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A股市场缩量调整后或如何演绎?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-10-20 06:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent volume contraction in the A-share market is a result of technical corrections in over - rising sectors, cautious market sentiment due to Sino - US relations and external uncertainties, and a slowdown in incremental funds. However, it is not a trend reversal. Policy and fundamental factors are expected to boost market confidence, and trading volume may gradually recover [7][8][10]. - It is recommended to continue focusing on two main investment lines: the non - ferrous metals sector and leading stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major A - share indices rose last week, with the Shanghai 50 having the largest increase (weekly return of - 0.24%). Among major industries, the financial and energy indices performed relatively well (weekly returns of 1.91% and 1.63% respectively), while the information technology and telecommunications service indices performed poorly (weekly returns of - 6.70% and - 4.79% respectively). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries rose, with banks, coal, and food and beverage having larger increases of 4.89%, 4.17%, and 0.86% respectively; electronics, media, and automobiles had larger declines of 7.14%, 6.27%, and 5.99% respectively [11][16][18]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 2192.852 billion yuan (previous value: 2602.982 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (93.40% of the three - year historical quantile) [21]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of October 17, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 21.96, a decrease of - 0.51 from the previous week, at the 89.20% quantile of the past 5 - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries saw valuation (PE_TTM) recoveries [26]. Market Observation - **Analysis of Volume Contraction Adjustment**: Last week, the trading volume of major A - share indices declined comprehensively, especially in small - cap and ChiNext and STAR Market sectors. The decline in trading volume was mainly due to technical corrections in over - rising sectors, cautious market sentiment caused by Sino - US relations and external uncertainties, and a slowdown in incremental funds, including cautious northbound funds, cooling margin trading, and increased shareholder reduction pressure [7]. - **Positive Factors**: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee may bring continuous policy support in areas such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing. As the third - quarter earnings reports are intensively disclosed, corporate profit situations are becoming clearer, with 82.54% of the 126 companies that have released earnings forecasts reporting positive news. These factors may attract off - market funds to re - enter the market and increase trading volume [8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Despite the volume contraction adjustment last week, it is not a trend reversal. It is recommended to focus on the non - ferrous metals sector and leading stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [10]. Economic Calendar - **Domestic Economic Data**: Key domestic economic data to be released this week include China's unemployment rate, year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, year - on - year growth rate of quarterly GDP, 1 - year loan prime rate (LPR), and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment [28]. - **Domestic Important Events**: The National Bureau of Statistics of China will hold a press conference on the economic operation situation [28]. - **Overseas Economic Data**: Overseas economic data to be released include the year - on - year growth rate of US industrial output, unadjusted year - on - year CPI in the US, and Markit composite PMI [28]. - **Overseas Important Events**: Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve for Financial Supervision, will give a speech [28].
第138届广交会一期境外采购商线下到会超15.7万人
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-20 04:36
第138届广交会分三期在广州举办,第一期以"先进制造"为主题,展览总面积52万平方米,展位数量超 2.5万个,参展企业约1.2万家,拥有国家级高新技术企业、制造业单项冠军、专精特新"小巨人"等称号 优质特色企业超5500家,比上届增加400家,占本届广交会优质特色企业总数的55%。 北京商报讯(记者张绪旺)第138届广交会第一期于10月19日闭幕,据承办方中国对外贸易中心统计,境 外采购商累计线下参会约15.79万人,来自全球222个国家和地区,环比增长6.3%。 ...
A股午评 | 创业板指半日涨2.49% 科技股大幅反弹 贵金属板块走弱
智通财经网· 2025-10-20 03:44
10月20日,A股、港股全线反攻,A股市场逾4200股飘红,半日成交额1.16万亿,较上个交易日缩量165 亿。截至午间收盘,沪指涨0.69%,深成指涨1.38%,创业板指涨2.49%。港股方面,恒生指数涨逾 2%,恒生科技指数一度大涨近4%。 市场分析认为,三大利好消息提振市场: 3、科技股迎密集利好。兴业证券研报称,海外大客户近期上修2026年1.6T光模块采购计划;10月份以 来国内高校芯片领域科研成果井喷;瑞银将中国科技股评级上调至"最具吸引力"。 盘面上,科技股大幅反弹,其中,CPO等算力硬件领涨,剑桥科技等多股涨停,"易中天"股价大幅拉 升;半导体板块走高,存储芯片方向领涨,三孚股份4连板;机器人板块再度走强,大洋电机等涨停; 此外,消费电子、脑机接口、量子科技等方向均有所表现。其他热点方面,海南自贸概念延续上周强 势,海汽集团涨停;煤炭股继续活跃,大有能源7天6板;固态电池概念拉升,海科新源20%涨停;商业 航天、卫星导航板块冲高,星网宇达涨停。下跌方面,贵金属板块走弱,湖南白银跌停,中药、银行等 板块飘绿。 展望后市,中泰证券认为,政策面、基本面多重因素交织,有望提振资金信心,建议继续关注有色 ...
A股开盘速递 | A股震荡拉升 创业板指涨超2%!CPO等算力硬件股反弹
智通财经网· 2025-10-20 01:51
展望后市,中泰证券认为,政策面、基本面多重因素交织,有望提振资金信心,建议继续关注有色金属 与科技成长两大主线。 热门板块 1、煤炭板块延续强势 10月20日,A股早盘震荡反弹,截至9:31,沪指涨0.65%,深成指涨1.38%,创业板指上涨2.23%。 盘面上,煤炭板块延续上周强势,大有能源7天6板;CPO等算力硬件股反弹,中际旭创涨超6%;卫星 导航板块拉升,天奥电子、星网宇达双双涨停。下跌方面,贵金属、银行、工业金属等板块飘绿。 1、兴业证券:以我为主,布局内部的确定性 兴业证券认为,往后看,海外扰动影响最大的时刻或正在过去,后续美联储议息会议、APEC峰会也将 提供顺风环境。而国内也即将进入党的二十届四中全会、三季报景气验证等积极因素密集催化的阶段, 市场对于景气主线的共识也有望再一次凝聚。后续应对思路仍是以我为主,布局内部的确定性。景气和 产业趋势仍是核心。当前重视军工、国产算力产业链为代表的自主可控、"十五五"规划受益品种,以及 创新药、北美算力链、游戏、电池等三季报景气品种。 2、中泰证券:政策面、基本面多重因素交织,有望提振资金信心 中泰证券认为,政策面,二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日 ...
第138届广交会一期闭幕 到会境外采购商约15.79万人
Group 1 - The 138th Canton Fair's first phase concluded on the 19th, with approximately 157,900 overseas buyers attending, representing a 6.3% increase from the previous event [2] - The first phase focused on "advanced manufacturing," covering an exhibition area of 520,000 square meters with over 25,000 booths and around 12,000 participating companies [2] - Key exhibition sectors included electronic appliances, industrial manufacturing, lighting and electrical, hardware tools, and vehicles, with "smart living" and "service robots" being popular areas [2] Group 2 - The second phase of the Canton Fair is scheduled from October 23 to 27, showcasing household goods, gifts and decorations, building materials, and furniture [2] - The third phase will take place from October 31 to November 4, focusing on toys and products for infants and children, home textiles, and stationery [2]
第三届国防邮电产业复合材料职工职业技能竞赛决赛举行
Liao Ning Ri Bao· 2025-10-20 01:07
近日,第三届国防邮电产业复合材料职工职业技能竞赛决赛在沈阳举行。赛事由中国国防邮电工 会、国家国防科技工业局直属机关工会、中国航空工业集团共同主办,航空工业沈飞集团承办,已成为 国内国防邮电领域复合材料技能人才展示技艺、交流提升的重要平台。 复合材料作为现代航空器与高端装备的关键材料,其制造与检测水平直接体现国家先进制造能力。 本届竞赛不仅是对选手个人技能的检验,也是对行业整体技能水平的一次集中检阅。比赛吸引全国8家 中央企业集团及12个省级产业的55名顶尖技能人才同台竞技。比赛现场,复合材料铺叠成型、装配钳 工、无损检测三大实操赛项同步展开。赛事设计紧密对接生产一线,操作技能考核权重高达70%,重点 检验选手在实际场景中解决复杂工艺难题的能力与心理素质。 ...
【策略】短期调整,无需悲观——策略周专题(2025年10月第2期)(张宇生/王国兴)
光大证券研究· 2025-10-19 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a pullback due to declining risk appetite, increased uncertainty in US-China relations, and a general market sentiment decline, with major indices showing a downward trend [4][5]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a significant decline this week, with the STAR Market 50 index dropping the most at 6.2%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least at 0.2%. The overall valuation of the market is at a historically high level since 2010 [4]. - Market styles have diverged, with value stocks performing better. Large-cap value stocks increased by 2.1%, while mid-cap growth stocks decreased by 5.8% [4]. Short-term Market Outlook - The A-share market has shown notable volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3900 points, a level not seen since August 2015, before falling back below that threshold [5]. - Increased market volatility is attributed to high valuations and rising uncertainties in US-China relations, with the VIX index also showing a significant increase [5]. - Historically, pullbacks during bull markets are common, typically occurring after 60-80 trading days into a bull market, with a usual retracement of 6-7% before resuming upward movement [5][6]. Current Market Phase - The market is likely still in a bull phase, although it may enter a wide-ranging fluctuation stage in the short term. The maximum drawdown observed so far is 4.01%, which is within historical norms [6]. Sector Focus - In the short term, the focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, as historically, these sectors perform better during market fluctuations. High-dividend stocks and consumer sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and beauty care are expected to benefit from increased domestic demand [7][8]. - In the medium term, attention should be directed towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors, which may gain traction due to liquidity-driven trends and ongoing developments in AI [8].
第138届广交会一期闭幕到会境外采购商近16万人
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-19 18:00
Core Insights - The 138th Canton Fair's first phase concluded on October 19, with approximately 157,900 overseas buyers attending, representing a 6.3% increase compared to previous events [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The 138th Canton Fair is held in three phases in Guangzhou, with the first phase focusing on "advanced manufacturing" [1] - The total exhibition area for the first phase is 520,000 square meters, featuring over 25,000 booths and around 12,000 participating companies [1] Group 2: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition includes five main sectors: electronic appliances, industrial manufacturing, lighting and electrical, hardware tools, and vehicles and motorcycles, with 19 exhibition areas [1] - Popular sections of the exhibition include "smart living" and "service robots" [1]
第138届广交会一期闭幕 到会境外采购商近16万人
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-19 17:38
Core Insights - The 138th Canton Fair's first phase concluded on October 19, with approximately 157,900 overseas buyers attending, representing a 6.3% increase compared to previous events [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The 138th Canton Fair is held in three phases in Guangzhou, with the first phase focusing on "advanced manufacturing" [1] - The total exhibition area for the first phase is 520,000 square meters, featuring over 25,000 booths and around 12,000 participating companies [1] Group 2: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition covers five main sectors: electronic appliances, industrial manufacturing, lighting and electrical, hardware tools, and vehicles including motorcycles, with a total of 19 exhibition areas [1] - Popular sections of the exhibition include "smart living" and "service robots," indicating trends in consumer interest and technological advancement [1]
第138届广交会一期到会境外采购商约15.79万人
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-10-19 11:23
Core Insights - The 138th Canton Fair's first phase concluded on October 19, with approximately 157,900 overseas buyers attending, representing a 6.3% increase compared to previous events [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The 138th Canton Fair is being held in three phases in Guangzhou, with the first phase focusing on "advanced manufacturing" [1] - The total exhibition area for the first phase is 520,000 square meters, featuring over 25,000 booths and around 12,000 participating companies [1] Group 2: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition includes five sectors: electronic appliances, industrial manufacturing, lighting and electrical, hardware tools, and vehicles and motorcycles, with 19 exhibition areas [1] - Popular sections of the exhibition include "smart living" and "service robots," indicating trends in consumer interest and technological advancement [1]