【博时市场点评6月20日】两市继续调整，成交缩至万亿 每日观点 今日沪深两市继续震荡调整，成交缩量至1.09万亿。今日央行公布6月LPR报价，两个期限利率均保持 不变，符合市场预期。5月降息效果当前正向贷款利率传导，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR报价短期 或将继续保持稳定。5月经济数据已发布，需求不足仍是核心问题，下半年在外部仍有很大不确定性， 大力提振内需、稳定资产价格预期，均需要适度宽松的货币环境。通过降低资金成本，激发融资需求， 是下半年拉动投资和消费、对冲外部冲击的一个重要发力点。国内权益市场短期或将维持震荡，主题轮 动较快，配置上可关注科技+红利的哑铃配置。 消息面 市场复盘 6月20日，A股三大指数下跌。截至收盘，上证指数报3359.90点，下跌0.07%；深证成指报10005.03点， 下跌0.47%；创业板指报2009.89点，下跌0.83%；科创100报1016.84点，下跌0.52%。申万一级行业中， 交通运输、食品饮料、银行涨幅靠前，分别上涨0.88%、0.73%、0.69%；传媒、计算机、石油石化跌幅 靠前，分别下跌1.91%、1.79%、1.71%。1500只个股上涨，3488只个股 ...

据了解，今年以来，按照党中央、国务院部署，国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等相关部门共同落 实加力扩围实施"两新"政策，延续2024年好的经验做法，直接向地方安排3000亿元国债资金加力 扩围实施消费品以旧换新，在今年年度内全年实施。今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中 央资金，支持地方做好一、二季度消费品以旧换新工作。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季 度分批有序下达。 据新华社，记者从有关部门获悉，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符合预 期，第三、四季度中央资金将陆续下达。 ...

来源：央视新闻 责编：王璐璐 校对：杨立林 百万用户都在看 突发！集体大跳水，发生了什么？ 刚刚，全线跳水！ 刚刚！美国，透露最新作战计划！ 紧急闭店！泡泡玛特，突发！ 特朗普下令：扩大！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 据有关部门消息，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符合预期，第三、四季度中央资 金将陆续下达。 据了解，今年以来，按照党中央、国务院部署，国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等相关部门共同落实加力扩 围实施"两新"政策，延续2024年好的经验做法，直接向地方安排3000亿元国债资金加力扩围实施消费品以旧 换新，在今年年度内全年实施。今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持地方做好一、二 季度消费品以旧换新工作。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。 "目前全国消费品以旧换新补贴资金使用大致占到全年规模50%左右，整体进度符合预期。"国家发展改革委有 关负责人介绍，"国补"资金包括三个部分：一是中央下达的超长期特别国债资金，规模比去年翻了一番；二是 按照有关规定，地方在中央下达资金基础上按比例配 ...

Group 1 - The policy for replacing old consumer goods with new ones remains unchanged, and the subsidy fund usage is on track, with central funds to be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [1] - The loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) for June show that the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month, while the 1-year LPR also remains at 3% [1] - In May, the total electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [1] Group 2 - The wholesale reference price for liquor indicates that on June 20, the price of the 2025 Flying Moutai in original boxes decreased by 30 yuan to 1950 yuan per bottle, while the price for loose bottles also dropped by 30 yuan to 1900 yuan per bottle [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.56%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.15%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.71% [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts for four consecutive meetings, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with some supporting two cuts this year while others oppose them [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may restart rate cuts in September, influenced by the impact of tariffs on macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2: Foreign Investment in China - The profits of foreign-invested industrial enterprises in China are projected to increase from 1.6 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, with profit margins leading the national average [3] - High-tech sectors are expected to account for 43.7% of foreign investment in manufacturing by 2024, with foreign enterprises nearing 50% of high-tech product exports [3] - China's policies to stabilize foreign investment are aimed at enhancing confidence and attracting quality resources, which will invigorate domestic economic growth [4] Group 3: National Subsidy Policies - A total of 138 billion yuan in central funding will be distributed in batches in the third and fourth quarters to support consumption upgrades, despite some regions temporarily halting subsidy programs [5] - The "old for new" consumption policy has expanded to include more product categories, with the special national bond funding increasing from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan this year [5] - The suspension of subsidies may lead to a decline in consumer spending, as seen during the "618" shopping festival [6] Group 4: Market Trends and Company Developments - The secondary market for Labubu collectibles has seen a significant price drop, with average transaction prices halving from 2279.7 yuan to 1181.3 yuan due to pre-sale strategies [7] - Texas Instruments announced a historic investment plan of over 60 billion USD to build seven chip factories, focusing on analog and embedded processing chips [9][10] - Audi has reversed its plan to stop developing and selling internal combustion engine vehicles, acknowledging market differences in the transition to electric vehicles [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in consumer spending in May 2025, driven by various factors including holiday promotions and government subsidies for replacing old consumer goods [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Data and Consumer Spending - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, which is the highest monthly level in 2024 [1]. - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" holidays, early promotions for the "6·18" shopping festival, and the expansion of the old-for-new consumer goods policy [1]. - The old-for-new policy has been expanded to include digital products like smartphones, with the subsidy amount doubled to 300 billion yuan, simplifying the process for consumers to receive subsidies [1]. Group 2: Impact of Old-for-New Policy - As of May 31, 2025, the old-for-new policy has generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed to consumers [2]. - The policy has led to significant sales increases in various categories, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication devices, and furniture growing by 53%, 33%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Adjustments - Some regions, such as Guangxi and Xinjiang, have had to pause their old-for-new subsidy programs due to rapid depletion of allocated funds [3][4]. - The central government has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan for the old-for-new policy, with 162 billion yuan already distributed, leaving 138 billion yuan to be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [4]. - Experts suggest that while the policy has been effective, there are signs of diminishing returns as consumers may have front-loaded their purchases, indicating a need for potential adjustments to the subsidy scope [5].

Group 1 - The total scale of central government subsidies for this year is 300 billion yuan, funded through the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds [1][7] - As of May 31, 2025, the five major categories of consumer goods for the old-for-new policy have driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [4] - The old-for-new policy has significantly boosted sales in various sectors, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The increase in consumer spending in May was attributed to factors such as the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat Festival" holidays, early promotions for the "6.18" shopping festival, and the expansion of the old-for-new policy to include digital products [2][3] - Some regions, such as Guangxi and Xinjiang, have had to suspend local old-for-new subsidy policies due to rapid depletion of allocated funds [7] - Experts suggest that while the old-for-new policy has been effective, its marginal utility may be decreasing as durable goods like home appliances and cars are affected, indicating a need for potential expansion of the subsidy scope [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Commerce Department announced a temporary suspension of the "old for new" subsidy program for consumer goods starting June 20, 2025, affecting various categories including automobiles and home appliances, despite the overall success of the program since its implementation in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The suspension will affect the subsidy activities for automobile replacement, home appliance upgrades, 3C digital products, electric bicycles, and home renovation subsidies [1]. - The "old for new" subsidy program will continue throughout the year, with the specific resumption date to be announced later [2]. Group 2: Program Impact - Since the implementation of the "old for new" policy, Guangxi has conducted over 6,000 related events, with more than 5 million consumers participating and receiving nearly 65 billion yuan in subsidies [2][3]. - The program has led to significant sales increases, with home appliance sales reaching 3.226 million units and 100,000 units for 3C digital products, alongside 250,000 vehicles sold under the "old for new" scheme, of which 76.4% were new energy vehicles [3]. Group 3: National Context - The national "old for new" policy, which began in 2024, covers various consumer goods and has expanded to include consumer electronics in 2025, offering subsidies of 15% of the product price for eligible items [3]. - As of May 31, 2025, the program has generated a total sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed to consumers [4].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market in China is showing stable growth, with significant increases in retail sales and specific categories driven by policies and consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Overall Retail Performance - From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] - In May, the total retail sales amounted to 4.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the fastest monthly growth rate in 2024 [1] Group 2: Category-Specific Growth - Retail sales of household appliances and mobile phones have surged, with retail sales of major categories such as home appliances, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars in May saw a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - Sales of upgraded products are also on the rise, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% respectively [1]

Core Insights - In May, China's retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Retail sales of goods in above-designated size enterprises grew by 8.2%, with an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown a significant impact, with retail sales of home appliances, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars in May saw a year-on-year increase of 13.3% according to data from the Automobile Circulation Association [1] Group 2: Upgraded Product Sales - Sales of upgraded consumer goods have experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively [1]