瑞士央行在今年上半年已将政策利率降至零，成功促使通胀率回到正值区间。然而，6月份消费者物价指数（CPI）年增长率仅为0.1%， 仍处于低位。这一数据使得市场纷纷预期，瑞士央行可能在9月份再次降息25个基点，若成真，瑞士将重新踏入负利率时代。但需要注意 的是，瑞士经济在2025年第一季度已现复苏迹象，并且瑞士央行设定的通胀目标区间为0%至2%。基于此，短期内实施大幅宽松政策的 紧迫性似乎并不高。当下，市场最为关注的是，如果瑞郎持续走强，瑞士央行是否会出手干预外汇市场，以维护国内经济稳定与物价平 稳。 数据显示，2025年第一季度瑞士央行外汇净买入额仅4900万瑞郎，态度较为温和。这一策略与近年来瑞士央行转向"强瑞郎"的操作相 符。回顾过往，为抑制输入型通胀，瑞士央行曾大规模购入瑞郎；而更早之前，为推动通胀回升，其策略倾向于压低瑞郎汇率。由此可 见，瑞士央行具备灵活调整策略的能力，一旦形势需要，能够迅速改变干预规模与方向。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）近期向瑞士央行发出警告，提醒其在资产负债表膨胀的情况下，谨慎使用货币政策工具。特别是在通缩压力 或为暂时现象的背景下，过度降息或扩大资产购买规模，可能会带来诸多副作用 ...

金十数据7月4日讯，瑞银全球财富管理分析师在一份报告中称，瑞郎近期的强势反映出在7月9日美国对 等关税暂停结束前对避险资产的需求。他们表示，即使瑞郎在最后期限当天继续走强，涨幅也将是有限 的。他们表示，欧元/瑞郎不太可能在较长时间内跌破0.9250。 在关税截止日期前，瑞士法郎受到避险资金的提振 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed strong performance, with 147,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained low at 233,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, which boosts the economic outlook for the U.S. [1] - This data has strengthened the U.S. dollar and suppressed gold prices, while also reducing market expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could rise to levels seen on April 2, affecting around 100 countries with at least 10% reciprocal tariffs [1] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House indicates a trend towards expansionary fiscal policy, potentially supporting the economy and lowering safe-haven demand [1] - The Atlanta Fed President indicated that the U.S. economy may experience prolonged high inflation, reinforcing market expectations for sustained high interest rates, which increases the holding cost of gold [1] - Discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Middle East and Ukraine, along with plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, have eased geopolitical risks, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has shown a bearish trend after retreating from its high, currently facing pressure from the non-farm data, trading below the 20 and 60-period moving averages [4] - The price is under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, with potential further resistance from the upper Bollinger Band as time progresses [4] - The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term pullback in gold prices [4] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended around 3338.2, with a stop loss at 3345.0 and targets set at 3311.5 to 3283.5 [5] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is currently in a weekly oscillation phase, with the recent non-farm data exerting downward pressure on bullish momentum [8] - The price is facing strong resistance near the upper boundary of the weekly oscillation and the previous high of 37.06, indicating potential obstacles for upward movement [8] - The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, suggesting weakness in the market [8] Trading Strategy for Silver - A short position is suggested around 36.97, with a stop loss at 37.20 and targets set at 36.49 to 36.16 [9]

Market Overview - The gold wholesale market in Jinan is experiencing a stark contrast, with more sales staff than customers, indicating a cooling demand despite rising prices [3][5] - The price of gold has recently surpassed 1000 yuan per gram, leading to a surge in customers opting for "old for new" exchanges, with small weight gold items selling over 50,000 pieces [1][8] Price Trends - Multiple brands have raised their gold prices, with current prices ranging from 1005 to 1010 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of nearly 200 yuan from the previous year's average of 810 yuan [9][8] - Discounts are being offered by various brands to boost sales, with reductions of 50 to 70 yuan per gram being common [9] Consumer Behavior - The rising gold prices have led to a decrease in purchasing intentions among consumers, even among those with wedding-related needs [5][6] - Many consumers are choosing to recycle old gold jewelry instead of purchasing new items, with some customers reporting significant returns from recycling [5][15] Recycling Surge - The increase in gold prices has triggered a wave of recycling, with some customers cashing in nearly 70,000 yuan from their gold items [13][15] - The current recycling price is around 760 yuan per gram, significantly higher than last year's average of 550 yuan per gram [15] Market Dynamics - The number of gold retail stores is declining, with over 10,000 closures reported last year, and more expected in the coming quarters [6] - Analysts attribute the fluctuations in gold prices to geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes, which are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [16][17]

美国劳工统计局报告称，6 月份非农就业人数增加 147,000 人，超过预期的 111,000 人，美元周四触及 一周高点。此外，失业率从 5 月份的 4.2% 小幅下降至 4.1%，使美联储提前降息的希望破灭。 报告的其他细节显示，以平均时薪变化衡量的工资增长从 6 月份的 0.4% 放缓至 0.2%，并从 5 月份的 3.8% 回落至 3.7%。这有助于缓解对通胀的担忧，并为今年年底前至少两次降息 25 个基点敞开大门。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的减税和支出法案周四在国会扫清了最后的障碍。据无党派的国会预算办公室 称，该立法将使国家债务增加 3.4 万亿美元。这可能会进一步恶化美国的长期债务问题，从而限制美元 并支撑金价。 与此同时，特朗普表示，他计划最早在周五开始致函通知贸易伙伴他们的关税税率，因为避免美国提高 关税的谈判进入最后阶段。他的评论是在 7 月 9 日提高互惠关税的最后期限前几天发表的，并进一步成 为避险贵金属的顺风。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（7月4日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计21456千克，今日仓单较上 一日增持3000千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡偏弱，周五（7月4日）开盘报774 ...

中东紧张局势持续发酵，法国大选引发政治不确定性，全球地缘政治风险溢价上升。与此同时，市场对 主要央行（尤其是美联储）年内降息的预期虽摇摆但未消失。在避险需求和潜在货币宽松的共同支撑 下，黄金价格近期表现坚挺，再次兵临历史高点2400-2450美元/盎司城下。这一次，黄金能否实现有效 突破？ 地缘政治"火上浇油"： 巴以冲突、红海危机等地缘热点问题未见缓和迹象，近期以色列与黎巴嫩真主 党之间的紧张局势升级引发新的担忧。法国议会选举带来的政治不确定性也令欧洲市场承压。传统避险 资产黄金在这种环境下自然受到资金青睐。 央行购金提供长期支撑： 世界黄金协会数据显示，全球央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）持续强劲的购金 需求是支撑金价的长期结构性因素。分散外汇储备、对冲地缘风险和美元武器化是主要动机，这一趋势 预计在中长期内不会改变。 突破策略： 耐心等待金价有效突破并站稳2450美元上方（如日线或周线收盘确认），可视为强势确立 信号，考虑顺势跟进做多，目标2500美元及以上。 区间策略： 若金价再次在2400-2450遇阻回落，可关注在2300-2350支撑区域企稳后的低吸机会，设置好 止损。 严格风控： 历史高位附近波动可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of tariff threats by Trump ahead of the negotiation deadline on July 9 has heightened market tensions, leading to declines in U.S. stock futures, European stocks, and fluctuations in Asian markets, while safe-haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold saw slight increases [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock futures for the three major indices fell over 0.3% [1][7]. - European stocks experienced widespread declines, with the German DAX and UK FTSE both down over 0.2%, and the French CAC down over 0.7% [1][8]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.1%, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index fell by 0.04%, and the South Korean Composite Index dropped by 2% [1]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the British pound and euro increased by over 0.1%, and the South Korean won rose by over 0.4% [2]. - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.4%, and the Swiss franc rose by over 0.2% [2][13]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold saw a slight increase of about 0.3%, while spot silver declined by approximately 0.2% [3][16]. - U.S. crude oil prices fell by over 0.3%, and Brent crude oil dropped by over 0.5% [4]. Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 0.4%, and Ethereum fell by approximately 1.5% [5]. Investor Sentiment - Some investors are adopting a cautious approach, holding more cash in their portfolios due to concerns about market optimism among other fund managers, leading to reduced equity positions [6].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 6 月份 ADP 私营部门就业环比萎缩，令市场增强对 6 月份非农就业疲软 和美联储加快降息的预期，美国财政扩张法案在众议院遇阻进一步提振了贵金属 的避险需求，隔夜伦敦黄金反弹至 3360 美元/盎司附近，中美贸易形势边际缓和 以及中国股市持续偏强运行使得工业属性更强的白银表现优于黄金。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目 前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思维以 ...

近期在黄金价格稳居每盎司3300美元上方、白银在36美元上方震荡盘整之际,全球市场正聚焦贵金属的 下一轮行情,高地集团认为:黄金与白银或将继续走高,背后推力既包括全球经济的结构性风险,也源于美 财政政策持续扩张与金融市场对避险资产的再度追捧。 金价企稳高位,白银酝酿补涨 根据Sprott高级管理合伙人Ryan McIntyre的最新分析,尽管黄金仍是他投资组合中的"永久配置",但其对白 银的关注已明显增加,白银的周期性工业需求在全球经济担忧缓解后正逐步恢复,同时金银比自4月超过 100的多年高位下降至92以下,表明白银仍有补涨空间。 "白银并非央行储备资产,但却在散户眼中依旧是重要的货币金属,"McIntyre指出。随着更多散户寻求抵 御通胀与资产贬值的手段,贵金属作为"硬资产"的吸引力正不断增强。 财政赤字膨胀,避险需求高涨 美财政赤字的不断膨胀成为支撑金银价格的根本性宏观背景,截至目前,美国联邦政府债务已突破37万亿 美元大关,而据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)估算,参议院刚刚通过的一项预算法案将在未来十年内新增3万 亿美元赤字,该法案已递交众议院审议。这一趋势大幅提升了投资者对美元长期稳定性的担忧。 美国 ...

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为775.68元/克，下跌0.4%。 国际黄金价格报3337.5美元/盎司，下跌0.16%。 来源：金融界 全球央行购金趋势 据世界黄金协会数据，逾九成受访央行认为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金，2025年净购金量预 计突破1300吨，每增加100吨需求可推升金价3%-5%。全球央行的大量购买行为，为黄金价格提供了一 定的支撑，推动金价长期有上涨动力。 地缘政治与贸易局势 中东局势缓和、中美贸易谈判进展等使黄金避险需求削弱。不过，特朗普提出的税收和支出法案若通 过，美国债务增加，可能增强黄金避险吸引力。同时，美国与越南等的贸易协议达成情况，也会影响市 场对通胀和货币政策的预期，进而影响黄金价格。 走势点评：近期黄金价格受美国就业数据影响大幅下挫，但全球央行购金趋势为其提供长期支撑。短期 来看，若美国失业率、通胀等数据无明显恶化，黄金或维持震荡偏弱。长期而言，美元信用弱化、央行 持续购金等因素，使黄金仍有上涨潜力，不过需密切关注地缘政治和贸易局势变化。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 美国就业数据强劲 美国6月新增非农就业人数超出预期，失业 ...