2025.11. 27 本文字数：982，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛11月26日在2025年度资产管理高峰论坛上表示，"十五五"时期是战 略机遇和风险挑战并存、不可预测性增多的时期。应对发展环境的挑战，重要的一招是以改革开放为 根本动力。 "深化改革不仅仅是财政货币政策的松和紧，根本上是聚焦高质量发展的体制机制障碍，推进深层次 改革，扩大高水平开放，推动生产关系和生产力、上层建筑和经济基础、国家治理和社会发展更好相 适应，持续增强发展动力和社会活力，推进供给侧结构性改革，建设现代化经济体系，构建新发展格 局，提升宏观治理效能，推动高水平的科技自立自强，扩大高水平开放。"管涛说。 管涛认为，未来中国市场的机遇来自经济的转型升级。未来五年权益类核心资产的配置方向主要有四 类：自主可控与新潮消费、龙头企业的并购重组、传统行业的创新发展和优质企业的产业外迁。 "长期来看，经济转型孕育了资本市场发展的机会。"管涛分析，一方面，应对大国博弈更加复杂激烈 的外部环境，重要的是因地制宜发展新质生产力，加快构建新发展格局，培育壮大新兴产业、未来产 业。国内将持续用新技术新模 ...

明晰具体内容与涵盖范围。面对就业结构性矛盾，要聚焦稳岗促就业工作，促进重点群体稳定就业，加 大欠薪整治力度，缓解群众在就业和收入方面的后顾之忧。面对复杂严峻的自然灾害形势，要切实抓好 灾后恢复重建、受灾群众安置和生活保障工作。还要看到，我国是世界上老年人口规模最大的国家，且 人口老龄化进程加快。为积极应对人口老龄化问题、有效破解养老难题，要健全养老事业和产业协同发 展政策机制，加强养老护理人才供给，健全失能失智老年人照护体系。此外，在入学、就医、住房、托 幼等民生重点领域，要着力攻关，以重点突破带动民生工作整体提升，不断把人民对美好生活的向往变 为现实。 解决好人民群众急难愁盼问题，是系统性工程。必须从人民的整体利益、根本利益、长远利益出发，以 满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要为根本目的，持续完善相关体制机制，形成经济发展和民生改善的良 性循环。 一方面，经济发展是保障和改善民生的物质基础，是解决民生问题的根本途径。要在高质量发展中提高 人民生活品质，将经济增长的成果切实转化为民生福祉。坚持深化供给侧结构性改革和着力扩大有效需 求协同发力，完善扩大消费长效机制，加快构建全国统一大市场，不断提高人民生活水平，坚持 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent performance of the petrochemical ETF, which has seen a slight decline of 0.12%, while several of its constituent stocks have shown positive gains. The ETF has experienced net inflows in 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 24.13 million yuan, with its latest share count reaching a record high of 227 million shares [1][2] - The introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the dual challenges of intensified competition in basic raw materials and insufficient supply of high-end chemicals. The plan's core objective is to reduce "involutionary" competition and shift the development model from "quantitative expansion" to "qualitative improvement" [1] - According to Zhongyin Securities, the industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. The medium to long-term investment recommendations include: 1) Recovery in demand supported by policies, with continuous optimization on the supply side, leading to potential dual improvements in performance and valuation for leading enterprises; 2) Rapid development in downstream industries such as semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials, providing ample growth opportunities; 3) Focus on sub-industries like fluorochemicals, agrochemicals, refining, dyes, polyester filament, and tires, which are expected to maintain or improve their high levels of prosperity [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16%. Driven by policy, China's petrochemical industry is expected to reshape its competitiveness, with supply-side structural reforms promoting sustained improvement in industry prosperity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a unified national market to enhance domestic demand and drive economic growth in China, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. Group 1: Market Potential and Economic Structure - China's super-large market is characterized by a steadily expanding middle-income group, advanced digital infrastructure, and a well-defined regional development pattern, which together create a robust economic ecosystem [1]. - The current population of over 1.4 billion is projected to see the middle-income group exceed 800 million in the next decade, indicating significant market potential [1]. - The diverse and tiered demand from various demographics, such as the elderly seeking health services and the younger generation desiring personalized experiences, provides ample opportunities for innovation and industrial upgrades [1]. Group 2: Reform and Demand Transformation - To convert market potential into effective demand, it is essential to deepen reforms that eliminate barriers to economic circulation, such as local protectionism and market segmentation [2]. - The construction of a unified national market will facilitate smoother movement of goods and resources, allowing local products to access broader markets at lower costs and higher efficiency [2]. - The focus should be on enhancing supply quality and optimizing income distribution alongside expanding domestic demand, addressing the shift in consumer preferences from quantity to quality [2]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - Technology plays a crucial role in unlocking new spaces for domestic demand, with China's vast data resources and highly digitalized consumption activities extending consumption scenarios [3]. - The development of the digital and smart economy promotes deeper integration of online and offline consumption, creating new consumer hotspots and transforming supply-demand matching [3]. - Utilizing big data allows companies to gain insights into subtle changes in consumer needs, enabling precise targeting and efficient supply, thus making the super-large market dynamic and capable of generating new demands [3].

Core Insights - The book "Growth is the Hard Truth" by Yu Yongding provides a historical commentary on China's macroeconomic issues from 2019 to 2025, analyzing the causes of declining growth rates and the challenges of structural reforms [1][2] - The author emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies to help China move out of the "L-shaped" growth phase [1][6] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - The book discusses the evolution of China's macroeconomic policies, highlighting the shift in focus from high growth to stabilizing prices and addressing overcapacity since 2011 [3][4] - It notes that China's GDP growth rate has declined from 10.3% in 2010 to a target of 5% by 2025, indicating a significant slowdown in economic momentum [5] Key Issues and Recommendations - The author identifies critical issues such as the housing market, local government debt, and the impact of the pandemic, providing judgments and suggestions for each [1] - The book argues against the notion that a decline in growth to 6% or lower is inevitable, advocating for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate demand [7][8] Infrastructure and Local Government Debt - Infrastructure investment is highlighted as a crucial tool for macroeconomic regulation, with a call for increased central government support to alleviate local government debt issues [8] Global Perspectives and Lessons - The book reflects on changes in Western macroeconomic thought post-global financial crisis, discussing the implications of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies adopted by Western countries [8] Annual Economic Analysis - The final chapter provides an annual analysis of China's economic situation based on statistical data, offering policy recommendations to achieve growth targets [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand through the construction of a unified national market, which is seen as a strategic move to leverage China's vast market potential and support high-quality economic development [1][2][3] - China's current economic landscape is characterized by a growing middle-income group, advanced digital infrastructure, and a diverse regional development pattern, which together create a robust ecosystem for consumption upgrades [1][2] - The prediction from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that China's middle-income group will exceed 800 million in the next decade, highlighting significant market potential driven by diverse consumer demands across different demographics [1][2] Group 2 - To convert market potential into effective demand, it is essential to deepen reforms that address barriers in economic circulation, facilitating smoother flow of goods and factors across the country [2] - The strategy involves breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, allowing regional products to access broader markets at lower costs, thus enriching consumer choices [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand should be aligned with improving supply quality and optimizing income distribution, addressing the shift in consumer preferences from quantity to quality [2] Group 3 - Technological empowerment is identified as a key driver for unlocking new spaces in domestic demand, with China's large data scale and high digitalization enhancing consumer engagement [3] - The development of the digital and smart economy is crucial for integrating online and offline consumption, creating new consumption hotspots and transforming supply-demand matching [3] - By leveraging technology and breaking down barriers through innovation, the internal circulation of the economy can be strengthened, providing a stable foundation for future growth and resilience against external challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on strengthening local fiscal "three guarantees" to effectively respond to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal policies and targeted measures to support economic recovery [2][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance will ensure the execution of existing policies to support economic recovery, with timely fund allocation and transfer payments being highlighted as effective [4]. - There will be a focus on industries and sectors severely affected by the pandemic, with plans to introduce targeted measures and optimize expenditure structures [4]. - The government aims to implement both short-term and long-term measures aligned with supply-side structural reforms to promote high-quality economic development [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The relationship between fiscal revenue and economic performance is emphasized, with the potential for economic recovery and fiscal balance as the pandemic situation improves [4]. - The determination of fiscal deficits will consider various factors, including economic conditions and macroeconomic controls, and will undergo legal procedures such as review by the National People's Congress [5].

Core Viewpoint - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) represents a significant policy action by China to open its market to the world, following the Belt and Road Initiative, and aims to reshape the foreign trade landscape of China [2][3]. Group 1: Comparison between CIIE and Canton Fair - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, focused on expanding exports during a time when China's trade partners were limited, primarily to Eastern Europe [3]. - In contrast, the CIIE emphasizes a comprehensive opening-up strategy, focusing on imports to meet domestic market demands and support industrial and consumption upgrades [5][9]. Group 2: Significance of Shanghai as the Venue - Shanghai was chosen for the CIIE due to its strong economic growth, with a GDP growth rate of 6.9% and a consumption growth rate of 8%, indicating a robust market for imported goods [5][6]. - The city also has a significant outbound consumption, with over 43 million residents spending an average of $2,650 abroad, highlighting the need for better domestic supply [5][6]. Group 3: Characteristics of the CIIE - The CIIE will cover over 240,000 square meters, including both goods and service trade, attracting a diverse range of products from both developing and developed countries [7]. - It serves as an important opportunity for foreign companies to enter the Chinese market, particularly those with potential for expansion [7][8]. Group 4: Opportunities for Domestic Enterprises - The CIIE provides domestic and foreign enterprises in China with a platform to expand their sourcing channels, allowing them to introduce urgently needed products and services to the domestic market [8]. - This event is crucial for enhancing consumer satisfaction and supporting service trade enterprises in establishing partnerships and improving service capabilities [8]. Group 5: Trade Balance and Structural Reform - The CIIE is a key initiative in China's supply-side structural reform, aiming for high-quality imports and contributing to the country's economic rejuvenation [9][10]. - The strategy focuses on achieving a balance in trade, promoting both export quality and increased imports to meet the needs of domestic consumption upgrades [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant role of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in the historical process of achieving socialist modernization in China, highlighting the need for a combination of goal-oriented and problem-oriented approaches to ensure steady progress in economic and social development [3][4]. Group 1: Importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" Period - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for advancing China's modernization, requiring a strategic focus on consolidating advantages, breaking bottlenecks, and addressing weaknesses [5][8]. - The period is characterized by a need to adapt to profound changes in domestic development conditions, including a shift towards a more balanced and sustainable economic model [6][7]. Group 2: Economic and Social Development Strategies - The article outlines the importance of formulating and implementing five-year plans as a key political advantage for the governance of the country, aiming for significant progress towards modernization by 2035 [5]. - It stresses the need to enhance the quality and efficiency of economic growth while maintaining reasonable growth rates, with a target of achieving per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [11]. Group 3: Addressing Challenges and Opportunities - The article discusses the dual challenges of strategic opportunities and risks in the current global landscape, emphasizing the need for resilience and proactive measures to strengthen domestic capabilities [6][9]. - It highlights the necessity of overcoming bottlenecks in high-quality development, particularly in technology and industry, to ensure sustainable progress [9][10]. Group 4: Enhancing National Strength - The article calls for a comprehensive enhancement of both hard and soft national power, focusing on economic, technological, and cultural strengths to improve China's global influence [16]. - It emphasizes the importance of ensuring security in development, advocating for a unified approach to development and safety to foster a stable and prosperous society [17].

External Environment - The Federal Reserve's policy has shifted from inflation reduction to seeking balance, with a focus on managing inflation and debt sustainability in 2026 [6][20] - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant growth despite aggressive interest rate hikes due to factors such as ineffective interest rate transmission, market expectations, and the resilience of technology sector profits [11][12] Internal Environment - The Chinese economy is facing challenges with slowing investment growth, weakened traditional industry momentum, and cautious market expectations, while consumer confidence needs to be boosted [21][22] - The government is implementing policies to enhance internal demand and stabilize the economy, focusing on preventing excessive competition and promoting upgrades in various industries [23][24] Market Environment - The market is experiencing a shift in risk preferences, with a potential transition from small-cap to large-cap stocks as valuation dynamics change [36] - The bond market has shifted from a bull market to a wide-ranging oscillation, with a focus on stable income assets and low-valuation value assets expected to attract incremental funds [39][40] Investment Outlook for 2026 - The technology sector, particularly AI and related industries, is expected to see a slowdown in profit growth after rapid valuation increases, with a focus on undervalued segments with performance support [7] - Traditional industries are advised to focus on quality upgrades driven by AI and the recovery of profits following capacity clearing due to anti-competitive policies [7] - The consumer sector is anticipated to experience a recovery in inventory cycles, with long-term capital gradually returning to the market, particularly in food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and duty-free sectors [7][41]