一、今日金价全景：国际国内同步回调，实物金店价稳量缩 从技术指标看，黄金前期涨势已显疲态。尽管缺乏当日完整 RSI 数据，但 10 月 21 日市场分析显示，黄金 RSI 指标长期处于 70 以上超买区间，8 月以来的 连续上涨形成 "上升三角形破裂" 形态，技术面回调需求强烈。此前纽约金从 3800 美元涨至 4146.7 美元的过程中，未出现有效回调，此次下跌可视为对超 买状态的修正。 10 月 22 日黄金市场迎来显著回调，国际与国内品种价格同步走低。截至当日 8 时 28 分，国际市场上，纽约金期货价格报 4025.5 美元 / 盎司，较前一日下 跌 83.6 美元，跌幅达 2.03%，日内最低触及 4025 美元关口；伦敦金现报 4053 美元 / 盎司，下跌 39.52 美元，跌幅 0.97%，盘中波动区间达 89.8 美元。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所黄金 T D 品种暂未开盘，报价 944.47 元 / 克，较前收盘价下跌 44.98 元，跌幅 4.55%，早盘最低探至 935 元 / 克；上海期货 交易所沪金期货同步承压，报价 945.44 元 / 克，跌幅 4.64%，较前日高点 966 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide hedging demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals. The current upward trend in precious metals may continue until 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, while short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. However, short - term adjustment risks should be noted, and heavy - position chasing at current prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with adjustment risks from previous price surges, led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices overnight, followed by a notable rebound in the Asian session. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize at the $3950 - 4050 per ounce level. Key events to watch this week include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 954.55, down 4.18%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,415, down 3.41%; Gold T + D closed at 947.30, down 4.01%; Silver T + D closed at 11,377, down 3.25% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold oscillated widely between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressures. Since August, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and geopolitical risks have driven a new round of upward trends in precious metals. London gold soared to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record high of $54.47 per ounce. Although the upward trend is expected to continue, short - term adjustment risks should be noted [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US - Russia Relations**: The planned summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin was postponed due to Russia's rejection of the immediate cease - fire proposal in Ukraine. Russia's conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine conflicted with Trump's current plan [17]. - **EU - China Trade**: The EU Trade Commissioner invited Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to visit Brussels to address China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to resolve the impasse around Nexperia. Discussions also covered the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [18]. - **Japan's New Prime Minister's Stance**: Japan's new Prime Minister Takamori Sanae hopes the Bank of Japan's monetary policy can achieve a 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage growth [18]. - **Canada - US Steel and Aluminum Trade**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney was cautious about reports of a potential steel and aluminum trade agreement with the US, warning against over - interpretation [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a technical correction rather than a fundamental market reversal, with short-term indicators showing an "overbought" condition after a significant price increase [3] Market Dynamics - The gold price experienced a significant drop of 2.9% in a single day, marking the worst decline in 12 years, leading to concerns among investors about the future of gold [1][3] - The market had previously seen a surge of over $1,000 in gold prices over six weeks, prompting a necessary correction [3] Price Forecast - The current adjustment is expected to last 1 to 2 months, with a potential price decline of 10% to 15% [3] - Key support levels are identified at $3,900 to $3,904 per ounce, with a critical Fibonacci retracement level; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $3,760 [3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks continue to purchase gold, driven by concerns over U.S. debt credit and geopolitical risks, indicating a long-term strategy to diversify reserves [4] - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, reflecting a strong commitment to gold accumulation [4] Market Liquidity - The ongoing "liquidity feast" in the market is pushing gold prices, with an expectation of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could enhance gold's attractiveness [4] Structural Demand - There is a structural increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to underlying risks in private credit and U.S. debt issuance, which are seen as potential threats [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised against rushing to buy during this volatility, waiting for clear stabilization signals [5] - Mid-term strategies suggest entering positions if gold prices fall to the $3,800 to $3,900 range, with a focus on gradual accumulation [5] - Long-term investment should allocate 5% to 15% of the overall asset portfolio to gold, favoring gold ETFs and physical gold investments without leverage [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $300 to $4,082 per ounce, is attributed to profit-taking after a significant increase of 66% this year and 170% since the end of 2022, raising concerns about whether this marks a healthy correction or the end of the current bull market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price experienced a historic surge, reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce before the recent drop, which is the largest single-day decline since 2013 [1]. - Silver prices also fell sharply, decreasing by 7.5% to $48.37 per ounce on the same day [1]. - The recent upward trend in gold prices was driven by geopolitical uncertainties, continuous purchases by global central banks, and strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Decline - Short-term weakening of safe-haven demand contributed to the price drop, influenced by optimistic signs in international trade and reduced geopolitical risk concerns [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has led to predictions of a potential resolution, further boosting market optimism [2]. - A stronger U.S. dollar, which rose by 0.34% to 98.98, also pressured gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for investors holding other currencies [2]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Most analysts believe that gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset will persist, suggesting that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short term [3]. - Key factors supporting gold prices, such as geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown risks, and central bank buying demand, have not fundamentally reversed [3]. - However, there are concerns about speculative trading influencing gold's volatility, indicating that significant price fluctuations may continue in the future [3].

近期，黄金市场上演了惊心动魄的"高台跳水"行情，引发了市场的广泛关注和投资者的高度紧张。 从市场表现来看，伦敦金在10月21日单日跌幅一度达到6.7%，创下2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅。国内 市场也未能幸免，各大品牌金饰价格大幅下跌，A股黄金珠宝板块也集体下挫。 此次黄金大跌，是多种因素综合作用的结果。首先，避险情绪的降温是重要因素。此前，美国政府"关 门"危机、中美贸易关系紧张以及俄乌冲突等地缘政治因素，推动黄金价格不断上涨。然而，随着白宫 表示"政府关门危机或在本周内结束"，中美关系缓和信号释放，特别是俄乌局势出现重大转折，欧洲主 要国家支持特朗普"立即停战"立场，市场避险情绪大幅减弱，黄金的避险需求也就随之减少。其次，从 交易层面看，今年以来黄金价格涨幅巨大，累计涨幅一度超过60%，大量的获利盘积累使得多头获利了 结意愿强烈，资金的集中离场对黄金价格形成了巨大的抛售压力。此外，美元的阶段性走强，以及实物 金消费大户印度排灯节采购结束，实物金需求支撑减弱，也在一定程度上打压了黄金价格。 黄金大跌对市场和投资者产生了多方面的影响。对于市场而言，A股黄金板块大幅下挫，贵金属市场波 动加剧，引发了市场的连锁反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver prices plummeting dramatically, raising concerns about the end of the bull market and investor strategies in response to this volatility [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On October 21, gold prices saw a maximum drop of 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, while silver prices fell by 8.7%, the largest drop since 2021 [3][4]. - On October 22, gold prices reached a low of $4002.89 per ounce, and silver prices fell to $47.48 per ounce, indicating continued downward pressure [1][3]. Causes of the Decline - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict, has reduced the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets, triggering the price drop [4][5]. - Prior to the decline, gold had increased by over 65% in 2023, leading to profit-taking and a buildup of selling pressure as investors sought to realize gains [4][5]. - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts are divided on whether this decline represents a short-term adjustment or a more significant trend reversal. Historical patterns suggest that major bull markets are often driven by inflation or financial crises [6][7]. - Despite the recent downturn, long-term structural factors supporting gold prices, such as geopolitical risks and high US debt levels, remain intact [6][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold may find support around $4000 per ounce, with potential for further fluctuations as the market stabilizes [7][8]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to assess their risk tolerance and consider strategies such as buying on dips for those with higher risk appetites, while conservative investors may prefer to hold their positions and wait for market stabilization [9][10]. - It is recommended that long-term investors avoid high-leverage products and consider stable investment options like gold bars, paper gold, or gold ETFs [9][10].

Group 1 - Gold prices are under pressure after testing the $4,380 level, dropping over 4% to around $4,100, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand due to trade optimism and a rebound in the dollar, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] - Despite short-term pressure, the medium to long-term fundamentals remain supportive for gold, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization trends, structural safe-haven demand, and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The dollar index has rebounded to the 98.8–98.9 range, driven by improved risk appetite and a slight increase in yields, with market participants reassessing interest rate cut expectations following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 2 - Recent API and EIA data indicate a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, contributing to WTI prices remaining at low levels, with short-term oil prices influenced by inventory levels, drilling counts, and geopolitical news [2] - Key variables for the week include U.S. CPI/PCE inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials, which could significantly impact market volatility and asset correlations [2] - The market is exhibiting a "news-driven rapid switch" characteristic, with trade optimism boosting risk appetite, a stronger yen due to economic data and rate hike expectations, and oil prices pressured by inventory and supply forecasts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, is driven by a combination of strong demand for safe-haven assets, central bank purchases, and speculative trading behavior in the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have consistently risen this year, with 9 out of 10 months showing increases, peaking at approximately $4,300 per ounce, a rise of 65.4% from around $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year [1]. - Following a peak of $4,398 per ounce on October 20, gold prices experienced a significant drop of over 5% the next day, raising questions about the sustainability of the upward trend [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The primary drivers of the gold price increase include heightened safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions, ongoing inflation, and currency depreciation, leading to a substantial rise in large-scale investments in gold [2][4]. - Central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with a Deutsche Bank report indicating that gold now accounts for 30% of global "foreign exchange + gold" reserves, reflecting a shift away from the dollar [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a surge in gold-themed ETFs, with record inflows of $26 billion in the third quarter of 2025, pushing total assets under management in gold ETFs to a historic high of $472 billion [4]. - In China, gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with the Huaan Gold ETF alone attracting 6.348 billion yuan in a single week, indicating strong domestic interest in gold investments [5]. Group 4: Company Performance - Leading companies in the gold sector, such as Zijin Mining, have reported substantial revenue growth, with Zijin Mining's revenue increasing by 10.33% year-on-year and net profit rising by 55.45% [6][8]. - Other companies, like Shandong Gold, are also expected to report significant profit increases, with projections showing a year-on-year growth of 80.5% to 94.8% for the first three quarters [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected to create investment opportunities in the gold sector, particularly for leading companies like Zijin Mining and smaller, high-performing firms like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [8][9]. - The overall positive industry cycle and strong performance of gold-related companies suggest that they will continue to attract investor interest, especially as gold remains a key asset for central banks and a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [6][9].

近期黄金市场波动剧烈，多日内上演惊心动魄的 V 型反转行情。10 月中旬，国际金价先是冲高至 4179 美元 / 盎司的历史峰值，随后突发多头获利了结引 发断崖式下跌，盘中最大跌幅近 90 美元，最低触及 4090 美元 / 盎司，正当市场担忧回调趋势确立时，逢低买盘迅速入场推动价格午后快速回升，完成经 典 V 型反转，国内沪金同步呼应，从 934 元 / 克的低点攀升至 955 元 / 克，成交量显著放大。这种剧烈震荡让投资者陷入两难：究竟该及时止盈离场，还 是坚定持有布局长期？要解答这一问题，需从走势成因、市场现状及增长潜力三方面深入剖析。 一、V 型走势的核心成因：多重因素共振下的市场博弈 黄金日内 V 型反转并非偶然，而是短期情绪冲击与长期基本面支撑激烈碰撞的结果，具体可归结为三大核心因素： （一）美联储政策信号主导行情转向 美联储释放的鸽派信号成为行情逆转的关键引擎。主席鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会年会上暗示缩表进程即将结束，且本月晚些时候有望再次降息 25 个基 点，理事鲍曼更明确预计年底前还将有两次降息。这一表态直接压低美债收益率，10 年期国债收益率跌至 4% 的近月低点，显著削弱了美元资产吸引 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant fluctuations in gold prices, including a sharp decline of 6.3% on October 21, 2023, have paused a months-long upward trend, despite gold's year-to-date increase of approximately 55% driven by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical and trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a notable drop, falling to around $4,000 before recovering to approximately $4,115, following a record single-day decline of $231 [1]. - The gold market has been a focal point on Wall Street this year, with prices surpassing $4,000 and reaching over $4,300, marking an annual increase exceeding 50% [3]. - The demand for gold is bolstered by central banks increasing their gold reserves, renewed interest in gold ETFs, and domestic investors seeking alternative investment channels after a prolonged downturn in the real estate market [3][4]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty in trade, and frequent U.S. government shutdowns continue to support gold prices, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Anticipated interest rate cuts later this month and in December are expected to further strengthen gold prices, as declining bond yields may weaken the dollar, benefiting gold performance [4].