后台有留言，讨论关税战对创投行业的影响。中短期内，我觉得会有一些利空的影响。 但是长期，我认为无非就是全球贸易秩序重塑，漂亮国带自己的朋友圈，我们带我们的朋友圈。然后因 为我们是出口为主，所以我们建立自己的贸易圈，难度会比漂亮国大。 大就大呗。我们历史上，近代史上，面临的一个个挑战，就没有小的。 而贸易秩序重塑的过程，有没有可能反而会对我们的创投行业带来一些新的机会。 关于对创投行业的长期影响，我可能没有很强的宏观经济分析的能力，我想分享三个小故事。 （一） 上世纪末，漂亮国时任总统克林顿，邀请我方重新加入 WTO 。 是克林顿真把我们当朋友吗？ nono 为什么没想到？ 因为他们不理解，我们的劳动人民，为了创造美好的明天，而可以承受多少的辛苦， 忍受多少的劳累。 （二） 很多业内传言，这次关税战之后，很快还会有毛衣战，主要针对的就是我国半导体产业。希望以毛衣战 为筹码，逼迫我国对关税战妥协。 没事，我们的半导体产业已经被打压很多年了，不带怕的。 知乎上有很多帖子分享过，湾湾如何用了差不多一两代人的工程师，把湾湾的半导体产业搭建起来，把 半导体的制造从漂亮国抢过来，从日韩抢过来。 我国真正发力自己的半导体产业 ...

后台有留言，讨论关税战对创投行业的影响。中短期内，我觉得会有一些利空的影响。 但是长期，我认为无非就是全球贸易秩序重塑，漂亮国带自己的朋友圈，我们带我们的朋友圈。然后因 为我们是出口为主，所以我们建立自己的贸易圈，难度会比漂亮国大。 大就大呗。我们历史上，近代史上，面临的一个个挑战，就没有小的。 而贸易秩序重塑的过程，有没有可能反而会对我们的创投行业带来一些新的机会。 关于对创投行业的长期影响，我可能没有很强的宏观经济分析的能力，我想分享三个小故事。 （一） 上世纪末，漂亮国时任总统克林顿，邀请我方重新加入 WTO 。 是克林顿真把我们当朋友吗？ nono 我个人眼中，当时漂亮国的考量是：用我们的庞大人口，为欧美生产廉价商品，转移漂亮国的通胀； 同时，我们加入以美元为核心的世界经济体系，也有助于巩固美元的全球地位。 有很多坊间传闻说，克林顿完全没有想到，我们用了大概 20 年，就把光伏、新能源等等非常多的行业 干到了全球第一，完全没想到我们可以对漂亮国构成威胁。 为什么没想到？ 因为他们不理解，我们的劳动人民，为了创造美好的明天，而可以承受多少的辛苦， 忍受多少的劳累。 （二） 很多业内传言，这次关税战之后， ...

兄弟们，我告诉大家，关税战一定会在两三周之内有巨大的反转。为什么我敢这么猜测呢？我来给大家讲讲。 还有一点大家要明白，特朗普这么做，不仅仅是针对外部，最重要的是他在与美联储以及华尔街之间进行博弈。特朗普代表的是美国那些实体制造业大佬， 而拜登那边主要是华尔街大佬的势力。美联储在美国是一个比较特殊的存在。特朗普想逼着美联储降息，可美联储现在一直不降息，他们在观望。美联储在 看关税政策出来之后，对经济是否有影响，如果美国经济依然强劲，他们就可以顶着不降息；或者关税政策出来后，美国通货膨胀快速上涨，他们也可以不 降。所以，美联储在观望，特朗普在观望，华尔街大佬们也在观望。 特朗普已经承认自己是故意搞崩全球股市。大家看这件事，其实很明显，有资本大佬在配合特朗普的关税政策抛空全球股市。因为关税政策很早就出来了， 全球早有预期，可为什么政策落地、发酵了几天之后，全球股市才开始崩盘，而且是在中国反制之后才开始崩盘呢？因为资本市场在等一个理由，特朗普也 在等一个理由，当中国反制，贸易战升级，全球股市就崩了。 但是反过来想想，中美目前加关税这件事，对世界经济的影响真有那么大吗？我觉得没有那么大。很多东西该买的还是得买，中美每年 ...

2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的"最低基准关税"，并对部分贸易 伙伴征收更高关税，其中对我国额外加征34%的对等关税，同时计划终止从中国内地和中国香港输美小额包裹的免税待遇。我国也快速反应进行反 制，4月4日国务院宣布自4月10日起，对原产于美国的进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税。4月3日以来，全球股市陷入了自由落 体式下跌，A股也未能幸免，主要股指均在4月迎来大幅下跌。截止4月7日，上证指数和深证成指分别下跌7.17%和10.85%，代表大盘股、中盘股 和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别下跌7.66%、9.74%和11.73%。 图表1：4月以来A股市场主要股指涨跌幅 数据来源：晨星Direct； 数据截止日期：2025年4月7日 在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，债市成为了投资者寻求稳定收益的"避风港"。同时，受关税不确定性冲击，经济下行风险有所增加，提升了国内 市场对宽松货币政策的预期，推动国内债市大幅走强。 截止4月7日，10年期国债收益率自月初以来已下行19bps至1.63%,3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption in China as a response to external pressures such as the U.S. tariff war, positioning it as a key strategy for economic transformation and sustainable growth [9][30][31]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff War and China's Response - The U.S. has implemented a significant tariff policy, imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to a total of 54% when combined with previous rates, which is expected to decrease global trade volume by 5% and negatively impact U.S. economic growth by 0.8% [11][12]. - In response, China has announced countermeasures, including additional tariffs on U.S. imports, while emphasizing the need to maintain its legitimate rights and promote high-level opening-up [12][30]. Group 2: Importance of Consumption in China's Economy - Consumption is identified as the starting and ending point of economic circulation, with current issues stemming from insufficient consumer spending, which is low in GDP contribution [15][30]. - The Chinese government has prioritized boosting consumption as a core economic task, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and transition from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven economy [14][16]. Group 3: Strategies to Counteract Tariff Impacts - A proposed strategy includes issuing over 1 trillion yuan in universal consumption vouchers and significantly lowering interest rates to stimulate consumer spending and improve living standards [18][19]. - The issuance of consumption vouchers is highlighted as an effective short-term measure to directly increase disposable income and stimulate demand, with a multiplier effect greater than traditional infrastructure investments [18][30]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Transformation - The article outlines several long-term strategies for economic transformation, including shifting fiscal policy from infrastructure investment to social welfare support, innovating monetary policy to promote consumption, and reforming income distribution to enhance disposable income [23][24][25]. - It stresses the need for structural changes in the economy to create new demand and support the growth of the private sector, which is crucial for driving consumption [26][27]. Group 5: Consumption Prosperity Plan - The proposed consumption prosperity plan should amount to 10-15% of GDP, translating to a scale of 10-15 trillion yuan over three years, aimed at stimulating economic activity without specifying usage [28][30]. - Improving social security for low-income groups is essential to enhance their consumption propensity, thereby contributing to overall economic growth [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF market is experiencing significant trading activity and inflows, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in this sector [1][2][6]. Trading Activity - The company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.02% to a price of 105.64 yuan, while the national development bond ETF (159651) showed mixed trading with a price of 105.77 yuan [1]. - The national treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) rose by 0.04%, reaching 117.16 yuan [1]. - The company bond ETF had a turnover rate of 15.82% with a transaction volume of 2.04 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume for the company bond ETF was 2.527 billion yuan [1]. Fund Flows - The company bond ETF saw a net inflow of 1.166 billion yuan over four days, with a peak single-day inflow of 527 million yuan [2]. - The national development bond ETF attracted a total of 69.658 million yuan in net inflows over the same period [2]. - The national treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years recorded a net inflow of 31.368 million yuan over nine trading days [2]. Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the company bond ETF reached 12.894 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant increase in size, growing by 49.713 million yuan over the past week [1]. - The national development bond ETF also saw an increase of 2.142 million shares in the past month, ranking it among the top in its category [1]. Market Conditions - The bond market has largely priced in high tariffs, with future trends remaining uncertain [6]. - The yield on government bonds has rebounded significantly, reflecting a shift away from pricing in financial crisis risks [6]. - The RMB has depreciated against a basket of currencies, with the USD/RMB exchange rate reaching 7.4, which may limit monetary easing [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Bearish allocation, with an overall cautious and bearish outlook, but potential support if domestic stimulus policies exceed expectations; otherwise, the market will face further pressure if trade frictions worsen and economic expectations deteriorate [2] - Caustic Soda: Cautiously bearish, with cautious downward movement in the market [3] - Rubber: Bearish, with a negative outlook especially before the substantial change in tariff impact [4] - Urea: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by US tariff policies [6] - Methanol: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by tariff policies [7] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol, covering aspects such as price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic impacts. It provides investment outlooks and key points to watch for each product [2][3][4] Grouped Summaries PVC - On April 8, the closing price of the PVC main 05 contract was 4,907 yuan/ton (-22), the Changzhou market price was 4,800 yuan/ton (0), and the main basis was - 107 yuan/ton (+22). Long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints, with high inventory and over - supply. The market is bearish, mainly following the broader market, and is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars, US recession expectations, and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On April 8, the caustic soda main SH05 contract closed at 2,372 yuan/ton (-105). As of April 3, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 2.99% week - on - week and increased by 12.07% year - on - year. The market is cautiously bearish, with attention on factors such as Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [3] Rubber - On April 8, the rubber sector declined significantly. The market is currently macro - driven, with weak overseas demand due to tariffs. The fundamentals are weak, with increasing expectations of tapping, loose port inventory, and weakening raw materials. The rubber sector is bearish before the tariff impact changes substantially [4] Urea - The urea main contract closed down 2.91% at 1,804 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant with a slight decrease in daily output, and the cost is stable. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and industrial demand is stable. The inventory decreased, and there are concerns about price corrections due to US tariff policies [6] Methanol - The methanol main contract closed down 0.33% at 2,381 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is high, and the downstream methanol - to - olefins industry is stable. Both domestic and port inventories are decreasing. There are concerns about price corrections due to tariff policies [7]

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词风暴 熊 ) 昨夜，美股股市又经历了惊心动魄的一晚，主要新闻见闻君为大家总结如下： 美国财长贝森特称，正讨论优先与哪些地区达成关税协议。但白宫官员表示近期不会实施关税豁免，且确认高关税即将来袭。 美股巨震， 道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌 ，早盘涨超4%的纳指收跌超2%，"科技七姐妹"市值已从最高点下跌超过 5 万亿美元。 关税战有愈演愈烈之势，反对声音不断，衰退警告再响。 "马斯克圈子"难以接受高关税，马斯克也毫不掩饰的反对特朗普关税， 大骂白宫高级顾问纳瓦罗"真是个白痴"。 美国前财政部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）警告称， 关税或令美国衰退，失业人口恐增200万，美股料暴跌，B等生都知道。 高盛Peter Oppenheimer、Lilia Peytavin的策略团队发出了更为严峻的警告。他们认为，目前的股市抛售潮可能演变为一场持续时间更长的 周期性熊市，因为经济衰退风险正在攀升。 此外，周二美债市场再次遭遇剧烈抛售，10年期国债收益率飙升11个基点至4.3%， 过去两天这一指标已罕见大幅上升近30个基点。 这预示着可能出现类似2020年3 ...

当地时间4月8日下午，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗签署一项经济紧急法令，经济紧急法令将保护委内瑞拉免受 美国关税战的影响，保护和捍卫委内瑞拉国家经济的增长和发展。（央视新闻） ...

委内瑞拉总统："关税战"是美国经济自残行为 智通财经4月9日电，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗当地时间8日在社交媒体上发文称，美国针对全球发动的关税 贸易战，不管是短期，还是中长期都将产生负面效应，这是一场没有赢家的战争。马杜罗表示，"关税 战"是美国经济自残行为，美国不应该用这种方式来破坏全球经济和各国间相互依存的经贸联系，美国 试图以制裁全世界的方式让其他国家屈服。 ...