十五五规划
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2026年GDP增速目标有必要仍定为5%左右|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-11-30 10:31
Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].
河南“十五五”规划《建议》是如何出炉的?
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-11-30 06:54
Core Points - The Henan Provincial Committee held a press conference to interpret the spirit of the 11th Plenary Session of the 11th Provincial Committee and the "Suggestions" for the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - The "Suggestions" are considered a significant outcome of the plenary session, emphasizing the importance of scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making throughout the drafting process [3][4] - The drafting process involved extensive research and public consultation, gathering over 10,551 suggestions from various stakeholders [4][5] Summary by Sections Overall Achievements and Goals - The "Suggestions" outline the major achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan and analyze the challenges for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing quality improvement and reasonable growth [7][8] - The document sets a goal for Henan to achieve a per capita GDP close to or reaching that of moderately developed countries by 2035, aligning with national modernization efforts [8] Key Focus Areas - The drafting process focused on four main aspects: aligning with national strategies, integrating local capabilities, promoting high-quality development, and strategically planning for key areas [6][7] - The "Suggestions" include 13 sections and 60 articles, addressing critical issues such as modern industrial systems, innovation, rural revitalization, and social governance [7][8] Implementation and Governance - The final section emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership, enhancing democratic governance, and improving the business environment to ensure effective implementation of the plan [8]
“十五五”加速科技自立自强!李迅雷:这六大“未来产业”发展机会值得期待
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-30 06:04
专题:2025分析师大会:资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 11月28日,2025分析师大会举行,专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂,共寻穿越周期的投资真谛。中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷出席 并发表演讲。 李迅雷表示,"十五五"规划的第一大亮点也是最大亮点要加速科技的自立自强,我这边列举了未来产业的空间,未来制造、未来信息、未来材料、未来能 源、未来空间、未来健康对应这些行业的企业发展机会还是值得期待的。 责任编辑:张恒星 ...
CMF年度报告:建议2026年设定跨周期区间组合的经济社会发展目标
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-11-30 02:46
Core Insights - The report from the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) indicates that by 2025, China's economy is expected to strive for breakthroughs and achieve its development goals, while 2026 will present new opportunities despite ongoing challenges [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period was crucial for China's transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, maintaining economic stability amid global trade tensions and domestic pressures [2] - In 2025, China's economy is projected to grow at around 5%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, despite facing significant external uncertainties [2][4] - The year 2026 will mark the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to open new growth spaces and provide substantial support for reversing short-term economic downturns [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target for 2026, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - It emphasizes the need for effective responses to the challenges posed by global economic slowdowns, trade tensions, and domestic structural transformations [3][4]
曲青山当选中国中共党史学会第九届理事会会长
Bei Jing Ri Bao Ke Hu Duan· 2025-11-30 02:45
Core Points - The Ninth National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party History Society was held in Beijing, focusing on summarizing the work of the previous council and electing a new leadership team [3][5] - The new leadership aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress and enhance the quality of the society's work [5][6] Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guiding principle [5][6] - The society has made significant achievements in theoretical education, deepening party history research, and internal development since the establishment of the eighth council in 2019 [5] - The new council will align its work with the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on historical opportunities and challenges [5][6] Group 2 - The new president, Qu Qingshan, highlighted the need for unity around the central leadership and the importance of political construction and party building [6] - The society will conduct a report meeting on the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, marking its first academic activity after the leadership change [6][8] - The meeting was attended by nearly a hundred representatives from various institutions, indicating broad participation in party history and literature work [8]
泸州乐山南充雅安眉山资阳传达学习省委十二届八次全会精神 结合实际科学谋划“十五五”发展
Si Chuan Ri Bao· 2025-11-30 02:42
11月28日,泸州、乐山、南充、雅安、眉山、资阳分别召开会议,传达学习省委十二届八次全会精 神,研究贯彻落实意见。各地表示,本次全会是系统谋划我省"十五五"发展的关键时期召开的一次重要 会议,全会通过的《建议》为全省上下接续推进现代化四川建设提供了方向指引和行动指南,要切实把 思想和行动统一到全会精神上来,结合实际科学谋划"十五五"发展。 雅安市委常委会召开(扩大)会议,专题传达学习省委十二届八次全会精神,研究贯彻落实意见。 会议指出,要科学谋划系统布局,全力以赴谋划雅安"十五五"规划各项工作。进一步明晰发展定位和重 点路径,结合实际,持续开展研究论证,找准支撑点和着力点,以科学的发展定位统揽"十五五"时期经 济社会发展。进一步构建支撑指标体系,既跳起摸高,又实事求是,科学合理设置"十五五"经济社会发 展的规划指标,引领雅安在更高起点上实现高质量发展。进一步细化重点工作举措,立足国家战略导向 和全省发展布局,着力夯实产业支撑,持续提升开放能级,加快生态优势转化,切实增进民生福祉,守 牢安全稳定底线。进一步抓实规划编制系列工作,坚持全市一盘棋,广泛凝聚共识,完善规划体系,夯 实项目支撑,把准时间节点,推动全市顶 ...
吴桂英在芙蓉区宣讲党的二十届四中全会精神并开展调研
Chang Sha Wan Bao· 2025-11-30 02:30
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the requirements of the 12th Provincial Committee's Ninth Plenary Session, focusing on economic and social development in Changsha, particularly in the Furong District [1][4]. Group 1: Economic and Social Development - The Secretary of the Provincial Committee, Wu Guiying, highlighted the need to transform the learning outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session into clear strategies and measures for the next five years [4]. - Wu Guiying acknowledged the achievements in various sectors within Furong District over the past year and stressed the importance of identifying unique positions within the broader provincial and municipal development landscape [4]. - The focus is on enhancing public services, improving living standards, and ensuring urban safety and management levels to achieve high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 2: Goals and Strategies - The article outlines the need for Furong District to set clear targets, overcome challenges, and accelerate project construction while addressing public welfare and safety [4][5]. - Emphasis is placed on pollution prevention through a combination of human, technical, and joint defenses to continuously improve ecological quality [4]. - The Deputy Mayor, Chen Bozhang, pointed out the importance of monitoring economic operations and enhancing industrial development capabilities to stimulate market vitality and strengthen market entity cultivation [5][6]. Group 3: Urban Renewal and Management - Wu Guiying conducted a survey on urban renewal, stressing the need for scientific spatial planning and high-quality urban updates [9]. - The article mentions the importance of optimizing construction organization and improving on-site management to ensure safety [9].
凝聚青春力量 不负时代使命 在砥砺奋进“十五五”中展现八桂青年实干担当
Zhong Guo Qing Nian Bao· 2025-11-30 00:22
Core Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session outlines a clear path for advancing Chinese-style modernization during the critical period of achieving the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals, emphasizing the importance of youth engagement in this process [1] Group 1: Political Guidance and Ideological Foundation - The session emphasizes the necessity of adhering to the "six persistences" for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with the foremost being the comprehensive leadership of the Party [2] - The Guangxi Youth League focuses on political education for youth, enhancing their ideological foundation through various theoretical and practical activities [2][3] Group 2: High-Quality Development and Innovation - The session stresses high-quality development as a primary goal, with the Guangxi Youth League mobilizing youth to contribute to this objective through practical and innovative efforts [4] - Initiatives like the "Artificial Intelligence + Youth Development" action plan aim to cultivate youth skills in AI, fostering new productive forces [4] Group 3: Youth Development and Support - The session highlights the principle of prioritizing people's well-being, with the Guangxi Youth League committed to addressing youth needs and promoting their growth and success [7] - Programs aimed at enhancing youth employment and entrepreneurship are being organized, including job fairs and support services for young people [7][8] Group 4: Organizational Strengthening and Reform - The session calls for strict governance within the Party, with the Guangxi Youth League implementing reforms to strengthen its organizational structure and effectiveness [9] - Continuous reform efforts are being made to enhance grassroots organizational capabilities and integrate youth development with broader political education [10]
中国共产党江苏省第十四届委员会第十次全体会议决议(2025年11月29日中国共产党江苏省第十四届委员会第十次全体会议通过)
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-11-29 22:43
全会由省委常委会主持。省委书记信长星作了讲话。 全会听取和讨论了信长星受省委常委会委托所作的工作报告,审议通过了《中共江苏省委关于制定 江苏省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。信长星就《建议(讨论稿)》向全会作了说 明。 中国共产党江苏省第十四届委员会第十次全体会议,于2025年11月28日至29日在南京举行。 出席会议的省委委员82名,候补委员4名。省纪委委员和有关方面负责同志列席会议。部分来自基 层一线的党的二十大代表和省第十四次党代会代表,以及部分专家学者列席会议。 全会提出了"十五五"时期江苏经济社会发展的主要目标:在高质量发展上继续走在前列,在推动科 技创新和产业创新融合上打头阵,在推进深层次改革和高水平开放上勇争先,在落实国家重大发展战略 上走在前,在促进全体人民共同富裕上作示范,在精神文明建设上展现新气象,在美丽江苏建设上取得 新的重大进展,在推进省域治理体系和治理能力现代化上实现新提升。在此基础上再奋斗五年,到二〇 三五年,"强富美高"新江苏现代化建设取得新的重大进展,更好展现基本实现社会主义现代化的现实模 样。 全会对"十五五"时期江苏经济社会发展的重点任务作出部署。建设现代化产业 ...
经济前瞻论坛2025丨张军扩:应深刻认识和把握“十五五”的三项重要战略方针
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-29 13:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a deep understanding of three strategic guidelines during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on economic construction, high-quality development, and expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the importance of economic construction as the central task, indicating that economic work remains the focus of the entire party and nation [3] - The plan aims for a per capita GDP of over $20,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of approximately 4.17% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods [4] Group 2 - The plan stresses the importance of reform and innovation as fundamental drivers, aiming for breakthroughs in comprehensive reforms and creating a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment [4][6] - The transition from follower innovation to frontier innovation is deemed essential, focusing on solving technological bottlenecks and enhancing basic research capabilities [6] - Policies to boost consumption and effective investment are outlined, emphasizing counter-cyclical measures, improving social security for low-income groups, and optimizing regulatory policies [7] Group 3 - The plan identifies the need to balance interests among various stakeholders to fully unleash investment potential, particularly in real estate and private investment [7] - The unique advantages of China's economic development are highlighted, suggesting that adherence to central policies will lead to significant achievements in high-quality development [8]