Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday, and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract is also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Slightly stronger oscillating; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][5] - Core logic: Macro factors have improved, boosting the confidence to buy in the rubber market. However, the new rubber supply is gradually increasing as the rubber - tapping season arrives. The downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase. Despite a 0.74% decline in the 2509 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Rising; Reference view: Stronger operation [1][7] - Core logic: Although macro factors are turning optimistic, the US debt crisis in June may cause a negative impact. OPEC+ is increasing production, and oil demand is expected to be weak. But the news of Israel's possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has driven up oil prices. Despite a 0.86% decline in the 2507 contract on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]

特朗普（资料图） 据环球网报道，美国总统特朗普第二任期执政满百日，从美股到美元再到美债，美国金融市场遭遇多 次"过山车"式的振荡。30年期美债收益率一度录得数十年来最大单周涨幅，"避风港"地位受到质疑。美 国"政府效率部"负责人马斯克曾直言。他所说的，是美国"债务时钟"网站显示的统计数据。目前，美国 国债总额已超过36.8万亿美元。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院近期发布一份报告，警告美债的"庞氏骗 局"正在进入濒临破产的前夜。 稀土（资料图） 值得注意的是，近日，中国国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室部署开展多部门专项行动，重点打击战略 矿产走私出口。会议指出，加强战略矿产资源出口管制事关国家安全和发展利益。国家对镓、锗、锑、 钨、中重稀土等战略矿产实施出口管制以来，部分境外实体与境内不法人员相互勾结，不断翻新走私出 口手法，试图逃避打击。为避免战略矿产非法外流、遏制走私势头、切实维护国家安全，同时促进合规 贸易、保障产供链稳定，打击战略矿产走私出口成为当前迫切且重要的工作任务。 中方一系列动作，已经让美国看不到迎来中国稀土的希望，对此，不甘心的特朗普，似乎有意来中国和 我们好好面谈一次。近日，特朗普再次表达了想访问 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. Treasury and the implications of the U.S. debt crisis**. It also touches on the **impact of the Trump tax cuts** and the **potential of domestic computing power companies** in the context of globalization and economic uncertainty. Core Insights and Arguments - The **U.S. Treasury has not issued new debt**, leading to a **$2 trillion fiscal gap** that relies on the TGA account and unconventional measures. The Treasury Secretary warns that funds will be exhausted by August, necessitating a resolution before mid-July to avoid a repeat of the 2019 debt ceiling crisis [1][3] - The **Trump tax cuts** are compared to Reagan's supply-side reforms, with the assertion that their stimulative effect is weaker than direct fiscal spending. If the 2025 tax cuts lack fiscal support, it could lead to an economic downturn and potentially trigger a global financial crisis [1][4] - Three paths to alleviate the U.S. fiscal crisis are identified: **over-issuing U.S. debt, increasing tariffs, and debt default**. Each of these paths would exacerbate the debt crisis by increasing supply, reducing dollar trade volume, and lowering credit ratings, respectively [1][5] - In the current environment of increasing uncertainty, there is a recommendation to embrace **anti-fragile safe assets**, including **immediate net assets** (like gold and similar assets) and **future cash flows** from domestic computing power companies that have a certainty premium [1][6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **rise of de-globalization** is increasing environmental uncertainty, leading capital to seek certainty. Anti-fragile safe assets, such as gold and domestic computing power companies, are seen as more attractive due to their principal certainty and future cash flow premiums [1][7] - The focus on **AI domestic patents** is emphasized, as de-globalization makes computing chips non-tradable, thereby securing market share for domestic computing power companies and providing future cash flow certainty [2][6]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, raising concerns about U.S. debt credibility [1][9] - Following the downgrade, U.S. Treasury bond futures experienced significant declines, with long-term futures dropping over 1.1% and ultra-long-term futures falling over 1.6% [1][3] - The yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, indicating rising borrowing costs [1][5] Group 2 - The downgrade is attributed to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and interest payments, with projections suggesting that by 2035, federal debt could reach 134% of GDP [9] - The market is reacting to the potential for rising deficits, with the federal deficit expected to climb to 9% of GDP [9] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries, exacerbated by ongoing fiscal challenges and political disputes over the debt ceiling [10][11] Group 3 - The market is currently facing structural demand declines for U.S. Treasuries, with expectations of interest rate cuts being hindered [10] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" initiated in April have contributed to a broader market sell-off, raising doubts among global investors regarding U.S. debt [10][11] - Analysts recommend maintaining a range trading strategy in the short term, with potential for yield declines if economic data continues to weaken [10]

美债市场再次大跌 穆迪将美国主权信用评级从AAA下调一级至AA1后，美债市场再次大跌。 截至记者发稿，长期美国国债期货的价格跌超1.1%，超长期美国国债期货的价格跌超1.6%。而20年期、30年期美国国债的收益率均在5%以上。 业内人士指出，4月初，美国发起所谓的"对等关税"导致美国股债汇三杀，全球投资者开始质疑美债信用。穆迪将美国主权信用评级下调后，将加剧市场对美债的担 忧。 5月19日，美国债券市场大跌，长期美国国债期货价格跌幅更为明显。 截至记者发稿，5年期美国国债期货下跌0.14%，10年期美国国债期货下跌0.37%，长期美国国债期货下跌1.16%，超长期美国国债期货下跌1.63%。 值得注意的是，在本轮美国国债期货价格下跌的过程中，超长期美国国债期货的最低价格已跌破今年4月9日的盘中最低价，创2023年11月以来新低。5年期美国国债 期货、10年期美国国债期货、长期美国国债期货的价格距离今年4月中旬的最低价也只有一步之遥。 | 代码 交割月份 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ▽ CBOT 2年期美国国债 | | | | | へ CBOT 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.16% to 14,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - factor has improved and boosted the confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is increasing as the natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad enter the new tapping season. Meanwhile, the downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate returns to normal. With limited improvement in the supply - demand structure, it is expected that the domestic rubber futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract closed slightly lower by 0.45% to 12,290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factor has turned optimistic, the approaching US debt crisis in June may cause a new round of negative macro - impacts. Also, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. With the weakening of cost factors, it is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [7].

我写《美债又崩了》，有粉丝质疑，美联储不是美国的吗？为什么要拆自己的台？ 问这种问题的人，真的是天真的可爱。 你不妨往自己身边看看，好多人一家子两夫妻，处得跟仇人一样，为了财产或者别的，勉强凑一块，心 底里各种算计，恨不得把对方弄死的多了去了。你别问，一问户口本上一家人，真要是谁死了，剩下的 那个，就占大便宜了。 所以懂王跟美联储之间彼此不对付有那么难理解吗？ 这世界上什么都可以让，唯有利益是不能让的。 懂王独享欲非常强，当了两届总统，你啥时候见他有过什么亲密的政治盟友？谁跟他关系好，都只能是 用得上的那一阵子，但凡用不上了，即便像马老板这样，出钱出力把他送上总统宝座，那也是随时能欢 送出白宫的。 从懂王的第一任期开始，建制派们就已经想好了要联手限制总统的权力。 当然了，这也不是建制派们跟懂王有什么深仇大恨，纯粹是美国的政治传统。 我们以前经常听公知们说，要把权力关进笼子里。 后来我们慢慢发现，权力世袭真的很难，但财富世袭却是容易的。把权力关进笼子里限制起来，然后让 财富自由，这不就相当于让财富控制了权力，然后世袭罔替仙福永享了吗？ 以前总有人说，谁当美国总统都是一样的，就是让个动物当总统，美国照样运转。 这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to a stronger US dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - As of the latest report, spot gold has dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly decline of nearly 4%, marking the worst week since November of the previous year [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a reduction of approximately 58 basis points in interest rates by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, down from a peak expectation of 120 basis points during the height of panic in April [2][3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to ongoing global monetary easing, with central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, having already cut rates multiple times [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape, including developments in the US-Iran agreement and Russia-Ukraine talks, is expected to influence gold prices significantly in the coming week [3][6] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may experience a second bottom test, with key support levels identified around $3152 and $3140, while resistance is noted at $3210-3212 [4][6] Group 3 - The article outlines specific trading strategies for gold, recommending short positions around $3230-3235 and long positions on pullbacks to $3165-3170, with defined stop-loss levels [7][8] - It highlights the importance of managing positions effectively, especially for traders who may find themselves in losing positions, suggesting that timely analysis and adjustments are crucial for recovery [8]

许多人以为中美贸易战已经结束，但实际上这只是一个误解。5月12日，中美双方互相降低关税，虽然似 乎代表着贸易战谈判的突破，但这只是本轮贸易战的第一步，未来特朗普很可能会继续反复施压。 回顾2018年的贸易战，特朗普便已反复了三次，直到那时贸易战才接近尾声。2019年1月，在中美签署了 第一阶段贸易协议时，市场一度乐观，认为贸易战即将结束。然而，仅仅四个月后，特朗普便再次加征了 关税。 为何特朗普会反复加码？他的背后逻辑是如何支撑的？为什么这次谈判仅一个月就迎来破冰，而上次则花 费了近十个月？以下通过数据解读其根本原因。 普的减税政策下，富人群体得到了相当的税收优惠，导致财政收入每年减少约2000亿美元。这使得赤字与 美债利息之间形成了恶性循环，财政赤字的增加直接推动了美债发行量的增加，进而带动美债利息上升。 如今，美国的美债总额已经从20万亿美元增加至36万亿美元，利息也从3000亿美元飙升至近9000亿美元， 远超特朗普1.0时期的水平。 与此相比，2020年疫情期间，美联储通过降息来应对经济衰退，尽管美债总额急剧增加，但由于低利率， 利息却几乎保持不变。特朗普面临的财政困境愈发严重，而美联储的加息政策让债 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 今天早上一个多小时的重庆中行《中美关税谈判与国际宏观局势分析》的主题演讲结束，近一百六十位同时在线开会的场面还是非常棒啊，而且中行的做 事效率很高，接下来私人银行的活动也准备开始安排。 我已经安排技术进行视频切片处理，预计分成三段，届时你们可以留意我公众号和视频号的更新。 为会副学应 高净值客户的投资交易与资产配置 讲座时间 5月16日 全天六小时 个人简介 ● 匠鑫学院院长|北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究员| 国家高级黄金投资分析师|注册金融理财师 许亚鑫老师是资深金融分析师,曾任多家媒体专栏 专家和外汇贵金属评论员,拥有丰富的金融市场分 析经验。他以"风险第一,量力而行"的投资理念 指导培训,深受国内商业银行和知名学府的推崇。 O - | INDIA- | SOUTH ASIA | STATS | | 巴基斯坦 | 印度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PAKISTAN | PAKISTAN | INDIA | 战机损失 | 0 | 6 | | CONFLIC | | | | | | | TATIS | 0 | ...