在美国打击委内瑞拉并抓获马杜罗两天后，华盛顿对后续事宜的规划仍有很多不明之处。白宫辩称，驱 逐马杜罗是针对毒枭的执法行动，而非政权更迭行动或战争——这一框架一直被用来解释其迄今为止的 有限步骤。 但特朗普对戏剧性行动和精准打击的偏好，可能在委内瑞拉这个经济崩溃、拥有3000万人口的国家面临 终极考验，任何失误都可能导致暴力和其他不稳定。 今日周二(1月6日)欧盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于77.86一线上方，今日开盘于76.55美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报78.45美元/盎司，上涨2.54%，最高触及79.29美元/盎司，最低下探75.70美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 特朗普进一步警告，如果哥伦比亚和墨西哥不减少向美国走私毒品的流动，也可能面临军事行动。这些 事态发展引发了对拉丁美洲地区不稳定的担忧。 其中，德国Heraeus Metals贵金属交易员Alexander Zumpfe称："委内瑞拉的局势显然重新激活了避险需 求。" 点位上，下方37.8的多和38.8的50.75的多和52.7的多减仓后止损跟进在68，今日74.7多止损74.3目标看 ...

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 据新华社报道，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉 总统马杜罗，并带离委内瑞拉。 1月5日，国内贵金属期货开盘集体上涨。截至当日17时，现货黄金最高触及4433.55 美元/盎司。 多位分析人士指出，黄金价格强势上涨主要是避险需求推动。汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明强 调："此次地缘事件的烈度与持续性可能有限，其引发的市场避险情绪有望随时间缓和。" 展望后市，华安基金方面指出，美联储仍处于降息大周期，若鸽派主席任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激 进。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债信用风险延续，去美元化下央行购金延续，叠加全球黄 金ETF投资需求高涨，仍看好2026年黄金配置价值。 地缘冲突点燃避险情绪 赵庆明在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时指出，该事件发生后，现货黄金价格出现显著上涨。若地区风 险持续发酵或全球其他地缘热点（如俄乌冲突）联动，将继续为金价提供避险溢价。 华安基金方面指出，地缘紧张局势有望利好黄金。全球百年未有之大变局下，逆全球化与地缘冲突不 断，地缘政治的不确定性有望促使更多避险资金涌向黄金。 "特朗普表示美国石 ...

美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜 罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国。加拿大帝国商业银行私人财富管理公司高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表 示，这一事件加剧了地缘政治风险，不确定性上升导致5日油价反弹。 尽管地缘政治风险推动当日油价上涨，但基本面的疲软仍给石油产业中期前景蒙上阴影。在需求增长乏 力背景下，随着"欧佩克+"和其他产油国增加产量，今年全球市场或面临供应过剩。 新华社纽约1月5日电 综述丨地缘政治风险推动国际金价油价上涨 尽管市场仍担忧全球石油供应过剩，受美国在委内瑞拉军事行动引发的地缘政治冲击影响，国际原油价 格5日上涨；纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格5日大幅上涨，2月黄金期价涨幅一度超过3%，再次站 上每盎司4450美元；3月白银期价涨幅一度超过7%。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1.00美元，收于每桶58.32美 元，涨幅为1.74%。3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.01美元，收于每桶61.76美元，涨幅为 1.66%。 受避险需求增加推动，国际黄金和白银价格5日大幅上涨。 世界黄金协会最新市场监测报 ...

新华社纽约1月5日电 综述丨地缘政治风险推动国际金价油价上涨 新华社记者徐静 尽管市场仍担忧全球石油供应过剩，受美国在委内瑞拉军事行动引发的地缘政治冲击影响，国际原油价 格5日上涨；纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格5日大幅上涨，2月黄金期价涨幅一度超过3%，再次站 上每盎司4450美元；3月白银期价涨幅一度超过7%。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1.00美元，收于每桶58.32美 元，涨幅为1.74%。3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.01美元，收于每桶61.76美元，涨幅为 1.66%。 美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜 罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国。加拿大帝国商业银行私人财富管理公司高级能源交易员丽贝卡·巴宾表 示，这一事件加剧了地缘政治风险，不确定性上升导致5日油价反弹。 尽管地缘政治风险推动当日油价上涨，但基本面的疲软仍给石油产业中期前景蒙上阴影。在需求增长乏 力背景下，随着"欧佩克+"和其他产油国增加产量，今年全球市场或面临供应过剩。 路透社5日发布的一项针对34名经济学家和分析师的调查进一步印证了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in spot gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, which have enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold rose by 0.4% to $4,466 per ounce, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical concerns [1] - Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader, noted that the situation in Venezuela has clearly revived safe-haven demand for gold [1] - There is speculation that if geopolitical tensions escalate further or if upcoming U.S. data suggests a need for more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may approach record highs [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver experienced a significant increase, rising nearly 3% to approach $79 per ounce [1] - Silver prices are projected to soar by 147% by 2025, driven by its designation as a critical mineral in the U.S. and structural market shortages due to rising demand [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 Bednarik指出，金价在20日均线附近获得支撑并反弹后，从技术面看仍偏多。 周一，现货黄金价格暴涨至一周高点，主因是美国空袭委内瑞拉并抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后，避险需求激增。此外，美国总统特朗普还暗示可 能就非法毒品流动问题对哥伦比亚采取军事行动。 现货黄金周一收盘暴涨116.61美元，涨幅2.69%，报4448.87美元/盎司。金价曾在12月26日触及4549.71美元/盎司的历史高点。 周一出炉的数据显示，美国ISM制造业PMI在2025年12月降至47.9，低于预期的48.3，显示制造业活动进一步恶化。该数据为连续第十个月处于收缩 区间，较11月的48.2回落，凸显该行业持续疲弱。 文章来源：24K99 周二（1月6日）亚市盘中，现货黄金在昨日惊人暴涨后维持升势，目前金价位于4460美元/盎司附近。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik撰文，对 黄金技术前景进行分析。 Bednarik写道，在地缘政治动荡之际、美国数据疲软的背景下，黄金重拾看涨态势。美国对委内瑞拉的干预引发避险需求升温，推动黄金走强。美 国12月 ...

【要闻速递】 在委内瑞拉国内，副总统罗德里格斯宣誓就任临时总统，虽然表达了对马杜罗的支持，但态度相对温 和，没有明确表示抵抗。这场突袭虽短暂，却彻底改变了拉美地缘格局。 【最新白银td行情解析】 周一(1月5日)马杜罗夫妇被押解至纽约联邦法院，面对包括毒品恐怖主义、可卡因进口共谋等多项重罪 指控。 特朗普总统毫不掩饰行动背后的意图：不仅要打击所谓的毒品贩运网络，还明确表示要开放委内瑞拉丰 富的石油资源，让美国石油公司重返并重建当地能源基础设施。他甚至警告，如果委内瑞拉新政府不配 合，将发动第二次打击，并暗示可能扩展到哥伦比亚和墨西哥。 这一行动震动了整个国际社会。联合国安理会紧急辩论其合法性，俄罗斯等国家强烈谴责，美国的传统 盟友也保持克制，仅强调对话和法治的重要性。 今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于18942一线上方，今日开盘于18180元/千克，截至发稿， 白银td暂报19154元/千克，上涨5.25%，最高触及19208元/千克，最低下探18105元/千克，目前来看，白 银td盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 日图来看，白银td价格收回上周部分跌势，今日价格延续拉升，涨超5%，目前走势继续上扬，一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | 2026/1/5 | 4420. 31 | 75.44 | 4429.90 | 75. 25 | 995.00 | 18260.00 | 992. 10 | 18296.00 | | 格跟踪 (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/12/31 | 4329.08 | 71.93 | 434 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in international precious metal futures, with COMEX gold futures rising by 3.00% to $4459.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 7.74% to $76.51 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and a reassessment of asset safety and financial sovereignty by multiple countries [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the current low interest rate environment is favorable for non-yielding assets like gold, particularly during periods of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, as investors evaluate the broader impacts of recent geopolitical tensions [4] - The expectation of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is influencing market sentiment, with projections indicating a substantial rise in gold prices by 64% in 2025, marking the best annual performance since 1979, attributed to declining interest rates, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and inflows into equity trading funds [1]