Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold price fluctuated and closed down at $3314.18 per ounce, with a high of $3345.35 and a low of $3301.47 during the trading day [1][9] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $3314.00 per ounce [9] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 956.23 tons [9][10] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after 170.7 billion yuan matured [2][10] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 against the USD, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, with the USD index rising by 1.02% to 98.6694 [15][2] Group 3: Macro Events and Trade Agreements - Trump announced that the U.S. will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [2][17] - The EU and U.S. have established a general framework for a trade agreement, but specific details, including those related to alcoholic beverages, are still under negotiation [2][17] - The trade agreement includes a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU, which may increase energy costs in Europe and accelerate capital outflow, negatively impacting the European economy [2][17] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.14% at 44,837.56 points, S&P 500 up 0.02% at 6,389.77 points, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 21,178.58 points [16] - Chinese A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% [16]

#报告 TS Lombard点评美国欧盟贸易协议：15%的关税是真的，剩下的都是假象。 https://t.co/1UKkZhbpODNone (@None):None ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.

高盛分析师表示，我们认为铜价尚未完全反映50%的关税水平，原因在于美国库存高企，以及是否会有 关税豁免仍存在不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of a two-month nationwide campaign by the Central Cyberspace Administration to address the dissemination of false information by self-media platforms, focusing on four major issues related to misleading public information and the manipulation of narratives. Group 1: Major Issues Addressed - Maliciously exploiting public interest by impersonating individuals involved in significant events or public figures to mislead the audience [1][2] - Distorting facts using artificial intelligence and other means to create false narratives that deceive the public [3] - Misrepresentation of policies and regulations that affect public interests, spreading false information about potential changes or significant events [5][6] Group 2: Information Authenticity Concerns - Failure to accurately label sources of information related to current events, public policies, and social issues, leading to confusion about the authenticity of the content [8][9] - Use of misleading labels or incorrect source citations that prevent the public from tracing the true origin of the information [10][11] Group 3: Professional Integrity Issues - Publishing unverified or scientifically inaccurate information under the guise of professional expertise, including the misuse of credentials [12][13] - Creating tutorials that promote deceptive practices to gain attention and disrupt the order of information dissemination [14]

距离美国的所谓8月1日"关税大限"日益逼近，美欧贸易协议也已经尘埃落定（至少表面上是），"懂王"特朗普自然轻松不少。 关税通牒 当地时间7月28日，特朗普表示，预计美国将对那些没有与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家征收15%至20%的关税。其表示，美国将很快向大约200个国家发出关 税信函。这一消息很快再度引发全球媒体的热议。 特朗普此前已多次表示"时间有限""更愿意发封信设关税，而非寻求协议"。对于15%到20%的关税税率，特朗普称"我已经算是很友好了"。 另外，虽然美国目前已敲定与多个大国、包括欧盟之间的贸易协议，但不少细节尚未落实，其中存在不少的分歧，各国反对声浪不断高涨。 近日，法国总理贝鲁在社交媒体发文，批评美欧贸易协议。贝鲁在文中将美欧之间的贸易协议称为"冯德莱恩-特朗普协议"。他表示，欧盟始终团结一致捍 卫自身的价值与利益，但最终却选择了屈服，"那是一个黑暗的日子"。 匈牙利总理欧尔班表示，欧美协定比英美协定更为糟糕。欧尔班对欧盟将投资美国、向美方购买军事装备和能源表示强烈质疑，因为欧盟委员会既没有资金 也没有军队。 有分析人士指出，特朗普常常声称某些关税条款已经达成一致，但实际情况并没有他讲的那么明确 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - term is affected by the continuous decline in airlines' prices in early August. The US - EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support, but the outcome of the China - US talks is not expected to be better than market expectations, and the probability of postponed or over 20% tariffs is higher [7]. - The spot price basically peaked at the end of July. Airlines continued to use the late - July freight rates in early August but gradually lowered them as the booking time approached. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the high - capacity deployment in early August weakened the effect of the domestic cargo rolling pool. Spot prices are expected to peak at the end of July or early August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline rate will increase. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1593, down 3.30% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1261, down 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their changes compared to the previous values are presented. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1493.6, down 1.61% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc., and their changes are given. For instance, the current position of EC2606 is 832, with an increase compared to the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current and previous values of monthly spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, and their changes are provided. For example, the 10 - 12 spread is currently 680.4, down 4.7 from the previous value [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9].

Group 1 - The current effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. is expected to stabilize between 15% and 20%, significantly lower than the potential 25% or higher rates proposed in April [1] - Economists have noted a decrease in recession fears, with JPMorgan reducing its recession risk estimate from 60% to 40%, indicating a shift in sentiment regarding the economic outlook [1] - The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement is seen as a factor that may alleviate concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, despite the tariffs still having a potential dampening effect on growth [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's strategist suggests that the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy is low growth accompanied by persistent inflation, with trade restrictions and immigration policies negatively impacting growth more than regulatory easing and fiscal stimulus [2] - The final outcome of trade negotiations remains uncertain, with several issues still pending before the August 1 deadline, which could lead to high tariffs affecting major trading partners [2] - The recent U.S.-EU agreement will provide new insights for the Federal Reserve to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, with expectations that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate policy in the short term [2] Group 3 - Citigroup economists have indicated that while the effective tariff rate has increased significantly from the beginning of the year, the stabilization around 15% is likely to keep the growth drag and inflation risks moderate [3]

泰国财政部长：相信美国对泰国的关税不会达到36%。 ...

Market Overview - UBS estimates recent global growth momentum corresponds to an annualized growth rate of only 13% [1] - UBS anticipates a short-term consolidation in global stock markets, with potential for further upside in the medium term, but also an increasing probability of a bubble [1] US Market Analysis - US stock market demonstrates resilience due to strong structural buying forces like corporate stock buybacks and individual pensions [2] - UBS expects continued positive earnings growth for US companies, driven by AI and a weaker dollar [2] Emerging Markets Analysis - UBS suggests emerging market stocks face downside risk as new reciprocal tariff rates are announced, with over 35% of their overall revenue coming from overseas [2] - Emerging markets do not appear to have priced in this risk [2] Monetary Policy - UBS anticipates potential for significant Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year due to a weakening labor market, leading to lower US Treasury yields [2] - UBS believes investors are overestimating the short-term increase in Treasury supply [2] - Stronger labor market data could lead the Federal Reserve to postpone rate cuts [2]