Core Points - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its current interest rate at around 0.5% and plans to sell its financial assets in the market to further reduce its monetary easing measures and normalize its monetary policy [1][2] - The BOJ plans to sell approximately 330 billion yen worth of ETFs and 5 billion yen worth of REITs annually, with the timing of these sales yet to be determined [1] - The market has been closely monitoring how the BOJ will manage its substantial holdings of financial assets, which include ETFs valued at approximately 37 trillion yen and REITs valued at around 6.5 trillion yen [2] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The BOJ is maintaining its policy interest rate at around 0.5% and is preparing to sell its holdings of ETFs and REITs to reduce monetary easing [1] - The sales of financial assets are part of the BOJ's strategy to normalize its monetary policy after extensive easing during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Financial Assets - The current market value of the 330 billion yen worth of ETFs is approximately 620 billion yen, while the total market value of the BOJ's ETF holdings is around 70 trillion yen [2] - The BOJ's REIT holdings have a book value of 650 billion yen and a market value of about 700 billion yen [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to gradually sell its holdings of domestic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has led to significant market volatility, with the Nikkei index dropping 1.6% and impacting other Asian markets [3][4][6]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, which was in line with market expectations [3]. - The announcement of selling domestic ETFs indicates a shift from the ultra-loose monetary policy era initiated during Abe's administration, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy [6]. - Analysts predict a 58% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by the end of the year, with many expecting a rate hike before January [6][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, the Japanese yen strengthened significantly, contributing to declines in equity markets across Asia [4][6]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate fell sharply, which was a major factor in the market turmoil [4]. - The Nikkei index's drop was mirrored by declines in other indices, including a 0.4% decrease in India's Nifty 50 and widespread losses in Southeast Asian markets [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite some signs of weakness, the Japanese economy is on a path of moderate recovery, with stable trends in exports and production, and moderate growth in capital expenditure [6]. - There are concerns that trade policies may slow Japan's economic growth, but a rebound is expected thereafter [6]. - Historical data indicates that the reversal of carry trades involving the yen has occurred in the past, which could lead to further market pressures if similar conditions arise [8].

周五（9月19日）亚洲时段，日元强势反弹，美元兑日元短线下跌约40点，刷新日内低点至147.1800， 截止发稿前美元/日元报147.4400，跌幅0.37%，因两位日本央行官员提议加息25个基点。 两人均认为，应该加息25个基点至0.75%，因为随着价格上涨风险更加偏向于上行，央行应将政策利率 略微向中性利率靠近。 与此同时，日本央行还宣布开始出售其持有的ETF和REITs资产。受此鹰派意外刺激，日元汇率短线走 强超50点，日股涨幅回落，日本10年期国债延续跌势，收益率走高。 美元兑日元汇率昨日亚市开盘后延续上行，盘中收复第一阻力后续创日内新高，日线报收中阳线，收盘 位置触及前阻力区，突破后方可打开上升空间，从4H来看，布林中轨拐头向上，MACD零轴附近运 行，日内下方首要支撑147.60，第二支撑147.10，上方阻力148.50,149.00，保持在第一支撑上方短线有 望测试第一阻力。 日本央行在周五结束的为期两天的政策会议后，连续第五次会议将基准利率维持在约0.5%不变，此前 在1月份将利率上调至当前水平，作为在十年非常规宽松政策后努力恢复正常货币政策的举措。 日本央行此次决议公布时间较往常大幅延迟， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% amid ongoing global economic uncertainties and domestic political instability, while also announcing plans to begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was reached with a 7-2 vote, marking the first time since the current governor took office that there were dissenting votes on this issue [1]. - The dissenting members argued for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% due to rising inflation risks [1][4]. Group 2: ETF and J-REIT Sales - The BOJ plans to sell its ETF and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs) holdings at a pace of approximately 620 billion yen (around 4.2 billion USD) per year [4]. - This marks the first time the BOJ has mentioned plans to sell its ETF holdings, which are valued at approximately 37 trillion yen (about 251 billion USD) on a book value basis [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the ETF sales, the Japanese stock market showed signs of weakness, with the Nikkei 225 index declining by as much as 1.8% [4]. - The yen strengthened against the dollar after the announcement, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose slightly [4]. Group 4: Internal Dynamics and Future Outlook - The emergence of hawkish sentiments within the BOJ is indicated by the dissenting votes, suggesting a potential shift towards a more aggressive monetary policy stance [9]. - Analysts predict that the BOJ may begin to gradually sell off its ETF assets starting in the fiscal year 2026 to minimize potential losses and impacts on the Japanese stock market [8]. Group 5: Economic Context and Future Rate Hikes - Despite political uncertainties, there are indications that the BOJ may consider raising interest rates again by the end of the year if economic conditions remain favorable [10][11]. - A significant portion of market observers expect a potential rate hike in October, with many anticipating that the next increase could occur in January 2026 [11].

南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 美国东部时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之 间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 受美联储降息消息影响，亚太股市呈现分化走势，日韩股市一路上扬，并创出新高，而东南亚股市则以下跌为主。 渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰向21世纪经济报道记者表示，美联储此次降息后，日韩股市上涨，可能源于利差缩小，资本有望回 流，从而推高这两国股市。另外，美联储在最新《经济预测摘要》中，相对于6月调高了美国经济预测，预计今年GDP将增长1.6%，明年GDP 将增长1.8%，预示着美国将在经济软着陆的情境下降低利率，从而利好经济，支撑需求，这对于以美国为重要出口市场的日韩经济体意义重 大。 王昕杰进一步表示，美联储降息路径明确，为包括日韩等在内的亚太主要经济体央行提供了更大的货币政策空间，从而维持较低利率水平支持 经济，同时利好股市。美联储鹰派降息刺激亚太股市分化 亚太股市盘初，美股三大指数期货集体上涨。另一边，亚太股中，日、韩股市一路上涨。 日经225指数开盘即 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that the appointment of a pro-reflation figure as Japan's next Prime Minister will not hinder the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1] Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Expectations - Analysts, including Osamu Takashima, predict that the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan may exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate over time [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to peak around 150 this summer before retreating to approximately 140 in the fourth quarter [1] - In a risk-on environment, the downward pressure on the yen is increasing, as the Fed's potential rate cuts could boost the US stock market [1] Group 2: Key Levels for USD/JPY - The current outlook suggests limited downside for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with a potential bottom around 145 [1] - The key resistance level for the USD/JPY exchange rate remains at 148 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the political landscape in Japan, particularly focusing on the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the upcoming elections for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][2][6]. Core Points and Arguments - **Resignation of Shigeru Ishiba**: Ishiba resigned following the LDP's poor performance in the July 2025 Senate elections, where the ruling coalition failed to secure a majority, marking the lowest seat count in 10-15 years [2]. - **LDP Presidential Election Process**: The election will follow a complete process involving 590 votes, split between National Diet members and LDP members. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second round will occur with increased weight on National Diet votes [3][4]. - **Candidates and Policies**: Key candidates include Sanae Takaichi, who supports monetary easing and fiscal expansion, and Shinjiro Koizumi, who advocates for structural reforms and labor market flexibility [1][9][10]. - **Market Reactions**: Ishiba's resignation is expected to lead to a more favorable market environment, with potential for increased stock market activity and a weaker yen, as candidates are likely to adopt more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies compared to Ishiba [14][15]. - **Economic Policy Implications**: The new prime minister may implement slight fiscal relaxations, such as tax cuts, but significant increases in fiscal stimulus could risk downgrading Japan's credit rating due to high debt levels [16][18]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term, as the new prime minister will be in office for less than a month before any potential rate changes, and the central bank is waiting for wage data to assess inflation impacts [17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Japanese companies traditionally avoid layoffs during economic downturns, opting instead to reduce bonuses and extend working hours, which limits flexibility in the labor market [11][12]. - **Comparison with U.S. Practices**: Unlike U.S. firms that frequently adjust workforce levels based on economic conditions, Japanese firms maintain a more stable workforce, which can hinder their ability to adapt to economic fluctuations [11]. - **Potential for Increased Inequality**: Koizumi's proposed reforms to relax dismissal regulations could enhance labor market fluidity but may also exacerbate income inequality [13]. - **GDP Growth Indicators**: Recent data indicates Japan's nominal GDP growth at 4.9% for Q2 2025, suggesting improvements in consumer spending and corporate earnings, which could positively influence the overall economic outlook [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a potential interest rate hike if economic growth and prices align with the central bank's outlook, leading to a significant sell-off in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan would consider raising interest rates if the economic and price conditions improve as projected [2][3]. - The central bank maintained its policy rate in July but raised its forecast for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The Deputy Governor, Masayoshi Amamiya, indicated that continuing to raise interest rates is an appropriate policy choice given the improving economic and price conditions [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Ueda's comments, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.88%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropped by 1.1% [3]. - The Japanese government bond market experienced a severe sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.29% [1][4]. - The U.S. and U.K. also saw their long-term bond yields rise, with the U.S. 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July 18, and the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since May 1998 [1][6]. Group 3: Political Context and Investor Sentiment - The political instability surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's government, including resignations from key party officials, has raised concerns about increased government spending and potential fiscal discipline loosening [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market is weighing the possibility of either Kishida proposing generous spending plans or a new leader implementing expansionary fiscal policies, both of which could lead to a more accommodative fiscal environment [5]. - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is viewed as a critical test of investor confidence amid these developments [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The freight futures prices of the container shipping index (European Line) declined collectively on Wednesday. The main contract EC2510 closed down 3.04%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The spot indicators continued to decline. The "price war" has put continuous pressure on the fundamentals. With uncertainties in the trade war, weak demand expectations for the container shipping index (European Line), and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1323.000, down 41.5; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1701.2, down 53.9 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: +14.60 up; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: -211.00, down 1.60 - EC contract basis: +17.70 up, 450.60 - EC main contract open interest: 51946, down 2211 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1773.60, down 216.60; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1013.90, down 27.48 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1445.06, up 29.70; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1156.32, down 18.55; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1685.80, down 71.94 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1986.00, up 38.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1764.00, up 49.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 14170.00, up 274.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 26105.00, down 359.00 [1] Industry News - China's Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice clarifying 4 tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund. These measures have been in effect since April 1, 2024, and eligible paid taxes can be refunded, which directly boosts the investment return of the social security fund [1] - US President Trump said he would appeal the global tariff case ruling to the US Supreme Court. He believes that uncertainty causes the stock market to fall. Winning or losing the tariff case will have a significant impact on the stock market, and canceling tariffs may make the US a third - world country [1] - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hino Ryozo said that based on the improvement of the economy and prices, it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates. Despite three rate hikes, Japan's real interest rate remains at a significantly low level due to persistent inflation, and there is still room for monetary policy normalization [1] Key Data to Focus On - September 4, 17:00, Eurozone retail sales month - on - month rate for July - September 4, 20:15, US ADP employment change (in ten thousand people) for August - September 4, 20:30, US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand people) for the week ended August 30 - September 4, 20:30, US trade balance (in billion US dollars) for July [1]

Market Insights - President Trump plans to appeal the global tariff ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, citing an economic emergency in the U.S. He warns that a potential loss could lead to unprecedented market shocks [1] - Nearly 600 economists signed an open letter warning that the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could threaten the independence of the Fed and erode trust in the U.S. financial system [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August rose slightly to 48.7 but remains below the market expectation of 49, marking the sixth consecutive month below the neutral line [3] Economic Indicators - Japan's CPI for August increased by 1.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, the lowest since November of the previous year [4] - Eurozone's CPI for August rose by 2.1% year-on-year, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%. Service prices saw a notable slowdown, increasing by 3.1% [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.55% to 45,295.81 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.69% and 0.82%, respectively [5] - Gold futures on COMEX rose by 1.51% to $3,599.5 per ounce, reaching a historical high [5] - U.S. oil futures increased by 1.56% to $65.62 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.39% to $69.10 per barrel [6] Bond Market - The yield on 30-year German bonds reached its highest level since 2011, while French 30-year bond yields hit a new high since 2009 [7] - U.S. Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.50 basis points to 4.260% [7] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.66% to 98.32, with the Euro and British Pound both declining against the dollar [8]