国家统计局数据显示，2025年9月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.3%。其中，城市下降0.2%，农村下 降0.5%；食品价格下降4.4%，非食品价格上涨0.7%；消费品价格下降0.8%，服务价格上涨0.6%。1— 9月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.1%。9月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.1%。其中， 城市持平，农村上涨0.2%；食品价格上涨0.7%，非食品价格下降0.1%；消费品价格上涨0.3%，服务价 格下降0.3%。国家统计局数据还显示，2025年9月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.3%，降幅比 上月收窄0.6个百分点，环比继续持平。工业生产者购进价格同比下降3.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.9个百分 点，环比上涨0.1%。1—9月平均，工业生产者出厂价格比上年同期下降2.8%，工业生产者购进价格下 降3.2%。 其中石油开采价格下降2.7%，精炼石油产品制造价格下降1.5%，有机化学原料制造价格下降0.6%，化 学纤维制造业价格下降0.2%。 PPI同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。除受上年同期对比基数走低影响外，我国各项宏观政 策效果持续显现，一些行业价格呈现积极变化。一是全 ...

国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年9月份CPI和PPI数据。PPI环比连续两个月持平。本月 PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是供需结构改善带动部分行业价格明显企稳。煤炭加工价格环比上涨 3.8%，煤炭开采和洗选业价格上涨2.5%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨0.2%，均连续两个月上 涨，光伏设备及元器件制造价格由上月下降0.2%转为上涨0.8%；非金属矿物制品业、锂离子电池制造 价格分别下降0.4%和0.2%，降幅比上月分别收窄0.6个和0.3个百分点。二是输入性因素影响国内石油相 关行业价格环比下降。国际油价下行带动国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。其中石油开采价格下降 2.7%，精炼石油产品制造价格下降1.5%，有机化学原料制造价格下降0.6%，化学纤维制造业价格下降 0.2%。 PPI同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。除受上年同期对比基数走低影响外，我国各项宏观政 策效果持续显现，一些行业价格呈现积极变化。一是全国统一大市场建设纵深推进带动相关行业价格同 比降幅收窄。部分行业产能治理成效显现，市场竞争秩序持续优化，价格同比降幅收窄。煤炭加工、黑 色金属冶炼和压延加工业、煤炭开采和洗 ...

9月份，消费市场运行总体平稳，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，市 场竞争秩序持续优化，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平；同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收 窄0.6个百分点。 央视网消息：国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年9月份CPI和PPI数据。 CPI同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。本月CPI-0.3% 的同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.8个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.5个百分点。分类别看，食品 和能源价格下降。其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个 百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。食品中，猪肉、鲜菜、鸡蛋和鲜果价格分别下降17.0%、 13.7%、13.5%和4.2%，合计影响CPI同比下降约0.78个百分点；牛肉和羊肉价格分别上涨4.6%和0.8%， 其中羊肉价格为连续下降44个月后首次转涨。能源价格下降2.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.2 ...

2025年9月份核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大 PPI同比降幅继续收窄 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年9月份CPI和PPI数据 CPI同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。本月CPI-0.3% 的同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.8个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.5个百分点。分类别看，食品 和能源价格下降。其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个 百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。食品中，猪肉、鲜菜、鸡蛋和鲜果价格分别下降17.0%、 13.7%、13.5%和4.2%，合计影响CPI同比下降约0.78个百分点；牛肉和羊肉价格分别上涨4.6%和0.8%， 其中羊肉价格为连续下降44个月后首次转涨。能源价格下降2.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.20个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到 1%。其中，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨1.8%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大。工业消费品中，金饰品和 铂金饰品价格分别上涨42.1%和33.6%，家 ...

中国9月PPI同比 -2.3%，前值 -2.9%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

中国9月CPI年率-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%。CPI月率+0.1%，预期0.2%，前值0.0%。PPI年率-2.3%，预期-2.3%，前值-2.9%。PPI月率0.0%，前值0.0%。 https://t.co/zjhI3Dj5M4 ...

9月生猪产能供过于求，猪肉价格持续探底。中金宏观认为，在需求增量疲弱下，"反内卷"产能去化需 要遵循养殖周期，短期供强需弱格局未改，9月猪肉批发价环比继续走弱，同比降幅从25.0%稍微走阔 至26.3%。 能源价格方面，民生银行首经团队指出，9月国内成品油价格未调整，因国际市场油价波动幅度未达 《石油价格管理办法》规定的50元/吨阈值。 国家统计局将于10月15日9时30分公布9月物价数据。 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比降幅可能 收窄；翘尾因素拖累减弱，9月全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比降幅有望收窄。 9月CPI降幅或收窄 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月CPI同比降幅可能收窄。 据国家统计局，8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，环比持平。 对9月份CPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所 的预测值分别为-0.3%、0%、-0.2%、-0.1%、-0.2%左右。 对9月份PPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所的 预测值分别为 ...

Core Insights - The PPI trends in China, the US, and Europe have diverged significantly post-pandemic, with China experiencing low PPI, the US maintaining relatively high PPI, and Europe showing considerable volatility. This divergence is primarily attributed to differences in energy structures and demand dynamics across these regions [1][4]. Energy Structure Impact - China's PPI is highly sensitive to coal prices, which are currently low due to weak demand and expanded supply. The domestic coal production has exceeded historical levels, and the demand from traditional sectors like real estate has decreased, leading to a prolonged low PPI [8][18]. - The US has a strong energy independence, primarily relying on oil and natural gas. The PPI is less affected by energy price fluctuations compared to Europe, with stable natural gas prices and a significant impact from rising oil prices due to global supply and demand dynamics [11][13]. - Europe's PPI has been significantly influenced by volatile natural gas prices, especially following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to a sharp increase in energy costs. The subsequent measures to reduce dependency on Russian gas have also contributed to PPI fluctuations [14][22]. Demand Dynamics - In China, the transition from traditional to new economic drivers is underway, with the real estate sector in a downturn. This has led to reduced demand for related products, suppressing PPI. However, new economic drivers are beginning to support a gradual recovery in PPI [2][16]. - The US has shown strong demand resilience due to substantial fiscal stimulus during the pandemic, which increased disposable income and consumer spending. Despite rising labor costs and interest rates, the PPI has only seen moderate declines [19][20]. - Europe is experiencing a mild recovery in demand post-pandemic, but high energy costs and external demand declines have previously suppressed PPI. Recent economic recovery efforts and fiscal policies are expected to support a gradual increase in PPI [15][22].

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" compared to the market [1][118] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry shows strong resilience with improvements in both domestic and international sales [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a slight recovery in manufacturing, with the PMI index at 49.4% in August 2025, still in the contraction zone, but production PMI at 50.8% indicates expansion [2][6] - Fixed asset investment in China reached 326,111 billion yuan from January to August 2025, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.4% and manufacturing investment by 5.1% [14] Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is 49.4%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating marginal improvement but still in contraction [2][6] - The PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August 2025, ending an eight-month decline, while the CPI fell by 0.4% [11] - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 totaled 326,111 billion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase, with infrastructure investment up 5.4% and real estate investment down 13.2% [14] 2. China Engineering Machinery Sales Overview - From January to August 2025, excavator sales reached 154,181 units, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 21.5% [19][26] - Sales of various machinery types showed mixed results, with tower cranes down 34.5% and high-altitude work vehicles up 40.5% [27][41][100] - Overall, the sales of construction machinery reflect a structural divergence, with some categories like excavators and loaders performing well while others like tower cranes are struggling [51][56]