过去几天，美股的大涨、以及全球股市的狂欢，似乎都在为庆祝一件事情，那就是因为不及预期的CPI数据，或者说美联储内部对降息的分歧，市场存在另 外一种预期，那就是9月份不仅仅降息25个基点，可能出现大幅度降息。 香港恒生指数 最新:25519.320 25778 25737 25696 25655 25614 25573 25532 25491 25450 3.32 2.21 1.11 亿 09:30 10:30 10:00 当然这个事情也有背后的呼吁者，美国财长贝森特在接受采访的时候表示，觉得未来会进行一系列降息，9月份先降息50个基点，这让市场有些震惊，还有 就是贝森特觉得不管参考哪种模型，利率未来可能都应该降低到150至175个基点。 我感觉昨天A股调整，多少与此有些关联度，包括港股在下午的回落，当然主要原因还是在市场自身，因为核心蓝筹的大幅度拉升，使得市场资金的分歧开 始加大，特别是最终造成了4000多只个股下跌，一般而言当大部分个股下跌的时候，仅仅有少部分个股上涨的路也不会太长，这对A股来说如此情形已经演 绎了很多次。 所以接下来的走势，我大概率觉得市场震荡几天，拉升指数的蓝筹股短期内该休息了，因为任务 ...

2025.08. 15 本文字数：1166，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周四涨跌不一，标普500指数微升0.03%续创收盘新高，道指和纳指则几乎持平，高于预 期的通胀数据抑制了投资者对美联储年内降息幅度的预期，压制了股市上行动能。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数微跌0.02%报44911.26点；标普500指数涨0.03%报6468.54点；纳斯达克 指数跌0.01%报21710.67点。标普500指数11个板块中七个下跌。 CFRA Research首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔（Sam Stovall）称，按远期市盈率计算，标普500 当前估值较20年均值高出近四成，PPI数据的超预期让投资者对降息前景更为犹豫。 美国劳工部数据显示，7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，为三年来最大单月升幅，远高于 市场预期的0.2%；同比升幅3.3%，亦超出预期的2.5%。剔除食品和能源后的核心PPI环比涨幅 0.9%，同比上涨3.7%，大幅高于前一个月2.6%的同比增长。 数据反映，服务和商品成本齐升，通 胀回落进程可能面临阻力。 受此影响， 伦敦证交所集团（LSEG）数据显示，市场对美联储今 ...

俄罗斯总统普京：有可能与美国达成新的军备协议 美联储隔夜逆回购工具使用规模创2021年4月以来新低 据悉特朗普政府正商讨入股英特尔 美国7月PPI环比大增0.9%！创三年来最大增幅 美国财长贝森特：不太可能会重新评估美国黄金储备持仓，将停止出售比特币持仓 美联储官员反驳9月大幅降息的预期 特朗普：此次与普京的会晤为第二次会晤定下基础，如果问题解决不了，将实施制裁 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 中国央行今日将开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作 香港证监会及香港金管局就稳定币相关市场波动发表联合声明 长和最新表态：预计今年不会完成港口交易，将邀请内地投资者加入 市场盘点 周四，美元指数有所反弹，随后因美国7月PPI指数高于预期，或暗示未来几个月通胀将普遍上升，美指扩大涨幅并重回98关口上方，最终收涨0.43%，报 98.17；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.290%，2年期美债收益率收报3.741%。 现货黄金日内持续下挫，并在美盘时段一度跌破3330美元关口，较日高大跌超40美元，最终收跌0.6 ...

Group 1 - The US July PPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The US July PPI month-on-month rate recorded a 0.9% increase, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 is 224,000, slightly below the expected 228,000 [1] Group 2 - Binance co-founder He Yi has been selected as a global leader by Fortune, co-owning the venture capital arm YZi Labs and holding at least 10% of Binance's parent company [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Bitcoin reserves are valued between $15 billion and $20 billion, and there will be no purchases of cryptocurrency reserves [2] - Bessent indicated a potential for a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 25 basis point reduction [2] Group 3 - Tron founder Justin Sun has filed a lawsuit against Bloomberg in Delaware, claiming the disclosure of his crypto assets violates previous confidentiality agreements [2] - The Guizhou provincial government has refuted rumors regarding a former official allegedly mining 327 Bitcoins, clarifying that the case is unrelated to Bitcoin [3]

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first pause in rate cuts since an unexpected 25 basis point reduction in June [2][3] - The central bank's governor, Ida Walden Bache, indicated that the fight against inflation is not yet complete, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected, there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate to "slightly below 4%" [2] - Current inflation data remains high, with core inflation at 3.1% in June and July, significantly above the target of 2%, which limits the space for further rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The central bank's previous rate cut in June was the first since the pandemic, aimed at addressing inflation that, while easing, still exceeds targets [3] - External factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, are influencing the Norwegian market, with a high probability of a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The Norwegian central bank is cautious about further easing, as additional cuts could weaken the Norwegian krone and may need to reserve policy tools to respond to worsening economic conditions [3]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【机构调查：市场对美联储九月会议预期巨变，交易员首预计降息50个基点】机构调查显示，市场对美 联储九月会议的预期出现了巨大改变。依据Kalshi的数据，交易员们首次预计降息50个基点。多数受访 者依然认为会降息25个基点，不过"保持不变"和"更大幅度降息"之间的平衡正在反转，这表明一些人开 始接受更为激进的宽松政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that there is room for a series of interest rate cuts, starting potentially with a 25 basis point reduction, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining a belief in the neutral interest rate being at a lower level [1] Group 1 - The Treasury Secretary did not call for the Federal Reserve to lower rates to 1.5%, suggesting a more gradual approach to rate cuts [1] - There is a focus on reducing the spread between mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasury bonds as a key objective [1] - Becerra clarified that there is no call for consecutive rate cuts, but rather a suggestion that models indicate the neutral rate could be lower [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the freight index (Europe line) futures prices fluctuated slightly. The main contract EC2510 closed down 0.18%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The spot indicators continued to decline, and the market sentiment turned cold. Due to the "price war" among leading shipping companies, the advance release of cargo volume in the second quarter, and various tariff measures, the supply - demand mismatch remained unchanged, leading to a downward trend in futures prices. Although the US consumer side showed resilience, inflation risks still existed, and China's counter - measures against the EU further intensified trade tensions. The demand expectation for the freight index (Europe line) was weak, and the futures prices had large fluctuations. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators might drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1359.500, down 2.4; EC second - main contract closing price: 1723.3, up 27.6 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 363.80, up 3.20; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 161.90, down 7.00 - EC contract basis: 875.98, down 88.78 - EC main contract open interest: 56698, down 4042 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (Europe line) (weekly): 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1082.14, down 47.98 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1489.68, down 61.06; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (Europe line) (weekly): 1799.05, up 9.55 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2025.00, down 8.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1594.00, up 1.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13658.00, up 230.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 25955.00, down 531.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - Four departments including the central bank detailed two discount interest policies, which were an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption. After the policy expired, an effect evaluation would be carried out, and the policy period might be extended or the support scope might be expanded - Trump might propose to jointly develop rare earth resources in Alaska with Putin during the Russia - US summit and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts. The US might increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia if the meeting went poorly - US Treasury Secretary Besent called for an immediate new round of interest rate cuts by the Fed, believing that the Fed might start earlier and there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September. There were 10 or 11 candidates for the Fed chairman [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - China's July year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods at 10:00 on August 15 - China's July year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries at 10:00 on August 15 - China's year - to - date year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment in July at 10:00 on August 15 - US July month - on - month growth rate of retail sales at 20:30 on August 15 - US July month - on - month growth rate of industrial production at 21:15 on August 15 - US preliminary August one - year inflation rate expectation at 22:00 on August 15 [1]

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货8月14日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计1150782千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加15684千克。 沪银主力短线维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报9332元/千克，最高触及9368元/千克，最低触及9268 元/千克，截止收盘报9286元/千克，上涨0.77%。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 123093 0 外运华东虹桥 190657 0 中工美供应链 499630 4869 合计 813380 4869 广东 深圳威豹 337402 10815 总计 1150782 15684 【基本面消息】 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周三表示，他无法安心地认为关税不会推高通胀，也不确信美国劳动力市场正 在恶化——这是部分支持降息的同僚提出的两个理由。但他同时为在9月16-17日美联储政策会议前转变 立场敞开大门，称若就业市场明显恶化，降息将是必然选择；且完全有可能先降息，再根据新数据暂停 或逆转政策路径。古尔斯比表示"今年秋季的所有会议都可能是政策调整的窗口。"他强调需要看到连续 数月通胀数据向好，才能确信通胀正回归2%目标，从而支持降息。他指出，目前仅有两个月的温和数 据，而最新CPI数 ...

Group 1 - The yield on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds is nearing its lowest point in over three months, indicating traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts next month [1] - The two-year Treasury yield is hovering around 3.67%, down nearly 30 basis points since late July, primarily following the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] - The core support for the market's strength is based on investor expectations that Federal Reserve officials will implement the first interest rate cut of the year during the September meeting, influenced by ongoing pressure from President Trump [1] Group 2 - The ten-year Treasury yield has also declined to around 4.22%, down 15 basis points since late July, showing a mild downward trend [3] - Market sentiment has significantly reversed compared to two weeks ago, when the probability of a rate cut in September was below 50%, a shift triggered by the release of weak employment reports [3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet has joined the call for rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point cut in December may be appropriate, and stated that rates "should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points" [3]