智通财经1月13日电，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5.0%，维持利率不变的概率为95.0%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 26.0%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 美联储威廉姆斯暗示短期内没有降息的理由 1月13日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0103，上调5点。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% |纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周一预计2026年美国经济将保持健康，并暗示短期内没有降息的理由。威廉姆斯表示，FOMC已将货币政策从温和限制性的立场进 一步推向接近中性的水平，"当前的货币政策已具备良好条件，有助于支持劳动力市场的稳定，并推动通胀回归2%的目标。"威廉姆斯表示，美联储在将通 胀拉回2%目标的同时，"避免给就业市场带来不必要的风险"至关重要。他补充称："近几个月，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险有所上升，而通 胀的上行风险则有所减弱。"威廉姆斯预计今年GDP增速在2.5%至2.75%之间，失业率今年趋于稳定，并在随后几年回落。在通胀方面，他预计价格压力将 在今年上半年见顶于2.75%至3%之间，全年平均回落至2.5%，并在2027年 ...

开源证券：AI泡沫仍尚早 但累计涨幅可能需要消化 凤凰网财经讯 1月13日，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指涨0.11%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指涨0.07%。 以GEO、制药为首等AI应用方向领涨市场。 机构观点 东吴证券：市场对美联储降息预期推迟，港股反弹更要看分子端 泡沫的呈现往往取决于"容器大小"，有一个很有意思的比喻是"往杯子里倒酒"与"往杠里倒酒"泡沫的情 况是不一样的，在中美流动性宽松+A股估值牛市+政策大力支持发展科技（产业高景气）的基础上（往 缸里到酒），认为言AI泡沫仍尚早，只是仓位和累计涨幅的压力随时可能需要一定的消化。强者恒强 的核心因素仍在于ΔG，如果ΔG开始出现明显的疲软则可能处于平顶消化估值+成长回归价值的过程。 当前并未见到ΔG的显著拐点，那么AI硬件在现阶段更有可能跟随估值牛的大环境延续。 美国2025年12月失业率超预期回落，市场预计首次降息将推迟至6月。在年度展望中对美联储降息次数 预期比市场更为谨慎，认为全年1-2次，当前仍维持此判断。从经济基本面看，今年留给美联储降息的 窗口不多，宽财政对经济的脉冲效应还在路上。一季度美联储不降息的话，港股反弹节奏就更要看分子 端情况。 ...

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with Wind All A rising by 1.72% and a trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, marking a peak for daily trading volume in October 2024 [3][8] - The CSI 1000 index rose by 2.8%, the CSI 500 index by 2.39%, the CSI 300 index by 0.65%, and the SSE 50 index by 0.3% [3][8] - The rise in indices is primarily driven by global technological advancements, highlighted by the CES event from January 6 to 9, where Nvidia announced its new Rubin architecture, expected to significantly enhance chip efficiency and reduce costs [3][8] - The market is also influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, leading to noticeable returns in the equity market [3][8] - Geopolitical tensions have increased demand for rare metals, which are strategically significant for high-tech manufacturing and military industries, leading to a short-term price surge [3][9] - Historical trends suggest that after geopolitical clarity, related metals may see inventory releases and price corrections, indicating potential high volatility in the short term [3][9] - Caution is advised in trading at high index levels, with a recommendation to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3][9] Bond Market - On Monday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up by 0.3%, the 10-year contract up by 0.07%, the 5-year contract up by 0.05%, and the 2-year contract stable [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 861 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a bid rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate [10] - The market saw a net injection of 361 billion yuan from the 500 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos maturing [10] - The funding environment remains reasonably ample, supporting the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [10] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward rate breakthroughs requiring significant inflation increases and downward movements needing guidance from interest rate cuts [10] Precious Metals - Overnight, gold and silver showed strong performance, reaching new historical highs, while platinum and palladium experienced fluctuations [5][10] - Recent legal challenges regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, impacting market sentiment [5][10] - Geopolitical issues, particularly conflicts involving the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as tensions in Greenland and Iran, have heightened investor anxiety regarding geopolitical conflicts, sustaining gold's appeal [5][10] - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend, with platinum and palladium likely to see further gains, while silver presents higher short-term risks [5][10]

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant rebound with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the ChiNext index recovering after a drop of more than 1% earlier [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.6 trillion yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day above 3 trillion yuan, with an increase of 478.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, setting a new historical record for trading volume [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market rose, with 201 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Group 2 - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the AI bubble is still premature, but the accumulated gains may need to be digested; the core factor for strong performance remains ΔG, and a significant softening of ΔG could lead to a valuation and growth adjustment [2] - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the aluminum sector, predicting that the price of aluminum will reach an average of 23,000 yuan per ton by 2026, supported by sustained demand from the power grid and automotive sectors, despite new production capacity in Indonesia [3] - Dongwu Securities notes that the market's expectations for a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts could impact the rebound of Hong Kong stocks, emphasizing the need for positive corporate fundamentals [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December, with expectations of a slight increase in inflation, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to data collection disruptions from a government shutdown [2][3] - Analysts predict a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall inflation for December, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.26% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, both higher than November's actual readings [3][4] - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue pushing up prices, particularly in food, clothing, and automotive sectors, despite some tariffs being lifted at the end of last year [3][4] Group 2 - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meetings dropping significantly, particularly from 79% to 40% for the April meeting [2][5] - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slower job growth rate, which has led to a more stable labor market, but concerns about the job market have increased among households, raising short-term inflation expectations [5][6] - The potential political interference from the Trump administration regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may deter the Fed from cutting rates, as officials aim to avoid perceptions of yielding to political pressure [6]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 特朗普突然对伊朗"动手"。 当地时间1月12日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，即日起，任何与伊朗伊斯兰共和国 开展商业往来的国家，在与美国进行的任何商业活动中都将被征收25%的关税。特朗普强调，该决定"最 终且不可更改"。受此影响，国际油价短线拉升，布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货均涨超1%。 美股市场方面，三大指数低开高走，标普500指数、道指再度创下历史新高，美股大型科技股多数走强， 热门中概股大幅跑赢美股大盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨超4%，阿里巴巴涨超10%，创2025年8月29 日以来最大升幅。 特朗普宣布：25%关税 1月13日，据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普12日下午在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国 家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将面临25%的关税。该命令即日起生效。 特朗普指出，这项针对伊朗贸易伙伴进口商品的新关税政策即刻生效。 他写道："此命令为最终决定，且具有终局效力。感谢各位对此事的关注！" 目前，关于这项关税政策的更多细节尚未明确。 另据央视新闻，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特12 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rebound with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the ChiNext index recovering after a drop of more than 1% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.6 trillion yuan, marking the second consecutive day above 3 trillion yuan, an increase of 478.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, setting a new historical record for trading volume in 2024 [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market rose, with 201 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] AI Sector Analysis - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the AI bubble is still considered premature, but the accumulated gains may require digestion [2] - The firm suggests that the strength of the sector is dependent on ΔG, and if ΔG shows signs of weakness, it may lead to a valuation correction and a return to value growth [2] Aluminum Sector Outlook - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the aluminum sector, predicting a rise in demand driven by photovoltaic aluminum, electric grid, and automotive sectors, with a forecasted aluminum price of 23,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [3] - The firm notes that despite new production capacity in Indonesia, the industry's supply growth is expected to slow down, indicating a positive outlook for profitability and valuation in the aluminum sector [3] Market Sentiment on Federal Reserve - Dongwu Securities indicates that the market's expectations for a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts could impact the rebound of Hong Kong stocks, which will depend more on fundamental factors [4] - The firm anticipates that the Fed may only cut rates 1-2 times this year, and if no cuts occur in the first quarter, the market will need more positive news regarding corporate fundamentals [4]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The December inflation rate is expected to rise, influenced by tariffs and previous government shutdowns affecting data collection, with a projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.26% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, both higher than November's actual readings [2] - Analysts believe that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on prices, particularly in food, clothing, and automotive sectors, despite some tariffs being lifted at the end of last year [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January nearly zero and a significant drop in April's cut probability from 79% to 40% [1] - The labor market shows signs of stabilization, as indicated by the December non-farm payroll report, which may influence the Fed's decision to maintain current interest rates [4] - Concerns about inflation and employment are rising among U.S. households, with short-term inflation expectations increasing from 3.2% to 3.4% for one year [5] Group 3: Economic Data Quality Issues - The government shutdown has distorted data collection, leading to potential underestimation of price data, particularly in retail during the holiday season [3] - The assumption that rental prices remained unchanged during the shutdown has artificially suppressed rent data, which may lead to higher inflation readings in the coming months [3] - Analysts are navigating through distorted data, complicating the understanding of true inflation trends, with expectations that inflation will continue to rise slightly into early 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that statistical errors in measuring U.S. inflation may lead to a compensatory increase in CPI data in late 2025 and early 2026, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global liquidity [2][4][7]. Group 1: Inflation Analysis - The recent drop in U.S. CPI from 3% to 2.7% and core CPI from 3% to 2.6% is attributed to statistical method flaws rather than a genuine change in inflation trends [5][7]. - The U.S. inflation rebound risk is not resolved; the low CPI readings in November are significantly underestimated due to the "government shutdown" affecting data collection [7][8]. - The article identifies three main statistical underestimation effects: 1. The low estimation effect from the rental sample rotation, which could lead to a doubling of rental inflation by April 2026, compensating for previous underestimations [8][10]. 2. The underestimation from alternating monthly sample rotations, which may result in a compensatory increase in December 2025 inflation [10][12]. 3. The lagging statistical timing effect due to data collection during the Thanksgiving season, which could lead to overestimations in January 2026 [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation will be in an upward cycle in the first half of 2026, with CPI potentially rising due to compensatory effects [13][16]. - It anticipates a temporary improvement in U.S. economic growth in early 2026, driven by government spending resuming after the shutdown and seasonal adjustments in economic data [22][24]. - The potential for a "temporary overheating" state in the economy is noted, with inflation and growth possibly rising simultaneously [24][29]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing commodity allocations to hedge against inflation risks and suggests buying on dips for gold, U.S. Treasuries, and Chinese stocks if there are market corrections [2][30][31]. - It emphasizes that while inflation may rise in the short term, the long-term outlook suggests a return to lower inflation rates, which could lead to a faster pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [30][31].

来源：滚动播报 贝莱德高级董事总经理里克·里德：美联储必须将利率降至3%。 ...