Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the gold market, driven by various factors including U.S. tariffs on gold bars and changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel, which have created uncertainty and volatility in gold prices [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On August 8, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice emphasizing the need for risk control in light of recent market instability, urging members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [2]. - During the Asian trading session on August 8, COMEX gold prices surged to a record high of $3534.1 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline later in the day [2]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Reports indicated that the U.S. government imposed tariffs on 1-kilogram gold bars, a common trading form in the New York Commodity Exchange, which surprised market participants who expected exemptions [2]. - A White House official announced plans to clarify misinformation regarding the taxation of gold bars, which led to a temporary drop in COMEX gold prices [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Developments - The recent nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump has raised concerns about potential changes in trade policy, contributing to market uncertainty [2]. - Morgan Stanley's report predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by three additional cuts, citing signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [2].

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 美俄据称寻求达成俄乌停火协议，提振风险偏好，叠加市场对降息的预期，美股科技股走强，苹果领涨，推动纳指再度收创新高，今年累计上涨约11%。 苹果涨4.2%，本周累计涨13.3%，创2020年以来的最大单周涨幅。"两房"有望年内上市，股价大涨超20%。 美债收益率普涨，10年期涨近3.5基点。以太坊涨4.8%，比特币跌。 黄金关税的消息一度推动期金涨超2%、创盘中历史新高，此后美政府称"误读"、不征黄金关税，金价一度跳水。俄乌消息令美油一度较日高跌近2.7%。国 内夜盘烧碱收涨超2.1%，焦煤跌超0.5%。 亚洲时段，A股三大指数集体收跌，新疆概念股逆势掀涨停潮，恒指跌近1%，半导体调整、中芯国际大跌超8%。 8月17日上海Alpha线下闭门课，Clocktower首席策略师王凯文带你洞察地缘政治里的市场机会，了解详情>> 要闻 习近平同俄罗斯总统普京通电话。 美俄据称拟达成俄乌停火协议，原油"闪跌"，白宫官员称美俄元首暂定下周末会晤。 债市：美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨3.29个基点，报4.2829%，本周累计上涨6.70个基点 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. gold futures reached a record high due to uncertainty surrounding potential country-specific import tariffs on commonly traded gold bars, impacting global supply chains and the U.S. gold futures market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - December U.S. gold futures rose to $3,494.10 per ounce, hitting a record of $3,534.10 earlier in the session, following reports of potential tariffs [2]. - Spot prices eased to $3,394 per ounce but increased by 0.9% for the week, with the spread between U.S. gold futures and spot prices widening to $100 [7]. Group 2: Implications of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs could threaten New York's dominance in the gold futures market, as prices have risen sharply compared to other trading centers [5]. - Swiss goods, including gold, are subject to U.S. import tariffs of 39%, with ongoing negotiations aimed at reducing these levies [8]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on the gold industry and is actively engaging with stakeholders on the matter [9].

（文章来源：央视新闻） 人民财讯8月8日电，美国纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格8日亚洲早盘上涨至每盎司3534.10美 元，创历史新高。前一天，英国《金融时报》报道说，美国政府已对重量1公斤的进口金条施加关税。 报道说，这一消息来自美国海关与边境保护局7月31日的一封信函。这封信函称1公斤和100盎司的金条 应归类于一个需缴纳更高税额的关税编码之下。 ...

格隆汇8月8日丨美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："关税正对股市产生巨大的积极影响。几乎每天 都在创下新纪录。此外，数千亿美元正涌入美国的国库。如果一个激进的左翼法院在这个时候做出对我 们不利的裁决，试图打压或扰乱美国有史以来规模最大的资金、财富创造和影响力，那么我们将永远无 法挽回或偿还这些巨额资金，也无法挽回荣誉。那将是1929年的重演，一场大萧条！" ...

美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事 Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理事席位。 据媒体最新分析，此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢 得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任命。 特朗普明确表示，"与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。这被市 场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。野村证券外汇策略师 Yusuke Miyairi指出，对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音，更重要的是，它预示着 特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并为未来可能出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔。 一场"过渡性"任命：争取时间，保留选择 特朗普此次提名Miran，其核心在于"过渡"二字。Miran的任期仅持 ...

Core Insights - The US stock market has shifted from a continuous upward trend to a wait-and-see phase, influenced by recent trade agreements and mixed economic signals [3][4][5] - The technology sector has shown strong performance, particularly driven by major companies like Apple and Amazon, while traditional sectors like energy and finance have struggled [5][12] Market Performance - As of August 7, the S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 2.6% over the last 10 trading days, while the Nasdaq 100 index has performed even better with a rise of about 4.3% [4][6] - The recent performance of the Nasdaq is largely attributed to positive developments from tech giants, particularly in AI and manufacturing initiatives [5][12] Sector Analysis - The technology sector has outperformed, with significant contributions from companies like Apple, which announced a $100 billion investment in US manufacturing, leading to a 5% increase in its stock price [5][12] - Other AI-related companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have also reported strong earnings, contributing to their stock price increases [5][12] Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll data revealed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, leading to concerns about a cooling labor market [12] - The downward revision of previous months' job growth by a total of 258,000 jobs has heightened fears of recession or stagflation [12] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have left interest rates unchanged, but there is speculation about potential rate cuts in September, influenced by inflation and tariff uncertainties [9][15] - The market's expectation for a rate cut has fluctuated, with the probability dropping to 42% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][15]

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's total export value reached $321.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding market expectations of 5.79%[1] - Exports to economies excluding the U.S. increased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.6%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall export growth[1] - Key regions driving export growth included Latin America (+0.8 pct), South Korea (+0.5 pct), and Taiwan (+0.4 pct)[1] U.S. Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 21.6% year-on-year in July, a decline of 5.6 percentage points compared to June, impacting overall exports by 3.3 percentage points[2] - Container shipping rates to the U.S. dropped approximately 28% in the last week of July compared to the last week of June, indicating a slowdown in trade[2] - The expected monthly export range to the U.S. is projected between $35.8 billion and $38.2 billion, with year-on-year growth unlikely to return to positive figures[2] Regional Export Dynamics - South Korea's exports grew by 5.9% in July, the highest rate this year, driven by semiconductor exports which rose by 31.6%[3] - Vietnam maintained a high export growth rate of 17.7% in July, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 26%[3] - The export growth of labor-intensive products, machinery, and high-tech products showed varying degrees of slowdown, with labor-intensive products declining to -0.6%[4] Import Trends - Total imports in July reached $223.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, up 3 percentage points from June[4] - Significant contributors to import growth included bulk commodities, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products, with increases of 1.6, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively[4] - The import of crude oil and copper ore saw notable rebounds, while iron ore imports fell by 8.8%[4] Future Outlook - China's export resilience is expected to continue, with positive year-on-year growth anticipated from August to October 2025, despite potential short-term declines in November and December due to high base effects[6] - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs may further impact global trade dynamics, with uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and potential tariff expansions to other economies[6]

Core Insights - France's trade deficit has significantly widened amid escalating trade tensions and economic downturn, reaching €43 billion in the first half of the year, an increase of €4.4 billion compared to the second half of 2024 [1] Trade Deficit Analysis - In the first half of the year, imports rose by 1.9% year-on-year, outpacing export growth of 0.7%, contributing to the expanding trade deficit [1] - The trade deficit for the second quarter alone reached €22.9 billion, an increase of €2.8 billion from the first quarter [1] - Key factors for the widening deficit include rising energy prices, a decline in electricity exports, decreased exports of aerospace and maritime products, and a significant increase in pharmaceutical imports, which hit a "historical high" [1] Yearly Trade Deficit Overview - Over the past 12 months, France's cumulative trade deficit has reached €81.7 billion [1] - Since the imposition of new tariffs by the U.S. in early April, French exports to the U.S. have seen a slight year-on-year decline, but no significant drop has been observed compared to the same period last year [1] Government Response - The French Minister for Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, indicated that the trade deficit serves as a serious warning signal for France, especially in light of new trade agreements between the EU and the U.S. [1] - He urged France and Europe to take action to enhance competitiveness and "accelerate efforts" to avoid falling behind [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August