美联储保尔森：对通胀前景不太担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Kansas City Fed President Esther George indicated that interest rates should remain at a level that continues to apply pressure on the economy to further cool inflation, suggesting a preference for maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy [1][5] - George noted that while there are signs of cooling in the labor market, this trend may persist for some time to avoid worsening inflation prospects, emphasizing that the slowdown in the job market is driven by structural factors [1][5] - Fed Governor Michael Barr expressed concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in light of the U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation and accusations against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, stating these actions challenge the Fed's independence [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The market is currently focused on key economic data releases, including Germany's December CPI year-on-year final value, Germany's 2025 annual GDP year-on-year, and the U.S. December industrial production month-on-month [1][5] - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, trading around 4605, influenced by profit-taking and strong U.S. economic data, along with optimistic comments from Fed officials [2][7] - The USD/JPY pair saw a slight increase, trading around 155.30, supported by expectations of the Fed's inaction in January and positive economic data, although concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan limited upward movement [3][8] - The USD/CAD pair also rose slightly, trading around 1.3890, supported by a strong U.S. dollar and weak Canadian economic data, with attention on the 1.4000 resistance level [4][9]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 1029.10 CNY per gram, with a slight decline of 0.18% from the previous session, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The highest price reached was 1034.50 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 1026.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a range of volatility in the market [1] - The technical analysis suggests a high-level oscillation pattern for gold T+D, with key support at 990 CNY per gram and resistance at 1010 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has gained unexpected public support, with notable figures in the financial community praising his leadership amid ongoing investigations related to monetary policy [1] - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen supports the Fed's recent decisions to lower interest rates, indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate being slightly above neutral [2] - Paulsen suggests that inflation is expected to progress towards the 2% target by the end of the year, and she is inclined towards moderate rate cuts later in the year, contingent on inflation data and labor market conditions [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - The central bank mainly announced structural policies, giving positive expectations for future RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, but market confidence is insufficient, and interest rates have rebounded. The clear window for long - positions in the bond market may still need to wait. In a context of loose liquidity, it is recommended to adopt a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term. If supply disruptions and the spring rally of equities do not exceed expectations in the short term, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. Looking further, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored. If the economic and financial data are stabilized by structural monetary policies, the bond market may face a longer period of oscillation [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seven Key Points of the Central Bank Press Conference - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: These are to be implemented first, collaborating with fiscal policies to boost domestic demand and economic structural transformation, ensuring a good start. They have been optimized in price, quantity, and direction. For example, interest rates of various tools were cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the quota for certain loans was increased [7][9] - **Aggregate Monetary Policy**: Aggregate monetary policy easing still needs time. However, the central bank has conveyed positive expectations, and there is still significant room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts with reduced constraints [10] - **Funds**: "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy rate" is equivalent to "guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy rate". Short - term funds face little pressure, but future broad - credit and growth - stabilizing effects need to be observed [12] - **Bonds**: The central bank's reasonable range for the 10 - year Treasury yield is around 1.8%, with a difference of about 10BP between the upper and lower limits. The overall bond market interest rate is stable and reasonable [15] - **Treasury Bond Trading**: If the bond market experiences an excessive decline, the central bank may increase the scale and extend the term of Treasury bond trading to maintain stability [17] - **Inflation**: The central bank has a positive view on inflation, believing it has shown an upward trend. The possibility of aggregate easing based on price levels in the short term is low [18] - **Exchange Rate**: The exchange rate is likely to fluctuate and appreciate. In the first half of 2026, it may have a narrow - range oscillation, and it is expected to break through the oscillation range in the second half [19] 2. Outlook on Bonds after the Central Bank Press Conference - The bond market's clear long - position window may still need to wait. In a loose liquidity environment, a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term is more important. If short - term factors do not exceed expectations, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. In the long run, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored [2][21] - Currently, short - term credit carry is more cost - effective, with lower fluctuations. For long - term bonds, large - scale banks are optimistic, while non - bank institutions are cautious. The key lies in whether short - sellers in the trading market are cleared and whether the liability side returns to stability. For certificates of deposit, they also have certain investment value as they remain oscillating slightly above 1.6% [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices initially declined and then rebounded, with losses in domestic refined copper imports persisting. The US labor market remains resilient, and a Fed official said there's no reason to cut interest rates. China's central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons, Comex inventories increased by 4,653 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and BC copper increased by 2,098 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream procurement became more cautious, and the export window is gradually opening. Trump said he would not impose tariffs on key minerals like copper. The high - level instability of copper prices is evident, and there is a divergence between foreign capital's bullish sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Spot alumina prices fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina producers have high ore reserves, and costs are under pressure. With the end of environmental controls and increased production, along with imports, inventories are accumulating. The processing end of the photovoltaic industry may maintain resilience, and the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has eased slightly. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount is narrowing [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.04% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.24%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce its nickel ore production target in 2026, which may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap and stimulate nickel price increases. The first - level nickel production has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. Short - term, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US labor market data is strong, and China's central bank cut interest rates. Inventory changes vary in different markets. High copper prices make downstream procurement cautious, and the export window is opening. Trump's statement on tariffs and external risks affect copper prices, with a divergence between market sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures and spot prices of aluminum - related products are weak. Alumina costs are under pressure, inventories are accumulating, and the processing end may maintain resilience, with aluminum prices remaining high and the discount narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight, inventories increased. Indonesia's production cut plan may drive up prices, while increased production and hedging demand pose challenges [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventories decreased by 500 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 1,070 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 3,800 tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 2,107 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 470 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 14,010 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased by 16,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 624 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 1,700 tons, and social inventories increased by 2,126 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 6,230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.8%. LME inventories decreased by 25 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 793 tons, and social inventories decreased by 5,000 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 8.3%. LME inventories decreased by 5 tons, SHFE inventories decreased by 1,001 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [12]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [18]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [30]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [37]. Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both with significant achievements and media exposure [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a prominent narrative. China will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." The central bank has cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to float bidirectionally [2] - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. Overseas economic climate has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and its economic data in December is generally better. The US economic data is mixed, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Currently, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. There are opportunities for low-valued commodities to catch up in price. Pay attention to the short - term emotional risks of the new energy sector, the development of the Iranian situation, the "anti-involution" space of chemical products, weather conditions for agricultural products, and opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti-involution." The 2026 PBOC work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and cut the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools. The geopolitical situation between Iran and Venezuela has tightened, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2] - There is a differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. China's foreign trade is improving, with exports and imports in December exceeding expectations. The official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December are in the expansion range. The US economic data is mixed, with the ISM manufacturing index falling, non - farm payrolls missing expectations, but overall economic improvement according to the Fed's Beige Book. There are increasing expectations of US interest rate cuts [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints, and aluminum and nickel are preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term emotional risks in the new energy sector. The US will "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and the Iranian situation has temporarily cooled. There is "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and agricultural products are affected by weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - As of the end of December, M2, M1, and M0 have different year - on - year growth rates, and there is a net cash injection for the whole year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans and RMB loans has increased year - on - year [7] - The PBOC has cut the interest rates of re - loans and rediscounts by 0.25 percentage points since January 19, 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [7] - The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. Fed officials have different stances on interest rates. Trump has no current plan to fire Powell, but the situation is still uncertain. The Iranian situation has temporarily cooled, and international oil prices have fallen [7] - Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has decided to form a new political party with the Komeito Party [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming financial market data on January 16, 2026, includes European inflation, U.S. industrial and real estate data, and multiple Federal Reserve officials' statements, which together will help assess economic resilience, inflation trends, and monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - The final value of Germany's December CPI, released at 15:00, is a key indicator for the European market, as it serves as a significant signal for the European Central Bank's policy decisions. A consistent final value with a continued moderate or declining trend would confirm that inflation in the Eurozone is on a "controlled downward" path, allowing for a potential continuation of accommodative policies [3] Group 3 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey is expected to address inflation outlook, financial stability, and interest rate policy balance at the Bellagio meeting. Market attention will be on whether he leans towards a "cautious accommodative" or "wait-and-see" signal [4] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials will speak, including Governor Bowman and Vice Chair Jefferson, focusing on inflation progress, labor market resilience, and interest rate maintenance duration, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments and impact the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] Group 4 - The U.S. December industrial production data, released at 22:15, is crucial for assessing the activity levels in the manufacturing and energy sectors. Positive growth in industrial output would reflect the U.S. economy's adaptability to tightening financial conditions, while a significant decline could reignite concerns about economic slowdown [5] - The January NAHB housing market index, released at 23:00, provides insights into the confidence within the real estate sector. A rebound in this index would indicate improved builder confidence amid stabilizing or declining mortgage rates, while continued low levels would suggest ongoing challenges for real estate recovery [5] Group 5 - The weekly U.S. oil rig count data, to be released at 02:00, impacts market sentiment regarding crude oil. A continued decline in rig counts may strengthen expectations of tightening supply, while an increase could exert downward pressure on oil prices [5] Group 6 - Overall, the data and events on January 16 are more trend-confirming rather than high-density data points. The German inflation final value validates the European inflation trajectory, while U.S. industrial and real estate data test economic resilience, and central bank officials' speeches provide a recalibration window for market policy expectations [5]

随着利率预期重新定锚，美元指数维持偏强运行，成为外汇市场的主要驱动因素。在此背景下，英镑兑 美元于亚洲时段持续承压，运行于 1.3400 下方，短线反弹动能受限。美国就业数据强化了"高利率维持 更久"的市场预期，为美元提供额外支撑，使英镑难以展开趋势性上行。不过，英镑下行空间同样受到 一定制约。英国最新公布的月度 GDP 数据显示经济重新回到增长轨道，增速好于市场预期，削弱了市 场对英国央行快速转向宽松的押注。在英美政策路径分化尚未进一步扩大的情况下，英镑走势更多体现 为区间波动。 除宏观数据外，美联储独立性问题依然是市场关注的重要潜在风险点。多位联储官员在讲话中明确表达 了对主席鲍威尔的支持，强调货币政策决策应建立在数据与分析基础之上，而非受到政治压力左右。尽 管特朗普表示暂无解雇鲍威尔的计划，但围绕降息节奏与政策独立性的博弈并未完全消散。这一不确定 性在中期内，仍可能影响市场对美元及风险资产的定价方式。 从整体结构来看，外汇市场已基本完成对"暂停降息"预期的重新定价。当前美元的强势更多体现为利率 预期稳定后的惯性延续，而非新一轮单边行情的起点。非美货币则在各自基本面差异影响下呈现分化表 现。在缺乏新的政策 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年1月15日下午，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成效。中国 人民银行宣布将推出八项政策措施，并回应了国债买卖、汇率及通胀等市场热点问题。 正文 一、货币政策信号：适度宽松取向未变，但更注重精准滴灌 2026年，我国货币政策将继续坚持适度宽松的取向，核心目标是为"十五五"规划开好局提供有力支持。 在保持总量充裕的同时，政策重心更侧重于精准滴灌，通过结构性工具引导金融资源流向重点领域和薄 弱环节。 结构性政策工具"降、增、并、扩"协同发力。央行推出一揽子结构性政策工具优化方案：一是全面下调 结构性工具利率，各类再贷款利率下调0.25个百分点至1.25%；二是扩容增量，支农支小再贷款增加 5000亿元，科技创新和技术改造再贷款增至1.2万亿元，并新设1万亿元民营企业再贷款；三是合并优 化，将支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度打通使用，并合并科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具；四是拓 宽范围，碳减排、服务消费与养老再贷款覆盖领域进一步延伸。 先行政策成熟出台，增量工具接续储备。这些举措属于"已经考虑比较成熟、年初先 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around interest rate policies, with Trump pushing for significant rate cuts to stimulate economic growth and Powell maintaining rates to combat inflation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Background of the Conflict - Trump's previous presidency ended partly due to the Federal Reserve's refusal to lower interest rates, which contributed to high inflation and his electoral defeat [1]. - The Federal Reserve's renovation project budget increased from an initial $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, with Trump claiming actual costs exceeded $3.1 billion, highlighting the financial tensions between the two parties [3]. - Since re-entering the political arena, Trump has consistently demanded the Federal Reserve lower rates to reduce government borrowing costs and support his manufacturing revival plan [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, and a 1% decrease in interest rates could save the government hundreds of billions in annual interest payments [3]. - Current inflation rates are around 2.7%, above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which justifies Powell's decision to maintain higher interest rates [6][9]. - Historical precedents warn against political interference in monetary policy, as seen in the 1970s when low rates led to severe stagflation [6][9]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The investigation into Powell by the Justice Department, instigated by Trump, poses a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve and could set a dangerous precedent for future chairpersons facing political pressure [9]. - The outcome of this conflict may not only affect Powell's position but also the future dominance of the U.S. dollar in global markets, especially as countries diversify their foreign exchange reserves [11].