（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引 言 "风乍起，吹皱一池春水"。4月3日，特朗普政府一纸关税新政再次搅动全球资本市场。与五年前不同，这一 次美国政府高调宣布启动"对等关税"，对全球主要经济体再次加征高额关税。 4月4日，中国国务院关税税则 委员会宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征34%的关税。受此冲击，全球资本市场迅速作出剧烈反应，标 普500指数两日累计下跌逾10%，创下自2020年3月疫情初期以来最大两日跌幅，欧洲及亚太市场主要股指也 齐齐重挫。 "山雨欲来风满楼"。 4月9日， 美国正式落地对中国加征的 50% 关税，累计税率达到 104% 。随即中国反 制，迅速追加对美关税至 84% 。直至10日凌晨，特朗普宣称对中国税率提高至 125% 。 表面看，"对等关 税"似乎不过是美国政府在贸易博弈中的又一次强硬施压，但深究其本质，这更可能是特朗普政府在"制度层 面"发起的一次路径变革。 历史表明，当国际制度收益不再普遍共享时，变革的动力往往来自制度外部的极限冲击。特朗普的关税举措正 代表了这一类型的外部冲击——其看似政策博弈的外表之下，暗藏的是全球资本秩序重塑的制度锚点。 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry faces challenges due to global tariff disruptions initiated by Trump, impacting stock prices and operational forecasts for the year [1] Group 1: Salary Adjustments - TSMC will maintain its annual salary adjustment in April, with an estimated increase of 3% to 5% for this year, similar to previous years [1] - TSMC's structural salary adjustment reached 20% in 2021, but has since returned to a normal adjustment range of below 10% [1] - UMC plans to follow suit with its salary adjustments in May, also considering company profitability and industry competition [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$2.8943 trillion for the previous year, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [1] - The net profit for TSMC was NT$1.1732 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.9%, with earnings per share reaching NT$45.25, an increase of nearly 40% [1] - The board of TSMC approved employee bonuses totaling NT$140.59256 billion, averaging over NT$2 million per employee, which is a record high [1]

以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者刀马 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 出海新阶段。 作者 | 刀马 来源 | 霞光社 （ID：Globalinsights） 全世界的焦点，都集中在前几天美国颁布"对等关税"的行政令，以及中国提出的对等反 制措施。 这件事的影响很大，看似是中美两大国的贸易战，但本质上是全球贸易大变局中的必经 之路。起码从影响范围来看，我们都被迫成为了局中人，为此分担代价，或许只是时间 问题。 先简单回顾下事件： 4月3日，特朗普在白宫签署亮相关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令：美国将对所有贸易伙伴 设立10%的"最低基准关税"，一些贸易伙伴征收更高，对中国商品加征3 4%关税，于美 国东部时间4月9日生效。 中国的反制措施迅速且强硬：宣布对所有美国商品加征34%的关税，并将11家美国企业 列入不可靠实体清单，暂停六家美国企业的产品对华输出资质，还对部分稀土相关物项 实施出口管制等措施。 一来一回，全球经济开始遭遇近年来少有的重大利空：股市暴跌，大宗商品遭遇恐慌性 抛售。高盛本周甚至将美国GDP增速预测从之前的1.7%下调至0.5%，同时预测美国经 济衰退概率为4 5%，称美国正在进入"衰退倒计时"。 主动挑 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face consolidation in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to large emotional fluctuations, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [2]. - **Corn**: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: After a sharp decline to release risks, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out at an appropriate time [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6]. - **Steel**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will fluctuate at a low level [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: With sufficient supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level, but the upward space is limited [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp decline in the WTI main contract after the holiday, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/barrel of the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12]. - **PVC**: Due to weak macro - sentiment, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The 05 contract of soda ash continued to decline yesterday, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: During the current period, it is the sowing season of US soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is almost completed. The new South American soybean crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium - term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,140 yuan/ton (+40), Tianjin 3,340 yuan/ton (+70), Rizhao 3,300 yuan/ton (+100), and Dongguan 3,050 yuan/ton (+40) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is nearly finished, and the export of US soybeans is still pessimistically expected. The arrival of imported soybeans is increasing, and the terminal breeding demand is average. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia are 2,088 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,293 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture, bulk density 680 - 720) is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton; and at Bayuquan Port (bulk density 680 - 730, 15% moisture) is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The US corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. The domestic farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the overall supply - demand pattern is improving. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan/ton, down 4,540 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets. The domestic policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. The raw material shock is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (-1,400), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 79,100 yuan/ton (-1,400). The price difference between the two is 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of lithium spodumene concentrate has been lowered. The weekly operating rate is increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been continuously accumulating [5]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan/ton, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory of rebar is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, and the contango structure has weakened. The cost center of steel is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the supply and demand are both strong [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons; and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is still sluggish, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 95.65, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 749 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the global port inventory has reached a new high since 2023. The demand is weak, and the market is worried about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The US has postponed the collection of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries for 90 days and reduced tariffs on some countries to 10%, while maintaining a 129% tariff on China. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the US PMI data in February contracted. The trade war and the Russia - Ukraine conflict have increased uncertainties, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely affected [10]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber 16,350 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is concerned about the import volume and inventory changes of rubber in China [12]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price difference between the two is 330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased due to various factors. The futures price has fallen due to macro - tariff factors, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [13]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,462.38 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,525 yuan/ton, 1,575 yuan/ton, and 1,450 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged month - on - month [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash has increased, and the production has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is average, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced goods. The global tariff disturbance still exists, and the short - term futures price is under pressure [15].

4月9日下午，青岛银行（002948.SZ）副行长刘鹏在该行2024年度业绩发布会上回应称，特朗普关税带 来的影响值得关注，该行涉外业务占比相对较低，客户端已经采取应对措施，预计对该行的整体影响有 限。 总体看经营业绩，2024年，青岛银行实现营业收入134.98亿元，比上年增加10.25亿元，增长8.22%；归 母净利润42.64亿元，比上年增加7.16亿元，增幅20.16%。 截至2024年末，青岛银行资产总额达到6899.63亿元，比上年末增加819.78亿元，增幅13.48%。其中， 客户贷款总额3406.90亿元，比上年末增加406.00亿元，增长13.53%。 美"对等关税"对各行业影响备受关注，银行业被认为可能在信贷需求、净息差、资产质量等方面承受额 外压力。 刘鹏表示，"对等关税"短期内会对外贸业务集中的企业带来一定冲击，但长期来看会加速整个产业链的 重组升级，企业出海的需求会加大不会减少。"对商业银行来说,这里面孕育了很多的业务机会。"他 说。 "从结算规模来看，青岛银行涉美贸易占比比较低，涉美业务集中度也很低，且经过前期调研，客户端 已经采取一些应对措施，因此对全行的影响是有限的。"刘鹏表 ...

随着特朗普政府全面启动对等关税，世界各国急于与美国进行单独谈判。各国相继提出了降 低从美国进口的关税、扩大购买美国产品等让步方案。美国政府表现出根据谈判情况放宽关 税的态度，为达成交易而展开的竞争在激化。 在对等关税即将全面启动的4月8日，特朗普与韩国代总统韩德洙首次进行了电话磋商。磋商 结束后，特朗普在自己的社交媒体上发文称，"韩国的顶级团队正在前往美国，情况良好"，强 调"其他国家也正在试图进行交易"。 韩国政府透露，韩德洙提议在特朗普视为美国国内制造业复兴象征的造船业和美国产液化天 然气(LNG)出口方面进行合作。已派遣负责贸易的阁僚立即前往美国华盛顿。 特朗普对日本和韩国等同盟国也毫不留情地征收了对等关税。 日本首相石破茂提名经济财政再生相赤泽亮正与负责对日谈判的美国财政部长贝森特对接。 石破茂已派遣外务省和经济产业省的审议官，为正式启动谈判而进行协调。日本计划将扩大 美国产LNG进口等能源和安全保障等作为一揽子政策提出，推进谈判。 美国总统特朗普（资料图，Reuters） 越南表示正在准备协商将从美国进口的关税降至0%，柬埔寨表示下调对美国产食品和汽车等的关 税，印度尼西亚除了扩大小麦和棉花的进口之 ...

Key Insights on Local Government Bonds - The local government bonds can be classified based on project revenue attributes into general bonds and special bonds, and based on funding purposes into new bonds and refinancing bonds [2][4] - The average issuance term of local government bonds has increased from 6.3 years in 2015 to 14.8 years by February 2025, influenced by the relaxation of special bond issuance policies [5][11] - The total issuance scale of local government bonds is expected to reach around 1 trillion yuan in 2025, with new general bonds at 80 billion yuan and new special bonds at 440 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 2024 [11][12] Key Insights on the Technology Sector - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US may provide short-term protection for domestic tech industries but could weaken innovation and competitiveness in the long run [14] - The tariffs may lead to trade partner retaliation, increasing operational costs and uncertainties for tech companies in affected countries like China, while also accelerating their push for technological self-reliance [14][19] - The impact of tariffs on the tech sector is complex, with potential for both challenges and opportunities as companies adapt to new market conditions [14][19] Key Insights on the Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the current geopolitical tensions, with the US's tariff policies having limited impact on domestic military industries due to their high level of self-sufficiency [18][22] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is anticipated to serve as a catalyst for the military industry, with increased investment opportunities [22] - The military sector's valuation is currently at 44.9%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the tech sector [22] Key Insights on the Chemical Industry - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60-70 USD per barrel, with industry cost pressures easing but requiring attention to inventory conversion losses [31][33] - The domestic economic stimulus policies are likely to enhance the potential for structural opportunities within the chemical industry, particularly in response to increased domestic demand [33]

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨和佳 "她那时候还太年轻，不知道所有命运赠送的礼物，早已在暗中标好了价码。" 1 9 3 2年，著名作家斯蒂芬·茨威格在《断头王后》中对玛丽·安托 瓦内特的命运唏嘘不已。 美元头上的王冠，象征着荣耀，也意味着责任，但滥用会遭遇"反噬"，恰如"断头王后"的坠落。 随着美国总统特朗普"对等关税"引爆世界对 美国的"信任危机"，美债的地位岌岌可危，一场抛售潮席卷而至，滥用优势的苦果开始显现。 在特朗普对世界推出百年未见的高关税后，短短数日， 美债市场已然"变天"。 上周避险情绪一度推动美债大涨，而到了本周，美债连日暴 跌。4月7日，1 0年期美债收益率飙升1 6个基点，8日再度大涨1 3个基点。4月9日，1 0年期美债收益率一度升破4 . 5%关口，较4月4日3 . 8 6%的 低位暴涨逾6 0个基点，3 0年期美债收益率更是直冲5%关口。 " 美债市场正在崩溃 "，4月9日，欧洲太平洋资本（Eu r o Pa c ifi c Ca p it a l）CEO兼首席全球策略师彼得·希夫（Pe t e r Sc h iff）在社交媒体上 发出警告。 但尴尬的是，在特朗普关税政策的通胀效应下，美联储 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2505 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 利多因素支撑，原油企稳反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，随着关税战事件 不断发酵，中美两国继续互相加征关税。外盘股市商品期货市场大幅下跌消化利空风险。隔夜美国 总统特朗普在其 Tru ...

随着全球市场对美国所谓的"对等关税"担忧加剧，美国债券市场出现动荡，1 0年期、3 0年期 的美债收益率快速上涨。长期以来，美债是全球金融市场动荡时的避险资产，但这一次却成 为资本逃离的对象。这意味着美国发动的关税战正在制造全球系统性金融风险。 我国的挑战之一是需避免由外而内输入的市场担忧情绪。目前中国的输入性金融风险相对较 小，但是，如果投资者看到美国市场大跌，从而跟随性抛售手里的资产，比如股票、住宅， 就会打压资产价格，从而对金融体系产生影响，对信心与消费带来影响。因此，政府需以鲜 明的立场与真实的金融力量稳定股市和楼市，避免市场担忧和信心流失。 美国政府突然抛出加征"对等关税"的政策，试图以极限施压的方式让各国迅速妥协 。理论上 而 言 ， 出 口 大 国 最 早 受 到 冲 击 ， 而 美 国 作 为 进 口 大 国 则 可 能 因 为 囤 货 等 因 素 ， 影 响 更 迟 出 现，且在前期具有一定心理优势。此外，美国政府试图通过冲击股市压低长期利率，从过去 的经验看，美国股市动荡往往会让债市成为全球资金避风港，从而压低债券收益率，有助于 减轻美国联邦债务的利息成本。 在过去，当一些国际投资者对中国 ...