1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, expected to be strong and volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot median implies 3 rate cuts this year. The short - term uncertainty of external risks has decreased, and the domestic easing expectation has increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term increase in upward macro - driving forces [2][3][4] - Different sectors have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the steel market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and production restrictions; the non - ferrous metal market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and economic trends; the energy and chemical market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory conditions; the agricultural product market is affected by factors such as production capacity regulation and demand changes [5][8][15][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dollar first fell and then rose. Domestically, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth rates were lower than previous values and market expectations. The uncertainty of external risks decreased, and the domestic easing expectation increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased [2] - Equity index: Driven by sectors such as lithography machines, diversified finance, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be volatile. The real - world demand has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand contradiction has increased. However, due to the potential production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term steel market is likely to continue the volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decreased slightly. The rigid replenishment demand continued to be released, but the room for further growth in iron - water production is limited. The supply is generally at a high level, and the price should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply continued to rise slightly, and the prices are expected to continue the interval - oscillation [6][7] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was volatile at a high level. There is a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish mindset should be adopted, and short - term positive impacts from policies and news should be guarded against [7] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was volatile at a high level. The supply was stable, and the demand was difficult to increase significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The recent rise in copper prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, tax policy on the recycled copper market, and the Indonesian copper mine accident. However, the upward space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [8] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell. Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market was cautious, and the profit - taking sentiment was strong. The rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the rise in copper prices, but the fundamentals are weak [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering the cost support, the short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward space is limited [10] - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 decreased significantly, but it is expected to recover. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation in the short - term, but the upward space is under pressure [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upper pressure range should be noted [12][13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation due to the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the strengthening of the cost - side coking coal [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short - term due to the price increase of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells in the spot market and the strong policy expectation [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell on Wednesday. The market digested the Fed's interest rate cut decision and US inventory data. The oil price will pay more attention to subsequent inventory conditions, and there is still support below in the short - term [15] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the oil price and remained volatile. The demand has weakened significantly, and the upward space is limited. The follow - up increase amplitude relative to the oil price should be noted [16] - **PX**: The PX price followed the energy and chemical sector and rebounded slightly. It will remain in an oscillating pattern and wait for the changes in PTA devices [16] - **PTA**: The PTA price continued to rise slightly. The downstream start - up rate has recovered, but the terminal start - up rate is still limited. The price upward space is limited, but there is also support below. It is expected to be oscillating without a trend in the short - term [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol ended its continuous decline and rebounded slightly. The port inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [17] - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium - term [17] - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is rising, but there is also support for the price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [18] - **PP**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [18] - **LLDPE**: The supply has increased, and the demand has improved slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18] - **Urea**: The supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean crop is in the early harvesting stage, and the crop rating has declined for three consecutive weeks. The CBOT soybean market maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude [20][21] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. However, the supply - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and the price center of soybean meal is expected to rise [21] - **Oils**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the consumption support is limited. The high inventory of rapeseed oil is being continuously digested, and the market sentiment is strong [21] - **Palm Oil**: The domestic demand for palm oil is gradually weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The production in Malaysia has been affected by floods, but the subsequent increase in production and the decline in exports may limit the increase [22][23] - **Corn**: The new - season corn market is stable at the beginning. The futures expectation is slightly weak, but the risk of breaking the previous low is not high [23] - **Hogs**: The market supply of hogs is sufficient, and the price decline in some regions exceeds expectations. In the medium - term, the pig price may be under pressure from September to November, which may accelerate the market - based capacity reduction [23]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year[1] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a more hawkish stance and uncertainty about future rate cuts[1][3] - The dot plot indicates two potential rate cuts remaining this year, but the actual implementation may be uncertain[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was slightly revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%, driven by investment rather than consumption[3][17] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a weak supply-demand balance in the labor market[4][17] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast is maintained at 3.0%, with core PCE inflation also stable[6][17] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic transition from consumption to investment may lead to structural changes in employment data, with a potential decline in non-farm employment central tendency[7] - The tightening liquidity in the dollar system may prompt the Fed to end balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, with a potential threshold reached by Q4[8][9] - The outlook for major assets suggests a bullish trend for both the RMB and the USD index, with expectations of continued appreciation for the RMB against the USD[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish stance on precious metals prices, with a focus on the price increase opportunities of silver under the background of the Fed's preventive interest rate cuts [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than market expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver prices [2] - Powell's characterization of this rate cut as "risk - management" alleviated market expectations of an overseas economic recession, which was a positive factor for silver with more obvious industrial attributes [2] - The voting pattern of this interest rate meeting implies a lower probability of current director Waller being elected as the new Fed Chairman, and the probability of Hassett taking office is increasing. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will rise with the appointment of the new chairman. Currently, a bullish view on precious metals prices should be maintained [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.76%, closing at 832.64 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 1.06%, closing at 9924.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.55%, closing at 3697.40 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver fell 0.28%, closing at 42.04 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 96.97 [2] - Various precious metal - related varieties showed different price changes and trading volume trends on September 17, 2025, compared with the previous trading day [4][6] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the less - dovish statement than expected by the market put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2] - Powell's view on inflation, labor market risks, and the nature of the rate cut affected market expectations. His characterization of the rate cut as "risk - management" was beneficial to silver [2] - The voting pattern in the meeting affected market expectations. The probability of the appointment of the new Fed Chairman will also affect future market expectations for rate cuts [3] Technical Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices (such as COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [8][11][12] - The near - far month structure charts of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and London silver are presented, reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [20][23][33] - Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationship with prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][43] - Statistics on the internal and external price differences of gold and silver are provided, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA, along with their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [51][52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Japanese and Korean stock markets, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the subsequent rise in Chinese assets in the U.S. market. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 18, Japanese and Korean stock markets saw collective gains, with the Nikkei 225 index opening up 0.27% at 44,910.50 points, reaching a record high during the session [1][3] - The Korean Composite Index opened up 0.57% at 3,432.77 points, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Among the Nikkei 225 stocks, Resonac Holdings experienced the largest increase of 8.7%, while Tokyo Electric Power had the largest decline of 4.4% [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 [5][6] - The decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting member advocating for a 50 basis point cut [5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the weakening labor market was a key factor in the decision to cut rates, noting that job growth has slowed [5][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, while non-farm payroll growth has been slowing [6] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core PCE index rising 2.9% year-on-year in July, and expectations for further increases in August [6] - Powell emphasized the need to manage inflation risks while addressing employment concerns, suggesting a cautious approach to future rate cuts [6][9] Group 4: Global Market Implications - The Fed's shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing employment is expected to have significant implications for global financial markets [9] - The article notes that the Fed's decision to ease monetary policy while the stock market is near historical highs is a rare occurrence, highlighting the unusual economic environment [9]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【9月18日招商宏观研报：美联储降息25BP，未来不确定性加剧】当地时间9月17日，美联储召开议息 会议，降息25BP，联邦基金目标利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%，缩表节奏不变。本次会议延续8月 JacksonHole全球央行会议基调，认为就业下行风险大于通胀上行风险，鲍威尔将此次降息定调为"风险 管理式降息"。 从点阵图看，美联储内部分歧大，加剧未来不确定性。点阵图和SEP显示今年降息 75BP，明后年各降25BP，低于会前市场预计的今明两年各75BP。 高频数据和鲍威尔表态显示，美国只 是短暂放缓非衰退，本轮属"预防式"降息。年内75BP已足够对冲就业市场下行风险，明年一季度通胀 有上行风险，后续关注9-10月美国就业数据。 本次会议对明后年降息指引保守，SEP显示明后年各降 25BP，与6月相比无变化。 ...

首席 点 评 ： 美联储如期降息 美联储如期降息25基点，承认劳动力市场走弱，提及通胀上行；点阵图显示年内预计还降息两次，明年 预计降息一次。加拿大央行周三降息，将基准隔夜利率下调0.25个百分点至2.5%，这是自3月以来的首 次降息。香港特区行政长官17日11时在特区立法会宣读行政长官2025年施政报告。协助中概股以香港为 首选回归地；推动港股人民币交易柜台纳入"股票通"南向交易。推动香港机场管理局（机管局）及金融 机构在港拓展黄金仓储，以三年超越2000吨为目标，建造区域黄金储备枢纽。财政部：前八月全国一般 公共预算收入同比增加0.3%，支出同比增长3.1%，交易印花税收入大增81.7% 。 重点品种： 黄金、铜、股指 黄金： 美联储利率决议后金银波动加剧。9月美联储降息25个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任命的美 联储理事米兰支持降息50个基点。点阵图显示美联储当下的中性预期为年内再降息50个基点，明年降息 25个基点，政策路径节奏上相对偏鹰。本周刚公布的美国8月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长0.6%，预估 为0.2%。同比增长2.1%，实现连续第11个月实现正增长。上周公布的8月CPI同比上涨2.9%。核心 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美联储2025年9月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预期。鲍威 尔表示这是一次风险管理式降息，在双重使命中偏向控制就业市场下行风险。本次点阵图显示今年目标 利率中枢为3.6%，低于6月显示的3.9%，同时上调今年美国经济增速预测，维持今年美国通胀和失业率 预测不变。点阵图指引年内还有50bps降息符合预期，依旧预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分 别再次降息25bps。等到新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后，2026年利率路径才会更加清晰。 市场方面，降息落地后美债再现"买预期+卖事实"、美股"补涨"特征依旧，道指和小盘股表现较好。建 议相对淡化此次会议对明年利率路径的指引，预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态、预计黄金 仍有不错表现。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025年9月美联储议息会议声明要点： 1)利率工具方面，委员会决定降息25bps，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调至4.00-4.25%，符合市场预 期。此次利率决议未得到一致同意，临时理事米兰投票支持降息50bps。 2)资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上限为50亿美元、机构债务和M ...

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%，暗示年内可能 继续降息两次。 一图速览>> ■ 关于就业: 劳动力市场正在走软,我们不需 要它继续进一步走软,(而目) 也不希望它走软。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰如何主张？ 最新点阵图透露哪些信息？ 关于 风险管理式降息、 反对票、通胀情况，鲍威尔如何表态？ 机构如何解读本次降息？ 25 25 2024 50 2025 有记录来美联储利率走势 *图中数据为目标利率最 2008/1: 2020/03 美联储最新点阵图 点阵图显示,美联储 内部分歧巨大。 在此次降息后,赞成 | : : 年内按兵不动或再降 : + + = = ... 息2次的委员分别有6 :: 位和9位。外界预测, 有1位主张年内激进降 息150个基点的委员 可能是刚进入美联储 理事会的米兰。 2027 2025 2024 相比之下,2026年的预测分布更为分散,利率区间中值集中在 3.25%-3.75%,与目前的利率水平相比,有75个基点的降息空间。 美联储主席鲍威尔 机构解读 ■ 关于风险管理式降息: ■ 摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家 在某种程度上, ...

当地时间9月17日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率目标区间从4.25%—4.5%降至4.00%—4.25%，符合市场预期，这是美联储今年以来的首次降 息。 美联储声明指出，近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于 低位。通胀率有所上升，且仍处于略高水平。 最新公布的点阵图显示，预计今年年内还将再降息两次（各25个基点），比6月的预测多出一次。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，降息50个基点未获广泛支持，他认为无需迅速调整利率，可以把今天的举动看 作是风险管理式的降息。 美联储公布利率决议后，市场反应剧烈，美股三大指数短线冲高后迅速跳水，截至收盘，道指涨 0.57%，报46018.3点；标普500指数跌0.1%，报6600.3点；纳斯达克指数跌0.33%，报22261.3点。 FOMC强调，委员会致力于在更长时期内实现"最大就业"和"2%通胀"的目标。当前经济前景的不确定性 依然较高。委员会密切关注其"双重使命"两方面的风险，并判断就业面临的下行风险有所上升。 本次并未像上次那样重申：美国的失业率仍低、劳动力市场稳健、通胀依旧略为高企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The dot plot reveals significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with 6 members favoring a pause and 9 members supporting two additional rate cuts this year [3] - A newly appointed member, Stephen Milan, is speculated to advocate for a more aggressive rate cut of 150 basis points [3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, indicating a potential reduction of 75 basis points compared to current levels [4] - The latest economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.5% [12] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the recent rate cut as a form of risk management, highlighting the upward risks to inflation and downward risks to employment [5] - Powell noted that rising commodity prices are a significant contributor to inflation, which is expected to continue affecting inflation rates in the remaining months of the year [7] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, and there is a desire to prevent further deterioration [8] Group 4: Institutional Interpretations - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, interpreted the rate cut as a dovish signal, emphasizing the rising risks in the employment sector [9] - Fitch's U.S. economic research head, Olu Sonola, stated that the Fed is prioritizing growth and employment, even at the cost of tolerating higher inflation in the short term [10] - Goldman Sachs' macro strategy head, Simon Dangoor, noted that the majority of Fed members plan to cut rates two more times this year, indicating a dominant dovish stance [10] - Wells Fargo's senior economist, Sarah House, remarked that the meeting's outcome reflects a balance between weakening labor market momentum and persistent high inflation [11]