Core Viewpoint - The once-coveted high-rise elevator apartments are now facing unprecedented challenges, including a significant drop in prices and transaction volumes, with declines exceeding 30% from historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a "volume and price decline" phase, with a sharp drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The market trend reflects the foresight of industry figures like Cao Dewang, who warned about the potential devaluation of properties [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Decline - **High Shared Area Costs**: The common area in elevator apartments can be as high as 25% or more, leading to hidden costs for buyers. For a 100 square meter apartment, usable space may only be 70-75 square meters, resulting in additional expenses that can reach tens of thousands of yuan [4]. - **Safety Risks**: High-rise buildings pose significant safety hazards during emergencies, as elevators may fail during disasters, and rescue operations are limited to certain heights, increasing evacuation difficulties [5][6]. - **Inconvenient Access**: Residents often face issues with elevator malfunctions and congestion during peak hours, leading to delays in daily commutes and impacting quality of life [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Aging elevator apartments are unlikely to see large-scale redevelopment due to high costs, leading to a situation where maintenance becomes a burden on residents. This could result in a demographic shift, with economically stable residents moving out, leaving behind lower-income tenants and potentially transforming these areas into "slums" [11].

纯碱 2509（SA509） 1.2 期货行情数据 | | 表 1: 纯碱期货当日行情表 20250625 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | | 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 日增仓 成交量 | | | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 铝菌 | | 纯碱2508 | 1171 | 3 0.26% 11699 | -29 | 2655 | 1166 | 1173 | 1159 | 1166 | | 纯碱2509 M | 1166 | 1 0.09% 1561404 -7874 953401 | | | 1158 | 1168 | 1152 | 1160 | | 纯碱2601 | 1159 | 2 0.17% 557916 2848 125828 | | | 1150 | 1160 | 1146 | 1154 | | | | | | | | | 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 | | 1.3 现货市场方面 6 月 25 日国内纯碱企业报价延续低位态势,其中轻碱主流出厂 价格在 1250- 135 ...

关税战走势及全球大类资产展望 - 2025 年宏观中期策略 20260626 摘要 美国债务面临巨大体量、高利息支出和短期债务到期量高等困难，特朗 普政府虽采取博弈、关税战等措施，但未能从根本上解决财政问题，稳 定币的作用有限，难以改善长期美债风险。 下半年美国经济可能因前期透支而放缓，通胀和经济回落或促使美联储 在 7 月至 9 月降息，短端利率可能回弱，但海外投资者减持长端美债， 长端利率仍需谨慎。 今年以来，美股、美债、美元表现分化，反映了定价维度和可替代性的 差异。美股受短期经济影响，美元受长期信用风险影响，全球投资分散 化趋势明显，资金流向亚洲、欧洲及黄金等商品。 美债和美元走势由负相关转为正相关，表明风险溢价上升。美股与黄金 呈现更明显的负相关性和可替代性，黄金与比特币的相关性由负转正， 成为共同避险资产。 人民币资产重估受益于人民币国际化机遇和中国科技军事根基的稳固， 中国被加征关税商品出口份额未降反升，关税战并未削弱中国制造业和 出口的长期优势。 特朗普回归后，美国债务面临三个主要困难：第一是债务体量巨大，美国政府 债务接近 37 万亿，占 GDP 的 122%；第二是利息支出高，美债平均付息 ...

招商蛇口 20250625 摘要 招商蛇口 2025 年销售策略侧重提升去化率，总可售货值预计 3,300 亿 元。公司通过加快存货去化和核心城市布局，优化资产结构，但未提供 明确销售指引，销售额将取决于去化表现。 招商蛇口 2025 年加大补货力度，视其为重要窗口期，1-5 月投资强度 显著提升。策略基于核心城市优质土地供应增加、公司资金面良好及存 在获取优质大型项目机会。 招商蛇口认为核心城市房地产市场具备止跌回稳基础，新房价格回调幅 度大，品质提升，需求释放。前端数据表现出较强韧性，预计 2025 年 市场将止跌回稳。 招商蛇口 2025 年资产端加快盘活和资金周转，提升资产质量；负债端 优化债务结构，降低资金成本。2024 年融资成本为 2.99%，公司希望 保持融资成本优势。 2025 年 5 月统计局数据显示新房价格面临调整压力，可能与优质新房 项目上市对老旧房源价格形成挤压有关。核心城市及区位较好项目价格 未出现边际走强或短期打折情况。 Q&A 2025 年中国房地产市场，特别是核心城市的表现呈现出哪些主要特征和波动？ 2025 年以来，中国房地产市场，特别是核心城市的数据表现出止跌回稳的特 征 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-5月，百城宅地成交建面同比-3.4%，成交楼面均价同比+26.2% 2025年1-5月，百城住宅类用地成交建面为6,991万平，累计同比-3.4%；成交楼面均价为7,466元/平方米， 累计同比+26.2%。分能级城市来看，1-5月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为464万平，累计同比+5.3%；成交建面为305万平，累计同比-12.6%；成 交楼面均价为42,605元/平方米，累计同比+50.6%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为4,105万平，累计同比-2.9%；成交建面为3,197万平，累计同比+7.1%； 成交楼面均价为8,735元/平方米，累计同比+19.1%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为3,89 ...

Core Insights - The Australian housing market is showing signs of recovery, with national house prices increasing by 0.5% in May and a total rise of 1.7% in the first five months of the year, indicating growing market confidence [3][5] - First-time homebuyers are increasingly entering the market, with a 16% growth in loans since February, while overall borrower loans have increased by 32%, driven by recent interest rate cuts and government schemes [5][7] Market Trends - The current trend shows a significant influx of buyers into popular property markets, particularly in regional areas, as interest rates are expected to decrease further [1][8] - The top ten hottest regional property markets in 2025 so far are dominated by Queensland locations, with Toowoomba, Burnett, and Springfield-Redbank leading in loan activity [10][11] Buyer Sentiment - First-time buyers like Emily are motivated by the affordability and lifestyle benefits of moving to regional areas, which offer a better work-life balance and proximity to family [12][14] - The ongoing momentum in the housing market is a positive sign, but challenges remain regarding housing supply and affordability, which require time and effective policies to address [14]

Economic Performance - Recent data shows a significant rebound in consumption growth, with the service production index accelerating and urban unemployment rate declining, indicating strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate could reach 5.2% in the first half of the year, with potential for upward revision, reflecting optimism about economic resilience [3] - In May, China's retail sales growth surged to 6.4%, marking the highest level for the year [3] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China and six departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, focusing on enhancing macroeconomic financial foundations and optimizing insurance guarantees [5] - The implementation of these measures is expected to unleash consumption potential and promote healthy economic development [5] Real Estate Market - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange proposed to lift restrictions on foreign capital investment in non-self-use residential properties, indicating a potential influx of foreign investment into China's real estate market [7] - Despite the easing of restrictions, the actual inflow of foreign capital will depend on various influencing factors [7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a continued downturn in the housing market until 2035, while Morgan Stanley suggests the market is beginning to stabilize, with expectations of differentiation in the future [7] Future Outlook - Current economic conditions are deemed more important than future predictions, with the belief that effective policy implementation will lead to steady economic growth and gradual resolution of real estate issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market continues to face severe adjustments, with average second-hand residential prices in 100 cities dropping to 15,173 yuan per square meter, marking a 22-month consecutive month-on-month decline [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In February, the average price of second-hand residential properties fell to 15,173 yuan per square meter, with 99 out of 100 cities experiencing month-on-month price declines [1]. - The number of cities with declining prices has exceeded 90 for nine consecutive months, indicating a persistent downturn in the market [1]. - Despite various government policies aimed at stimulating demand, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspectives - There are two contrasting viewpoints regarding investment decisions in the current market. One perspective suggests that favorable policies signal a good time to buy, especially as bank deposit rates decline [3]. - Conversely, a cautious viewpoint highlights the significant risk of a real estate bubble, suggesting that storing funds in a bank is a safer option compared to purchasing property [5]. - Notable entrepreneur Cao Dewang argues that real estate has become a "hot potato" among the wealthy, and its value may ultimately depreciate, recommending that individuals with 1 million yuan should consider saving rather than buying property [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Storing 1 million yuan in a bank could yield approximately 20,500 yuan in annual interest at a 2.05% interest rate, which can help cover living expenses [7]. - Purchasing property would likely lead to substantial mortgage debt, significantly reducing disposable income and increasing financial pressure [7]. - In the current market environment, saving money in a bank is viewed as a more prudent and stable choice compared to buying real estate, which is perceived as less reliable for value retention [9].

在6月23日观点指数研究院发布的《民企抢地 | 2025年6月房地产企业新增土地储备报告》中，我们发现 从权益拿地金额来看，今年5月国企、城投、民企和混改房企的占比分别为66.87%、10%、20%和 3.13%。值得注意的的是，民企拿地比例居于顺位第二，此前多为城投企业。 观点指数发布的房地产企业新增土地储备报告显示，报告期内前50房企单月新增土地建筑面积260.13万 平方米，环比下降42.7%。 值得注意的是，前50房企1-5月新增土地建筑面积2551.54万平方米，同比上升15.28%。 其中，保利发展控股、中海地产、绿城中国新增的全口径土地储备分别为195.65万平方米、158.78万平 方米、148.19万平方米，处于领先位置。 从权益拿地金额来看，1-5月土地投资力度最大的企业为保利发展控股、绿城中国、中海地产、华润置 地及滨江集团，权益拓储金额分别为367.22、313.18、290.8、289.23和269.68亿元。另外，建发房产和 中国金茂紧随其后，权益拿地金额分别为241.375亿元、220.15亿元。 从新增货值来看，1-5月土地货值增加最多的企业为保利发展控股、中海地产、中国金茂、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in the first half of 2025 shows signs of stabilization, with nearly 45% of the top 100 companies experiencing year-on-year growth, although challenges remain due to buyer confidence and inventory pressures [1][9][13]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to May 2025 was 13,137.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while the total sales amount was 14,113 billion yuan, down 8.4% [3]. - The threshold for the top 10 companies in terms of total sales increased to 43.26 billion yuan, an 8.1% rise year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.1% decrease in the threshold for the top 20 companies, which fell to 15.15 billion yuan [4]. - Among the top 100 companies, 45% reported year-on-year growth, with 20 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [9]. Group 2: Company Classification and Performance - In the top 100 companies, there are 47 private enterprises, a decrease of one compared to the entire year of 2024. Only one private company is in the top 10, indicating a trend where capital favors state-owned and large enterprises amid ongoing liquidity crises for many private firms [6]. - The performance of state-owned enterprises is notably stronger, with 70% of central enterprises and 53% of state-owned enterprises reporting growth, compared to only 38% of mixed-ownership companies and 32% of private companies [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is in a phase of bottoming out, with local policies being optimized and some restrictions being eased in key cities, signaling a potential stabilization in the real estate market [13]. - Despite the positive signals, challenges remain as buyer confidence is still recovering, and companies face increasing inventory pressures, necessitating proactive measures in marketing and product innovation to capture market opportunities [13].