Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent news regarding the suspension or adjustment of the "national subsidy" for the trade-in of old products, highlighting the government's plans to support this initiative with significant funding [1]. Group 1: National Subsidy Plan - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan (approximately 43.5 billion USD) in special long-term bonds to support the trade-in of consumer goods [1]. - A total of 162 billion yuan (approximately 23.2 billion USD) has already been distributed to local governments, with the remaining funds to be released in an orderly manner [1]. - The trade-in policy for consumer goods will be implemented throughout 2025, with guidance provided to local authorities to ensure the effective use of the subsidy funds [1].

Core Viewpoint - In May 2023, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by various factors including holiday consumption, promotional events, and the "old-for-new" policy [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth Drivers - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, with retail sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, and furniture increasing by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [3] - The "6·18" online shopping festival, which started on May 13, has accelerated online retail sales, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail from January to May, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [3] - Holiday consumption showed positive trends, with domestic tourism during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and restaurant income in May rising by 5.9% [4] Group 2: Emerging Consumption Trends - There is a continuous release of new consumption momentum, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% year-on-year respectively [4] - The expansion of the visa-free entry policy has enhanced consumer activity, with inbound tourists under the visa exemption policy increasing by over 70% during the "May Day" holiday, leading to a significant rise in tourism orders and payment transactions [4]

Core Viewpoint - In May, retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, cultural and office supplies, and furniture showed significant year-on-year growth, contributing to an overall increase in social consumer goods retail sales [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 25.6% to 53% year-on-year [1] - The combined growth of these categories contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment in equipment and tools saw a growth of 17.3% in the first five months [1] - This investment trend contributed 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1]

国家统计局16日发布数据显示，5月份，消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上单位家用电器和音 像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、 25.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 53% due to the effectiveness of the consumption upgrade policy [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Growth - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 53.0% year-on-year [1] - Other categories also saw substantial growth, with communication equipment rising by 33.0%, cultural and office supplies by 30.5%, and furniture by 25.6% [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China is shifting its price control strategy from managing high prices to managing low prices, focusing on stabilizing the "old-for-new" consumption policy in the short term and promoting service consumption in the long term [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown negative growth for four consecutive months, primarily due to food and energy prices, while the core CPI has rebounded significantly since October last year, indicating a more stable economic supply-demand relationship [1][2] - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining the stability of the "old-for-new" policy to boost core CPI, alongside direct subsidies to stimulate demand and regulate industry pricing [4][5] Price Trends - Home appliance prices have improved from a year-on-year decline of -3.3% in October 2024 to -0.2% in May 2025, while transportation tools and communication tools have also shown recovery in price growth [2] - Residential prices have remained stable with minimal fluctuations, while other service prices continue to be a drag on the overall CPI [4] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that boosting core CPI will require further recovery in the real estate market and increased direct subsidies to demand, rather than solely focusing on housing prices [4][5] - The "old-for-new" policy is seen as a critical lever for maintaining price stability, with suggestions to expand subsidy coverage to service sectors like home services and education to stimulate consumption [5][6] - Long-term strategies should include "new supply-side reforms" to enhance the proportion of final consumption expenditure in GDP, alongside measures to improve social security standards and reduce household burdens [6][7]

应当说，在总量上，3000亿元超长期特别国债的资金支持为全年消费品以旧换新政策的实施提供了重要助 力，分别于1月、4月下达的两批合计1620亿元资金也体现了"既定政策早出台早见效"的部署安排。市场机构 根据销售数据测算出，截至5月末，消费品以旧换新"国补"资金使用进度为1439亿—1632亿元，接近已下达资 金规模；进入6月，叠加端午节促销、"6·18"等购物节点，预计当月资金消耗将攀升至500亿元。 不过，从区域分布看，各地资金使用进度和政策效果不能一概而论。部分地区暂停"国补"领取主要是因为前 期所获资金额度已消耗接近上限，新一轮补贴发放安排需等待中央资金下拨；另有部分地区采取每日"限量发 放"模式控制资金消耗进度。与此同时，还有地区维持现有"普惠式补贴"模式，部分省市还在辖内扩大补贴覆 盖范围，以此进一步提高政策吸引力、带动消费。 根据前期中央部委印发的政策文件，今年消费品以旧换新的资金分配总体上是向2024年工作成效较好的地区 适度倾斜。行至年中，站在新一轮中央资金下拨的时点上，优化资金额度分配一定程度上也将影响接下来政 策的实施效用。更进一步来看，优化资金分配机制，尤其是根据政策实施效果更为动态地调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the old-for-new subsidy for consumer goods during the "6.18" shopping festival has raised widespread attention, highlighting the importance of this policy in boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The old-for-new policy has shown significant effects, with sales in five major categories reaching 1.1 trillion yuan in the first five months, nearing the total sales of 1.3 trillion yuan for the entire previous year [1]. - The implementation of 300 billion yuan in long-term special treasury bonds has provided crucial support for the old-for-new policy, with 162 billion yuan allocated in two batches in January and April [1]. Group 2: Regional Variations - There are notable differences in the usage progress and effectiveness of the subsidy across regions, with some areas suspending the "national subsidy" due to nearing the funding cap, while others adopt a daily "limited issuance" model [2]. - Some regions maintain a "universal subsidy" model and expand coverage to enhance policy attractiveness and stimulate consumption [2]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The distribution of funds is expected to favor regions that perform well in 2024, and optimizing fund allocation based on policy effectiveness will be crucial for improving subsidy implementation [2]. - Upcoming promotional events in the second half of the year will require precise management of fund usage to maximize the impact of fiscal resources on consumer spending [2].

Core Insights - In May, China's retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.932 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 8.811 million units, up 9.1% [1] - Passenger car production and wholesale also hit historical highs in May, with production at 2.270 million units (up 12.6%) and wholesale at 2.310 million units (up 12.8%) [1] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales, with 4.12 million applications for subsidies by the end of May, and May's applications estimated at 1.23 million, a 13% increase from April [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 52.9% in May, with retail sales of NEVs at 1.021 million units, a 28.2% year-on-year increase [2] - Exports of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 448,000 units in May, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [2] Industry Trends - The automotive market is expected to maintain growth in June, although the growth rate may slow due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing fuel vehicle consumption and promoting vehicle scrappage are expected to support the overall positive trend in the automotive industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "618" shopping festival is driving a new wave of consumer enthusiasm, supported by the "old-for-new" policy and promotions from major e-commerce platforms, significantly boosting sales in consumer goods [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "old-for-new" policy is a crucial measure for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-quality economic and social development [1] - As of May 31, 2023, the five major categories of consumer goods under the "old-for-new" policy have generated a sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - Dynamic adjustment of the funding pool is suggested, introducing a "rolling allocation" measure to enhance the precision and efficiency of subsidy distribution [2] - Transitioning from "price subsidies" to "technology subsidies" is recommended to guide industrial upgrades, focusing on supporting green appliances and smart manufacturing products [3] - Establishing a multi-party collaborative model is essential, enhancing the role of enterprises in driving the initiative through data sharing and innovative subsidy mechanisms [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Continuous experience accumulation and collaborative efforts are expected to sustain the "old-for-new" policy, injecting strong momentum into high-quality economic development [5]