Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's tariffs on American consumers, highlighting that while the administration claims these tariffs support domestic industries, they may actually harm consumers through increased prices, reduced choices, and lower quality products [1][4][5]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Choices - Tariffs have led to a reduction in the variety of products available to American consumers, forcing them to settle for less preferred domestic brands due to fewer imported options [4]. - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a lack of alternatives for essential goods, such as coffee, which is primarily imported and faces significant tariff threats, potentially leading to a decrease in domestic consumption [4]. Group 2: Quality and Cost Implications - The quality of products may decline as manufacturers are compelled to source from less optimal suppliers due to tariffs, resulting in consumers paying the same price for inferior goods [4]. - The financial burden of tariffs disproportionately affects low-income households, which spend a larger portion of their income on essential goods that are subject to higher tariffs compared to luxury items [5]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Over time, the negative effects of tariffs manifest as fewer choices, lower quality, and increased costs for consumers, ultimately harming ordinary American families the most [5].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01% to 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.37%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 1.62% at 25538.07 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.48% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.82%[1] - The total trading volume in Hong Kong surged to 3330.666 million HKD[1] Trade and Tariff Developments - Trump indicated that the reciprocal tariff rates would range from 15% to 50%, with most EU products expected to have a tariff rate set at 15%[1][15] - The EU and the US are reportedly moving towards a trade agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on most products[15] Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - Tesla reported a 12% decline in revenue to 22.5 billion USD, marking the largest quarterly drop in at least a decade, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.40 USD, slightly below analyst expectations[15] - Tesla's gross margin remains above average expectations, indicating resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges[15] International Relations - Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with EU leaders in Beijing, with discussions expected to focus on climate cooperation, although no joint statement is planned[15] - The meeting highlights ongoing tensions and divisions between China and the EU, despite previous signs of thawing relations[15]

Group 1 - The chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Conway, indicates that tariffs are expected to lead to weaker export demand [1] - CPI data aligns with the expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [1] - Inflation is projected to reach around 2% by early 2026, with an expected inflation rate of approximately 3% by mid-2025 [1] Group 2 - There is potential for interest rate cuts if price pressures ease, with readiness to adjust the cash rate as necessary [2] - Tariffs are viewed as a negative shock to the New Zealand economy [2] - U.S. tariffs are expected to lower export prices from New Zealand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that tariffs will lead to a slowdown in the global economy and global demand [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to negatively impact global economic growth [1] - The slowdown in global demand is a significant concern for various industries [1] - The implications of tariffs may affect trade relationships and economic stability worldwide [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - **Asset trends**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - **Iron ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - **Soda ash**: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - **Industrial silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - **PX**: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - **Ethylene glycol**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - **PP**: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - **PL**: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - **Urea**: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - **Palm oil**: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - **Corn**: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, with prices closing at $9,930.5 per ton, up $11 or 0.11% [1] - COMEX copper prices increased by 1.84% to $5.8265 per pound, with a record high of $5.93 earlier, driven by the anticipation of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the US starting August 1 [3] - The market sentiment improved following the US-Japan trade agreement, contributing to a rise in global stock markets and increasing investor interest in potential US-China trade agreements [3] Group 2 - Concerns over copper supply surplus persisted, with a reported surplus of 272,000 tons in the first five months of the year, leading to pressure on the market [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $7.5 or 0.28%, closing at $2,651.0 per ton, marking the worst performance among base metals on that day [4] - LME three-month tin prices rose by $945 or 2.79%, closing at $34,853.0 per ton, indicating strong demand despite overall market pressures [5]

微信编辑 | 七三 推荐阅读 线下断货！马云西湖夜骑带火同款，旗舰店每人限购2辆 2025.07. 24 本文字数：153，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间23日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至50%的简 单关税。 特朗普还说，美国正在与欧盟进行认真谈判，如果他们同意向美国企业开放，美国将允许他们支付较 低的关税。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the looming "long-term high interest rate era" as the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, indicating significant pressure on the Federal Reserve and its leadership [1] - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has begun, with speculation surrounding economist Hassett, casting uncertainty over Powell's future [1] - Dallas Fed President Logan warns of potential stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s, emphasizing the need for a restrictive interest rate of 4.25% for at least 6 to 12 months [1] Group 2 - The latest June inflation report shows a CPI increase of 2.7%, the highest in four months, with core CPI at 2.9%, significantly exceeding the Fed's 2% target [2] - Political pressure mounts as former President Trump calls for a 300 basis point rate cut, highlighting the financial burden of high interest rates on U.S. refinancing costs [2] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for immediate rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure, while others are cautious due to inflation concerns [2] Group 3 - Fed Governor Waller presents three arguments for rate cuts: tariffs causing one-time price increases, the need for a neutral monetary policy, and the stagnation of private sector job growth [3] - The U.S. government faces a record spending of $7 trillion, with limited options to reduce debt interest payments, emphasizing the urgency for potential rate cuts [5] - The global trend of central banks, influenced by Trump's trade policies, indicates a likelihood of rate cuts across developed economies, with the Fed possibly delaying until Q4 [7] Group 4 - The article discusses the implications of rising Treasury yields and inflation on market dynamics, with significant movements in the dollar index and gold prices following retail sales data [5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under unprecedented political pressure, as decisions on interest rates become intertwined with political power struggles [7] - The article concludes with a reflection on the potential for a "man-made prosperity" as financial decisions increasingly serve as tools of political influence [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs imposed by President Trump on various countries and the ongoing negotiations with the EU and Japan. Group 1: US Tariff Policies - President Trump announced plans to impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries [2] - The US is negotiating with the EU, offering lower tariffs if the EU opens its markets to American businesses [3] Group 2: EU Response to US Tariffs - The EU is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations, planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of US goods if talks fail [5] - The EU's initial countermeasures will combine previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of US goods with an additional list covering €720 billion worth of goods, pending approval from EU member states [6] Group 3: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US and Japan are focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, with Japan agreeing to increase its import of US rice by 75% and purchase $8 billion worth of US goods [10] - Japan has committed to buying 100 Boeing aircraft as part of the trade agreement [11] - Trump stated that Japan will open its market to various sectors, including automobiles and agricultural products, with a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% [14]

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