美联储周四凌晨将公布利率决议，预计本次继续维持利率不变，但由于特朗普的关税给经济前景蒙上了不确定性的阴影，这可能是最后一次能够如此笃定预 测结果的美联储会议。美联储决策官员预计，关税将推高通胀和失业率，但具体程度和持续时间尚不清楚。而就业数据强劲为美联储提供了继续等待的空 间，美联储要到6月才会发布新的季度预测，因此投资者关注主席鲍威尔的会后记者会，以寻找有关利率走势的线索。 彭博社列举了美联储保持耐心的四大理由： 经济前景异常黯淡，美国关税快速上调且幅度远超美联储官员预期，这在历史上尚属首次。 美国的增长潜力急剧下降，贸易政策的转变将损害生产力增长；劳动力增长的大幅下降也将抑制经济活动。 鉴于通胀率有望连续第五年超过美联储2%的目标，政策制定者需要谨慎行事，避免犯下可能导致通胀预期失控的错误。 鉴于特朗普总统对美联储政策的攻击，耐心也变得更加重要，否则降息会被解读为屈服于白宫的压力，考验着美联储的独立性。 旨在预测美联储行动的掉期合约预期美联储6月开始降息，未来利率走势暗示，到今年年底，美联储将把联邦基金利率目标下调75个基点至100个基点。也有 一些人预测美联储今年不会采取行动。由于个人支出疲软和通胀放缓 ...

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 2 0 2 5年一季度美国GDP实际环比折年率从2 0 2 4年四季度的2 . 4%快速下降至- 0 . 3%，主要拖累为进 口增加、政府支出减少，同时美国消费韧性也在下降。4 月美国非农数据显示美国就业市场近期保 持了相对平稳，市场降息预期降温。若特朗普关税倾向不改，特朗普关税等政策对美国经济的负面 冲击预计将持续，未来美国就业市场、GDP增长难言乐观。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年一季度美国GDP实际环比折年率从2 0 2 4年四季度的2 . 4%快速下降至- 0 . 3%，主要拖累 为进口增加、政府支出减少。 从私人投资细分项来看，美国私人投资项中最高贡献项为私人库存增加，其次为企业投资项增 加，但其主要由关税政策下抢库存推动，企业未来库存预期实际上在下降。美国GDP私人存货变 化的领先指标出现下降迹象，中小企业的库存扩张计划预期在特朗普上台后也显著下滑。美国企 业累库行为未来或随着关税政策逐步落地而减弱，美国GDP私人存货变化对美国GDP的正向贡献 或将随之下降。 ▍ 美国企业投资或仍有一定韧性，但美国住宅投资受高利率抑制。 美国制造业核心资本品新订单从2 0 2 4年末开始提升 ...

参与会议的美国大型银行和美国信投公司的高层解释了许多企业对关税的担忧。美国花旗集 团首席执行官Jane Fraser表示，客户企业"把部分支出提前，并推迟投资决策。仍在观望中"。 Jane Fraser还表示："大部分客户认为，如果关税率为10%是可以承受的，如果是25%则不可承 受"。美国已对许多国家和地区实施了统一的10%的对等关税，在此基础上的附加部分除了中 国之外已暂时停止。 美国大型投资公司KKR的联合创始人Henry Kravis表示，最近对话的企业经营者都将"关税视 为首要课题，正在考虑如何应对"。与他一起发言的KKR联合创始人George Roberts表示，由 于美国政府在某些领域表现出让步的姿态，在单独进行的双边贸易谈判中"将达成协议"，持乐 观态度。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）竹内弘文 洛杉矶 出席米尔肯研究所全球会议的国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃（5月5日，洛杉矶，REUTERS） IMF总裁指出，特朗普关税将改变传统的国际贸易体系，转向新体系伴随着不确定 性，"影响深远"。花旗集团CEO表示："大部分客户认为，如果关税率为10%是可以承受的，如 果是25%则不可 ...

【导读】国际金价再度飙升，突破3300美元/盎司关口 中国基金报记者 忆山 在经历短暂回调后，国际金价再次大涨！ 5月5日，黄金期货和现货价格均再次突破3300美元/盎司关口。截至发稿，COMEX黄金报3302.3美元/盎司，上涨1.82%；伦敦金现 报3301.054美元/盎司，上涨1.87%。 | | 864 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:27 | 3302.1 | 2 | | | 43 | 3302.2 | | | Manager of the Research of the | 15:21 | 3302.6 | 25 | 此前，国际金价曾连续下跌，4月30日至5月2日期间，COMEX黄金、伦敦金现跌幅分别为3%、2.29%。受此影响，"五一"期间国内 首饰金价也普遍跌破1000元/克关口，部分品牌报价甚至重回"8字头"。 当前，特朗普关税政策、美联储降息预期、地缘风险等因素的变化，仍然是影响金价的主要原因。 福能期货分析，由于全球市场经济数据显示欧元区通胀超预期，美国降息预期有所回落，节假日期间外盘贵金属价格出现回落。 不过，5月5日，美国总统特朗普最新 ...

虽然以上国家和地区，并没有从明面上达成共识，要共同反制特朗普的关税政策，但这么多经济体，各自通过自己的方式对美说不，本质上已经构成了类似 于"反特朗普关税防线"的效果，因此一定程度上来说，当下是中方"援手"全部到齐，美国越发走向众叛亲离。 不止如此，就连美国国内，对特朗普的支持声也开始肉眼可见地降低，就在日前，特朗普才达成一项重大成就：以39%支持率创造了美国80年来历任总 统"百日执政"的最差民调表现。有意思的是，此前特朗普在国会发表演讲时还曾高调吹嘘自己新任期的开场表现，自封美国有史以来"最伟大总统"。 关税阴谋失败，特朗普开始要"讲道理"了吗？如今美国面临的危机有多大？ 日前美国总统特朗普做出了一番堪称搞笑的表态，他表示在关税谈判上，自己将会开始"讲道理"（We will be reasonable on tarrifs.）。释放出怎样的信号呢？ 在这之前，特朗普乃至白宫甚至整个特朗普政府，都在不断对外宣扬，已经有很多国家主动找到特朗普政府求饶，希望能尽快和美国达成贸易协议，以换取 美国的关税豁免。特朗普甚至还异常惊人地宣称很多国家高层等着要"亲吻我的屁股"。 但与之相对应的是，似乎没有一桩已经明确达成 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing economists' expectations of 130,000, although it was lower than the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the core working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high [7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was led by the healthcare and transportation sectors, while manufacturing saw significant job losses due to a decline in overall PMI output [6] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced its highest job growth since December, driven by a surge in import orders before the implementation of tariffs [6] - The federal government has seen job cuts for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak of layoffs since 2022, primarily due to budget cuts [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economists predict that the most severe impacts of tariff policies will manifest in the coming months, potentially accelerating layoffs [5][8] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months has increased significantly, with estimates rising from 30% to 45% [9] - Consumer confidence has dropped to historical lows, and households are expected to face reduced spending power due to inflationary pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the PCE price index has eased market concerns about a resurgence of high inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Economic Indicators - The March PCE price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since last autumn, slightly above the expected 2.2% [4][6]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.8%, with both PCE and core PCE showing no month-on-month change [2][4][6]. - Consumer spending in March increased by 0.7%, the largest gain since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [6]. - The probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 65.5%, while the likelihood of a cut next week remains low at 5.6% [12]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are cautious but may consider rate cuts if the labor market weakens significantly due to tariff policies [12][13]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as it may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [13]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the core PCE price index could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, marking a new high since September 2024 [8]. - The Fed's potential actions may be influenced by the outcome of trade agreements and the overall economic data in the coming months [12].

周三，美国参议院以势均力敌的投票结果否决了两党共同提出的阻止特朗普关税政策的议案。就在几个 小时前，美国联邦政府报告称，由于特朗普关税政策引发的混乱，美国经济三年来首次出现收缩。 有三名共和党人加入民主党人行列，支持终止特朗普宣布的国家紧急状态，此前特朗普以该紧急状态为 依据，对美国贸易伙伴实施10%的全球关税，并对包括欧盟在内的57个贸易伙伴实施更高的对等关税。 但49票对49票的投票结果未能达到通过该决议并将其提交至众议院所需的简单多数票。 共和党的支持力度相比几周前有所下降，当时四名参议院共和党人与民主党人一起通过了一项类似的法 案，寻求终止对加拿大的新关税。目前共和党在参议院中以53票对47票占据多数。 提出该议案的俄勒冈州民主党参议员罗恩・怀登（Ron Wyden）在投票前表示："美国参议院不能在这 种关税疯狂行为中袖手旁观。国会有权设定关税并监管全球贸易。" 美国商务部周三早些时候报告称，由于企业为避免关税带来的更高成本而大量进口商品，在2025年前三 个月，美国经济收缩0.3%，这是自2022年第一季度以来的首次负增长。 这份经济报告首次切实证明了特朗普关税政策对经济的影响。在此之前，美国股市和 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs this month, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 and significantly below the expected 115,000 jobs [1][3] - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for employees staying in their current positions rising by 4.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March, while salaries for job switchers increased to 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [3] Group 2 - The report comes amid increasing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on corporate hiring plans and the broader economic situation [3] - The ADP data serves as a leading indicator for the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a job growth of 135,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [3]

Group 1 - The old market adage "Sell in May and go away" is influencing the current rebound in the US stock market, with historical data supporting this trend [1] - A fund tracking the S&P 500 index since 1993 shows a cumulative return of 171% from May to October, compared to 731% from November to April, indicating a significant seasonal performance difference [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 12% from its low this month but is still down 5.5% year-to-date, suggesting caution in chasing gains [1] Group 2 - Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 index has only achieved a cumulative return of 35% from May to October, while the return from November to April has been as high as 11,657% [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key focus for the market, as it may influence investor sentiment and market direction [2] - Some indicators have signaled a buying opportunity, including a drop in investor confidence and the S&P 500 index recovering above 5,500 points, indicating a potential shift towards buying on dips [2] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that in years where the stock market has a poor start, the S&P 500 index tends to perform worse from May to October, with an average decline of 0.4% in such years [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF has seen a year-to-date decline of 5.4%, reflecting the cautious market sentiment [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated around 25, above the long-term average of approximately 20, indicating ongoing market volatility [3] Group 4 - The potential expiration of tariff suspensions by Trump in July could serve as a source of volatility, reinforcing the "Sell in May" trend and highlighting the impact of global trade dynamics on market movements [5] - Market analysts suggest that long-term holding strategies may be wiser for ordinary investors compared to attempting to time the market, with a buy-and-hold strategy since 1993 yielding a return of 2,100% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [5]