来源：滚动播报 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，他已告诉特朗普，如果被提名接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席， 他将接受这一职位。哈塞特补充说，他希望在12月的政策会议上实施更大幅度的降息。哈塞特是特朗普 点名的候选人之一。他表示，对鲍威尔在长期政府停摆和好于预期的通胀数据背景下没有采取更激进的 降息感到惊讶。哈塞特说："我认为总统觉得利率可以更低，而我对此表示赞同。"他指出，自己认为有 理由进行50个基点的降息，但预计美联储只会降息25个基点。哈塞特认为政府关门每持续一周，美国 GDP就会减少约150亿美元，并指出9月的通胀数据低于预期。 ...

Core Insights - India's inflation rate dropped to a historic low of 0.25% in October, driven by a significant decline in food prices, reinforcing market expectations for accelerated interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.25%, which is below the market forecast of 0.4% and marks the lowest level since the current statistical series began in 2012 [1][3]. - Food prices experienced a substantial decline of 5.02% year-on-year, representing the largest drop on record, influenced by a high base from the previous year, improved supply conditions due to abundant rainfall, and tax reforms that reduced essential goods costs [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The soft inflation data has significantly heightened expectations for monetary policy easing, with markets anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in December and further cuts in February [3][5]. - Since February, the Reserve Bank has reduced the benchmark repo rate by 100 basis points, although it paused rate cuts in October [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Reserve Bank of India has revised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2026 from 3.1% to 2.6%, indicating that actual inflation may be weaker than previously anticipated and well below the 4% policy target [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the inflation rate could fall below 2% this fiscal year, creating favorable conditions for a rate cut in December and further reductions in February [6].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's indicates that the Bank of Korea may delay its next interest rate cut to the first quarter of 2026 due to high household debt, rising housing prices, and resilient economic data [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Recent inflation rebound and better-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter suggest that the Bank of Korea does not have an urgent need to further ease monetary policy [1]. - The unemployment rate in South Korea was 2.6% in October, showing stability in the labor market, while manufacturing employment has recently started to recover after four months of decline [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The last monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Korea for this year is scheduled for November 27, with market attention on whether another rate cut will occur [1]. - The current seven-day repurchase rate is maintained at 2.5%, with four rate cuts implemented since October 2024, but the easing was paused starting July 2025 [1]. Risks to Financial Stability - High levels of household debt and real estate prices remain significant risks to South Korea's financial stability, despite government measures to restrict housing credit [1]. - The policy stance remains cautious regarding further easing, as there is concern that it could exacerbate asset bubbles, particularly in the Greater Seoul area [1].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged by $114.57, a 2.86% increase, closing at $4115.48, with intraday highs reaching the highest level since October 24 [1] - Following the previous day's surge, gold continued to rise, hovering around $4142 during European trading hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. Senate passed a key funding bill with a vote of 60-40, which aims to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [3] - The bill will fund the federal government until January 30 and includes provisions to prevent further layoffs during the shutdown [3] - The probability of the government shutdown ending this week is estimated at 88% according to Polymarket [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 65.6%, with a 34.4% chance of maintaining current rates [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on future rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut in December [6] - The reopening of the government is expected to lead to a surge of delayed economic data, which will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making [3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the recent market volatility may be influenced by three main factors: rising expectations for a stronger dollar, Trump's proposal for $2000 "dividends" to citizens, and potential shifts in institutional investment strategies [8] - Despite short-term uncertainties, firms like Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook on U.S. equities, predicting strong corporate earnings growth will drive the market higher by 2026 [8] Group 5: Military Actions and International Relations - The U.S. military conducted strikes against two ships suspected of drug trafficking, resulting in six deaths, as part of a broader strategy against Venezuela [10] - Analysts view this military action as a means of exerting pressure on the Venezuelan government, despite official claims of combating drug trafficking [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains with the Dow Jones up 381.53 points (0.81%) closing at 47,368.63, the Nasdaq rising 522.64 points (2.27%) to 23,527.17, and the S&P 500 increasing by 103.63 points (1.54%) to 6,832.43 [1] - Major tech stocks performed well, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up over 6%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) up 5.7%, Tesla (TSLA.US) up over 3%, and Google (GOOG.US) up 4% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.25%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) surging 16% and Baidu (BIDU.US) increasing by 5% [1] European Market - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX30 up 407.92 points (1.73%) to 23,963.66, the UK's FTSE 100 up 103.35 points (1.07%) to 9,785.92, and France's CAC40 up 111.55 points (1.40%) to 8,061.73 [2] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 43 cents, closing at $64.06 per barrel (0.68% rise) [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin rose by 0.92% to $105,730.9, while Ethereum fell by 0.89% to $3,551.68 [3] Precious Metals - Spot gold increased by over 2.87% to $4,115.75, with Morgan Stanley predicting gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year due to continued buying by central banks in emerging markets [4] - The report indicates that gold prices may reach $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, reflecting a more than 25% increase from current levels [4] Company News - Coinbase (COIN.US) plans to launch a new platform allowing selected investors early access to new cryptocurrencies before they trade on its main exchange, using an algorithm to allocate tokens [8] - C3.ai (AI.US) is exploring potential sale options after the resignation of its founder and CEO Thomas Siebel due to health issues, with the company's stock down over 54% year-to-date [9] - Wells Fargo reported a significant decline in Tesla's (TSLA.US) October deliveries, estimating a year-over-year drop of 23%, attributed to the end of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies and increased competition in overseas markets [9]

集体大涨！ 受隔夜美股科技股大涨带动，日本、韩国股市今日（11月11日）早间也大幅走高。截至记者发稿， 韩国综合指数涨超2%，日经225指数涨超1%。芯片股集体大涨，SK海力士、三星电子涨近5%，瑞萨电 子涨超4%。另外，软银集团涨超5%。 A股方面，三大指数集体高开。沪指高开0.13%，深证成指高开0.36%，创业板指高开0.58%。香港 恒生指数开盘涨0.37%，恒生科技指数涨0.79%，小鹏汽车涨超9%，百度集团涨超3%，赣锋锂业 (002460)涨超2%。 美股三大指数周一（11月10日）集体上涨。截至当天收盘，纳指涨幅超过2%。大型科技股集体走 强，英伟达涨近6%，谷歌涨近4%，微软涨近2%。 关于降息，多名美联储官员有最新表态。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，强于预期的通胀数据和就 业市场持续疲软的迹象表明需要在12月进行连续第三次降息。米兰称，12月降息50个基点更为合适，至 少也应降25个基点。不过，美联储官员Musalem强调，官员们需要谨慎对待进一步降息。 日韩股市大幅上涨 今日早盘，日本股市高开高走，截至发稿时，日经225指数涨幅超过1%。分析人士指出，日本股市 的走高，一方面受到隔夜美股上 ...

韩国股市也大幅上涨，截至记者发稿，韩国综合指数涨幅达到2.7%，SK海力士、三星电子涨近5%，韩 美半导体涨超2%。 受隔夜美股科技股大涨带动，日本、韩国股市今日（11月11日）早间也大幅走高。截至记者发稿，韩国 综合指数涨超2%，日经225指数涨超1%。芯片股集体大涨，SK海力士、三星电子涨近5%，瑞萨电子涨 超4%。另外，软银集团涨超5%。 A股方面，三大指数集体高开。沪指高开0.13%，深证成指高开0.36%，创业板指高开0.58%。香港恒生 指数开盘涨0.37%，恒生科技指数涨0.79%，小鹏汽车涨超9%，百度集团涨超3%，赣锋锂业（002460） 涨超2%。 美股三大指数周一（11月10日）集体上涨。截至当天收盘，纳指涨幅超过2%。大型科技股集体走强， 英伟达涨近6%，谷歌涨近4%，微软涨近2%。 关于降息，多名美联储官员有最新表态。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，强于预期的通胀数据和就业市 场持续疲软的迹象表明需要在12月进行连续第三次降息。米兰称，12月降息50个基点更为合适，至少也 应降25个基点。不过，美联储官员Musalem强调，官员们需要谨慎对待进一步降息。 日韩股市大幅上涨 今日早盘，日本 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 to 40, which may end the 40-day government shutdown, pending House approval and Trump's signature [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested a minimum interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December, with a 50 basis point cut being more appropriate to prevent further economic slowdown [1] - Gold prices rose significantly, surpassing the $4,100 mark, with potential upward movement towards $4,150 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The U.S. fleet has heavily gathered in the Caribbean, targeting Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally at 303 billion barrels [3] - OPEC+ plans to maintain slight production increases in December but will pause increases starting in Q1 next year, signaling cautious production adjustments [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown negatively impacts oil demand, making it challenging for oil prices to rise [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices rebounded significantly, with a continuous upward trend since November 5, indicating a higher probability of stabilization [5] - Key resistance levels for copper are between $5.15 and $5.20, while support is noted around the $5.02 range [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows wide fluctuations with an upward trend, maintaining a trading range between 49,500 and 51,500 [5] - The focus is on the breakout direction from this range, with 50,700 serving as a critical line for bullish and bearish sentiment [5]

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 因美国政府有望结束停摆，市场风险偏好回升。隔夜美股主要指数集体上涨，此前承压的科 技板块集体反攻。多位美联储官员就降息 发表 讲话。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰 则 表示，为防止经济动能进一步衰减，美联储应在12月继续降息， 且幅度至少为25个基点，但50个基点更为合适。 美股集体收涨 美国政府停摆或将结束 美东时间11月10日（周一），美国参议院就结束政府停摆迈出关键一步，市场风险偏好回 升，美股三大指数集体收涨。 | 美股指数 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 47368.63 | 23527.17 | 6832.43 | | +381.53 +0.81% | +522.63 +2.27% | +103.63 +1.54% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 8238.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | +181.08 +2.25% | 0.00 0.00% | 0.00 0.00% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].