29.7万亿元。 此次中央定调明年继续实施更加积极财政政策。接受第一财经采访的专家普遍预计，2026年财政赤 字率有望维持在4%左右，2026年新增政府债务总规模会超过12万亿元，在13万亿至16万亿元之 间。2026年全国一般公共预算支出预计超过30万亿元，增速与经济增速相近。上述财政政策细节最 终将在明年全国两会期间揭晓。 明年更加积极的财政政策保持一定的力度，但也不会"大水漫灌"。中央财办有关负责人也强调，在 政策力度上也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。 中央经济工作会议定调明年继续实施更加积极财政政策之后，备受关注的财政政策实施细节逐步明 晰。 近日，中央财办有关负责同志接受新华社采访解读中央经济工作会议精神，进一步阐述了 ...

中央经济工作会议定调明年继续实施更加积极财政政策之后，备受关注的财政政策实施细节逐步明晰。 近日，中央财办有关负责同志接受新华社采访解读中央经济工作会议精神，进一步阐述了明年继续实施 更加积极财政政策的内涵，体现在三个层面： ·政策力度上，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间， 也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增强 地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 ·政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性。优化财政支出结构，强化国家重大战略财力保障，推动更多资金 资源投资于人。统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。同时，严肃财经纪律，坚 持党政机关过紧日子。 ·实施时机上，主动靠前发力。合理加快资金下达拨付，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。 在当前外部形势复杂、内需不足等挑战之下，外界对财政政策关注焦点之一正是政策实施力度。 2025年中国首次定调财政政策"更加积极"，力度空前。2025年财政赤字率从2024年的3%提高至4%历史 高位；新增政府债务总规模约12万亿元，比2024年增加近3万亿元；全国一般公共预算支出预计 ...

2025年12月17日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.494 | 105.785 | 105.785 | 107.870 | 107.900 | 111.53 | 111.75 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.024 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.020 | -0.140 | ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand as a priority for economic work in the coming year [1][5] - The government plans to increase the scale of central budget investment and optimize the management of local government special bonds to stimulate private investment [1][6] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will see the acceleration of strategic emerging industries and future industry projects, supported by sufficient financial tools and special bond reserves [1][6] Group 2 - In November, the social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with a notable contribution from non-standard financing and corporate bond financing [2][3] - The contribution of credit to social financing decreased, with new RMB loans of 4,053 billion yuan in November, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the macro economy [2][3] - Non-standard financing increased significantly, with corporate bond financing reaching 4,169 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards direct financing [3][4] Group 3 - The industrial added value maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [5][6] - The demand for equipment updates remains strong due to trends in digitalization and automation, with policies supporting large-scale equipment updates expected to be implemented in 2024 [6] - The central economic work conference highlights the importance of combining "investment in people" and "investment in materials" to unlock significant potential [1][6] Group 4 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, although it showed a decline compared to October [7] - The government plans to implement actions to boost consumption and develop a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income [7] - The overall resilience of foreign trade has supported stable economic growth, but challenges remain for the upcoming year, necessitating stable exchange rates to promote exports [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability while seeking progress, advocating for continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as a primary option, indicating the urgency to boost internal consumption through various measures [4] - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in consumption and infrastructure investment, driven by supportive policies [4][5] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting outlines a direction for maintaining a loose monetary environment, with a flexible approach to using various policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3] - A more proactive fiscal policy is proposed, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [3] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with plans to implement income increase strategies for urban and rural residents, aiming to stimulate consumption [4] - The report suggests that traditional infrastructure sectors may see a recovery in profitability due to policy support [4] Anti-Competition Measures - The report indicates an increased effort to combat "involution" in competition, which is expected to restore profitability in related industries [4] - A unified national market construction regulation is anticipated, which will help maintain a healthy competitive environment [4] Investment Strategy - The overall economic outlook for the next year is positive, with both fiscal and monetary policies expected to support a stable stock market [5] - The report identifies consumer sectors as having potential for marginal improvement in 2026, alongside a recovery in traditional industries due to anti-competition policies [5]

1-11 月地产链数据联合解读 20251215 2025 年 1-11 月房地产市场数据表现如何？对未来市场有何展望？ 2025 年 1-11 月的房地产市场数据显示，整体环比增长但同比负增长。累计值 显示跌幅扩大，主要原因是去年基数较高，且缺乏明显政策刺激。预计 2026 年一季度数据仍将承压，因为 25 年 3 月前的数据偏高，而 26 年 3 月后才进入 低基数期。4 月份的政治局会议可能出台政策，从而改善后续数据和经济效果。 对于 2025 年的销售面积和销售金额有何看法？ 目前销售面积和销售金额分别为 7 万多亿人民币。如果按历史经验推算，12 月 的单月值大约是 11 月的 1.5 至 1.6 倍，因此全年总额应在 8.2 至 8.3 万亿人 民币之间。从宏观人口测算和存量资产更新来看，这一数值具备较强支撑空间。 因此，在供给侧改革持续推进下，预计 2026 年进入 8 万亿区间时，市场修复 能力和稳定性将增强。 二手房市场现状及未来趋势如何？ 摘要 2026 年一季度数据预计承压，受 2025 年同期高基数影响，需关注 4 月政治局会议可能出台的政策，以改善后续经济数据。 预计 2025 年全 ...

"金融总量数据充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态。"业内专家表示，当前社会融资规模和M2增速比 名义GDP增速高出约一倍，充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融 总量环境。 积极财政政策发力 支撑金融总量合理增长 业内专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也 为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。特别是随着财政赤字率提升，政府债券对社会融资规模的贡献度明显 提高。数据显示，今年新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，普通国债、特别国债 和地方政府专项债额度都明显增加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。 "政府债券发行节奏明显提前，实现了早发行、早使用、早见效。"有业内人士表示，目前1.3万亿元的 超长期特别国债已全部发行完毕，2万亿元用于偿还存量隐性债务的再融资专项债和4.4万亿元主要用于 项目建设的新增专项债也已基本发完。近期财政部宣布提前下达2026年新增地方政府专项债务限额，会 更好衔接岁末年初的项目资金建设需求。初步测算，今年我国政府债券净融资额有望突破12万亿元，政 府债券融资占社会融资规模增量比重达四成。政 ...

有关专家表示，近年来，中国人民银行不断丰富工具箱，发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功 能，持续引导金融机构提升金融产品和服务对经济结构转型升级的适配性，特别是围绕做好金融"五篇 大文章"以及支持扩大内需等要求，把更多信贷资源投向国民经济重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节，促 进金融与实体经济良性互动。 "积极发展股权、债券等直接融资，是'十五五'规划建议锚定加快建设金融强国目标作出的明确部 署。"业内专家表示，直接融资具有风险共担、利益共享与长期陪伴的特征，与高成长、重研发、轻资 产的新动能领域更为契合，未来将在金融体系中发挥更重要的作用。 贷款规模保持合理增长、质效提升 12月12日，央行发布最新金融统计数据。数据显示，截至2025年11月末，广义货币（M2）余额 336.99万亿元，同比增长8.0%，比上年同期高0.9个百分点，在上年同期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较 高增速；狭义货币（M1）余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同 比增长10.6%。社会融资规模存量440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%，比上年同期高0.7个百分点。1至11 月，社会融资规模增量为33.3 ...