西班牙6月份调和通胀率从5月份的2.0%升至2.2%，市场此前预期为维持在2.0%。该数据可能加剧市场 猜测，即欧洲央行正接近降息周期的尾声。 欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯表示，欧洲央行有望实现其设定的2%通胀目标。 新华财经北京6月27日电欧洲交易时段盘初，美元指数元徘徊在三年半以来的最低点附近，市场密切关 注美国货币政策的变化。欧元、英镑汇率守在隔夜触及2021年底以来最高水平的位置附近。此外，即将 到来的关税最后期限，进一步为市场增添了紧张气氛。美联储美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者传闻、市场对 鸽派政策的预期，以及地缘政治局势的缓和，共同构成了当前外汇市场的复杂格局。 美元指数在2025年的表现持续低迷，年初至今已累计下跌10%。26日，美元指数一度跌至自2022年3月 以来的最低点96.99。亚洲市场交易时段，美元指数整个6月预计下跌2%，大概率连续第六个月录得月 线下跌。 日元和瑞郎也对美元展现出不同程度的强势。特别是瑞郎兑美元汇率接近十年来的最强水平，显示了投 资者对于避险货币的需求增加以及美元整体弱势的局面。 欧元 法国和西班牙6月份通胀数据超出预期后，欧元兑美元扩大涨幅。欧元兑美元盘中高点触及1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Composite Index has surpassed its previous high from December 2024, reaching a new historical peak [1] Group 1 - The Nasdaq Composite Index has achieved a significant milestone by breaking its previous record, indicating strong market performance [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2%, currently reported at $3260.99 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in U.S. personal spending data for May, which has led to a slight decrease in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping by 0.16% and currently standing at 97.12 [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index DXY has decreased by 10 points, currently at 97.15 [1] - The core PCE in the US for May has risen more than expected [1]

Group 1 - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has intensified, with recent economic data suggesting a growing necessity for such cuts despite previous statements from Chairman Powell indicating no urgent need [1] - There is a notable divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, with no extreme hawkish views present, indicating a consensus on the need for some form of easing [1][11] - The market is increasingly leaning towards a dovish interpretation of the Fed's stance, leading to a parallel downward shift of approximately 10 basis points across the yield curve [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic momentum index has seen a year-over-year growth rate decline since May, aligning closely with the movements of the U.S. dollar index, suggesting a reasonable feedback loop between the dollar's performance and the economic fundamentals [2] - Following the easing of tariffs, there has been a slight recovery in corporate capital expenditure expectations, although they remain at levels comparable to last September, indicating a slow recovery [7] - The recent comments from Fed officials have further solidified the certainty of potential rate cuts, with non-farm payroll data expected to play a crucial role in determining the path of these cuts [11]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 美国贸易数据不尽如人意，一季度 GDP 继续被下调，但是 5 月耐用品订单数据 积极。地缘方面协调停火和重建，避险情绪消退，价格走低。但是中长期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【760-790】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 主要国家经济前景面临收缩风险，白银情绪或受到影响。目前，金银比价目前 回归正常区间，目前白银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白 | | | | 银的品种特性弹性较大，操作上做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普威胁提前任命新美联储主席，降息预期走高，美元指数走弱，铜冲击 8 万关 口，建议前期铜多单继续持有。沪铜关注区间【79000，81000】 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 宏观和板块情绪积极，海内外锌库存去化，锌延续反弹，震荡走强，长期看， 锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200，22800】 | | 铅 | 反弹 | 国内原生铅部分企业检修，再 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with expectations of continued low volatility in the short term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years, dropping below the 97 mark for the first time since March 2022, while the euro has reached its highest level against the dollar since September 2021 [2]. - The RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 7.16 mark, marking a new high since mid-November of the previous year [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the US dollar index has declined by approximately 10%, while the onshore RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.8% and the offshore RMB by over 2.3% [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The expectation of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is bolstered by recent economic data, including a 0.5% decline in the annualized real GDP for Q1, which is the first contraction in three years [2]. - The Chinese economy has shown stability, with steady growth in industrial output and retail sales, contributing to the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent performance of the Chinese capital market has led to increased cross-border capital inflows, further supporting the RMB [5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated plans to introduce more financial policies related to foreign exchange, aiming to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market and safeguard economic and financial security [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between the US dollar and US equities is influenced by multiple factors, including growth differentials and monetary policy, rather than being linear [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts in the U.S. as economic data signals a weakening labor market, despite the Federal Reserve's previous stance that the labor market is not in distress [1][3][11]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift towards a more dovish outlook, with discussions around the conditions for potential rate cuts intensifying [3][14]. - The U.S. economic momentum index has fallen back to levels seen in September of the previous year, aligning closely with the trends in the U.S. dollar index [4]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has declined, further confirming the cooling trend in the labor market [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Officials emphasize that tariffs do not solely drive inflation; rather, both demand and supply-side factors are suppressing price increases [5]. - Analysis of inflation changes in goods with HS-4 codes shows a weak correlation between tariff increases and CPI growth, indicating limited impact on overall inflation levels [5]. - Technological advancements in various sectors, such as toys and electronics, contribute to long-term price declines, counteracting the one-time effects of tariffs [5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Following a period of recession-level expectations, U.S. corporate capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecasts have shown some recovery, although they remain at levels similar to those in September of the previous year [10]. Market Sentiment - The market is increasingly pricing in a faster or larger rate cut, although this sentiment has not been fully captured in market pricing [14]. - The recent statements from Fed officials have increased the certainty of rate cuts, with a consensus emerging around the potential for a downward shift in economic conditions [14].