Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Review (5.19 - 5.25)**: In the spot market, pig prices were weak. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 43 yuan/kg (last week: 44.1 yuan/kg), and the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg (last week: 14.85 yuan/kg). The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). On the supply side, the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased, and group farms also increased their sales. On the demand side, recent demand was weak, and slaughter volume was slightly lower than expected, but the demand for secondary fattening increased in the second half of the week. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 126.5KG (last week: 126.42KG), a week-on-week increase of 0.06%. In the futures market, pig futures prices were also weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,475 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,515 yuan/ton (last week: 13,660 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 785 yuan/ton (last week: 1,190 yuan/ton) [1][2]. - **Market Outlook (5.26 - 6.1)**: In the spot market, pig prices will fluctuate weakly. During the off - season, the adjustment of group farm sales has a significant impact on prices. In early May, group farms reduced sales to support prices, but in the middle and late May, downstream consumption was weak, slaughter volume remained low, and enterprises increased sales, causing prices to drop rapidly. There is still room for inventory accumulation, but the incremental driving force for inventory accumulation is limited. The speculative demand in May still has support, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. In the futures market, the price of the LH2509 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton on May 23. There are signs of passive pig retention, and the central price of the futures market will continue to decline. If secondary fattening fails to form a concentrated entry situation, the inventory reduction stage may be long, and the price difference structure will switch to a reverse spread pattern. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The prices of piglets, live pigs, and binary sows were provided, along with changes in supply and demand. The average slaughter weight increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - **Futures Market**: The price range, closing price, and basis of the LH2509 contract were given, showing a weak trend [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Spot Market**: The impact of group farm sales adjustment on prices, supply and demand conditions, and inventory accumulation were analyzed, indicating a weak price trend [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2509 contract, the situation of passive pig retention, the possible price difference structure change, and the short - term support and pressure levels were discussed [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Month - to - Month Difference**: The basis was 785 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 month - to - month difference was - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight was 126.5KG. In March, pork production was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%. In April, pork imports were 80,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of the feed and breeding industry are complex, with different trends and price fluctuations in various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. In the short - term, most products face certain downward pressure, while in the long - term, the situation varies by product. [1][2][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Product Live Pigs - On May 16, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while that in Guangdong remained stable. The supply is expected to increase in the later period as some farmers may accelerate the slaughter rhythm, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened. The demand is limited due to the hot weather and high pork prices. In the long - run, the supply will increase from May - September 2024, and the second - quarter slaughter pressure is still large. The strategy is to be bearish on rallies, with the 07 contract having a pressure range of 13800 - 14000 and a support range of 13200 - 13300; the 09 contract having a pressure range of 14300 - 14500 and a support range of 13600 - 13800. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract. [1] Eggs - On May 16, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support the egg price, but the large new production in May and the non - increasing old chicken culling pressure the price. In the long - run, the supply from June - August 2025 is expected to increase due to high replenishment from February - April 2025. The 06 contract is slightly at a premium, and the strategy is to wait for a rebound to short lightly. The 08 and 09 contracts are bearish in the big picture. [2] Oils - On May 15, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures declined. The Malaysian palm oil has a large inventory build - up pressure due to a large production increase and weak exports in May. The domestic palm oil is expected to have a supply increase from May - June. The US soybean oil is affected by the uncertainty of the biofuel policy and international crude oil price, and the domestic soybean oil is expected to have inventory build - up from May - July. The Canadian rapeseed supply is tightening, but the domestic rapeseed oil has a high inventory. In the short - term, the domestic oils are in a downward trend but limited by positive factors; in the long - term, they may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to be cautious when shorting the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and to exit the spread - widening strategy for the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil. [2][4][5] Soybean Meal - On May 15, the US soybean price was affected by the decline of US soybean oil. In the short - term, the US soybean has limited upside due to smooth sowing progress and South American bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to decline with the increase of supply. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price may be strong due to increased import costs and supply tightening. The strategy is to be bearish on rallies for the 09 contract before mid - June and bullish in the long - term, and to conduct a long 9 - short 1 spread strategy. [6] Corn - On May 15, the corn price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and that in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased by 10 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the price increase is limited by the increased supply from traders, but there is support from the strong market sentiment. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive due to reduced production and imports, but the upside space is limited by substitutes. The strategy is to be bullish in general, with the 07 contract oscillating at a high level and the strategy of buying at the lower end of the range, and to conduct a long 7 - short 9 spread strategy. [7] 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of various futures and spot products showed different changes. For example, CBOT soybean decreased by 22.75 cents/bu, while CBOT corn increased by 3.50 cents/bu. [8]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡下跌，尾盘收阴，最高 14015 元/吨，最低 13735 元/吨， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, with prices under pressure but limited decline due to the discounted futures price. Egg prices are supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. Oils have rebounded due to improved macro - environment and USDA report, but face supply pressure in the short - term and are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn prices are supported in the short - term and have upward drivers in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On May 14, spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and later supply will increase. Demand is limited, and the overall supply - demand game intensifies, with prices fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase from May to September 2024, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to wait for a rebound and short on the high side [1]. Eggs - On May 14, prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable. Short - term prices are supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase, and the 06 contract may face pressure if the festival effect is weak. The strategy is to short lightly on the rebound for the 06 contract and be bearish on 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm Oil**: MPOB April report is neutral - bearish, and May data shows high production and weak exports, with large inventory accumulation pressure in Malaysia. In China, inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May. The 07 contract faces pressure at 3900 - 4000 [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA May report is bullish, but the rise of US soybeans is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounds due to improved macro - environment and tight domestic supply. In China, inventory is at a high level, but if supply tightens, inventory is expected to decrease [6]. - Overall, oils rebound in May, but short - term supply pressure limits the rebound height. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to short cautiously after a rebound for 09 contracts and consider spreading strategies for bean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [7][8]. Soybean Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, but the upside is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and prices are expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to increased costs and weather disturbances. The strategy is to short on the high side for the 09 contract in the short - term and go long on the low side in the long - term [8]. Corn - On May 13, prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang were stable. Short - term supply is tight, supporting prices, but the upside may be limited. In the long - term, there are upward drivers, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range, and consider a 9 - 1 spread positive arbitrage [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, ICE rapeseed, and egg futures prices changed on May 13. Other varieties such as soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also had price fluctuations [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: May 13, 2025 - Industry: Pig Industry [1][2] Core Viewpoint - The supply of pigs is increasing, demand is weakening, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, leading to a weak spot price. Futures contracts are trading at a discount to the spot, and are expected to trade weakly due to the off - season demand and the expected supply from secondary fattening [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and trended downwards, closing at 13,870 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 506 lots to 151,384 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs across the country was 14.77 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Demand Side**: The current fattening cost is low and the breeding profit is good, but the pen utilization rate is relatively high. Secondary fattening replenishment is sporadic and continuous, not concentrated. After the festival, terminal demand weakened, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises declined. On May 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,200 heads, down 100 from the previous day and 4,500 from a week ago [7] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May is 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual slaughter volume in April. The post - festival slaughter of the breeding side is normal, and with the continuous slaughter of previously second - fattened pigs, the slaughter weight increased slightly [7] 2. Industry News - From April 30th week's data, the weekly slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.3223 million heads; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 147,408 heads, an increase of 7,798 heads from the previous week, with a daily average increase of 5.59% - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of April 30th was 649 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [10] 3. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of April 30th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 191 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 21.5 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [19] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: In the week of April 30th, the national average slaughter weight was 129.22 kg, an increase of 0.28 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - **Spot Market**: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

Group 1: Core Breeding and Sales - The company operates three core breeding farms and four binary breeding farms, ranking first nationally in Duroc pig breeding for several years [1] - The company focuses on balanced breeding to improve growth speed and reproductive performance, aiming to shorten the time to market and enhance barn utilization [1] - The company anticipates that the current price of piglets will remain stable until October, with a low likelihood of prices falling below cost during the off-season [1] Group 2: Feed Sales and Market Dynamics - The feed distributor primarily sells pig feed to local smallholders, with sales volume around 1,200 tons per month, peaking at 1,400-1,500 tons [1] - The distributor notes a decline in self-breeding households due to stricter environmental regulations [1] Group 3: Pig Raising and Market Conditions - The contract farmer in Sichuan raises 7,000 pigs across two farms, with a total raising fee of approximately 220 yuan per pig [2] - The farmer highlights significant issues with piglet diarrhea affecting growth rates, leading to a desire for heavier pigs among both smallholders and larger farms [2] - A breeding company with a 200-head boar station believes piglet prices will remain high, with traditional seasonal price increases expected [2] Group 4: Trade and Supply Chain - A trading company focuses on pig trade, moving 5-6 trucks of pigs to slaughterhouses daily, with peak volumes reaching 30-40 trucks [3] - The company observes a stable price for piglets, predicting limited price increases but a potential decline after the end of the second fattening phase [3] - Another trading firm has shifted focus to piglet trade and reports increased supply of heavier pigs post-Qingming Festival, while anticipating a potential price drop for piglets [3] Group 5: Fattening and Market Impact - A company with 10,000 fattening pigs has cleared its stock, with an average weight of 120 kg per pig, and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.5-2.6 [3] - The company indicates that if prices for second fattening pigs drop below 7 yuan/kg, it will consider restocking or fattening pigs [3] - The company believes that second fattening will significantly impact this year's pig market [3]

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving the productivity of breeding sows and reducing costs while increasing efficiency [1][2] - The supply of pigs cannot be solely predicted by the number of breeding sows; performance improvements must also be considered to estimate supply increments [1] - The presence of speculators in the swine farming industry has increased due to various factors, including financial pressure and high price volatility [1] Group 1: Breeding and Production - In 2024, the pig output in Fujian is projected to be 16.5258 million heads, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, ranking 16th in the country [2] - The breeding sow inventory in Fujian is estimated to be between 700,000 and 750,000 heads, with many new breeding farms established in recent years [2] - A core breeding enterprise emphasizes balanced breeding principles, achieving significant improvements in growth performance metrics for "American" Duroc pigs [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In Jiangxi, the pig output for 2024 is expected to be 30.356 million heads, with a significant portion of production based on a company-plus-farmer model [5] - The second fattening group has become increasingly important, with trade merchants actively participating in this segment [5][6] - The average weight of pigs for second fattening has shifted to 120-125 kg, influenced by breed upgrades and lower feed prices [7] Group 3: Health Concerns - The outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) has raised concerns, particularly affecting piglets and potentially leading to significant mortality rates [8] - The impact of common pig diseases is expected to remain low this year, with strict environmental regulations and disease management practices in place [9] - The assessment of production losses due to PED varies, with mainstream estimates suggesting a 5% loss [8]