1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - strategy area, there are different expectations for Fed's interest - rate cuts, which affect the prices of gold, dollar, and stocks. In the commodity market, different commodities face different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing risks of price correction and others showing potential for price increase [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 if the labor market remains robust. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, with the market risk preference remaining high. The divergence among Fed officials lies in inflation pressure. The market will focus on economic data, and gold is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short term [10] - Investment advice: Gold prices have not escaped the volatile trend in the short term [11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since December 2021 on August 13, and the margin trading balance also hit a new high. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been issued [12][13] - Investment advice: Allocate stocks evenly among different stock indexes [14] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US State Department imposed visa restrictions on government officials from Brazil and other countries. US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for at least a 150 - basis - point rate cut, and Trump may appoint a new Fed chairman earlier, which increased market risk preference and weakened the US dollar [15][16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [18] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Bostic prefers to wait for a clearer understanding of the situation before making adjustments, while Bessent believes the Fed may start rate cuts earlier, and the market's rate - cut expectation has further increased. The Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Index led the gains, but there are still risks of correction [19] - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain strong under the rate - cut expectation, but inflation risks may increase market volatility [20] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's M1 growth rate in July was 5.6%, exceeding market expectations. The financial data divergence is not contradictory. The private sector's willingness to increase loans is weak, but fiscal policies have improved corporate cash flow. It is expected that financial data will not improve significantly in the short term, and M1 growth will peak in September. The bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market [21][23] - Investment advice: Allocation investors can gradually buy when the 10Y and 30Y interest rates are close to 1.75% and 2.0% respectively, and trading investors should be cautious when betting on rebounds [24] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA's weekly export sales report to show a net increase of 60 - 160 million tons of US soybean exports. The CBOT soybean price has been rising, and domestic soybean meal prices have also strengthened. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning [25] - Investment advice: Maintain the view that soybean meal prices will fluctuate upward, and focus on the development of Sino - US relations [25] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia will raise the export tariff of crude palm oil to 10% in September 2025. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. The oil market continued to fluctuate strongly [26][27] - Investment advice: Buy on dips for the three major oils, as prices are expected to continue to strengthen as inventory depletion accelerates [28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. Supply was affected by safety inspections, and demand was affected by the production restrictions of some coke enterprises. The coke price has been raised for the sixth round [29] - Investment advice: The short - term upward momentum of the futures market is weak. Pay attention to the impact of policies and demand changes [30] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, the export of passenger cars was 499,000, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The decline of coking coal futures prices led to a weakening of steel prices. The actual supply reduction may be limited, and there is a risk of price correction [31][33] - Investment advice: The market will fluctuate in the short term, and be vigilant against market fluctuations and correction risks [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton export in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach a record 2.82 million tons. The USDA August report lowered the estimated production and ending inventory of US and global cotton. Some large cotton trading enterprises in China have started pre - purchasing new cotton [35][36] - Investment advice: The USDA report has a short - term positive impact on the outer market, but the upward drive may be limited. The domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high [39] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of the corn starch industry has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the开机 rate will remain weakly volatile year - on - year, which is negative for future profits [40] - Investment advice: There is no driving force for the price difference between rice flour and corn starch to strengthen. The price difference between North China and Northeast China may be unfavorable to the 09 contract in September [41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to lower prices to test the market. The price of corn was weak, while the price in the northern port was stable. The CBOT corn price fell sharply due to the increase in planted area and yield [42] - Investment advice: The medium - and long - term downward trend of corn prices is expected to continue [42] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tiankang Bio has completed about 50% of its annual target. The pig - breeding industry is in the stage of policy implementation, and the short - term performance of near - month and far - month contracts is different [43] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage [44] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - It is still difficult to purchase domestic ore in some areas. Overseas prices are falling, and ore supply is temporarily sufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46] - Investment advice: Wait and see [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The import of lead concentrates will be restricted by new regulations on harmful elements, but the actual impact on import volume is limited. The price of primary lead is more competitive, and the demand is in the stage of waiting for verification of the peak season [49] - Investment advice: Hold long positions established at low prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc futures price fluctuated. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the structural risk was still high. The domestic supply was high, and the demand was stable. The short - term trading of zinc is difficult [54] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, manage positions well; for arbitrage, pay attention to the mid - term positive arbitrage opportunity; for domestic - foreign trading, wait and see [54] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - An accident occurred at Albemarle's lithium factory in Chile, and it is under investigation. The suspension of production at Ningde's mine will lead to a reduction in lithium carbonate production and a decrease in inventory [55] - Investment advice: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [55] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Carsurin will build a large - scale photovoltaic power station to support the nickel industry in Indonesia. The LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The price of nickel ore is expected to be seasonally weak in September - October [56][57] - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity; in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices [58] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in September has increased, which will support the copper price. The domestic copper inventory is low, but the LME and COMEX inventory accumulation is expected to limit the short - term increase of copper price [63] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH plants plan to stop for maintenance. The US C3 inventory increased, and the congestion of the Panama Canal may ease in late August, which will weaken the cost support [64][65] - Investment advice: The relative valuation of FEI will weaken marginally in late August [66] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA slightly lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026. The US EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories decreased. Oil prices fluctuated weakly [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Oil prices will remain volatile in the short term [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price fell slightly. The cost pressure increased due to the decline of raw material prices. The domestic PX load may increase marginally in August, and the price will fluctuate with crude oil and macro - sentiment [71] - Investment advice: The price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term [72] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price fell, and the basis was stable. The demand was weak, and the supply of some plants decreased due to low processing fees. The price will fluctuate with crude oil and macro - sentiment [73][74] - Investment advice: The price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was moderate. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term [75][76] - Investment advice: The caustic soda spot price has bottomed out, and the futures price will fluctuate [76] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed a stronger trend. The prices of some imported pulp increased, while the prices of some other types remained stable. The price increase is limited due to poor supply - demand [77] - Investment advice: The pulp futures price will rise with the overall commodity sentiment, but the upward space is limited [78] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted. The fundamentals are weak, but the macro - positive factors and rising coal prices support the price. The market will fluctuate [79] - Investment advice: The PVC market will fluctuate [79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips changed little, and the price decreased due to the decline of polyester raw materials. The major bottle - chip factories will continue the production - cut state, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [80][81] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips will follow the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [81]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose over 2%, with Alibaba, Baidu, and Netease increasing by over 3%, and JD.com up over 1% [2] - The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks small-cap stocks sensitive to interest rates, increased nearly 2%, reaching a six-month high [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 6 basis points to 4.24% and the 2-year yield down 5 basis points to 3.68% [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary called for a rate cut, suggesting a potential reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, with a 95.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3] Company Specifics - Apple shares rose by 1.6% as the company considers expanding into robotics and security sectors [1] - Amazon's stock increased by 1.4%, while Tesla, Google, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft experienced slight declines [1]

今日必读🛝美财长称应累计降息至少150基点🪅中国新增贷款二十年来首度萎缩🪁苹果拟在人工智能领域大展拳脚获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/UMgnYhGf8U ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 贝森特关于9月可能降息50基点的言论，提振美国股债。资金未扎堆于大型科技股，罗素小盘股指表现远超大盘，比特币创历史新高。 道指涨超460点。科技七巨头整体落后于大盘，仅苹果和亚马逊收涨。热门股Coreweave暴跌20%。"币圈新贵"Bullish上市首日一度暴涨近200%。中概股指 涨超2%、跑赢大盘，腾讯涨7.4%，阿里巴巴涨3.6%。 美债收益率普跌，10年期收益率跌5.6基点。美元两连跌。以太坊和比特币均涨逾2%。黄金小幅上涨。 原油库存意外增加、需求预期下调以及市场对特朗普与普京会晤的期待，油价跌至6月初以来的最低。内盘期货夜市多数收跌，焦煤跌超4.5%，焦炭跌超 2.7%。 GPT-5上线遭用户批"冷漠疏离"，OpenAI紧急让GPT-4o回归。 "币圈"又一大热股IPO，众多大佬加持，CoinDesk母公司Bullish美股首秀盘中翻倍涨。 市场收报 亚洲时段，A股放量大涨，沪指突破"924"高点，全市场成交破2万亿，AI硬件、医药爆发，恒科指创三个月最大涨幅，科网股普涨。 要闻 中国7月新增社融1.16万亿元，人 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs during the session. As of the report, the Dow Jones increased by 0.59%, the S&P 500 by 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.13% [1] - Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 2% [3] Company Highlights - Individual stocks saw significant gains, with Bilibili rising over 6%, and NetEase, Alibaba, and Li Auto each increasing by over 3%. Tencent Holdings' ADR rose nearly 7%, reaching a market capitalization exceeding $700 billion [4] - Tencent Holdings released its mid-term and Q2 2025 earnings report, showing total revenue of 364.53 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025. Operating profit was 117.67 billion RMB, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 103.45 billion RMB [6] - For Q2 2025, Tencent reported total revenue of 184.5 billion RMB, a 15% year-on-year increase, with operating profit of 69.2 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year. The gross margin reached 57%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Tencent's three main business segments all experienced revenue growth: Value-added services at 91.4 billion RMB (up 16% YoY), Marketing services at 35.8 billion RMB (up 20% YoY), and Financial technology and enterprise services at 55.5 billion RMB (up 10% YoY) [6] - Tencent emphasized the deep integration of AI into its gaming, advertising, and social ecosystems, with CEO Ma Huateng noting continued investment and benefits from AI in Q2 2025 [6] Economic Context - The FTSE China A50 index saw a rapid increase [6] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed hope for the Senate to confirm the current White House economic advisor to fill a temporary vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board before the next meeting in September, which could set the stage for significant interest rate cuts [8] - Mnuchin indicated that the recent downward revisions of employment data and favorable inflation data could lead to discussions of a 50 basis point rate cut in September [9]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the S&P 500 index setting a closing record for the second consecutive trading day, closing at 6466.58 points, up 0.32% [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 463.66 points, or 1.04%, closing at 44922.27 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 31.24 points, or 0.14%, closing at 21713.14 points [1] - European indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.51%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, and France's CAC40 up 0.66% [1][2] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for September fell by $0.52 to $62.65 per barrel, a decrease of 0.82%, while Brent crude for October dropped by $0.49 to $65.63 per barrel, down 0.74% [2] - Spot gold increased by 0.23%, reaching $3355.91 [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin rose nearly 1.9% to $122,387.5, while Ethereum increased by 2.9% to $4,724.39 [4] Macroeconomic Developments - Trump's potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chair have expanded to 11, including notable Wall Street strategists, indicating a lengthy selection process [5] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed the need for more evidence of inflation improvement before making policy changes, suggesting that all meetings this fall could be opportunities for policy adjustments [6] Corporate News - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Nvidia by 154.37% and exited positions in Alibaba and other Chinese stocks [8] - Apple plans to enter the AI robotics, home security, and smart display markets, with a desktop robot as a core part of its strategy [9] - Oracle is laying off employees in its cloud infrastructure division to manage costs amid rising AI expenditures [10] - Tesla is hiring for its autonomous driving department, indicating potential expansion into the New York ride-hailing market [11] - Amazon aims to expand its same-day delivery service for fresh groceries to over 3,300 cities by the end of the year, impacting competitors like Kroger and Walmart [12] Analyst Ratings - Standard Chartered Bank raised its year-end price target for Ethereum from $4,000 to $7,500, citing improved industry participation and increased holdings [13] - The bank anticipates the stablecoin market will grow approximately eightfold by the end of 2028, significantly impacting Ethereum network fees [14]

7月美国CPI同比上涨2.7%，大体符合预期，缓解了关税上调背景下通胀失控的担忧。然而，核心CPI同 比增速已达到3.1%，且剔除住房、能源和食品的"超级核心CPI"环比上涨0.5%，创近18个月来次高水 平。Inflation Insights创始人Omair Sharif指出，核心商品价格涨幅比6月更广泛，近期关税的传导效应已 在多数品类中显现。 根据美联储6月发布的经济预测摘要，核心PCE通胀预计今年末将为3.1%。目前核心CPI已触及该水平， 而关税影响仍在持续渗透。这可能令官员在就业放缓的同时，对更大幅度降息保持谨慎。7月美国新增 非农就业仅7.3万，且5月和6月的就业增幅被大幅下修至1.9万和1.4万，但失业率仍维持在4.2%。 美联储官员近期表态显示，虽然理事鲍曼和沃勒倾向于降息25个基点，委员会大多数成员在通胀连续53 个月高于2%目标的背景下仍偏向鹰派。里士满联储主席巴尔金本周表示，将根据经济形势的进一步明 朗来调整政策立场，但未释放转向鸽派的明确信号。 StoneX高级顾问Jon Hilsenrath指出，即便7月通胀数据给予美联储一定降息空间，也不意味着10月会再 次降息。目前期货市场赋 ...

Market Performance - US stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs during the session [1] - As of the report, the Dow Jones increased by 0.59%, S&P 500 by 0.15%, and Nasdaq by 0.13% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 2% [3] Individual Stock Movements - Bilibili's stock rose over 6%, while NetEase, Alibaba, and Li Auto each increased by over 3% [5] - Tencent Holdings' ADR saw a nearly 7% increase, reaching a market capitalization exceeding $700 billion [5] Tencent's Financial Performance - Tencent reported total revenue of 364.53 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with an operating profit of 117.67 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103.45 billion RMB [7] - For Q2 2025, Tencent's total revenue was 184.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, with operating profit increasing by 18% to 69.2 billion RMB [7] - Gross margin reached 57%, up by 4 percentage points year-on-year [7] Tencent's Business Segments - All three main business segments of Tencent reported revenue growth: - Value-added services revenue was 91.4 billion RMB, up 16% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue was 35.8 billion RMB, up 20% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 55.5 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year [8] - Tencent emphasized the deep integration of AI into its gaming, advertising, and social ecosystems, with ongoing investments in AI yielding benefits [8]

北京时间8月13日晚间，美股三大指数集体高开，纳指、标普500指数盘中续创新高。随后，主要指数涨幅有所收敛。截至发稿，道琼斯指数涨0.59%，标 普500指数涨0.15%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.13%。 中概股集体大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨逾2%。 个股方面，哔哩哔哩涨超6%，网易、阿里巴巴、理想汽车均涨超3%。腾讯控股ADR涨幅扩大至近7%，创逾四年新高，使腾讯总市值超7000亿美元。 消息面上，8月13日盘后，腾讯控股发布2025年中期及第二季度业绩报告。财报显示，截至2025年6月30日的六个月，公司实现总营收3645.26亿元人民 币；经营盈利为1176.7亿元，期内盈利录得1057.69亿元，归母净利润为1034.49亿元。 | ( | | 富时中国A50期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | CN.SG | | | | | | 14178 | | 昨结 14151 | | | 开营 | 14147 | | +27 | +0.19% | 总手 | 2.64万 | | 现手 | 1 | | 最高价 | 14187 ...

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is currently experiencing "quasi-stagflation," characterized by economic weakness and commodity inflation coexisting[1] - Manufacturing and real estate sectors have shown varying degrees of weakness, with the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48%, the lowest this year[6] - The primary drivers of U.S. economic growth are showing marginal weakness, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, largely due to a contraction in imports[6] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Current inflation may not be sufficient to prevent the restart of interest rate cuts, as resilient core service inflation has not increased significantly[10] - The July CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating that overall inflation is not as strong as anticipated[11] - Market expectations currently include three rate cuts, but this may be adjusted based on the pace of unemployment rate increases[22] Group 3: Unemployment Trends - The speed of the increase in the unemployment rate may be a key factor in determining the extent of interest rate cuts, with projections suggesting it may rise to 4.4%-4.5% by year-end[17] - The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4.0%-4.2% this year, indicating a relatively stable labor market[21] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Potential risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a more significant-than-expected weakening of the U.S. labor market[26] - The dollar index may have further downside potential, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to perform better than long-term bonds[23]