Group 1 - The unilateral high tariffs imposed by the US have negatively impacted global trade and disrupted the US economy [1] - The recent US-China economic talks in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a preliminary consensus on several important trade issues, with both markets responding positively [1][5] - The trade war has no winners, as evidenced by the shift from a 58-year trade surplus in US agricultural products to a significant trade deficit, which reached $36.451 billion by 2024 [1] Group 2 - The US's high tariffs have distorted trade structures and increased agricultural input costs, diminishing the competitiveness of US agricultural products, particularly soybeans [3] - To restore the feasibility of US-China soybean trade, both parties need to lower tariffs, as unilateral concessions are unlikely [3] - China's stance remains firm against the US's unilateral tariffs, advocating for their removal while expressing willingness to respond positively to US efforts towards tariff cancellation [4] Group 3 - The economic talks in Kuala Lumpur reaffirmed that mutual respect and equal negotiation can lead to the resolution of significant trade issues, promoting stability in US-China economic relations [5] - The potential extension of the 24% tariffs and corresponding counter-tariffs could benefit both US and Chinese enterprises and consumers [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. Different metals have different fundamentals and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a callback - buying idea; for aluminum, hold at low prices in the long - term; for zinc, be cautious in trading; for nickel, observe; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, observe the regeneration and warehouse receipts; for tin, follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term; for industrial silicon, prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term; for lithium carbonate, the information about industrial silicon is repeated, and there is no specific core view for lithium carbonate presented separately [1][2][3][6][10][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 15, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 203, and LME inventory decreased by 1400 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are supply disturbances in waste copper, and the copper cable and aluminum cable start - up rates diverge [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a callback - buying idea, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 4, and LME inventory decreased by 3625 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Operating capacity is flat, photovoltaic component production is stable, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the European electrolytic aluminum plant has a 200,000 - ton production reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the zinc price oscillated upwards, the spot premium decreased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 1800 [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side TC is declining, demand is seasonally weak domestically and has some resistance overseas, and the export window has opened [2] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, gradually take profit on domestic - foreign positive spreads, look for far - month reverse spreads, and pay attention to the 12 - 02 positive spread opportunity [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 950, and LME inventory increased by 156 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad [3] - **Strategy**: Observe due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro - uncertainty [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 50 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is slightly increasing, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are at a high level [3] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided, but the fundamentals are overall weak [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the lead price increased due to spot tightness, the spot premium increased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 2700 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side regeneration is slow, demand has reversed the weakening expectation, and the spot is in short supply [6] - **Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and observe the regeneration and warehouse receipt increase [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the tin price oscillated, the position decreased by 5024, and LME inventory decreased by 25 [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and demand is mainly rigid. Overseas production has uncertainties [10] - **Strategy**: Follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 141 [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply will decline in the dry season, but considering polysilicon plant maintenance, Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 400,000 - 500,000 tons [13][16] - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1950, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 2000, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [16] - **Fundamentals**: No specific fundamentals for lithium carbonate are presented separately, and the information about industrial silicon is repeated [16] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy for lithium carbonate is provided [16]

Group 1 - The core message of the recent US-China trade talks is a potential easing of tensions, highlighted by US Treasury Secretary's statement of "no longer considering" a 100% tariff increase on China, indicating a strategic adjustment in the US approach to the trade war [1][2] - The phrase "no longer considering" reflects a tactical retreat rather than a fundamental change in strategy, as it suggests that the option for tariffs remains if negotiations do not proceed as expected [2][7] - The negotiations covered sensitive topics such as maritime logistics, fentanyl control, and agricultural trade, with a focus on extending the current tariff suspension period, which is set to expire on November 10 [2][4] Group 2 - The US is particularly concerned about rare earth elements, indicating a heightened focus on supply chain security, with China's dominance in this area becoming a significant bargaining chip [3][4] - Although both sides claim to have reached a "preliminary consensus," the lack of detailed disclosures suggests that the outcome is more about pragmatic exchanges rather than resolving fundamental conflicts [4] - The timing of the talks, just before the APEC meeting, indicates a mutual interest in creating a favorable atmosphere for upcoming leader discussions, with the US needing to show a controlled approach to China and China aiming to stabilize relations to focus on economic development [4][6] Group 3 - The global market's keen interest in the US-China talks underscores the reality that US-China relations have worldwide implications, affecting Southeast Asian countries, European businesses, and emerging markets [6][7] - Southeast Asian nations are particularly concerned about the impact of the trade war on regional supply chains and welcome any signs of easing tensions [6] - The ongoing competition between the US and China, especially in technology and geopolitics, suggests that while there may be a temporary easing, the underlying rivalry will continue [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the soybean market, where U.S. farmers face significant challenges due to China's refusal to purchase American soybeans, which has become a focal point in trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean production, has seen a bumper harvest this year, yet China, the largest buyer in previous years, has ceased purchases, causing distress among U.S. farmers and the government [1]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who is also a soybean farmer, expressed personal financial distress due to China's refusal to buy U.S. soybeans, highlighting the direct impact of trade policies on individual farmers [3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reached a "substantial framework," but significant compromises and further dialogue are necessary to resolve the long-standing trade war [4]. - The U.S. must make concessions on key issues, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, to alter the current passive stance in negotiations, as continued hardline approaches may lead to further isolation [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diplomatic Strategies - The article suggests that reasonable dialogue and compromise are essential for resolving conflicts, as the trade war cannot be a long-term solution in an increasingly globalized economy [6][8]. - There is hope for a balanced solution that meets the needs of U.S. soybean farmers while addressing China's concerns, but timely and substantive progress is crucial to avoid further harm [6][8].

Group 1 - The core message of the recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur is a significant softening of rhetoric from the US, indicated by Treasury Secretary Bessent's statement of "no longer considering" a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods, which is seen as a key signal for easing trade tensions [1][3] - The shift from "considering" to "no longer considering" tariffs reflects a strategic reassessment by the US regarding the costs of the trade war, particularly in light of ongoing inflation pressures and the upcoming 2024 elections [3][10] - The negotiations covered sensitive topics such as maritime logistics, fentanyl regulation, and agricultural trade, with both sides focusing on pragmatic exchanges rather than resolving fundamental conflicts [5][6] Group 2 - The current suspension period for tariffs is set to expire on November 10, and extending this suspension is a priority, with the US seeking cooperation from China on fentanyl regulation in exchange for tariff pauses [6] - The US's emphasis on rare earths during the talks highlights its concerns over supply chain security, while China's bargaining power in this area has become a crucial leverage point in negotiations [6][8] - The timing of the talks, just before the APEC meeting, suggests both parties aim to create a favorable atmosphere for upcoming leadership discussions, with the US needing to project a tough stance on China while China seeks to stabilize relations to focus on economic development [8][10] Group 3 - The outcome of the talks is being closely monitored by global markets, reflecting the reality that US-China relations significantly impact the world, with Southeast Asian countries concerned about supply chain disruptions and European businesses hoping for stability to avoid choosing sides [8][10] - The expectation of avoiding a "new cold war" is a common hope among the international community, as both sides recognize that mutual harm from continued conflict is becoming a shared understanding [10]

Group 1: Negotiation Overview - The fifth round of US-China trade talks took place in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, focusing on tariffs, export controls, rare earths, and digital economy, with preliminary consensus reached[2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese products has diminished, and China is expected to resume soybean purchases and delay rare earth export controls for one year[3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The negotiations signal a pragmatic approach from both sides, aiming for a balance between core interests and external stability, indicating a potential turning point in US-China trade relations[3] - China’s potential resumption of soybean purchases aligns with seasonal import peaks, with current purchases at only one-third of last year's levels as of September[7] - The US is showing a willingness to ease tensions by delaying extreme measures and extending the tariff suspension period, with a focus on a "fentanyl tariff for soybean purchases" as a negotiation balance point[10] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term improvements, the long-term structural conflicts in US-China relations remain unchanged, with technology continuing to be a core issue[14] - The recent negotiations may boost market risk appetite and support exports, providing a buffer for China's economic transition amid ongoing trade tensions[14]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a surge in market optimism, with global stock markets, oil prices, and copper prices rising in response to the positive developments from trade talks in Kuala Lumpur [1][2] - Asian stock markets experienced significant gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historic high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, contributing to a rise in US stock futures and commodity prices, particularly for agricultural products [3][4] Group 2 - Investors are looking for sustained signals of trade conflict resolution and effective economic stimulus measures from China, which could translate into tangible growth [4][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade relationship accounts for nearly one-fifth of global trade [5]

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属日报 2025-10-28 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国对中国关税威胁"消除"，权益市场走强，铜价延续涨势，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.49%至 11000 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 88130 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 375 至 139575 吨，注销仓单比例下滑， Cash/3M 维持贴水 ...

2025年10月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆偏强，或带动连粕反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 白糖：外弱内强 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持调整 | 10 | | 生猪：短期现货偏强，再累库格局 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,100 | -0.24% | ...

转自：北京日报客户端 中国始终秉持开放、理性、务实的态度，以互利共赢为导向发展对美经贸关系。希望美方着眼长远，与 中方相向而行，共同落实好两国元首历次通话重要共识和今年以来历次经贸磋商成果，让合作成为中美 经贸关系的主旋律。 新一轮中美经贸磋商于10月26日在马来西亚吉隆坡落下帷幕。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共 识为引领，围绕双方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各 自关切的安排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步确定具体细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。 中美经贸磋商成果来之不易。美方应以战略眼光和长远思维看待中美经贸关系，回归理性与务实的轨 道，正确认识中美经贸关系的本质、中美在经贸领域的分歧以及中美经贸关系的国际影响，与中方共同 维护磋商成果。 来源：经济日报 作者: 郭 言 中美经贸关系的本质是合作共赢。中美拥有广泛的共同利益和广阔的合作空间，在经贸领域已形成优势 互补、互利共赢的格局。中美经济深度交织、利益高度融合，彼此难以割裂。中国始终秉持开放、理 性、务实的态度，以互利共赢为导向发展对美经贸关系。美国一些有识之士也多次指出，"脱钩断链"无 助于美国经济，将损害美国 ...