许多美国公司试图向投资者保证关税是 "可控的"，但财报季初的评论表明，由于消费者对更高的价格 望而却步，利润率正面临风险。 宝洁公司、Fastenal和3M公司等风向标公司已经指出了这些挑战 。 零售巨头亚马逊首席执行官贾西（Andy Jassy）在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间表示，由于卖家为提前 应对关税而减少了库存，该公司看到其电子商务平台上的价格正在上涨 。 许多业务遍布全球的公司将在下周公布业绩，其中包括通用汽车、卡特彼勒和包装品公司金佰利-克拉 克。 虽然更广泛的消费支出依然坚挺 ，但购买者一直很谨慎，往往在寻找物有所值的商品，尤其是中低收 入者。 "Annex Wealth Management首席经济策略师布赖恩-雅各布森（Brian Jacobsen）说："虽然有些人对价格 不那么敏感，但大多数消费者仍然对目前的物价水平感到愤怒，不会对进一步涨价有好感。 根据 LSEG 的数据，下周将有 100 多家标普500公司发布报告。 券商泰尔西咨询集团（Telsey Advisory Group）的一份报告显示，园艺和农用设备销售商Tractor Supply 预计今年将实现与关税相关的提价。 "麦考密 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility due to President Trump's tariff threats, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and earnings reports from major tech companies [1][2][11] - The S&P 500 index had a 2% increase before a drop of over 2% following tariff announcements [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during its meeting on January 28 [3] - The likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut is only 4% according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] - Recent economic data suggests a resilient jobs market, with the unemployment rate improving to 4.4% in December from 4.5% in November [4][5] Earnings Reports from "Magnificent Seven" - Four companies from the "Magnificent Seven" will report earnings this week: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Apple [6][11] Tesla - Expected revenue for Tesla in Q4 is $24.9 billion, a 3% decrease, with non-GAAP earnings projected to drop 45% to $0.40 per diluted share [6] - Focus will be on CEO Elon Musk's comments regarding physical AI initiatives [7] Microsoft - Anticipated revenue increase of 15% to $80.3 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to rise 20% to $3.86 per diluted share [8] - Investors will pay attention to Azure's revenue growth and generative AI adoption [8] Meta Platforms - Expected revenue growth of 21% to $58 billion, with non-GAAP earnings projected to increase 3% to $8.23 per diluted share [9] - Investors are looking for continued trends in engagement and advertising conversion rates due to AI investments [9] Apple - Expected revenue increase of 11% to $138 billion, with GAAP earnings also projected to rise 11% to $2.67 per diluted share [10] - Market focus will be on iPhone sales and updates regarding AI innovation [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The supply chain is under relentless pressure due to tariffs, global conflicts, regulatory turmoil, and climate-related disruptions, leading to unpredictable demand and increased operational risks [4] - Organizations must anticipate shocks and integrate redundancy mechanisms to enhance resilience and agility, leveraging modern software powered by AI and machine learning [5] - A diversified supplier base is essential to mitigate risks associated with trade and supply disruptions, with 77% of supply chain leaders identifying trade uncertainty as a primary business concern [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory agility and the need for robust inventory management to minimize disruptions and costly delays [27] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Challenges - Supply chains are facing ongoing volatility with significant impacts from tariffs and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased material costs and operational risks [4][9] - The initial impacts of tariffs are already reflected in raw material costs and consumer spending habits, with over half of consumers altering their spending on non-essential items due to tariffs [17] Strategies for Resilience - Organizations should diversify their supplier base to avoid over-reliance on a single region and consider nearshore partnerships to reduce risks and delivery times [12] - Developing alternative transportation methods and monitoring hotspots in supply regions are crucial for ensuring timely product delivery [13][14] Inventory Management - Maintaining buffer inventory can help absorb short-term fluctuations and stabilize pricing and profitability [28] - Implementing product-specific inventory strategies is necessary as different products face varying levels of risk exposure [29] Technology Integration - The integration of AI and machine learning is critical for smarter forecasting and operational efficiency, with over 80% of enterprises expected to utilize generative AI by 2026 [33] - AI can help optimize inventory levels and improve decision-making through real-time insights and alerts [34][37] Cybersecurity and Data Resilience - Cybersecurity threats are on the rise, with 72% of respondents reporting increased risks, necessitating robust security measures and backup systems [40][44] - Organizations should invest in top-tier security tools and regularly audit third-party vendors for compliance [42][43] Labor Efficiency - Enhancing labor efficiency through automation and comprehensive training is essential in the face of labor shortages and rising wages [47][48] - Organizations should prioritize cross-functional training to maximize the value of technology investments [49] Regulatory Compliance - Despite a trend towards reduced regulation, organizations must continue to prioritize compliance with existing regulations and ESG standards [50][51] - Mapping regulatory risks across the supply chain can help proactively address potential issues and strengthen partnerships [52] Financial Risk Management - Auditing financial risk exposure is crucial to identify areas contributing to increased costs and to renegotiate supplier contracts accordingly [55][56] - Organizations should consider hidden costs in pricing strategies to mitigate profit losses [59] Visibility and Software Upgrades - Enhancing end-to-end visibility is vital for addressing inefficiencies and delays, with modern software enabling real-time data integration [63] - Upgrading software platforms to share data across teams can minimize errors and improve decision-making [64]

美国总统特朗普日前称，若加拿大同中国达成贸易协定，美方将对所有加拿大进口商品征收100%关 税。对此，外交部发言人郭嘉昆26日在例行记者会上表示，中国主张各国应以共赢而非零和的理念、合 作而非对抗的方式处理国与国关系。中加构建新型战略伙伴关系，就妥善解决中加之间经贸问题作出一 些具体安排，体现了平等相待、开放包容、和平合作、共享共赢的精神，不针对任何第三方，符合两国 人民共同利益，也有利于世界和平稳定与发展繁荣。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两家 报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜，推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。此次， 作为其中的一环，两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 编者荐语： 以下文章来源于FT中文网 ，作者裘菊 2025年，中美贸易关系在高关税和频繁博弈中剧烈震荡，中国制造业由此经历了一场史无前 例的"压力测试"。与此前的周期性下行不同，本轮冲击并非主要源于内生需求不足，而是高 度集中体现为外部冲击及其带来的不确定的放大效应。 本文通过梳理制造业PMI、PPI等核心宏观指标在2025年的动态变化，并将其与中美关税博 弈的关键时间节点相对照，力图还原中国制造在冲击下的真实运行轨迹，评估其对产业链不 同环节的结构性影响，并在此基础上对2026年制造业修复前景做出初步判断。 阅读更多内容请点击下方"阅读原文" （本文由FT中文网提供） 2025年贸易博弈通过反复拉锯所强化的不确定性，放大了企业决策和经营行为的顺 周期特征，进而加剧了价格下行压力与利润空间压缩。 文丨裘菊 FT中文网 . 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站 ...

Global Research ab 20 January 2026 First Read Global Strategy Tariffs 2.0: is this time different? Executive Summary On Jan17, President Trump announced that select European countries would face an additional 10% tariff on goods shipped to the US starting Feb 1, until a deal is reached for the "complete and total purchase of Greenland." Although market reaction has been relatively muted so far, prior episodes show that credit spreads typically peak around T+4 to T+6 days post announcement. At the sector lev ...

特朗普随即指责加拿大对美国的军事保护忘恩负义，并声称该国"是因为美国才得以生存"，卡尼反驳了 这一说法。此外，在卡尼签署加入所谓的"和平委员会"仅一周后，特朗普就撤回了对加拿大的邀请。 美加紧张关系面临进一步加剧。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁称，如果加拿大与有关国家"达成协议"， 将对进入美国的加拿大商品征收100%的关税。 此前这位加拿大领导人在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上发表了言辞犀利的演讲，警告各国不要受到 大国的胁迫，其中隐含了对特朗普领导能力的谴责。 特朗普还表示，加拿大反对他计划中的导弹防御项目"金穹"，尽管目前尚不清楚这是否真的是渥太华方 面的立场，但美国财政部长贝森特本周表示，特朗普已邀请加拿大参与该项目。 同样不清楚的是，任何关税变动对《美墨加协定》所覆盖商品意味着什么。目前，该协定项下的商品通 常是免关税的，这一豁免意味着绝大多数加拿大对美出口商品并未面临关税。 目前非豁免商品的关税税率为35%，钢、铝等特定行业则适用不同的税率。 汽车行业的管理层已向特朗普政府发出警告，称对汽车零部件（加拿大主要出口产品之一）征收关税将 迅速破坏美国工厂的制造活动。 "总统似乎再次在立场上出尔反尔，这种行 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a downturn due to concerns over tariffs and uncertainties related to the situation in Greenland [1] Group 1 - The situation in Greenland has led to a market shock, causing a decline in various sectors [1]