Core Insights - The logistics industry in Shenzhen's Fuwei community is experiencing a resurgence in business due to recent adjustments in China-U.S. tariff policies, which have led to a significant increase in shipping volumes [1][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Following the China-U.S. Geneva trade talks, both countries significantly reduced bilateral tariffs, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating [1]. - The logistics companies in Fuwei have seen a rapid recovery in their operations, with some reporting a 40% to 60% increase in shipping volumes compared to April [6][10]. - The average tax rate for goods shipped to the U.S. was around 170% in April, with some items exceeding 200%, causing a drastic drop in shipping volumes during that month [6][11]. Group 2: Business Recovery and Challenges - Companies like Yidai Logistics reported a drop in daily shipping volume from 100,000 to less than 30,000 packages, but have since rebounded to nearly 100,000 packages per day [5]. - The logistics sector is facing capacity constraints due to increased demand, with container bookings from China to the U.S. surging nearly 300% after the tariff adjustments [6]. - Air freight costs have risen significantly, with prices increasing from 30 yuan to over 40 yuan per kilogram on certain routes [6]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Logistics companies are adapting to the changing environment by establishing their own customs and delivery processes, which has allowed them to capture new clients despite the downturn in April [9]. - Companies are also preparing to open additional overseas warehouses in the U.S. to mitigate logistics costs and improve delivery times [10]. - There is a cautious optimism among logistics firms regarding the long-term prospects of U.S.-China trade, as domestic products remain competitive despite high tariffs [11].

Group 1 - The recent reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has significantly revitalized the trade market, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [1][5] - Following the tariff cuts, there has been a surge in orders from U.S. clients, with container bookings from China to the U.S. increasing nearly 300% [2][8] - U.S. importers are taking proactive measures by increasing order volumes and stockpiling inventory in anticipation of potential future tariff changes [3][11] Group 2 - The logistics market is experiencing a chaotic pricing environment, with shipping costs expected to rise due to increased demand and limited shipping capacity [9][10] - Companies are optimizing production processes to meet the surge in orders and are prioritizing shipments to avoid delays during peak demand periods [9][15] - The long-term strategy for companies includes diversifying markets and enhancing brand presence to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single market [17][18]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant reduction of bilateral tariffs between China and the U.S., leading to a surge in shipping demand and rising freight rates as companies rush to fulfill backlogged orders within a 90-day window [1][3] - Following the announcement, shipping companies immediately raised prices, with rates for shipping containers to the U.S. West Coast reaching $6,000 in June, indicating a strong supply-demand dynamic in the market [1] - Despite the tariff reductions, there are indications that the U.S. may continue to pursue its tariff policies post the 90-day period, with potential threats of increased tariffs still looming [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has revoked the AI export rules established during the Biden administration and is implementing stricter controls on global chip exports, particularly targeting China [4] - China has initiated a crackdown on the smuggling and illegal export of strategic minerals, including rare earths, to prevent the U.S. from circumventing export controls through third-party countries [6][8] - The recent actions by China to tighten export controls on rare earths are seen as a strategic move to leverage its position in negotiations with the U.S., potentially leading to increased prices and supply chain challenges for American companies [8]

关税中场休息，疯狂囤货开始了。 据央视报道，根据贸易追踪机构Vizion的数据显示，中美互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集装箱运输预订量飙升将近300%。 对此，有声音称这是因为中美互降关税，中美贸易受利好消息刺激，回暖了。 啥情况，中美贸易真的回暖了？美国外贸商疯狂囤货，究竟为哪般？关税给美国留下了什么伤疤？ 而等到中美发布联合声明后，七天平均预订量暴涨277%到了21530个标准集装箱。 相应的，中国到美西、美东的运价也出现上涨，相较之前分别涨了75美元/40英尺标准箱和52美元/40英尺标准箱，现在的价格是2347美元/40英尺标准箱和 3335美元/40英尺标准箱，涨幅分别为20%和7.5%。 只不过，尽管价格大涨，依旧无法阻挡美国外贸商囤货的热情。 但必须要说明的是，美国外贸商疯狂囤货，与其说这是中美贸易回暖，倒不如说是美国外贸商被特朗普整怕了，生怕关税卷土重来。 其实现在大家的想法都差不多： 尽管现在中美互降关税，但也只是暂时的而已，如果90天后没谈成怎么办？ 要知道，前几天特朗普已经表态，如果90天内中美谈判不成，那么对华关税仍将大幅上涨，只是不会涨到145%那么离谱而已。 所以说到底， ...

金十数据5月19日讯，当地时间5月18日，美国共和党籍参议员兰德·保罗在接受美国广播公司《本周》 栏目采访时指出，特朗普政府过于夸大贸易逆差，可这其中存在一个经济学谬误，即认为贸易逆差真有 什么实际意义。兰德·保罗表示，数十年来美国一直对华贸易逆差，可两个国家却都越来越富有。市场 的作用就在于压低价格、提升效率，只要是自愿交易，就必然对双方有利，否则交易根本不会发生—— 这根本不是什么国家间的零和博弈。 （CCTV国际时讯） 美参议员强调：中美贸易不是零和博弈 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着 | | | | 开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在 | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上， | | | | 供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆 | | | | 暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕近日窄幅 | | | | 整理，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，市场在等待新指引。主力【2865，2930】 | | | | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽库存环比调减，菜粕库存环比调增，但 5 月 | | | | 至 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 应展望压力减轻。近日菜粕小幅反弹，但短期空头格 ...

Group 1 - The US has canceled 91% of additional tariffs, and China has reciprocated with a 91% cancellation of counter-tariffs, benefiting both producers and consumers in both countries [2][3] - The petrochemical industry is expected to see significant benefits from the tariff adjustments, as costs for importing crude oil, LNG, and other chemical raw materials from the US will decrease, leading to lower production costs [3] - The reduction in tariffs is likely to enhance the price competitiveness of Chinese petrochemical products in the US market, potentially increasing exports and alleviating production pressure on certain chemical products [3] Group 2 - A "rush to ship" is anticipated as foreign trade companies compete for a 90-day buffer period to stock up on goods, leading to a potential increase in shipping rates from May to July [4] - The total export value of China's chemical products is projected to be approximately $370.7 billion in 2024, with exports to the US accounting for about $44.6 billion, representing 12.03% of total exports [4] - The easing of tariffs is expected to stabilize agricultural input prices in the US, which have been negatively impacted by previous tariff policies [4] Group 3 - Companies are actively seizing the opportunity presented by the tariff adjustments, with specific mentions of increased export potential for certain products like acetamiprid and lithium batteries [5] - The tariff adjustments are seen as providing a relatively stable overseas trade environment for solar and energy storage products, with ongoing projects in the Middle East expected to enhance global supply capabilities [5] - The recent tariff changes are viewed as a temporary relief for the Chinese chemical industry, with companies advised to monitor future negotiations and adapt their strategies accordingly [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].

铝周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆库存： ◆策略建议： 沪铝：建议观望为主。 氧化铝：建议观望为主。 2025-05-19 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 近日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环 比增加10万吨至8685万吨，全国氧化铝库存324.6万吨，周度环比减少4.2万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场 处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。山东地区某氧化铝企业150万吨氢氧化铝项目、广西地区某氧化铝企业二期200万吨、北方某大 型氧化铝企业二期两条共320万吨逐步贡献氧化铝产量。需要注意的是，氧化铝企业集中减产及检修，带来库存下降和阶段性提货 困难，贸易商及部分下游对现货需求量增加，近期氧化铝现货价格企稳反弹。电解铝运行产能4412.4万吨，周度环比增加0.5万吨。 四川省内铝企复产基本完成，广元弘昌晟预计本月满产；贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产 ...