当地时间7月4日美国独立日当天，总统特朗普将签署备受争议的"大而美"税收与支出法案，标志着其任内最重大的经济政策胜利。该法案以微 弱优势通过国会两院表决，核心条款包括延长企业和个人减税措施、削减社会福利支出并提高债务上限。尽管法案被批评加剧贫富分化和财政 赤字，但市场对短期经济刺激的预期推动美股高开，美元指数升至97附近，而黄金价格则因美债收益率攀升和美元走强承压，现货黄金在3330 美元/盎司附近震荡。 一、法案核心内容与通过历程 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年重返白宫后推动的标志性立法，其核心目标是通过减税和财政支出调整刺激经济。法案主要内容包括： 无限期延长企业税减免：将企业所得税最高税率维持在21%，并取消替代性最低税，预计未来十年为企业节省4.5万亿美元。 个人税调整：提高遗产税和赠予税免税额，加班费和小费收入免税，但医疗补助和食物援助计划（SNAP）的资格要求被收紧，预计削减近1.5 万亿美元社会福利支出。 债务扩张：联邦债务上限提高5万亿美元，未来十年赤字预计增加3.3万亿美元，美国国债规模将突破40万亿美元。 参议院于7月1日以51:50的微弱优势通过，副总统万斯投下关键一票；众议院于3日以 ...

2025 年 07 月 04 日 宏观专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 黄金价格波动的底层逻辑 最近一年走势 相关报告 《 金 融 政 策 加 力 稳 市 场 稳 预 期 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-05-08 《 政 治 局 会 议 的 五 大 政 策 部 署 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-04-25 本篇报告试图回答以下核心问题：1、黄金价格波动的核心逻辑；2、 如何看未来黄金走势。 黄金是一种不可再生资源，被广泛作为消费品、投资资产和避险工 具，兼具货币、商品与金融三重属性。黄金价格波动不仅紧扣全球 经济脉搏，还与实际利率起伏、地缘政治动荡、主要经济体央行货 币政策和购金行为、市场供需关系变化、其他突发性风险事件等因 素密切相关。 黄金价格不仅有周期的波动，也有加速上涨的趋势。1973 年布雷顿 森林体系瓦解后，黄金价格历时35年3个月于2008年3月达到1000 美元/盎司；再经过 12 年 4 个月，于 2020 年 8 月突破 2000 美元/ 盎司；至 2025 年 3 月，仅用约 4 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aoyuan (03883.HK) is implementing plans and measures to alleviate liquidity pressure and address the auditor's concerns regarding its going concern status Group 1: Debt Restructuring and Financial Management - The company is actively promoting a comprehensive restructuring of its domestic debt to establish a long-term mechanism for alleviating debt pressure and strengthening cash flow risk management [1] - The domestic debt restructuring plan is nearly complete and is currently seeking feedback from various parties, including domestic creditors [1] - The company has reached contractual arrangements with several domestic financial institutions to extend existing financing arrangements amounting to approximately RMB 1.014 billion [1] Group 2: Sales and Operational Efficiency - The company is accelerating the pre-sale and sale of properties under development and completed properties, achieving a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 4.02 billion and a contract sales area of about 436,200 square meters in the first half of 2025 [1] - To control administrative expenses, the company has optimized its workforce, reducing the total number of employees by approximately 28% since January 2025 and streamlining its organizational structure by eliminating two regional companies [1] Group 3: Legal and Asset Management - The company has reached three settlement agreements with business partners regarding overdue/unpaid operating payables, bank loans, and other borrowings in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company continues to explore potential asset sale opportunities and will announce any substantial progress in this area [1]

以下文章来源于凤凰网财经 ，作者风暴眼 凤凰网财经 . 你好，我们是凤凰网财经，全球华人都在看的财经公众号，传播最有价值的财经报道，你值得关注！欢 迎访问：http://finance.ifeng.com/ 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 整个资本版图在市场的寒意中震荡不已。 作者丨 风暴眼 来源丨 凤凰网财经 6 月 30 日，一则核数师"非标报"引爆香江。 香港大佬杨受成旗下英皇国际 166 亿港元银行借贷逾期，德勤对其持续经营能力亮出红灯，"可能 对其持续经营能力构成重大疑问"。 利空消息迅速引发市场剧烈反应，投资者用脚投票。 英皇国际股价当日一度暴跌超 15% ，尽管尾盘跌幅收窄至 11.76% ，但市值已缩水至仅 11.58 亿港元，这一数字甚至不足其债务总额的零头。 更具连锁效应的是英皇系个股的集体重挫。 截至港股收盘，英皇钟表珠宝跌 8.33% ，英皇娱乐酒店跌 5.26% ，英皇资本暴跌 18.18% ，英 皇文化产业，跌幅亦达 14.89% ，整个资本版图在市场的寒意中震荡不已。 亏损扩大一倍多 这场风暴的导火索，源于英皇国际的 2025 财年业绩公告。 财报里藏着两个平行世界 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax and spending bill passed by Congress is expected to exacerbate long-term debt issues in the U.S., despite temporarily alleviating short-term default risks [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts and authorizes increased spending on border security and military, while significantly cutting Medicare and Medicaid [2]. - The borrowing limit for the U.S. government has been raised by $5 trillion, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion and cut spending by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, resulting in 10.9 million people losing federal health insurance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors are reportedly selling U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about declining demand and increasing borrowing costs [3]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded due to investor worries about fiscal health, indicating a potential long-term rise in interest rates [4]. - The market's reaction to the bill has been relatively muted, as the expansion of the deficit has already been priced in since Trump's return to office [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The bill is expected to contribute 0.5% to economic growth next year, but concerns remain that the debt burden may offset the intended economic stimulus [3]. - The focus of the market is shifting towards economic data and corporate earnings, with the debt issue becoming a secondary concern [5].

此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权信用评级，这是 第三家下调美国主权信用评级的主要国际评级机构。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。《纽约时报》指出， 这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。初步分析显示，该法案不仅会在未来10年使美国赤字增 加约3.3万亿美元，还会减少国家几十年内的税收收入。此种缺口可能会导致美国的财政轨迹开始发生 翻天覆地的变化，并加剧债务危机的担忧。 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项立法。危险 在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥巴马总统任期内担任经 济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下，该法案将进 一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与 支出法案。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhongli International Leasing Co., Ltd. successfully issued its first super short-term financing bond in the interbank bond market, marking a significant step in its capital market activities [1][4] - The total amount of the bond issuance is RMB 300 million, with a maturity of 180 days, aimed at supplementing the company's operating funds and optimizing its debt structure [1] - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank acted as the lead underwriter and book manager, providing strong support through its capital market experience and professional underwriting capabilities [1] Group 2 - This issuance represents Zhongli Leasing's first foray into super short-term financing bonds, reflecting its proactive exploration in optimizing debt structure and enhancing fund management efficiency [4] - The successful issuance has broadened Zhongli Leasing's financing channels and improved its liquidity management capabilities, providing robust financial support for future business expansion [4] - The company is committed to serving small and micro enterprises by alleviating their funding pressures and will continue to innovate financing products and service models [4]

格隆汇7月4日丨融创中国(01918.HK)公布，有关融创房地产(公司全资附属公司)进行的境内债务重组。 如先前公告所述，境内债务重组方案经相关境内债券持有人会议审议通过后，融创房地产将安排境内债 券持有人就其持有的境内债券在债券购回(即现金要约收购)、股票经济收益权兑付及以资抵债等重组方 案选项中进行选择。 融创房地产已于2025年4月根据债券购回选项的安排以人民币约8亿元购回金额约人民币40亿元的境内债 券。目前，就股票选项而言，根据境内债务重组的条款，选择股票选项的每人民币100元面值的境内债 券可以获得对应的13.5股本公司股份的处置所得资金净额收益权。 为了配合境内债务重组中的股票选项的有序实施，于2025年7月3日，公司与特殊目的公司订立认购协 议，据此，特殊目的公司有条件同意认购，而公司有条件同意配发及发行合共754,468,943股股份。特殊 目的公司处置该等股份所获资金净额等额的境内资金将用于偿付选择股票选项的境内债券持有人所持有 的合计金额约人民币56亿元的相关境内债券。认购股份将根据一般授权配发及发行。 据悉，特殊目的公司为一间于英属维尔京群岛注册成立的有限公司， 其全部已发行股本由晟嘉 ...

当前国际局势风云变化，全球经济的不稳定因素与日俱增，中美贸易摩擦、美国债务水平逼近临界值…… 每一次金融动荡都在牵动着世界的神经。人们不禁要问，是什么力量在背后操控着国家的经济命运？为何 有些国家深陷债务泥潭，而有些国家却能稳步前行？ 全球知名对冲基金公司桥水创始人瑞·达利欧的新书《国家为什么会破产：大周期》提前为我们揭开了经济 危机的神秘面纱，提供了独特的视角和深刻的洞见，让我们得以窥见下一场债务危机风暴的迹象，以及国 家破产背后权力兴衰的秘密。 01 大债务周期及其演进路径 债务周期是国家经济运行的重要规律。大债务周期，指的是在长时间（即连续的短期债务周期）内积累债 务资产和债务负债，直到其规模最终变得不可控。这会导致大规模的债务重组和债务货币化，从而引发一 段时期的市场和经济动荡。在大债务周期的早期阶段，债务负担较轻，信贷资金尚能投向高回报项目，此 时举债空间较为充裕；而到了周期后期，当债务及偿债成本相对于收入水平及可偿债资产价值显著上升 时，违约风险将显著加剧，国家将面临破产风险。 借贷消费能产生即时快感，若缺乏约束，债务及偿债支 出便会像恶性肿瘤一般持续蚕食实际购买力，逐步挤压正常消费空间——这正是 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent international conference was to address the debt crisis faced by developing countries, emphasizing the need for measures to alleviate debt burdens and create financial space for sustainable development [1][3] - The external sovereign debt of developing countries reached $11.4 trillion in 2023, with debt repayment costs more than doubling since 2014, leading to $1.7 trillion used for debt servicing in 2023 alone [1][3] - The report highlighted that over two-thirds of low-income countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of it, with 3.4 billion people living in countries where interest payments exceed spending on health or education [3][6] Group 2 - The situation has worsened from last year, with developing countries spending $921 billion on debt repayment in 2023, up from $847 billion in 2022, while the funding gap for achieving sustainable development goals has exceeded $4 trillion [6][9] - Official development assistance has stagnated, with a 7.1% decline in 2024, marking the first decrease in years, and projected aid spending for 2025 could be 20% lower than in 2023 [6][9] - The report identified that 54% of external public debt in developing countries is held by private creditors, complicating and slowing down the debt restructuring process [8][9] Group 3 - The report proposed 11 actionable recommendations aimed at reforming the multilateral financial system, enhancing cooperation among borrowing countries, and encouraging policy reforms for better debt management [9] - The recommendations are designed to provide short-term relief for indebted countries while expanding access to affordable financing in the long term [9]