Core Points - The European Union is accelerating negotiations for a free trade agreement with Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) in response to increased tariffs imposed by the United States [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for Europe to strengthen trade ties with other countries and regions due to rising trade barriers from the Trump administration [1] - Significant progress has been made in negotiations, with major terms agreed upon, potentially creating a large market covering over 700 million people across the Atlantic [1] - Some EU member states, previously opposed to the agreement due to agricultural protection and environmental concerns, are showing signs of flexibility amid rising U.S. trade protectionism [1] - The French Trade Minister indicated that the U.S. trade war has prompted a reevaluation of the urgency to advance free trade agreements, although he noted that the current text of the agreement requires further refinement [1] Timeline and Future Steps - Following the Polish presidential elections on May 18, the internal coordination process within the EU is expected to accelerate [2] - If member states reach a broader consensus, Denmark, as the next rotating presidency, may host a vote on the Mercosur agreement in the EU Council between September and October, aiming for formal signing by the end of the year [2]

智通财经APP获悉，欧盟官方最新的预测显示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普针对美欧贸易的调查以及更广泛的行 业关税调查将把遭美征税的欧盟商品总额推高至5490亿欧元(大约6220亿美元)，在双方尝试谈判降低关税以 及贸易层面新一轮合作之际进一步升级跨大西洋冲突。 如果与美国的谈判失败，欧盟正在准备采取报复性质的关税或者出口限制措施，包括重新对价值大约210亿欧 元的美国进口商品征收关税。 由于特朗普政府发起面向全球的史无前例征收关税举措，欧盟还在努力实现与其他国家/地区的全方位贸易和 投资关系多元化，并保护其市场免受廉价商品的负面冲击。 欧盟-美国贸易平衡——欧盟在商品和服务贸易中顺差480亿欧元(2023 年数据，来源：欧盟委员会) 若谈判失败，欧盟也准备采取报复性质的措施以重新平衡美欧贸易关系，舍夫乔维奇在讲话中表示。有媒体 此前报道，欧盟已着手拟定新增美国进口产品关税清单，并讨论是否实施出口层面的限制措施。 虽然特朗普政府在"解放日"之后不久因美国股债汇三市持续暴跌而宣布对部分最严厉的"对等关税"实施了长 达90天的暂缓期限，在此期间对于除中国以外绝大多数国家的基准商品关税均调整至10%，但据彭博经济研 究团队 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's call for business graduates to focus on manufacturing rather than financial speculation contrasts sharply with his own profitable stock market activities, raising questions about his true intentions and the impact on U.S. manufacturing revival [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Activities - Trump's stock market actions have been controversial, with a notable post on social media suggesting it was a good time to buy, followed by a significant market rally after he announced a pause on tariffs, leading to a nearly 3000-point increase in the Dow [3]. - Following these announcements, Trump's stake in the Trump Media Technology Group saw a stock price increase of 22.67%, resulting in a personal wealth increase of $415 million in one day [3]. - Videos showed Trump boasting about the wealth gained by wealthy individuals in the stock market, further fueling speculation about potential market manipulation and insider trading [4]. Group 2: Manufacturing Advocacy - Trump has consistently pushed for the revival of U.S. manufacturing through various policy measures, including trade protectionism and increased tariffs, aiming to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. [6]. - He believes that business graduates, equipped with knowledge and skills, can optimize production processes and create jobs by entering the manufacturing sector [6]. - However, the contradiction between his stock market gains and his advocacy for manufacturing raises doubts about his sincerity and could hinder public trust in policies aimed at revitalizing the manufacturing industry [6][7].

本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源，赘述在文章结尾 5月4日，意大利米兰的一场会议引发全球瞩目，东盟10国与中国、日本、韩国财长及央行行长齐聚。 13国联合发声 发布联合声明直指美国关税政策："贸易保护主义加剧将导致经济分裂！"这份看似温和的声明，实则是亚洲国家对美国"关税战"的集体宣战书。 会议现场 有人说，这是全球经济秩序重塑的拐点，也有人说，美国的算盘这次彻底打错了！ 图源网络 那么这场博弈背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的较量？ 13国集体亮剑 联合声明的核心立场是为了强调维护以WTO为中心的多边贸易体系，反对"单边主义"和"保护主义"对全球供应链的破坏。 世界贸易组织 以及呼吁增强区域合作灵活性，应对美国关税政策带来的不确定性，并扩大"清迈倡议"适用范围，将传染病、自然灾害等非传统危机纳入金融互助框架，强 化区域经济韧性。 图源网络 韩国产业通商资源部数据显示，美国对韩半导体材料关税提升后，三星、SK海力士等企业成本激增15%。 韩国产业通商资源部 尽管后来暂缓90天执行，但要是落地将严重冲击亚洲出口型经济体，对于这些国家来说，90天的暂缓，更像是"凌迟处死"的刑期。 特朗普 特朗普政府近期一边释放谈判信号，一边 ...

"未来的不确定性正在增加，"联合声明呼吁，"加强区域团结与合作，努力应对日益加剧的不确定 性"，"我们当前的政策重点是增强长期韧性，同时保持灵活性以应对保护主义抬头和不稳定的全球金融 形势等挑战"。 亚洲财长和央行行长们还声明中重申，他们致力于"以世界贸易组织（WTO）为中心"，基于规则、非 歧视、自由、公平、开放、包容、平等和透明的多边贸易体制。 【文/观察者网 王一】当地时间5月4日，第28届东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长会议在意大利米 兰举行，主要讨论了全球和区域宏观经济形势、10+3区域财金合作等议题。《日经亚洲评论》5日报道 称，亚洲各国的财政部长和央行行长在该会议后的联合声明中警告称，贸易壁垒可能会给全球经济造成 裂痕。 声明写道，"贸易保护主义加剧将成为全球贸易的重负，导致经济分裂，影响整个地区的贸易、投资和 资本流动"。 《日经亚洲评论》指出，尽管这份声明并未点名美国，但上月初，美国总统特朗普宣布对全球几乎所有 国家征收新关税，其中对柬埔寨、老挝和越南分别征收49%、48%、46%的关税，属于美国所有贸易伙 伴中的最高水平。虽然目前特朗普暂缓90天对大部分国家征收"对等关税"，但10% ...

Core Viewpoint - Swedbank has significantly revised its forecast for the Swedish central bank's benchmark interest rate, now predicting a cumulative cut of 50 basis points to 1.75% by the end of Q3 this year, a major shift from the previous expectation of a single cut of 25 basis points to 2.25% in August [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The largest economy in the Nordic region is facing three pressures: external uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies, concerns over stagnation in domestic economic recovery, and persistent core inflation that constrains monetary policy [1] - Despite signs of overall inflation easing, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, contrasting with a potential GDP growth rate that may fall below 1.5% [1] Group 2: Trade Impact - The report emphasizes that the chain reaction from U.S. tariffs cannot be overlooked, as trade friction will impact the Swedish economy through reduced export orders, slowed business investment, and weakened consumer confidence [2] - Consequently, Swedbank has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.5%, while maintaining the growth estimate of 1.5% for this year [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - For neighboring Norway, Swedbank maintains the baseline forecast for the European Central Bank to initiate rate cuts in September, with an added expectation of a second cut in December, predicting four consecutive cuts to 3% by 2026 [2] - Analysts note that the policy shift by the Swedish central bank reflects the unique challenges faced by Nordic economies, which must guard against imported inflation risks while addressing the impacts of protectionism on export-driven economies [2]

专家：美国关税战升级至服务贸易领域 金十数据5月6日讯，中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长张茉楠表示，特朗普决定加征电影关税开 创了一个非常危险的先例，这也意味着美国贸易保护主义进一步升级：关税战的范围从传统货物贸易进 一步延伸到服务贸易领域。 （央视网） ...

Group 1 - The silver T+D market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading above 8255, opening at 8115, and reaching a high of 8255 and a low of 8115, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - The US Treasury market is under cautious sentiment due to uncertainty in tariff policies, which is pushing long-term Treasury yields higher as the market awaits specific developments in US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The upcoming auctions of 10-year (42 billion) and 30-year (25 billion) Treasury bonds are seen as significant tests for market capacity, with historical data indicating that long-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [2][3] Group 2 - The expansionary fiscal policy is leading to rising deficits and increasing bond supply, while trade tensions may weaken foreign investors' willingness to purchase US debt [3] - The current pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is not directly influencing long-term bond yields, which are instead being driven by global trade dynamics and supply-demand relationships [2] - The resistance level for silver T+D is identified in the range of 8360-8450, while the support level is noted between 8140-8210 [4]

一波未平、一波又起。 在五一假期结束的第一天，媒体又曝出了3件国际大事。 特朗普 第一件：13国联名反对特朗普的关税政策。 根据媒体消息，东盟与中日韩会议，也就是10+3会议在意大利召开，各国财长和央行行长都参加了会 议。 会后，13国发布了联合声明，强调将继续维持以世贸组织为中心的多边贸易体系，并批评了美国的关税 政策。 声明提到，贸易保护主义将严重影响到全球贸易，甚至是导致经济分裂，呼吁各国对特朗普政府的关税 政策表示警惕。 清迈经典 2000年，"10+3"财长会议中，13国达成共识，在泰国清迈共同签署了建立区域性货币互换网络的协议， 也就是《清迈倡议》。 该协议的建立初衷是为了尽可能的保障亚洲地区货币金融的安全性和稳定性，简单一点说，就是避免再 次出现"亚洲金融危机"。 尽管声明的措辞不算严厉，但13国表达的态度很明确，那就是坚决反对美国的对等关税政策。 对中国而言，这份声明的发布无疑是一件好事。 10+3会议 特朗普开启关税战之后，各国迫于美国的经济霸权，始终敢怒不敢言，只有中国和欧盟明确给出了反制 措施。 如今，东盟国家和日韩也明确加入到了反对行列，势必会给美国带来更大的政治冲击，也能一定程度上 ...

【环球时报记者 倪浩 环球时报驻日本、美国特约记者 王天晴 冯亚仁 环球时报特约记者 孙默】编者的话：美国政府当地时间5月3日正式启动对进 口关键汽车零部件加征25%附加关税的措施。日本首相石破茂表示，美国政府对进口汽车零部件加征关税的举措"令人非常遗憾"，日方将采取一 切可能的措施予以应对。此前，石破茂将美国关税政策称为日本"国难"，而倚重美国市场的日本汽车产业也对特朗普筑起的贸易高墙忧心忡忡。 据日本广播协会网站报道，石破茂已经听取了经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正就日美第二轮关税谈判的汇报，并计划为5月中旬举行的下一轮日美关税 谈判做准备。面对国内外的压力，日本同美国如何就汽车贸易进一步博弈引发广泛关注。 " 日本车企每小时损失 100 万美元 " 尽管面对国内外针对关税或扰乱供应链并推高汽车售价的呼声，美国政府于4月底对在美生产汽车的制造商实施为期两年的进口零部件的关税减 免，但据《日本经济新闻》5月4日报道，美国政府的关税依然会给日本汽车制造商带来更沉重的成本负担。随着零部件供应商的涨价压力增大， 价格不可避免地会转嫁到成品车上。这对此前长期在全球布局零部件供应网络的日本汽车制造商来说是一个重大打击。根据日 ...