我们再来看看板块的情况：军工板块涨幅居前。有机构在研报中表示，2025年一季度主动型基金前十大 军工股持有流入总市值绝对值的前十中，军工电子板块标的占80%。过去三年军工电子板块较其他军工 子板块超跌较多，在长尾效应下周期反弹锐度或将凸显，板块景气度修复时或成为先选。 房地产板块开盘冲高，一度大涨。消息面上，"央妈"在发布会上公布，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25个百分点，5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。再加上五一假期多 地楼市活跃度提升，在一定程度上反映了市场信心的修复情况，也表明在政策利好叠加效应下，住房需 求得到进一步的释放。 化工股震荡走强。有研报表示，2024年以来行业固定资产投资增速明显放缓，综合整治"内卷式"恶性竞 争写入2025年工作报告，供给端逐步迎来边际改善。 A股高开低走，今晚美联储利率决议来袭，明天会怎么走？今天市场的走势，还是没有脱离"魔咒"，但 凡高开幅度大的，低走就是大概率事件，又一次演绎了高开低走。盘面上看，军工股震荡走强，化工板 块再度活跃，地产板块开盘冲高后震荡回落。昨天领涨的科技股方向陷入分化，机器人方向局部活跃， AI概念股集体 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, indicating a cautious approach amid trade tensions [1][2] - Market participants are eager to understand the future direction of interest rates following the Fed's upcoming meeting [1][2] - There is a notable divergence between "hard data" and "soft data," suggesting that Powell may adopt a wait-and-see stance [2]

Group 1 - International gold prices rose on May 6, closing at $3431.54 per ounce, an increase of $97.35 or 2.92% from the previous day, with a daily high of $3434.80 and a low of $3323.14 [1] - As of May 6, the gold ETF holdings were reported at 937.96 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in market bullish sentiment towards gold [2] - The total value of gold ETF holdings on May 6 was approximately $102.23 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous day's value of about $98.11 billion [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has advanced the nomination of Michelle Bowman for the position of Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lead to more lenient banking regulations compared to her predecessor [2] - Market expectations suggest that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may not provide clear guidance in his upcoming press conference, as uncertainties regarding tariffs and their impact on inflation and the economy persist [3] - Analysts predict that this uncertainty will continue until the Federal Reserve's June meeting unless significant changes occur [3] Group 3 - Recent trading analysis indicates that gold prices have shown a strong rebound, supported by a reversal signal and mid-line support, suggesting a bullish trend remains intact [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a low-buy strategy for precious metals [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market rose strongly on Tuesday, influenced by factors such as strong domestic buying demand after the May Day holiday, concerns about potential US tariffs on imported drugs, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the escalation of the India-Pakistan situation. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield also boosted precious metal valuations, while the slowdown of the US stock market rally reflected a decrease in risk appetite. The market focus has shifted to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. In the short term, precious metals may remain volatile at high levels but are expected to be in an upward-trending pattern. The medium to long term is also expected to be bullish [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Gold 2506 contract closed at $3441.8 per ounce, up 3.6%; US silver 2507 contract closed at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.96%. SHFE gold 2506 main contract closed at 797.2 yuan per gram, up 1.39%; SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8235 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% [2]. - SHFE gold main continuous contract was at 794.8 yuan per gram, up 1.86%; SGX gold TD was at 792.87 yuan per gram, up 1.72%; CME gold main contract was at $3441.8 per ounce, up 2.94%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was at 8235 yuan per kilogram, up 0.65%; SGX silver TD was at 8221 yuan per kilogram, up 0.71%; CME silver main contract was at $33.435 per ounce, up 2.33%. SHFE - TD gold was at 1.93 yuan per gram, up 141.25%; SHFE - TD silver was at 14 yuan per kilogram, up 5.56%. CME gold - silver ratio was at 102.94, up 0.6% [5]. Fund Holdings and Inventories - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.43 tons to 937.96 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 13958.7 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 959.8 tons; as of the week ending April 25, SGX silver inventory decreased by 42.8 tons to 1640.1 tons [3]. - SHFE gold inventory was 15648 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1263.0356 tons, down 0.69%. SHFE gold position was 127407 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold position was 937.96 tons, down 0.15%. SHFE silver inventory was 959.785 tons, up 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15592.713 tons, up 0.13%. SGX silver inventory was 1640.07 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position was 232016 lots, unchanged; SLV silver position was 13958.73495 tons, unchanged [15][16]. This Week's Focus - New Fed journalist Nick Timiraos wrote that the Fed will be more inclined to "control inflation" in the face of the dilemma of economic recession and inflation pressure and may not cut interest rates without clear signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and an increase in the unemployment rate. Investors are turning their attention to the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Although this interest rate decision is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged, investors are concerned about Powell's forward - looking guidance on future interest rate cuts at the press conference. This week's data is generally light. There will be a series of events including the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference early Thursday, the Bank of England's interest rate decision and related reports in the evening, and several speeches by Fed officials on Friday. Also, pay attention to the progress of global trade war negotiations [3]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, it may be bullish. Gold's monthly chart remains strong, and the daily chart has turned strong. In the short term, London gold should focus on the resistance at $3430. If it breaks through, it can be further expected to reach $3500, with support at $3350 and strong support at $3200. London silver's trend is slightly weaker than that of gold, and it is short - term range - bound, with support at $32 and resistance at $33.7. If it breaks through, it can be expected to reach $34 and $34.5. Short - term pullbacks are still regarded as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities [4]. Other Market Indicators - The US dollar index was at 99.2342, down 0.56%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.2097, up 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 41218.83 points, down 0.24%. WTI crude oil spot was at $59.09 per barrel, up 3.43%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9356 per ton, up 1.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.36%, up 0.69%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 2.04%, down 1.92%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 6% [21].

黄金周二（5月6日）早盘直接强势大涨，在触及3387附近后受阻调整，午后在3350附近企稳开始震荡上涨，美盘延续上涨走势，一直持续到收盘，日线收出 一根大阳线。 一、基本面 特朗普宣布对外国制作电影征收100%关税，引发市场对贸易局势的担忧，同时OPEC+增产消息导致能源和油气板块跌超1.7%，美股各板块ETF普遍收跌， 这些因素使得避险情绪重回市场，资金流向黄金寻求避险，推动金价上涨。此外，中美贸易谈判、美日贸易谈判陷入僵局，中东地区地缘问题反复，也进一 步加剧了市场的不确定性和避险情绪，对黄金价格形成支撑。 从日线级别来看，黄金价格此前在3500整数关口遭遇强劲阻力，随即开启调整走势。值得关注的是，本周连续两个交易日，金价均以大阳线报收，这一强势 表现直接收复了前期大部分跌幅，尽显多头力量的强劲。与此同时，均线系统也释放出积极信号，整体向上拐头，5日均线与10日均线形成粘合后交金叉。 在当前行情下，今日需着重留意黄金上涨动能能否持续。下方关键支撑区域位于3330-3320区间，该位置不仅是5日均线与10日均线当前所处位置，更是昨日 盘中低点所在，其支撑有效性将对后续行情发展起到关键作用。 从四小时级别来看 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 9 AM today to introduce a "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision at 2 AM the following day [1]

据悉，红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）是目前A股市场仅有的两只百亿元红利主题ETF 品种，最新规模分别达218.44亿元、158.36亿元。受益于标的指数成分股2025年来现金分红水平的持续 提升，截至4月30日，红利指数、红利低波指数的最新股息率（近12个月）分别为6.90%、6.59%，高于 近十年93.79%、95.93%的时间。（数据来源：交易所、Wind、上市公司公告） 当地时间2025年5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议。在"关税风波"尚未渐息之际，美联储政策的不确 定性或同样成为近期扰动市场的主要因素之一，随着市场情绪反复拉锯，资金对具备较强防御属性红利 类资产颇为青睐。 其中，目前A股市场两只百亿级红利主题类ETF头部品种——红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF （512890）交投高度活跃，4月30日全日成交额分别为3.57亿元、8.08亿元，较前一交易日大幅增长 46%、188%。（数据来源：交易所） 年初以来（截至2025年4月30日），红利ETF（510880）、红利低波ETF（512890）累计吸引6.4亿元、 22.4亿元资金净流入，红利低波ETF（ ...

上周，现货黄金市场经历剧烈波动，周线下跌2.28%，收于3240.60美元，较4月22日创下的历史高点 3500.05美元回落约7%。今日欧市盘中，黄金大幅上涨，目前在3257美元附近徘徊。 特朗普重大宣布！ 上周，经济数据暂缓市场担忧，美三大指数集体收涨，最终道指涨3%，标普500指数涨2.92%，纳指涨 3.42%。 本周，全球金融市场即将迎来"美联储时刻"。 当地时间5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议，目前市场一致预期，美联储将按兵不动。 芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率高达97.2%，降息25个基点的概率为2.8%； 美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为65.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34%，累计降息50个基点的概率 为0.9%。 因此，下周美联储利率决议最大的看点或许是美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。有分析人士警告称，鲍 威尔可能会以"鹰派"基调反驳美联储将受到美国白宫影响的说法，这可能导致美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔 冲突再度升级。 此前，特朗普再次表示不会罢免鲍威尔。 当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）采访时，再次批评了美联储主席 鲍威尔不降低 ...

5月5日，离岸人民币盘中一度升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，创近半年以来新高。 Wind行情显示，上周五离岸人民币开启大涨，日内上涨近700点。本周一上涨继续，离岸人民币一度攀升至7.1891，创去年11月12日以来新高。 | < W | 美元指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDX.FX | | | | | | 99.7490 | 前收 | | | 99.9947 开盘 | | | -0.2934 | -0.29% | 英品 | 99.7490 | 99.7490 买入 | | | 最高 | 100.0524 | 今年来 | -8.05% | 20 日 日 -3.63% | | | 最低 | 99.6258 1.42% | 10 日 | | 60 日 -7.92% | | | 分时 | | | 五日 日K | | | | 晉加 | | | | | | | 100.4590 | | | | | 0.42% | | 100.0424 | | | | | 0.00% | | 99.6258 | | | | | -0.42% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamentals show a marginal recovery trend, but the foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations are to be further strengthened. Overseas, there are signs of economic slowdown in the US, and the Fed's policy still leans towards combating inflation. The bond market is likely to return to the fundamental - driven logic, with the interest rate center having room to decline. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities [97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2503, T2503, TF2503, TS2503) rose by 0.90%, 0.21%, 0.16%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased. The positions of TS and TL main contracts decreased, while those of TF and T main contracts increased [9][19][25]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed overall upward trends, with different increases for different maturities [13][19]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On April 28, six departments including the Ministry of Commerce optimized the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers. The Politburo meeting proposed to stabilize and activate the capital market. "Second - home to first - home" can enjoy special tax deductions for housing loan interest. On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement [31]. - **Overseas News**: The IMF lowered the GDP growth forecast for Asia this year to 3.9%. The US Treasury plans to net borrow $514 billion in the second quarter. The US consumer confidence index in April was at a new low since May 2020 [32]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y Treasury yields narrowed. The spreads between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures all narrowed slightly [38][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract increased [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yield**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate declined. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.78%. The yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities decreasing by 0.5 - 3bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 3bp and 5bp to 1.62% and 1.86% respectively [68]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.1503 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 735.8 billion yuan. The capital shortage situation improved [77]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 593.747 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 669.751 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 76.004 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2014, with a cumulative increase of 52 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [84]. - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly this week [89]. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly this week [94]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Fundamentals and Policy**: The domestic economy is in a marginal recovery, but the foundation needs to be consolidated. Overseas, the US economy shows signs of slowdown. The bond market is expected to return to the fundamental - driven logic, and the interest rate center may decline. Attention should be paid to the coordinated effect of the potential Fed rate - cut in June and the domestic RRR - cut window [97]. - **Investment Strategy**: Given the current differentiation between short - and long - term Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities. If the short - end does not stabilize, beware of the risk of long - end decline due to the correction of term spreads [97].