12月2日，金价高位回落，盘中跌至4215美元后震荡回升。截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4240 美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.48%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌1.24%，有色金属ETF基金 (516650)跌1.39%。 宝城期货分析认为，11月下旬以来金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位 回落。当前市场预期12月美联储降息概率已接近90%，美元指数昨夜一度回落至99关口。短期金价走势 相较于白银明显疲软，结合有色普涨，我们认为这很大程度上反映了市场风险偏好回暖，不利于金价上 行。技术上，关注沪金11月中旬高位压力。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，特朗普对于任命下一任美联储主席的看法，已成为当前黄金市场的主导影响因素之一。特朗 普已正式表示，将在近期任命一位倾向于维持较低利率的人选。这一表态对黄金极为有利，因为黄金通 常在低利率环境下表现更佳，获利前景更为明朗。此消息也使得市场对其前经济顾问凯文·哈西特的猜 测达到顶峰。根据CME FedWatch工具显示，目前市场已计入极高的美联储12月降息概率，达到88%。 这对于黄金的进一步上涨至关重 ...

周二（12月2日）亚欧时段，现货黄金自隔夜回吐空间内维持震荡，目前暂交投于4213美元附近。周一（12月1日）现货黄金价格触及六周高点，每盎司一度 攀升至4264美元，美联储降息预期的持续发酵、美元的疲软走势，以及美国制造业数据的低迷表现，推动贵金属价格进入一个强劲的横盘整理至上涨趋势。 作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金和白银在不确定性加剧的环境中，再次展现出其独特的魅力。 基本面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得阳线收盘扩大此前反弹空间，盘中曾测试4265一线后回吐部分涨幅，至尾盘时段仍守住大部分涨幅报收暗示强劲，短期或仍面临更 多反弹空间有望逐渐挑战4300关口上下。1--4小时级别，短线走势自4000大关附近企稳上涨后本周盘中迎来收敛区间上破后扩大涨幅，隔夜盘中一度冲破三 周高点至4265一线后盘踞，至当前欧盘时段仍守住4200关口显示强势日内交易者或留意下方4200--4210区间测试支撑或尝试多单，上方压力关注4250/4280附 近 操作思路： 多单： 4200--4210轻仓多，止损4198，目标4250/4280附近 空单： 美元指数的走软成为黄金上涨的另一大助力。周一美元一度跌至两周低点99.01，尾盘 ...

由于供应紧张、白银ETF需求强劲带动、美联储降息预期升温等多重因素带动下，白银近期呈现出超越 黄金涨幅的强势格局。 昨夜今晨，现货白银持续突破历史新高，首次站上58美元/盎司，最高触及58.84美元/盎司，沪银夜盘也 收涨超5%。 校 对：张晓燕 值班主任：费 煜 值班编审：岳 威 南华期货表示：从中长期维度看，央行购金以及投资需求增长前景（货币宽松前景、阶段性避险交易， 以及对AI股防御式配置需求）仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬。短期看，低库存现实，以及需求短 期释放可能性增加价格向上弹性，周内白银已经续刷新高，伦敦银在突破55美元/盎司关口后，目标位 已进一步上抬至65美元/盎司，第一阻力60美元/盎司整数关口；伦敦现货黄金阻力4250美元/盎司，强阻 力4400美元/盎司，支撑4000美元/盎司。 来 源：钱江晚报 责任编辑：王 淼 不过，12月2日早盘，现货白银突发跳水，截至发稿时跌超2%，交投于56.777美元/盎司附近。至此，现 货白银年内涨幅在昨天突破100%后，稍有回撤，显著高于现货黄金的60%涨幅。 在现货白银下挫的同时，伦敦现货黄金也震荡走低，截至发稿时，现货黄金下跌0.5%，交投于421 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices remain stable overall, with some stores showing a decline. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price dropped by 8 CNY per gram, now priced at 1328 CNY per gram, which is among the highest prices in the market [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has narrowed to 96 CNY per gram, indicating a more uniform pricing structure across different brands [1] - Detailed quotes from various gold stores show that the highest price is 1328 CNY per gram from multiple brands, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices are also showing a downward trend, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price decreasing by 5 CNY per gram to 669 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has decreased by 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands. For example, the recycling price for gold is 945.80 CNY per gram [2] - Other notable recycling prices include 921.80 CNY per gram from China Gold and 911.10 CNY per gram from Chow Sang Sang [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - International spot gold reached a six-week high at 4264.28 USD per ounce but fell to 4230.33 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 4225.18 USD per ounce, showing a minor decline of 0.12% [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have supported gold prices [4] - The market anticipates an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to keep gold prices in a strong consolidation to upward trend in the long term [4]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

Market Strategy - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the market outlook for December, anticipating a potential rebound due to improving economic fundamentals and macro liquidity conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of adjusting portfolios based on style and trading factors, suggesting a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks while being prepared for potential volatility [3][7] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, the report identifies three main investment themes: capitalizing on the interest rate cut cycle, structural upgrades, and the competitive advantages of leading companies amid rising costs and slowing domestic sales [5][7] - The report notes that while the overall market for white goods is under pressure, leading brands are gaining market share due to improved operational efficiency and better end-market adaptability [5][7] Theme Strategy - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace by the National Space Administration is highlighted as a significant development, expected to foster high-quality growth in the industry [6][7] - The report outlines the acceleration of collaborative development between rockets and satellites, with advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased satellite production capabilities [6][7]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices continued their upward trend, reaching six-week and historical highs respectively, influenced by President Trump's announcement regarding the next Federal Reserve chair [1][3] - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations rising to 87% for the upcoming meeting [3] - Silver's demand is significantly driven by industrial uses, particularly in solar panels, contributing to its price surge [3][5] Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices rose by 1.2% to $4262 per ounce, marking a 60.6% increase year-to-date [3] - Silver prices increased by 2.5%, reaching a new high of $57.85 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 86.5% [3][4] - Platinum prices surged by 3.7% to $1727 per ounce, achieving a six-week high, with a year-to-date increase of 79.6% [4][5] Group 2: Market Influences - The decline of the US dollar, attributed to expectations of a new Federal Reserve chair, has led to increased prices for gold and silver when priced in other currencies [6] - Factors driving the strong performance of silver and platinum include anticipated interest rate cuts, concerns over currency devaluation, fiscal debt anxiety, and high inflation impacting living costs [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to slightly above 74, the lowest level in 18 months, indicating a stronger performance of silver relative to gold [7] - The market consensus suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rates may reach 2.99% by the end of 2026, which is nearly half a percentage point lower than the latest projections [3]

本周，市场还将迎来更多关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业报告和周五的9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，后者是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。这些数 据如果继续显示疲软，将进一步巩固降息预期，推动金价走高。美联储主席鲍威尔将于当地时间周一晚些时候（北京时间周二上午9:00）发表讲话，这被视 为提供政策线索的重要时刻。如果鲍威尔释放更多鸽派信号，金市将迎来新一轮买盘涌入。反之，如果出现"鹰派降息"的迹象，即降息伴随短期内不再降息 的暗示，金价可能短期承压，但长期趋势仍向上。全球债市波动与美联储继任者谜局 多头仍有所顾忌，因为周一美国国债收益率大幅上扬，10年期国债收益率涨至4.096%，创下自7月中旬以来的最大单日涨幅；30年期收益率升至4.744%，两 年期收益率也攀升至3.534%，这意味着持有黄金的机会成本增加。 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。 白银图表： 基本面： 周二（12月02日）白银亚盘大幅冲高回落，等待支撑位多单布局。白银暴涨创纪录，年内涨幅超100%如果说黄金的上涨是稳健的，那么白银的表现则可以 用"爆炸性"来形容。周一，白银价格大涨3.8%，收报每盎司58.57美元，盘中更是触及58. ...

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn on December 1, with Bitcoin's price dropping below the critical level of $87,000, marking a decline of 8% to $83,786, the lowest since April 2025 [1] - On December 2, Bitcoin remained weak at $86,378, down 5%, while Ethereum fell below $2,800, with a daily drop of 6.36%. Other cryptocurrencies like XRP, BNB, and Solana also saw declines exceeding 6% [1] - Over 270,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $985 million, indicating widespread panic in the market [1] Market Trends - The sell-off in the virtual asset market has been ongoing for several weeks, with Bitcoin's price falling over 30% since reaching a historical high of $126,250 in early October, erasing all gains since 2025 [2] - The decline was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's cooling expectations for interest rate cuts, leading investors to withdraw from high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies [2] Institutional Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest report suggests that if the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance in December, the tightening of dollar liquidity will suppress the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] - CoinShares' research indicates that since September, large holders have sold over $20 billion in crypto assets, with the "four-year cycle theory" becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy for whales reducing their positions [3] Future Outlook - Hotcoin Research posits that the market structure will evolve by 2024-2025, with increased institutional participation leading to price movements driven more by fundamentals and data, reducing the impact of short-term sentiment [3] - Conversely, analyst Damian Chmiel warns that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger further sell-offs, with a potential target price near $74,000, indicating about 30% downside risk from current levels [3]

从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 板块共振上行 基差持续收敛 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日黑色系共振上行，碳元素超跌反弹，成材价格持续走强提振产业链估值水平。 近期铁矿石盘面价格相对强势，港口现货价格基本持平，基差继续收缩，主要由盘面向现货回 归。现货能维持高位主要原因是成材库存持续去化，市场对淡季负反馈预期减弱，国内铁水季 节性下滑但下降斜率尚未超预期，另一方面现货贸易限制对中低品价格形成支撑，普氏价格在 淡季不降反升，对盘面价格形成带动。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比升，其中澳洲小幅回升，巴西发运回升显著。 ...