Group 1 - Gold prices surged, breaking the $4600 per ounce mark for the first time in January, with a cumulative increase of $280 in the month [1] - Silver prices also experienced a significant rise, increasing over 5% and surpassing $83 [1] - The A-share precious metals sector saw multiple stocks rise sharply, with notable increases including Xiaocheng Technology up over 6%, Hunan Silver up nearly 4%, and Shandong Gold up over 3% [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang reporting a price of ¥1429 per gram, an increase of ¥19 since January 10 [3] - The geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. non-farm payroll data have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in gold prices [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔稍早前发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年6月对美国国会参议院所作证词， 威胁对他提起刑事指控，并已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目的是就 美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月11日晚接受媒体采访时否认与美国司法部向美国 联邦储备委员会发出传票有关。他表示，"我对此一无所知"。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the criminal investigation initiated by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters [3] - The investigation includes an analysis of Powell's public statements and a review of expenditure records, approved by U.S. Attorney Janine Pirro, a long-time ally of Trump [3] - President Trump has expressed his dissatisfaction with Powell's performance, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, and has threatened legal action against him due to the management of the Fed building renovation, which he claims cost billions [7] Group 2 - Trump has indicated that he plans to announce Powell's successor in January 2026, as Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5] - Since taking office again in January 2025, Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [5] - Trump has criticized the Fed's recent interest rate cuts, suggesting that the latest cut could have been doubled, and has labeled Powell as "stubborn" [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to operate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, cost, and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely during the day, closing at 143,420 yuan/ton. Trading volume dropped significantly to 469,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 510,900 lots. Trading sentiment cooled significantly. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio slightly increased, and the warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,360 lots. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 3,420 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market Performance - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 140,000 yuan/ton. Price increases promoted upstream scattered orders, and downstream had rigid demand. When the futures price fell to the spot price range, downstream inquiries were active, and the increase in transactions drove up the spot price [2] 3.3 Supply - Side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lepidolite and recycling increased slightly. The total output increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [3] 3.4 Demand - Side Situation - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the output of SMM iron - lithium and ternary batteries decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% respectively week - on - week, with inventory destocking. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly, the sales and penetration rate of SMM new energy vehicles reached new highs, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3] 3.5 Inventory Situation - Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing signs of inventory accumulation for the first time. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [3] 3.6 Policy Factors - In 2026, policies such as automobile trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, Qinghai salt - lake industry plans, 14th Five - Year Plan for energy - storage, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed coordinated benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulations have been tightened. On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9, the reduction of the battery export tax - rebate policy may trigger short - term export rush demand [3]

美国总统特朗普当地时间1月11日晚接受媒体采访时否认与美国司法部向美国联邦储备委员会发出传票 有关。他表示，"我对此一无所知"。 编辑 ｜瑜见 美联储主席鲍威尔稍早前发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年6月对美国国会参议院所作证 词，威胁对他提起刑事指控，并已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目 的是就美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。 来源｜CCTV国际时讯 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔稍早前发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年6月对美国国会参议院所作证词， 威胁对他提起刑事指控，并已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目的是就 美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。 据CCTV国际时讯微博消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月11日晚接受媒体采访时否认与美国司法部向 美国联邦储备委员会发出传票有关。他表示，"我对此一无所知"。 编辑 李忆林子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters and potential false statements made to Congress about the project's scope [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation includes an analysis of Powell's public statements and a review of expenditure records, which received approval from U.S. Attorney Janine Pirro in November of the previous year [3]. - Janine Pirro, a long-time ally of former President Trump, was appointed as the head of the U.S. Attorney's Office last year [3]. Group 2: Political Context - President Trump stated on December 29 that he expects to announce Powell's successor in January 2026, as Powell's term is set to end in May of this year [3]. - Since taking office, Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to aggressively cut rates [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous ETF Da Cheng (159980), which has seen significant inflows and a rise in scale, driven by geopolitical factors and supply uncertainties in copper and aluminum markets [1][2] - As of January 9, the scale of the non-ferrous ETF Da Cheng (159980) surpassed 6 billion yuan, reaching 6.229 billion yuan, with a total share of 3.027 billion, both hitting record highs since its inception [1] - The recent geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions are increasing uncertainty in the supply of key resources like copper and aluminum, leading to a new narrative of cost support and "supply risk premium" [1] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could support a recovery in the U.S. economy and lead to a replenishment phase, which, along with the growth of the AI ecosystem, is expected to strengthen industrial metal prices [2] - For copper, global supply growth is projected at only 2.1% by 2026, while demand could grow by 3%, potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 630,000 metric tons [2] - In the aluminum sector, domestic production capacity is nearing its ceiling, and global supply growth is expected to be below 2%, with a projected shortfall of about 410,000 metric tons, indicating strong price elasticity and profitability potential [2] Group 3 - The current volatility in industrial metals is primarily driven by trading risks, but the core logic of "supply rigidity + energy transition demand" remains unchanged, suggesting that the non-ferrous ETF Da Cheng (159980.SZ) could be a viable investment option for capturing overall sector opportunities [3] - The underlying assets of the non-ferrous ETF Da Cheng (159980.SZ) include futures of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [164][165] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of commercial housing acquisition on the bond market may be limited. The acquisition mode may generate more financing needs, but the net impact on the bank - system liquidity should be less than that of government bond financing for new investments [2] - The US Treasury market downplays the impact of the tariff ruling. After the suspension of the tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court, the market may have reached a consensus on its impact. Regarding the new Fed Chair candidate, if Trump chooses Hassett, it may cause short - term market shocks and is difficult to achieve a super - large - scale interest rate cut without fundamental support [2] - The US employment market continued to cool in December last year, with only a slight year - on - year increase in non - farm employment, but stable non - farm salary growth, basically in line with the "soft landing" scenario. It is expected that the US government and the Fed may reach a compromise, with a possible final interest rate cut to the lower limit of the neutral interest rate predicted by the December interest rate dot - plot (2.5 - 2.75%), leaving room for 4 times of 25BP interest rate cuts from the current level. Under the baseline scenario, it is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in 2026 and 1 - 2 times in 2027 [2] - The producer price index continued to rise. In the week of January 10, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture increased by 1.45% week - on - week and decreased by 21.17% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 0.89% week - on - week and increased by 8.55% year - on - year. In the week of January 2, the price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and decreased by 1.90% year - on - year. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week; the average of the Nanhua Iron Ore Index increased by 2.40% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a production capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.96% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar increased by 2.66% week - on - week, and the price index of rebar increased by 0.63% week - on - week. In the week of January 2, the producer price index increased by 0.30% week - on - week and decreased by 0.18% year - on - year [2] Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - It shows the comparison of high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, including the relationship between US ADP and official non - farm employment, US non - farm weekly wages and core CPI, etc. It also presents the week - on - week changes of high - frequency data and the panoramic scan of high - frequency data with the latest values and historical values of various indicators [11][15][16] Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macro - Indicator Trends - It includes multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value (+ year - on - year change of PPI), the year - on - year change of daily crude steel output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value, etc. [26][30][33] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - It presents charts about important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, such as US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, etc. [87][91][95] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, including the seasonal trends of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the spot settlement price of LME copper, etc. [99][100][107] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It provides charts showing the year - on - year changes of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [156][157]

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 70,000[6] - The October and November employment figures were revised down by a total of 76,000[6] - Private sector job growth fell significantly from 50,000 in November to 37,000 in December[6] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in December, better than the expected 4.5%[6] - November's unemployment rate was revised slightly down to 4.54%[6] - Labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%, influenced by retirements and reduced labor supply[6] Sector Performance - Job losses in the goods-producing sector totaled 21,000 in December, with construction and manufacturing losing 11,000 and 8,000 jobs respectively[6] - Service sector jobs increased from 32,000 in November to 58,000 in December, primarily in leisure and hospitality, and education and healthcare[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points once in June, largely as a political statement with the new chair[6] - Economic growth is anticipated to rebound in the first half of the year due to tax cuts, despite inflation pressures from commodity prices[6] - In the second half, economic growth may slow again, with inflation potentially rising due to stabilizing oil and rent prices[6]