Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Tax Cut" bill was passed by the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 votes in favor and 214 against, with all Democrats and two Republicans opposing it[14] - The bill is projected to increase the deficit by $3-4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $1 trillion in spending cuts and $4-5 trillion in tax reductions[19] Key Provisions - The bill includes tax reforms such as extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions, reducing medical and food assistance, and increasing military spending[15][18] - It proposes to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, allowing for increased government borrowing[19] Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices declining by 2.47% and 2.61% respectively during the week of May 17-24, 2025[6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, reflecting ongoing concerns about debt demand and inflation[6] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global PMI for May showed better-than-expected expansion, with manufacturing and services PMIs both at 52.3, indicating economic resilience despite tariff risks[31] - Natural gas prices surged by 11.16%, contributing to a general increase in commodity prices, while Bitcoin rose by 3.78%[6] Risks and Uncertainties - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential for a hard landing if employment and consumption metrics deteriorate significantly[34] - Policy uncertainties persist, particularly regarding the Trump administration's fiscal strategies and potential changes in tariff negotiations[34]

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, indicating stable and rapid growth in major economic indicators [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in the sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, which rose by 38.8% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a month-on-month increase of 0.10%, reflecting a stable investment environment [1] Investment and Trade - The investment in equipment and tools from January to April increased by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [2] - Despite external shocks, China's total goods import and export volume grew by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] High-tech and New Energy Sectors - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 10% year-on-year in April, with aerospace equipment and integrated circuit manufacturing growing by 21.4% and 21.3%, respectively [3] - Production of new energy products, such as electric vehicles and charging piles, surged by 38.9% and 43.1%, respectively, highlighting the rapid development of the green low-carbon transition [3] Policy and Future Outlook - Recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial tools, aim to support technological innovation and expand consumption [4] - Analysts expect that as policy effects continue to manifest, consumption will strengthen, further supporting investment growth [4] - The economic operation is anticipated to improve moderately in May and June, with a focus on effectively utilizing existing policies [4]

Group 1 - China's economy demonstrated significant resilience in April, with multiple core indicators showing positive changes despite a complex international environment and ongoing tariff wars [4][24]. - The recovery of domestic demand and the trend of consumption structure upgrading are evident, with notable increases in service consumption and high-end products such as travel and luxury goods [7][11]. Group 2 - Industrial growth showed remarkable resilience, particularly in high-tech industries, with industrial value-added and manufacturing growth exceeding 6%, and a significant increase in the production of new energy vehicles [11][14]. - Foreign trade resilience is highlighted by the growth of high-tech manufacturing profits, which supported the quality and efficiency of the industrial economy, despite tariff pressures [14][16]. Group 3 - The overall price and financial environment remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a shift from decline to increase, and financial support for the real economy being continuously strengthened [18][21]. - The economic data from April indicates that China is cultivating new momentum amid challenges, with consumption recovery, optimized export structure, and precise policy support being core drivers [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "economic resilience" in the context of global industrial chain restructuring and the ongoing US-China competition, suggesting that this resilience is crucial for entrepreneurs to innovate and reconstruct competitive advantages [3]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - Economic resilience has become a core theme in major power competition, serving as a strategic foundation for entrepreneurs to innovate and gain competitive advantages [3]. - The article references Japan's experience during its "lost three decades," highlighting how its long-standing companies have developed resilience through cultural integration, risk diversification, and avoiding chaotic expansion [3]. Group 2: Learning Journey - The article introduces a six-day, five-night study tour in Japan, designed to explore the resilience of Japanese businesses and their growth models, which are particularly relevant for Chinese entrepreneurs [3][4]. - Participants will visit five Japanese companies across various sectors, including healthcare, precision manufacturing, and sustainable development, to understand their strategies for overcoming low-growth challenges and aging population issues [7]. Group 3: Knowledge Sharing - The study tour includes sessions with industry experts discussing key topics such as value creation in low-growth environments and global branding strategies, aiming to provide a systematic understanding of how to balance technology and innovation [16]. - The program will take place partly at the University of Tokyo, allowing participants to engage in a rich academic environment while learning from real-world business cases [16]. Group 4: Cultural Experience - The tour incorporates cultural experiences, such as tea ceremonies and traditional crafts, to deepen participants' understanding of Japanese business resilience and foster connections among diverse professionals [21]. - The concept of "一期一会" (ichigo ichie), which emphasizes the uniqueness of each encounter, is highlighted as a guiding principle for the study tour, encouraging participants to value their interactions and shared experiences [21].

"真的完全不清楚应该怎么做""货币政策根本无从下手""无法判断最终结果会是怎样。"本周，美联储连续第三次决定不降息后，其主席鲍威尔说了这几句 话。是什么，让美国央行一把手都"懵圈"了？我是党报评论员，今天给你解读。 美国政府挥舞关税大棒，如今自食恶果——供应链断裂，物价飙升！有美国记者追问："我们只能看着工人失业吗？"工会领袖的回答就一个词 儿："yeah！"这一幕，也成为美国经济困局的生动写照。 皮球踢到美联储，鲍威尔正面临两难境地：降息怕通胀脱缰，不降又怕经济崩盘。这边美联储按兵不动，那边白宫却频频施压要求降息，指责鲍威尔 是"迟到先生"(Mr.Too Late)和"首席败将"(a Major Loser)。鲍威尔估计也是一肚子气：你瞎征关税，经济出了毛病，让我当背锅侠？ 关税战没有赢家。但有的国家乱成一锅粥，有的国家却能应对有方。前一阵子，在中国义乌的一家工厂里，谈到贸易战，一个工人反问："你以为我们怕 美国吗？"另一些工人称"影响肯定有""最终能扛过去"。这段对话被记录下来，发表在美国《大西洋月刊》上，让很多美国人陷入深思：为什么中国人能 这么有底气？ 我觉得啊，这里边儿的原因至少有两个。 一个是经济 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：2025年经济韧性恐怕会不及之前预料的那么乐观。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that economic resilience in 2025 is expected to be lower than previously anticipated [1] Economic Outlook - Bostic's comments suggest a downward revision in economic forecasts for 2025, highlighting concerns about the strength of the economy [1] - The anticipated economic conditions may lead to adjustments in monetary policy and interest rates [1]

亚特兰大联储主席BOSTIC表示，2025年经济韧性将低于早先预期。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：截至第一季度，通胀逐步但不均衡地回落至2%的路径仍在进行中，经济表现具有韧 性。 ...

亚开行总裁神田真人 亚开行总裁神田真人5月4日表示，亚洲各国"拥有开放的经济结构，容易受到（美国关税政策的） 冲击"…… 亚洲开发银行（ADB）总裁神田真人于5月4日召开记者会，就美国的关税政策表达警惕 称，"这是前所未有的不确定性，不可掉以轻心"。同时表示，亚洲各国"拥有开放的经济结 构，容易受到冲击"。 当天，亚开行年会在意大利米兰开幕。神田总裁强调："对于亚洲和太平洋各国而言，这也是 一个与地区内伙伴以及新伙伴之间加强合作，提高经济复苏能力、韧性和开放性的机会"。 围绕美国的关税政策，日美两国政府于当地时间5月1日在美国首都华盛顿举行了部长级磋 商，日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正参加了此次磋商。5月2日，又根据部长级磋商的情况，在 华盛顿举行了事务级别会议。日本外务省和经济产业省的课长级别官员参加了会议。 赤泽亮正将于长假结束后的5月7日出席自民党的综合对策本部会议，对日美磋商的一系列过 程进行说明。 美国的关税政策已成为影响整个亚洲经济的风险因素。再加上中国经济增长停滞，各国正在 逐渐失去有前景的出口市场。在5月4日开幕的亚开行年会上，通过扩大自由贸易来分散风险 等内容成为主要讨论议题。日本方面由财务相加 ...