Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[2] - The dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts expected within the year, raising the total anticipated cuts from 2 to 3[1][6] Economic Outlook - The Fed revised its 2025 Q4 GDP growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[5] - Core PCE inflation for 2025 remains at 3.1%, while the 2026 forecast was raised by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[5] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[5] Employment and Inflation Insights - The Fed expressed increased concerns about the labor market, noting a shift from "labor market remains robust" to "employment growth has slowed" and acknowledging rising downside risks to employment[2][3] - Inflation risks are perceived to be lower than expected, with tariffs impacting goods prices and service inflation potentially continuing to cool[3] Forward Guidance - Powell emphasized that the recent rate cut is a "risk management cut," and future rate paths will depend on incoming data[4] - The dot plot suggests a total of 5 rate cuts from 2025 to 2027, with 3 cuts anticipated in 2025 alone[4][11] Market Reactions - Financial markets experienced volatility, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields initially dropping before rising again, settling at 3.54% and 4.06% respectively[2] - The S&P 500 index showed mixed movements, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3662 per ounce[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the September 2025 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, lowering the policy rate to 4 - 4.25%, with Governor Milan voting against and advocating for a 50BP cut [1] - The Fed's meeting statement emphasized the downside risk to employment, stating that new job growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has marginally increased but remains low [1] - In the SEP economic forecast, the Fed raised its expectation for interest rate cuts this year, lowering the year - end policy rate forecast from 3.9% to 3.6%, implying two more rate cuts this year [1] - The Fed also adjusted GDP growth, core PCE growth, and unemployment rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which may reflect the Fed's use of rate cuts to eliminate risks in the job market [1] - Although the dot plot revised up the expected rate cuts for the year, Powell did not clearly turn dovish at the press conference, stating that the rate cut was a "risk management cut" and that he was still in a data - watching mode [1] - In terms of asset prices, US Treasury yields first declined following the dovish dot - plot guidance and then rose due to Powell's "risk management" remarks. The US dollar index also moved in a similar pattern [1] - The Fed's future rate - cut path remains uncertain. There is a probability of a 25BP rate cut at the end - October meeting, but whether there will be a rate cut in December depends on inflation [1] - In the short term, the 10Y US Treasury yield may face resistance at 4%. The 10Y US Treasury yield needs a strong catalyst to break below 4%, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate with rate - cut expectations before a real recession risk emerges in the US [4] Summary by Related Aspects Fed Meeting Results - In the September 2025 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, lowering the policy rate to 4 - 4.25%, with one dissenting vote for a 50BP cut [1] - The Fed's statement emphasized employment risks, and the SEP economic forecast adjusted multiple economic indicators and raised the expectation for rate cuts this year [1] Powell's Stance - Powell did not clearly turn dovish at the press conference. He attributed the 25BP rate cut to a change in the risk - balance relationship between inflation and employment and described it as a "risk management cut" [1] Asset Price Movements - US Treasury yields first declined and then rose, with the 2Y and 10Y yields up 1BP and 4BP respectively compared to before the meeting. The US dollar index also moved in a similar pattern [1] Future Rate - Cut Outlook - The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain. There is a probability of a 25BP rate cut in October, and the December decision depends on inflation [1] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, the 10Y US Treasury yield may face resistance at 4%. It needs a strong catalyst to break below 4%. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate with rate - cut expectations [4]

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, down from 4.25%-4.50%[5] - This marks a total reduction of 50 basis points (BP) in September 2024, followed by two reductions of 25 BP each in November and December 2024[5] - The Fed is expected to continue easing, with two more rate cuts anticipated in October and December 2025, bringing the median forecast for the federal funds rate down to 3.6%[5] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, up from 1.4%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the 2026 forecast has been slightly adjusted down to 4.4%[6] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is maintained at 3%, with core PCE at 3.1%[6] Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Fed, with varying opinions on the extent of rate cuts, including one member advocating for a 50 BP cut[6] - Recent personnel changes have intensified these divisions, with new appointments and court rulings affecting the Fed's internal dynamics[6] Inflation and Employment Concerns - The Fed acknowledges rising inflation, with current rates around 2.9%, and highlights the potential impact of tariffs contributing 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to inflation[6] - Employment growth is slowing, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in August 2025, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fluctuations[6]

该机构表示，向前看，美联储货币政策决策关注点已由通胀转为就业。进入四季度后，就业市场的下行 风险较为确定，10月大概率再降息1次；至12月，美联储或将视就业表现决定是否继续降息。 长江证券研报认为，9月美联储降息25BP并无意外，与此前市场普遍预期的一致：当前就业的走弱，以 及通胀的温和让美联储风险平衡转向就业，选择适度降息以应对就业下行风险。 该机构认为，声明公布后，由于此前市场对降息的预期较为充分，外加鲍威尔表态也偏中性，强调"本 次为风险管理式降息，未来政策路径仍取决于数据"，市场呈现"利好出尽"行情：美元指数、10年期美 债收益率短线下行后反弹回升，美股短暂上涨后震荡走弱。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合 市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。 上证报中国证券网讯（卢伊 记者 徐蔚）北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降 息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 Index, driven by the semiconductor sector, with significant weight in related industries [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF focuses heavily on the semiconductor industry, with a weight of 66% in its components, including leading companies like Cambricon, SMIC, and Haiguang Information [1] - Domestic computing chips are gaining traction in the market, with major tech companies like Alibaba and Baidu increasing their procurement of local computing solutions [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a potential for two more rate cuts within the year, reflecting a dovish stance [2][4] - Concerns about the labor market have increased, with the Fed adjusting its language to indicate a slowdown in job growth and rising risks [3] Group 3 - Powell's statements suggest that future interest rate paths will depend on upcoming data, emphasizing that the recent rate cut was a "risk management cut" [4] - The Fed's balance sheet is expected to remain ample, indicating that quantitative tightening will continue [5] - The dovish stance of the Fed, combined with resilient economic fundamentals, is anticipated to support global liquidity and stock market performance [5][6]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至 4.00%—4.25%，这是自2023年12月 暂停加息以来，美联储再次启动降息周期。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，此次降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率。 这意味着美联储并不会进入持续性的降息周期，市场情绪因此降温。 降息消息公布后，美股冲高回落，截至收盘，道指上涨0.57%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500跌0.1%。 9月18日早盘，三大股指小幅高开。 一反常态的"一团和气" 此次降息决定以 11:1 的投票结果通过。新任理事斯蒂芬 米兰成为唯一反对者，他主张直接降息 50 基 点。米兰的立场与其政治背景紧密相关，作为特朗普提名并火速上任的理事，他长期公开批评现任主席 鲍威尔的政策节奏，并呼应特朗普的政治诉求，多次呼吁大幅降息以刺激经济。 值得注意的是，同样由特朗普提名的鹰派理事鲍曼和沃勒，此次却选择支持25个基点的渐进式降息。这 一现象被市场解读为他们试图在政治压力与专业判断之间寻求平衡。两人虽认可降息的必要性，但认为 25个基点的调整更契合当前经济数据，能有效避免过度刺激引发通胀反弹。 美联储的这种分歧在"点阵图"中 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, indicating a shift towards employment-focused policies rather than inflation-driven decisions [1][2][6] - The latest "dot plot" revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more rate cut this year, signaling a stronger dovish stance than previously anticipated [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, emphasizing the current weakness in the labor market while downplaying the likelihood of aggressive easing [1][6] Group 2 - UBS analysts noted the inconsistency in the Fed's actions, as they lowered rates while simultaneously predicting accelerated economic growth and rising inflation [4] - Market reactions were volatile, with initial optimism quickly reversing as Powell's comments led to a surge in bond yields and a decline in stock prices, particularly in tech stocks [7][12] - The Fed's cautious approach suggests a gradual easing of rates rather than a dramatic shift, with future policy decisions heavily reliant on upcoming economic data [10][13]

美联储又降息了，但市场却一点都高兴不起来。 美联储主席鲍威尔做了一件让华尔街交易员们皱眉头的事：他一边宣布了众人预料之中的降息决定，一边又亲手泼了一盆冷水， 直接驳斥了交易员们对于"即将开启一轮疯狂降息"的狂热押注。 这就像一位医生一边给病人开药，一边严肃告诫："这只是一剂预防针，别指望我会把整瓶药都给你。" TCW Group的布雷特·巴克一言中的："这不算鹰派，但比市场预期的更鹰派。美联储并没有真正认可市场的定价。关键在于，鲍 威尔仍将此次降息描述为风险管理。" 这场央行与市场之间的微妙博弈再次表明，在通胀担忧与经济放缓风险之间取得平衡并非易事。对于普通投资者而言，这意味着 未来几个月的市场波动可能将成为常态，美联储的每一步都将小心翼翼，而市场的每一次预期都需要经过深思熟虑。 本文仅代表作者个人观点，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 尽管美联储将基准利率下调了0.25个百分点，并且点阵图显示官员们预计今年还会再降两次，但鲍威尔明确表示，央行并未放弃 谨慎态度，对通胀风险始终保持警惕。他们顶住了特朗普总统要求更大幅度降息的压力，唯一的反对票来自特朗普刚刚任命至美 联储的一位白宫顾问。 "市场预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, rather than the anticipated 50 basis points, is expected to support a rebound in the US dollar while putting pressure on Asian currencies in the short term. Additionally, the recent surge in technology stocks may face profit-taking and a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in nine months aligns with market expectations, with the median forecast in the FOMC dot plot indicating three rate cuts this year and one more next year [1][2]. - The dot plot reveals a division among Fed officials, with 7 expecting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut, suggesting a potential stalemate on future rate decisions [2]. Market Reactions - Analysts from Wells Fargo and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank noted that the strong dollar is likely to affect Asian currencies, with high-beta currencies such as the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah being particularly sensitive [3]. - Following the Fed's announcement, the dollar initially faced selling pressure but rebounded as traders adjusted their positions based on the expectation of only one more rate cut next year [3]. Economic Outlook - Despite the potential for the dollar to rise to 147 yen, there remains a strong bearish sentiment towards the dollar, which may limit its upward potential [4]. - Analysts from TD Securities and VanEck expressed a bearish outlook on the dollar, viewing any technical rebounds as opportunities to short, while highlighting that economic growth outside the US appears stronger [5]. Future Considerations - The overall market response to the Fed's decision is expected to be muted, with potential for a pullback in the coming days as investors seek new catalysts for market highs [4]. - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are anticipated to be a significant focus for market participants, potentially influencing market dynamics [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision led to significant market volatility, with major U.S. stock indices initially rising before sharply declining, and the dollar index hitting a new low since 2025 before rebounding [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the rate cut of 25 basis points was a "risk management" move, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate adjustments [1] - Powell stated that the Fed will make decisions on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis moving forward, indicating a cautious outlook on monetary policy [1] Group 2 - FPG analysts noted that the Fed's uncertainty signals led to profit-taking in gold prices, resulting in a healthy correction or consolidation phase, with a key support level at $3,550 per ounce [2] - Analyst Chad highlighted that gold prices could retest historical highs, with potential upward targets of $3,750 and $3,800 per ounce, despite short-term overbought signals [2] - The first support level for gold is identified at $3,650 per ounce, with further targets at the September 11 low of $3,613 and $3,600 if the price breaks below [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,671 and support at $3,646, indicating strong momentum [3] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also reflects a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1831, 1.1861, and 1.1886, and support at 1.1771 and 1.1735 [4]