Group 1 - The A-share market experienced weak fluctuations on September 3, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices collectively retreating, while sectors such as power equipment, new energy, media, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - The gold ETF (159834.SZ) rose by 1.28% as of 1:30 PM, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - The long-term allocation logic for gold ETFs is supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and easing inflation data, which strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, potentially boosting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Global geopolitical conflicts and ongoing trade friction risks enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold, leading to sustained demand [1] - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold continues, providing structural support for gold prices due to ample long-term allocation momentum [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election cycle is expected to increase market volatility, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a risk-averse asset [1] Group 3 - The gold sector benefits from an upward shift in price levels and the logic of resource scarcity, alongside deepening expectations of global monetary easing, which enhances the asset allocation value of gold [1] - In the context of intensified short-term competition in industrial and energy metals, the gold ETF (159834.SZ) is prioritized as a tool that combines liquidity and defensiveness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and increased market risk aversion, with both London spot gold and New York futures reaching historical highs [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of September 3, London spot gold surpassed $3540, peaking at $3546.9, while New York futures exceeded $3600, reaching $3616.9, marking a year-to-date increase of 37% [3]. - The Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to ¥813.74 per gram, with a peak of ¥816.78, while the Shanghai spot gold price increased by 1.1% to ¥810.80 per gram [3]. - Gold ETFs have shown strong performance, with 14 gold ETFs rising over 29% year-to-date, and six gold stock ETFs increasing over 60%, led by the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry ETF at 67.17% [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices also maintained an upward trend, with New York silver futures reaching $41.99 and London spot silver hitting $40.9, both the highest levels since 2012 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract reached ¥9864 per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 31% [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Impact - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of another cut by year-end, historically leading to significant increases in gold and silver prices [5]. - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with potential for two cuts within the year [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Factors - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly following President Trump's actions, have heightened market anxiety, contributing to the rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Emerging market countries are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, with global gold demand projected to rise by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons by Q2 2025 [7]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data release on September 5 is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with predictions of a slowdown in the labor market [8]. - Analysts suggest that if historical trends repeat, gold prices could rise to approximately $3700 per ounce during the initial months of a rate cut cycle, with a long-term outlook suggesting potential for prices to exceed $5000 [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a potential rate cut in September due to weak employment supply - demand, combined with Trump's pressure on the Fed and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - **Precious Metals in Shanghai**: For Shanghai gold, on August 25, 2025, the closing price was 775.34 yuan/gram, with a change of 3.71 compared to relevant dates. The trading volume was 31,936.00, and the holding volume was 195,962.00. For Shanghai silver, the closing price was 181.00 yuan/kg, the trading volume was 333,308.00, and the holding volume was 3,296,160.00 [1]. - **COMEX Futures**: For COMEX gold futures, the closing price was 3,417.20, the trading volume was 94,317.00, and the holding volume was 327,912.00. For COMEX silver futures, the closing price was 38.55, the trading volume was 41,605.00, and the holding volume was 44,783.00 [1]. - **International Markets**: London gold spot price was 3,335.50 dollars/ounce, and SPDR gold ETF holding volume was 1.72. London silver spot price was 38.01 dollars/ounce. The price ratios of gold to silver in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) are also presented [1]. Important News - **Geopolitical News**: The meeting between US and South Korean leaders ended without results. Trump said the July trade - agreement terms remain unchanged and hopes to meet Kim Jong - un this year. Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office and the Trump administration may sanction EU officials over the digital services law [1]. - **Macroeconomic News**: US inflation rates (PPI and core CPI) rose in July due to import tariffs. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible policy adjustment, increasing the expectation of a September rate cut. The European Central Bank may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possibility in October [1]. Trading Strategies - It is recommended to buy precious metals on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 760 - 770 and the resistance level is around 800 - 810. For London silver, the support level is around 34 - 36 and the resistance level is around 37 - 40. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,500 - 8,700 and the resistance level is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been driven by concerns over potential tariffs on gold bars imported from Switzerland, which is a major refining center for gold [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Gold Market - A report indicated that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a higher tariff code, raising fears of increased costs for imports from Switzerland [2][3] - The announcement led to a significant spike in gold futures prices, with COMEX gold reaching $3534.10 per ounce on August 8, before a subsequent clarification from the White House caused prices to drop [3][4] - The potential imposition of tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, as Switzerland plays a crucial role in refining and trading gold [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the White House's clarification that gold would not be subject to tariffs, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX futures falling over 2% to below $3400 per ounce [4][5] - The gold market has been in a consolidation phase, with London spot gold showing minimal fluctuations from May to July, indicating a period of adjustment [5][6] - Analysts suggest that short-term gold prices may oscillate between $3300 and $3500 per ounce, while medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The resolution of the tariff concerns is expected to stabilize market sentiment, allowing focus to shift back to fundamental factors such as the U.S. dollar's performance and global economic conditions [6] - Analysts believe that gold prices are likely to remain in an upward trend due to persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6] - Predictions indicate that gold could reach a target price of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for further increases to $3800 per ounce if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential in the gold mining sector [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global gold mining firm, formed by integrating all gold mines of Zijin Mining outside of China, and is one of the fastest-growing companies in the gold mining industry [1][9]. - As of the end of 2024, the company ranks ninth globally in gold reserves and eleventh in gold production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61.9% in net profit from 2022 to 2024 [1][9]. - The company operates seven controlling gold mines and one associate mine across eight countries on four continents, with a total gold resource of 1,614 tons and a reserve of 856 tons as of the end of 2024 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong historical growth trajectory, starting from the acquisition of the Tajikistan Jilau/Talco gold mine in 2007, and has since expanded its operations significantly [1][9]. - The company’s financial performance shows a robust increase in both volume and price, with a CAGR of 21.4% in gold production from 2022 to 2024 [9]. Resource Project Introduction - The company’s gold mines are distributed globally, with significant operations in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Colombia, Suriname, and Ghana [12][14]. - The average grade of the company’s gold resources is 1.4 g/t, with a total estimated gold metal content of 1,796.5 tons [16][17]. Financial Performance - The company’s total production in 2024 is projected to be 46.7 tons, with an annualized growth rate of 9.6% in gold production from 2022 to 2024 [18][19]. - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) has increased from $1,046 per ounce in 2022 to $1,458 per ounce in 2024, but the growth in costs has been well-controlled in 2024, with only a 0.6% increase year-on-year [20][21]. Core Competitiveness - The company’s competitive edge lies in its effective incentive mechanisms, a professional management team, strong acquisition capabilities, and operational efficiency [4][9]. - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base, particularly during periods of low metal prices, and has a strong exploration capability to optimize resource acquisition costs [4][9]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the gold market is poised for growth, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and increased gold purchases by central banks amid rising geopolitical risks and declining currency credit [4][9]. - The report highlights that global central banks have been significant buyers of gold, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicating a bullish outlook for gold prices [4][9].

Performance Overview - The gold industry has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, driven by high gold prices, with companies like Shandong Gold expecting a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.3% to 120.5% [1] - Western Gold anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 160 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.35% to 141.66% [2] - Some companies, such as Zhaojin Gold, have successfully turned losses into profits, projecting a net profit of 34 million to 50 million yuan compared to a loss of 54.93 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Production and Cost Focus - Institutions are increasingly interested in future gold production, capacity expansion plans, and cost changes among gold companies [1][2] - Chifeng Gold aims to enhance gold production and has reported significant cost reductions in overseas projects, maintaining relatively low unit costs in the industry [3] - Hunan Gold has indicated that its comprehensive costs have risen due to deeper underground mining, lower ore grades, and increased labor costs [3] International Gold Price Trends - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been noted, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of 3,534.1 USD per ounce on August 8 [3] - The market's expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have contributed to the upward trend in gold prices [4] Global Gold Demand and Supply - In Q2 2025, global gold demand reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [4] - Despite a 14% decline in gold jewelry demand by volume, the value of global jewelry consumption increased [4] - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2, although the pace of purchases has slowed [4]

Core Insights - In June 2025, global central banks continued to favor gold, with a net increase of 22 tons in official gold reserves, marking a slight month-on-month rise for the third consecutive month [1] - In the first half of 2025, global central bank net gold purchases totaled 123 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The National Bank of Poland emerged as the largest net buyer of gold in 2025, acquiring 67 tons, followed by the Azerbaijan State Oil Fund and the National Bank of Kazakhstan [1] Central Bank Activities - Uzbekistan's central bank was the largest net buyer in June, while Kazakhstan's International Bank also made significant purchases [1] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore was the only net seller in June, selling 6 tons of gold [1] - As of the end of July, the People's Bank of China had gold reserves of 2,300.41 tons, with an increase of 1.86 tons, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，截至7月底，中国人民银行黄金储备量2300.41吨，环比 增加1.86吨；连续九个月增持黄金。2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月环比小幅上 升。2025年上半年全球央行净购金量达123吨，较2024年同期小幅下降。 2025年6月 全球官方黄金储备净增 已连续第三个月环比小幅上升 2025年上半年 全球央行净购金量达 较2024年同期小幅下降 150 100 50 fine 0 -50 -100 -150 购金总量 售金总量 净值 6月,乌兹别克斯坦央行是 本月最大的净买家* 吉尔吉斯斯坦 乌兹别克斯坦 哈萨克斯坦 + Q Inn +7 Int 捷克 +7.00 士直其 加纳 菲律宾 -7 III 新加坡 - I URLD 放眼全球 本月最大的净买家为乌兹别克斯坦央行 哈萨克斯坦国家银行购金规模同样显著 新加坡金融管理局(MAS)是唯一的净卖家 本月净售黄金6吨 全球央行购金总量略低于2024年的同期水平 波兰国家银行是 2025年迄今为止最大的净买家 净购金67吨 其次是阿塞拜疆国家石油基金和 哈萨克斯坦国家银行 0 20 80 -20 ...

Core Insights - International gold prices are rising due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar, with spot gold surpassing $3,380 per ounce and a weekly increase of nearly 3.5% [1] - Citibank has raised its target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce over the next three months, indicating strong long-term bullish sentiment [1] Monetary Policy and Dollar Trends - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is fueled by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a potential 50 basis point cut in October, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and benefits gold [4] - Global central bank gold purchases increased by 34% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 240 tons, with China increasing its holdings for eight consecutive months, supporting long-term gold prices [4] Geopolitical and Risk Aversion Factors - Tensions in the Middle East, including missile launches from Iran towards Israel and Israel's full occupation of Gaza, have heightened risk aversion, pushing gold prices higher [5] - Trade tensions, such as Trump's tariffs on countries like Russia and India, have raised supply chain concerns, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [6] Technology and Consumer Demand - Emerging technologies like brain-computer interfaces and nanochips are increasing industrial demand for gold, with predictions of a potential increase in annual demand by thousands of tons in five years [7] - There is a divergence in consumer behavior, with traditional wedding demand remaining strong while some younger consumers are shifting towards "renting" gold jewelry; investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for price corrections [7] Market Dynamics - A psychological barrier exists where consumers tend to buy when prices are rising, leading to a 30%-40% drop in sales when prices fall, as they anticipate lower prices [8] - Merchants' promotional efforts, such as reducing processing fees, have limited impact since these fees only account for 1%-2% of the total price [9] Price Expectations - Current gold prices (approximately 780 RMB per gram) are significantly higher than the beginning of the year (around 620 RMB per gram), with consumer price expectations centered around 600-700 RMB per gram [10] Investment and Consumer Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of technical pullback risks, particularly if prices fall below $3,200 per ounce, and to avoid high-leverage operations [11] - Long-term strategies include investing in gold ETFs or accumulating gold, with a recommended allocation of no more than 10% of household assets to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [12] - Consumers in need should focus on wholesale markets for gold priced by gram and avoid high processing fee jewelry [13] - Some consumers are taking advantage of high prices to sell back gold, with ordinary jewelry being discounted by about 10 RMB per gram and high-weight gold bars only 2-3 RMB per gram [14] Future Trends Forecast - Short-term factors driving gold prices include geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations, with a target of $3,500 per ounce [15] - Mid-term price corrections may occur if trade tensions ease, potentially pulling prices back to the $2,700-$3,000 range [16] - Long-term prospects suggest a high probability of gold prices exceeding $4,000 due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [16]