曾经的"理财神器"飞天茅台，如今却成了黄牛们甩也甩不掉的"烫手山芋"。价格跌破2000元，昔日疯抢的盛况已成云烟，取而代之的是亏本甩卖的无奈。白 酒股应声下跌，无数投资者深陷其中，血本无归。 这突如其来的变局，究竟是如何发生的？普通投资者又该如何自处？ 贵州回收茅台的老李，便是这波行情下的一个缩影。去年高价收购的大批飞天茅台，如今价格暴跌，最终以亏损一辆奔驰的惨痛代价，认清了现实的残酷。 不仅是老李，许多小型烟酒店和专营店也开始缩减业务，甚至将茅台下架，避免尴尬的询价。 朋友圈和二手平台上，充斥着低价转让飞天茅台的信息，"保 本出"、"亏本也要脱手"的呼声此起彼伏，与几年前的"惜售"形成鲜明对比。 "茅台镇从不相信眼泪，只有行情说了算"，这句冷酷的话，道出了残酷的现 实。 飞天茅台曾被视为"硬通货"，用途广泛，甚至有人将其当成"理财产品"，定期购入，期待未来高价卖出。然而，如今这一逻辑已彻底崩塌。 茅台价格暴跌的原因，并非单一因素，而是多重因素共同作用的结果。首先，消费需求放缓，高端白酒不再是送礼的首选；其次，资本市场对白酒行业的预 期下降，机构资金撤离，导致整个板块下行；最后，市场监管趋严，国家加强对炒酒行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Xijiu Investment Holding Group has experienced a slowdown in growth after its independence from Moutai, with first-quarter revenue of 7.18 billion yuan, a 10.7% year-on-year increase, falling below the industry average growth rate of 15% for 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Xijiu's revenue surged from 1.6 billion yuan before acquisition to over 20 billion yuan at independence, capturing 12.3% of the sauce-flavored liquor market [3]. - In 2023, Xijiu reported revenue of 19.9 billion yuan and a profit of 9 billion yuan, with sales reaching 22.447 billion yuan, indicating a more subdued performance compared to previous years [4]. - The company aims to exceed 24 billion yuan in sales in 2024, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth, which, while above the industry average, shows a decline from its earlier rapid growth [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - After separating from Moutai, Xijiu faces significant challenges in establishing its brand identity, with 67% of consumers still associating it with Moutai [10]. - Competitors such as Langjiu, Guotai, and Jinsanjiao pose strong competition, with Langjiu having a higher brand recognition among consumers at 58% compared to Xijiu's 35% [9]. - Xijiu's flagship products, Junpin Xijiu and Jiao Cang 1988, are experiencing severe price declines, with Junpin Xijiu's market price dropping to around 665 yuan, significantly below its suggested retail price of 1498 yuan [11][13]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - To address the challenges, Xijiu is investing 8.4 billion yuan to build a production capacity of 100,000 tons, aiming for a base liquor reserve of 250,000 tons by 2025 [7]. - The company is also attempting to penetrate the high-end market with products like the "Junpin・Master Collection," which utilizes 30-year-old base liquor to enhance quality and brand image [5]. - Xijiu is targeting younger consumers through collaborations with popular games and esports events, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen [8]. Group 4: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Xijiu is currently facing a significant pricing issue, with its two main products priced below their production costs, leading to a price inversion problem [10][14]. - The company has adjusted its marketing strategy by eliminating reverse red envelopes to stabilize pricing, but the effectiveness of this measure is still uncertain [16].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Wuliangye Group, Zeng Congqin, emphasized the importance of collaboration and resilience in navigating the cyclical nature of the liquor industry, asserting that the cultural and emotional attributes of liquor remain unchanged despite industry adjustments [1][3]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a deep adjustment period, following a historical trajectory that includes a golden period (2003-2012), a deep adjustment period (2013-2015), a structural prosperity period (2016-2023), and now a new deep adjustment period starting in 2024. The overall trend is described as wave-like progress and spiral ascent [3][4]. Product Strategy - Wuliangye's management highlighted a "quantity-price balance strategy" for its core product, the eighth generation of Wuliangye liquor. The company plans to dynamically adjust the volume and timing of product releases to meet market demand [4][6]. - In early 2023, Wuliangye reduced the planned contract volume for the eighth generation liquor in certain channels, particularly focusing on specialty stores and channel operators. The company is also piloting a direct distribution model in 20 cities, including Beijing and Shanghai [4][6]. - The management aims to optimize contract volumes based on the financial strength and capabilities of distributors, while also expanding into emerging markets and enhancing e-commerce channels [6][10]. Marketing and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on innovative marketing activities, including events like the "Wufens Festival" and plans for sports marketing in the future. There is an emphasis on building a membership system to enhance brand loyalty among consumers [6][10]. - Wuliangye is prioritizing the banquet market, reporting double-digit growth in both the number of banquet events and bottle openings in the first half of the year, maintaining a strong position in the thousand-yuan price segment [10].

6月20日，五粮液（000858）2024年度股东大会在四川宜宾召开，五粮液集团（股份）公司党委书记、 董事长曾从钦，五粮液股份公司党委副书记、副董事长、总经理华涛等高管出席，同时吸引了数十家机 构及数百名投资者参与现场会议，知名私募投资人林园也现身会场。 "当前白酒消费深刻变革，消费年轻化、场景日常化、品质悦已化、渠道数字化、价值情感化等趋势变 量交织共振。"曾从钦表示，要以自身发展的确定性应对外部环境的不确定性。 重构白酒消费"人、货、场"规律 当前，中国白酒行业整体增速放缓，面临多重挑战。同时，白酒企业分化加剧，"马太效应"进一步显 现，区域集中度持续提升。 曾从钦表示，当前，白酒行业已经真正进入全面深度调整的"深水区"。从行业发展规律来看，白酒行业 历经了10年黄金期（2003—2012年）、深度调整期（2013—2015年）、结构性繁荣期（2016—2023年） 和当前的再次深度调整期（2024年至今），呈现出波浪式前进和螺旋式上升的行业发展规律。 无论产业如何演变和调整，都要清晰地看到白酒产业的文化载体特性、情感表达属性、精神寄托属性始 终没有改变。因此，人民对美好生活的向往就是白酒产业最大的机遇 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月20日 金融工程日报 A 股午后震荡下行，银行股批量新高、白酒超跌反弹 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250620) 规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中 上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。银行、交通运 输、食品饮料、非银、家电行业表现较好，计算机、传媒、国防军工、石油 石化、综合金融行业表现较差。白酒、水利水电建设、光刻机、长三角自贸 区、保险精选等概念表现较好，蔚来汽车、拼多多合作商、Kimi、多模态模 型、短剧游戏等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 51 只股票涨停，有 21 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 0.66%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-3.11%。今日封板率 75%，较前日提升 16%，连板率 23%，较前日提升 7%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250619 两融余额为 18209 亿元，其中融资余额 18092 亿元，融券余额 117 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 8.5%。 折溢价：20250619 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是中证 2000ETF ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 在2023年底全球经销商大会上，古井贡酒吹响"冲向300亿、奋进新征程"的号角，但那成了绝唱，后续再也不听不到300亿这个目标数字；2024年古井贡近些 年首次没有实现"精准"增长计划，且在年报中对2025年也仅给出一个模糊的"营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长"的营收计划。 论业绩，古井贡酒算是当前白酒赛道除茅台外"最靓的仔"，2024年营收和净利分别同比增长16.41%、20.22%；25年Q1营收和净利增速仍保持双位数增长， 分别为10.38%和12.84%，占了行业第二和第一的位置。 而且，过去古井贡酒凭借国资背景其实在省内找不到真正的对手（老对手口子窖和迎驾贡酒都是民营企业），但新"禁酒令"实际上对地方"政商酒"会造成深 远影响。 但有业内人士认为，古井贡酒的高增还是通过给渠道压货完成，增长不够健康。这看起来有些道理，复盘古井贡过往的增长，其以"年份原浆"打开次高端市 场，坚持深度分销在徽酒里断层第一，虽然未能成功全国化，但在行业下行周期已表现很亮眼。 所以未来古井贡酒是增长还是下滑的核心在3点，首先是产品能不能打（品牌力）；如果相对较弱，是否 ...

Market Performance - The liquor concept index rose by 0.83%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 28 stocks increasing in value [1] - Notable gainers included Huangtai Liquor, which hit the daily limit, and other stocks like Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinzongzi Liquor, and Zhongrui Co., which rose by 7.19%, 5.67%, and 5.42% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.559 billion yuan, with 30 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2] - Leading the net inflow was Kweichow Moutai with 357 million yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu with net inflows of 341 million yuan, 218 million yuan, and 205 million yuan respectively [2] Stock Performance - Stocks with the highest net inflow ratios included Huangtai Liquor at 30.18%, Luzhou Laojiao at 17.06%, and Yiyaton at 15.50% [3] - Kweichow Moutai had a slight increase of 0.19% with a turnover rate of 0.28% and a net inflow of 357.21 million yuan [4] - Other notable performers included Luzhou Laojiao with a 2.78% increase and a turnover rate of 1.20%, and Wuliangye with a 1.94% increase and a turnover rate of 0.76% [4] Decliners - The stocks with the largest declines included Liujin Technology, Ju Li Suo Ju, and *ST Yedao, which fell by 5.26%, 3.01%, and 2.68% respectively [1]

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PET铜箔 | 2.09 | 可燃冰 | -4.14 | | 光刻胶 | 1.45 | 脑机接口 | -3.34 | | BC电池 | 1.13 | 短剧游戏 | -3.07 | | 钙钛矿电池 | 1.06 | 智谱AI | -3.06 | | 航运概念 | 1.02 | 快手概念 | -2.99 | | 白酒概念 | 0.83 | MLOps概念 | -2.97 | | 兵装重组概念 | 0.80 | 华为盘古 | -2.80 | | 先进封装 | 0.79 | 财税数字化 | -2.79 | | 石墨电极 | 0.65 | 云办公 | -2.66 | | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | 0.64 | 小红书概念 | -2.53 | 资金面上看，今日脑机接口概念板块获主力资金净流出5.46亿元，其中，23股获主力资金净流出，7股 主力资金净流出超3000万元，净流出资金居首的是汉威科技，今日主力资金净流出1.33亿元，净流出资 金居前的还有创新医疗、汤姆猫、诚 ...

需求端：开瓶率夯实消费地基 文/王芮 近期，随着"618"线上大促开启，部分电商平台飞天茅台展示价格出现松动，引发市场关注。然而，深 入线下渠道的核心腹地，却可见另一番景象：广州等多个地区的经销商与终端零售商反馈，2025年飞天 茅台成交价稳居2100元/瓶左右，部分市场零售价更普遍维持在2200元/瓶左右。一位烟酒店负责人直 言："客户认的就是这个品牌，需求一直很稳。" 线上补贴价迷雾之下，多位白酒行业分析人士点破实质——电商平台部分低价实为引流噱头，其背后 是"展示价+平台补贴"的复杂组合，商家实际到账金额仍能达2260元/瓶左右。这种非正常销售的低价既 不可持续，亦无法撼动茅台线下流通主力格局。白酒行业周期性淡季中的价格波动本是常态，而茅台作 为龙头，其一举一动被置于放大镜下审视，自然更易引发讨论波澜。 同样来自广州的经销商则表示，"目前最受市场欢迎的还是500ml的飞天酒，因为它是飞天中最经典的一 款产品，无论是收藏、投资、送礼等，它的属性是没有变的，目前我们飞天的库存不是很多。"一位贵 州经销商也表示："飞天茅台的开瓶率还是不错的。" 聚焦飞天茅台消费场景来看，宴请需求刚性持续，商务往来持续活跃，婚 ...

Concept Performance - The PET copper foil concept saw a daily increase of 2.09%, while the combustible ice concept experienced a decline of 4.14% [1] - Other notable increases included photolithography at 1.45% and BC battery at 1.13%, while short drama games fell by 3.07% [1] Low-E Glass Concept - The Low-E glass concept had a net inflow of 0.45 billion yuan, with seven stocks receiving net inflows, led by Wanshun New Materials with 20.91 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the Low-E glass concept included Wanshun New Materials, Hainan Development, and Qibin Group, with respective net inflows of 20.91 million yuan, 17.66 million yuan, and 13.23 million yuan [1] Stock Performance - As of June 20, the Low-E glass concept increased by 0.64%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with Wanshun New Materials, Hainan Development, and Qibin Group leading the gains at 4.68%, 2.64%, and 1.62% respectively [3] - Decliners in the Low-E glass concept included XinSai Co., Sanxia New Materials, and AnCai High-Tech, with declines of 2.53%, 1.00%, and 0.22% respectively [3] Fund Flow Ratios - Fund inflow ratios were highest for Qibin Group, Wanshun New Materials, and Hainan Development, with net inflow rates of 11.05%, 7.29%, and 5.62% respectively [2][4] - Wanshun New Materials had a trading volume of 20.91 million yuan and a turnover rate of 7.81% [2]