在美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）如期宣布降息并上调美国经济增长预期后，铜价逼近历史新高，其他 金属价格也随之走高。 在伦敦市场，这一工业金属价格一度上涨 1.5%，突破每吨 11700 美元，接近本周一创下的历史纪录。 美联储已连续第三次降息，但在政策声明中微调措辞，暗示未来降息的不确定性有所增加，其政策目标 是在控制通胀的同时为经济增长提供支持。 美联储目前预计，明年美国经济将增长 2.3%，高于此前 1.8% 的预测值；同时预计通胀增速将放缓至 2.4%。降息往往对金属及其他大宗商品有利，一方面会提升其相对债券等生息资产的吸引力，另一方 面也会降低资本密集型制造和工业企业的融资成本。 此前数月中国铜消费量大幅下滑，而此次美国经济的乐观前景也提振了工业金属的需求预期。中国政府 于本周一释放信号，将坚持 "积极" 的财政政策取向和 "适度宽松" 的货币政策基调，着力提振内需。 今年以来，受多起矿山生产中断事件影响，且市场担忧明年潜在关税落地前贸易商纷纷向美国输送铜、 导致境外供应短缺，铜价已累计上涨超 30%。从长期来看，可再生能源行业消费需求的攀升正为这一 红色金属的需求提供支撑。 责任编辑：郭明煜 在美国联 ...

作者 | 贝隆行业研究 "到2030年，全球可再生能源发电装机容量将翻番，增加4600GW。" 国际能源署（IEA）在《2025年可再生能源：到2030年的分析与预测》中描绘了一幅可再生能源高歌猛进的宏大图景，光伏、风能作为可再生能源的主要 组成部分，无疑是这场能源"狂欢"的主角。 但与此同时，风光占比的快速增长给电网系统带来了严峻挑战。国际能源署在报告中指出，到2030年，间歇性可再生能源将供应全球近30%的电力，是当 前水平的2倍。若缺乏有效的平抑手段，"弃风弃光"现象无疑会愈演愈烈。 这场"发电狂欢"与"消纳困境"的矛盾背后，指向一个核心命题：新能源的波动性需要长时储能来驯服。 "当前中国弃风弃光现象与电力紧缺矛盾并存，根源在于缺乏能够长时间平抑能量波动的储能技术。"中国科学院院士赵天寿的论断，道出了行业共识。业 内普遍认为，当新能源发电占比超过20%时，4小时以上长时储能将成为刚需；占比突破50%后，8小时以上长时储能必不可少。 那么，企业究竟如何破局？带着这个问题，笔者对海辰储能进行了调研。笔者发现，这家被称为"锂电长时储能创领者"的企业，早已开始了相关布局，为 行业提供一个兼具技术可行性与商业落地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that copper is an undervalued investment opportunity, poised for significant growth due to its essential role in the electrification and AI revolution, contrasting it with gold, which is driven more by emotional and speculative factors [1][4][40]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the increasing energy needs of AI data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sources, with projections indicating global copper consumption will rise from 33 million tons in 2024 to 41 million tons by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% [23][24]. - AI models require substantial energy, with a single training session consuming about 12,000 MWh, equivalent to the daily electricity consumption of a medium-sized city, leading to a projected increase in global data center electricity consumption from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030 [7][9]. - Electric vehicles consume four times more copper than traditional vehicles, with an estimated additional demand of 200,000 to 300,000 tons of copper by 2030 due to the anticipated 55.7% penetration rate of electric vehicles [17][19]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The average grade of copper ore has declined from 0.95% in the early 2000s to 0.60% in 2024, meaning more ore must be mined to extract the same amount of copper, effectively doubling the workload and costs [25][28]. - The development of new copper mines is increasingly challenging, with an average exploration to production timeline of 20-30 years, and many potential projects remain in the planning stages [27][28]. - The global copper concentrate supply is expected to face a shortfall, with a projected deficit of 1.2 million tons by 2040, which is 30% of total demand, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [37][38]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investing in copper is seen as a more stable and necessary choice compared to gold, as copper's price is driven by fundamental demand rather than speculative trends, making it suitable for long-term investment [40][42]. - The current copper price of approximately $11,000 per ton is still below historical highs, suggesting significant upside potential as supply constraints become more pronounced [43][44]. - Various investment avenues are available for copper, including mining stocks, ETFs, and futures, allowing investors of different risk tolerances to participate in the copper market [46][47]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on upstream copper mining companies with integrated operations, as they are likely to benefit directly from rising copper prices [49][50]. - Attention should also be given to downstream sectors that utilize copper, such as data centers and electric vehicle manufacturers, which are expected to experience high growth due to increased copper demand [52]. - For risk-averse investors, copper ETFs provide a diversified investment option, while more experienced investors may consider futures and options to enhance capital efficiency [53][54].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are rising due to concerns over tight supply in the spot market following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In early trading, futures on the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.5% to $11,616 per ton [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2% to 98.67, making commodities cheaper for overseas buyers [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Lower interest rates typically boost economic activity and demand [1] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that the market is optimistic about long-term copper demand driven by renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers, despite weak economic data from China [1] - Supply concerns are heightened due to production disruptions at various global mines, contributing to sustained high prices [1]

"当前全球石油市场供应过剩，这体现在50到60美元的油价区间内。市场可能需要一到两年才能重新平衡。"但耶金强调，地缘 政治带来了巨大的不确定性，"委内瑞拉局势、对俄罗斯的制裁、俄乌冲突都可能随时改变市场走势。" 他判断："这是一个既供应过剩、也风险过剩的市场。" 谈及2060年的能源格局，耶金认为三大趋势将推动长期变革：第一，可再生能源将继续扩张，核能迎来回归；第二，油气仍将 保持需求增长，且上游投资缺口巨大；第三，AI将成为深刻改变能源体系的关键力量，既推升电力需求，也将重塑能源企业的 运营模式。 耶金称，国际能源署发布报告指出，为维持当前石油天然气产量，全球需在2050年前每年投入约5400亿美元用于勘探开发。当 前，一些公司正在从过度快速向可再生能源转型的战略中回撤，重新对油气勘探表现出兴趣，同时继续探索多元化技术路线。 此外，耶金还特别强调矿产资源的重要性快速上升，包括铜在内的关键矿产将在全球电气化进程中发挥核心作用。"铜在未来电 气化体系中将发挥关键作用。未来能源体系必须同时考虑传统能源、可再生能源以及关键矿产。" 标普全球副董事长、著名能源专家丹尼尔·耶金(Daniel Yergin) 南方财经 ...

Core Insights - The global offshore wind power industry is accelerating, with a cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 83.2 GW by the end of 2024, providing clean electricity to over 73 million households. Floating wind power installations have reached 27.8 MW across seven countries. China continues to lead, with a cumulative grid-connected capacity of 44.61 million kW by September 2025, accounting for half of the global new installations in 2024 [1][10][11]. Market Overview - Offshore wind power is increasingly recognized as a clean energy source with significant growth potential, becoming a focal point for many countries. Despite a temporary slowdown in new installations in 2024 due to supply chain and policy adjustments, the industry shows strong long-term growth resilience, with a cumulative installed capacity increase of 12% year-on-year [23][24]. - In 2024, global offshore wind power installations totaled 8 GW, a 26% decrease from 2023, with China leading at approximately 4 GW, followed by the UK with 1.2 GW [23][24]. Industry Chain Development - The global offshore wind power supply chain is evolving from a single manufacturing focus to an integrated system encompassing development, manufacturing, construction, and operation. Key components include turbines, towers, and subsea cables, but regional imbalances persist, with Asia primarily supplying equipment while Europe and North America lead in technology development [33][34]. - The supply chain faces challenges such as financing difficulties, slow policy approvals, and instability in the supply of key materials and high-end talent. By 2030, many countries outside China will encounter bottlenecks in their supply chains, particularly in Latin America, where onshore wind capacity is limited and offshore projects are virtually non-existent [33][34][49]. Latin America Development - Latin America has abundant wind energy resources, with a cumulative installed capacity of 25 GW for onshore wind, predominantly in Brazil. However, the region's offshore wind supply chain is almost non-existent, facing significant challenges such as weak local manufacturing and insufficient infrastructure [49][50]. - The region's offshore wind projects are in the early planning stages, with countries like Colombia, Brazil, and Chile exploring integration with green hydrogen strategies. The first demonstration projects are expected to start before 2030 [52][53]. Future Outlook - The global offshore wind market is projected to add over 350 GW of new installations from 2025 to 2034, with floating wind power expected to achieve large-scale development by 2030. China's target for offshore wind capacity is set at 150 GW by 2030, with a continuous decline in the cost of electricity generation [2][10]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards deep-sea, intelligent, and integrated development, with the "offshore wind +" model creating a new energy ecosystem. China is anticipated to play a leading role in promoting global supply chain cooperation and sustainable development [2][10].

风电股早盘走强，截至发稿，金风科技（002202）(02208)涨7.3%，报13.53港元；东方电气（600875） (01072)涨6.29%，报22.32港元；大唐新能源(01798)涨0.93%，报2.17港元。 此前，在北京举行的2025海上风电产业发展论坛上，《风能北京宣言2.0》正式对外发布，明确提出"十 五五"期间我国海上风电年新增装机1500万千瓦的目标，这意味着到2030年，我国海上风电累计装机规 模将突破1亿千瓦，万亿级产业链正迎来加速发展的黄金期。根据《"十五五"可再生能源发展规划》， 到2030年，我国非化石能源消费比重将达到25%，海上风电将贡献重要力量。 消息面上，近日，第十届海上风电工程技术大会在武汉举行。在专题讨论中，专家们深入探讨了海上风 电与海洋牧场、氢能、储能等业态的协同发展潜力。12月8日，在大连举行的海上风电现代产业链共链 行动大会上，三峡集团发起成立了由26家企业和科研院所组成的产业链联盟，涵盖规划设计、装备制 造、投资运营等全环节。联盟当天发布的《2025年度海上风电技术攻关清单》，明确了16项重点攻关项 目，聚焦核心轴承、国产化绝缘材料、柔性直流送出系统等"卡 ...

此前，在北京举行的2025海上风电产业发展论坛上，《风能北京宣言2.0》正式对外发布，明确提出"十 五五"期间我国海上风电年新增装机1500万千瓦的目标，这意味着到2030年，我国海上风电累计装机规 模将突破1亿千瓦，万亿级产业链正迎来加速发展的黄金期。根据《"十五五"可再生能源发展规划》， 到2030年，我国非化石能源消费比重将达到25%，海上风电将贡献重要力量。 智通财经APP获悉，风电股早盘走强，截至发稿，金风科技(02208)涨7.3%，报13.53港元；东方电气 (01072)涨6.29%，报22.32港元；大唐新能源(01798)涨0.93%，报2.17港元。 消息面上，近日，第十届海上风电工程技术大会在武汉举行。在专题讨论中，专家们深入探讨了海上风 电与海洋牧场、氢能、储能等业态的协同发展潜力。12月8日，在大连举行的海上风电现代产业链共链 行动大会上，三峡集团发起成立了由26家企业和科研院所组成的产业链联盟，涵盖规划设计、装备制 造、投资运营等全环节。联盟当天发布的《2025年度海上风电技术攻关清单》，明确了16项重点攻关项 目，聚焦核心轴承、国产化绝缘材料、柔性直流送出系统等"卡脖子"环节。 ...

ING预计，2026年除非新矿提前放量，否则TC/RC仍将"贴地飞行"，中国冶炼厂即便兑现"联合减产 10%"的口头协议，被挤出的精矿也会流向海外炼厂，全球精炼铜实际产出未必会伤筋动骨。 价格层面，ING把2026年伦铜均价锚定在11500美元/吨，节奏上先扬后抑：二季度库存外溢效应最强， 现货紧张或把价格推至12000美元高点;下半年关税路径明朗，若豁免兑现，溢价回吐，铜价温和回落。 上行风险来自中国冶炼厂真刀真枪减产、矿山再出黑天鹅，以及电网、AI数据中心等长赛道需求突然 加速;下行风险则是中国需求退坡、美国关税政策反转导致库存回流，再加上宏观逆风共振。 长期来看，ING认为电气化、可再生能源与算力基建将给铜需求提供"结构性安全带"，故事远未结束， 但2026年这趟车，注定在"供给惊险"与"需求犹豫"之间颠簸前行。 矿山端的"血崩"只是故事的上半集，贸易流的重塑才是下半集的主线。特朗普年初扬言对铜课税，贸易 商抢在关税落地前把精炼铜狂运美国，1—8月美国精炼铜进口同比猛增逾五成，COMEX库存因此飙涨 300%，突破40万吨创历史新高，把美国本土价格硬生生抬出每吨2500美元的溢价;而LME与SHFE库存 ...

韩国《今日财经》12月4日报道，韩国政府为达成2040年全面关停燃煤电厂并实现2035年国家温室 气体减排目标（较2018年削减68.8%至75.3%）的计划，正推动长期依赖煤炭的五大发电公企（南东、 南部、中部、西部、东西发电）加速业务重组。这些公司的战略核心正从煤电全面转向可再生与清洁能 源，在国内积极扩大海上风电、太阳能、清洁氢能及储能系统（BESS）的投资与布局，同时在海外中 东、东南亚及北美等地开拓新能源业务。为提升转型效率与运营竞争力，各企业也纷纷引入人工智能 （AI）等创新技术，以优化电力系统管理与资产运营。 在"2040全面退煤"与"2035年温室气体减排68.8%至75.3%"的国家目标驱动下，韩国五大发电公企 （南东、南部、中部、西部、东西发电）正加速推进具体战略转型：南东发电提出"2040未来路"愿景， 目标将70%以上装机转为新能源；南部发电在"2035战略"中明确20TWh无碳发电与3000MW能源转化规 模；中部发电计划2035年前实现30%电量来自可再生能源，并发展虚拟电厂与长时储能；西部发电通 过"RE4040"战略将可再生能源比重提至40%；东西发电则目标在2040年前将无碳 ...