这份引发白宫愤怒的报告，实际上与其他独立研究的结论高度一致。哈佛大学经济学教授、国际货币基金组织前第一副总裁吉塔·戈皮纳特的研究发现，关 税几乎100%转嫁给美国的进口价格，因此美国承担了大部分的成本。美国国会预算办公室的估算则显示，关税成本中只有大约5%由外国出口商承担，而在 美国承担的部分中，30%由企业吸收，70%通过涨价转嫁给消费者。德国基尔世界经济研究所基于超过2500万条美国进口货运数据的研究则更为直接：2025 年美国的关税收入增加了约2000亿美元，但外国出口商仅承担了约4%的关税负担，其余96%由美国的进口商和消费者承担。该研究所的贸易政策研究主管 尤利安·欣茨直言不讳地表示，美国的关税政策更像是乌龙球，它的实际效果类似于对进口商品征收的一种消费税，其成本最终由美国国内消化，最终对美 国经济造成伤害。 哈塞特的强硬言辞并非偶然，它是特朗普政府一系列不容忍不利经济分析的举措的延续。几个月前，特朗普便曾公开批评高盛CEO大卫·所罗门，要求他换 个经济学家。缘由就是高盛的研究团队发布了报告，指出美国消费者最终将承担大部分关税成本。不到两周后，美国劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗因发 布就业增长疲软的 ...

在此之前，新加坡金管局在2026年的首次会议上维持货币政策设定不变，并预测通胀将出现上扬，经济 增长将相对稳健。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：2月23日，新加坡统计局表示，今年1月份整体消费者物价指数(CPI)较上年同期增长1.4%。 另外，与上月相比，1月份CPI下降0.5%，核心CPI下降0.3%。 ...

新加坡1月份消费者通胀加速，但增幅不及预期，也不足以引发对价格增长的警报。新加坡统计局周一 表示，1月份消费者价格指数较上年同期上涨1.4%。12月份CPI上涨1.2%，而媒体调查曾预测为上涨 1.6%。1月份核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，该指标是新加坡金管局密切关注的通胀衡量指标，不包括私人陆 路交通和住宿成本。相比之下，12月份公布的初步增幅为1.2%，媒体调查预测的增幅为1.5%。与上月 相比，1月份CPI下降0.5%，核心CPI下降0.3%。在此之前，新加坡金管局在2026年的首次会议上维持货 币政策设定不变，并预测通胀将出现上扬，经济增长将相对稳健。新加坡金融管理局在1月底表示："目 前增长和通胀前景面临的风险偏向上行。" ...

Market Overview - The international market experienced fluctuations with rising oil prices due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, and the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's tariff policy igniting market interest [2] - US stock markets saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 1.51%, and S&P 500 up 1.07% for the week [2] - European indices performed well, with the UK FTSE 100 up 2.30%, Germany's DAX 30 up 1.39%, and France's CAC 40 up 2.45% [2] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated a lack of strong willingness to cut interest rates, with some officials suggesting further rate hikes if inflation remains high [3] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index unexpectedly accelerated in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [7] - The US economy is projected to slow down, with a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of only 1.4% for Q4 2025 [3] Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors have driven oil prices higher, with WTI crude oil up 5.57% to $66.39 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel [5] - Gold and silver prices also increased, with COMEX gold futures up 0.74% to $5059.30 per ounce and silver futures up 5.69% to $82.283 per ounce [6] Corporate Earnings - Nvidia is expected to be a major focus as earnings season approaches, alongside other companies like Home Depot, Lowe's, and Berkshire Hathaway [4] - Alibaba, a Chinese concept stock, is also set to release its earnings report [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases include the Producer Price Index (PPI) on January 27, which is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, and consumer confidence indices from various countries [3][7] - The upcoming week will see multiple economic indicators from Germany, France, and the Eurozone, including inflation data and consumer confidence surveys [9]

Market Overview - The international market experienced fluctuations last week, with rising oil prices due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, and the US Supreme Court overturning the previous administration's tariff decisions [1] - US stock markets saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 1.51%, and S&P 500 up 1.07% for the week [1] - European indices also performed well, with the UK FTSE 100 up 2.30%, Germany's DAX 30 up 1.39%, and France's CAC 40 up 2.45% [1] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a lack of strong willingness to cut interest rates, with some officials suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation remains high [2] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation indicator unexpectedly accelerated in December, while January's employment growth was robust [2] - The US economy is projected to slow down more than expected in Q4 2025, with an annualized growth rate of only 1.4% [2] - Upcoming economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer confidence indices, will provide further insights into inflation and economic conditions [2] Earnings Reports - Nvidia is expected to be a major focus as the earnings season approaches its end, alongside reports from companies like Home Depot, Lowe's, and Berkshire Hathaway [3] Oil and Gold Markets - Geopolitical factors have driven oil prices higher, with WTI crude oil up 5.57% to $66.39 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel [4] - Both oil contracts reached their highest closing prices in six months due to concerns over supply risks in the Middle East [4] - Gold and silver prices also increased, with COMEX gold futures up 0.74% to $5059.30 per ounce and silver futures up 5.69% to $82.283 per ounce [6] European Economic Outlook - Economic data from Europe, including the IFO Business Climate Index and various consumer confidence surveys, will be closely monitored [7] - Speculation regarding the potential early departure of ECB President Lagarde adds uncertainty to the market, particularly concerning interest rate decisions [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 1.51%, and S&P 500 up 1.07% for the week [1] - European indices also performed well, with the FTSE 100 up 2.30%, DAX 30 up 1.39%, and CAC 40 up 2.45% [1] - Oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil rising 5.57% to $66.39 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated a reluctance to cut interest rates, with some officials suggesting further rate hikes if inflation remains high [2] - The PCE inflation indicator unexpectedly accelerated in December, while January's employment growth was strong [2] - The U.S. economy is projected to slow down, with a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of only 1.4% for Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - Nvidia is expected to be a major focus as earnings season approaches, alongside other companies like Home Depot, Lowe's, and Berkshire Hathaway [3] - Alibaba, a Chinese company, is also set to release its earnings report [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to increased oil prices, with concerns over supply risks in the Middle East [4][5] - The potential for limited military action by the U.S. against Iran has been discussed, which could impact market stability [5][6] Group 5: European Economic Outlook - The upcoming economic data from Germany and France will be closely watched, including the IFO business climate index and consumer confidence surveys [7][8] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England has increased, with the market pricing in a 78% probability for a cut next month [8]

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，或因天气原因，春节假期出行需求对相关消费拉动明显；春节假期原油等全球定价商品价格中枢保持强势，PPI同比于 Q2转正概率进一步增加。 海外方面，1）美最高院裁定特朗普关税非法，裁决结果出来后特朗普立即采取122关税征收150天的15%临时进口关税，2月24日 生效。2）美国Q4实际GDP环比折年率1.4%，预期2.8%，前值4.4%。投资是主要亮点，由0.8%升至2.6%。3）美联储1月纪要显示 内部分歧加大，总体来看，官员对就业市场的担忧有所减轻，而对通胀的担忧则有所增加。 资产方面，预计节后国内资本市场除关注春晚题材外，仍将加大对通胀（PPI）方向的配置。值得注意的是，即便国际油价受美伊 局势影响，但其价格中枢也将继续保持上移态势，上调WTI油价全年均值至65-70美元/桶区间。 1、春节经济数据看点：1）出行：春节居民出行意愿高涨，全国迁徙指数显著高于2019及2025年，自驾公路出行占主导，腊月二 十五至正月初四，全社会跨区域流量同比增长7.55%；国内出游占主导，出入境游进一步活跃，赴日旅行人数骤减；重点旅游地区 的游客数量、收入增长可观；2）票房：出 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with spot silver rising over 3% to $86.46 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up over 5% to $86.48 per ounce [3][4] - Spot gold opened with a quick rise, increasing over 1% before stabilizing, while COMEX gold futures rose over 2% to $5187 per ounce [4] - The increase in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential military actions by the U.S. against Iran, as reported by The New York Times [4][5] Group 2 - The South Korean stock market saw significant gains, with the composite index rising by up to 2%, reaching a new historical high [7] - Major stocks such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor increased by over 3%, while SK Hynix rose by 2% [8] - Economic analysts from ING noted that the Bank of Korea is likely to maintain its policy interest rate due to persistent inflation around 2% and ongoing financial instability [8][9]

Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market reacted positively to the Supreme Court's ruling, with major indices closing higher; the S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.9% on Friday [1] - Oil prices increased by approximately 5.5% last week, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in supply due to U.S. actions against Iran, resulting in a monthly return of about 11% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is anticipated to provide insights into upstream input costs amid persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Nvidia's fourth-quarter earnings report is expected to be a key indicator for the AI trading landscape, with results due on Wednesday [2] - Salesforce's earnings on Wednesday will help gauge the software sector's sell-off, which has significantly impacted the industry [3] - Home Depot and Lowe's earnings reports will serve as alternative indicators for the real estate market [3] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Policy Developments - The Supreme Court ruled against a significant portion of Trump's tariff system, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president broad authority to impose tariffs [4] - Following the ruling, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff, which was later increased to 15%, indicating a shift in trade policy despite the court's decision [6] - The potential for a refund of tariffs, estimated at $175 billion, is now under consideration by the trade court, with companies likely to file for refunds [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Market Implications - Oil prices have risen by 15% since early 2026, largely due to tensions with Iran, with potential military actions being considered by the U.S. [7] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, remains a focal point for market concerns regarding geopolitical stability [7] - Analysts suggest that if U.S. military actions against Iran are limited, oil prices may spike temporarily by about $10 per barrel, but could stabilize quickly [7][8]

Group 1: Domestic High-Frequency Data - Retail and catering sales showed a significant increase, with average daily sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival rising by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous year [2][10] - Travel activity also increased, with an average daily passenger volume of 30.99 million during the Spring Festival, representing a 10.9% increase from 2025. Railway travel increased by 13.3% to 11.44 million, while civil aviation travel rose by 8.9% to 2.46 million [2][10] - Box office revenue for the Spring Festival was low, with an estimated total of around 6 billion yuan, which is below the levels of the past three years and similar to 2022 [2][10] - Real estate transactions were low during the Spring Festival, with average daily sales in 30 major cities at seasonal lows, making the data less relevant for broader analysis [2][10] Group 2: Overseas Macro Environment - The U.S. is experiencing increased uncertainty regarding tariffs due to internal conflicts between judicial and executive branches, with a recent Supreme Court ruling declaring many tariffs imposed by the previous administration as legally invalid [3][25] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed, with Q4 GDP rising by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth in Q3, influenced by government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][25] - Inflation pressures remain, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.0% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 2.8%, which may complicate future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4][25] Group 3: Global Capital Markets - Most global stock indices rose during the Spring Festival, with the South Korean market leading with a 3.09% increase. The U.S. stock market also saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 1.07% [5][34] - Oil prices increased by 5.7% due to geopolitical tensions, while gold and silver prices recovered, with silver rising by 5.6% and gold by 0.7% during the same period [5][40] - Bond yields in major economies mostly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.08%, while other regions like Germany and France saw decreases in long-term bond yields [5][38] Group 4: Post-Festival Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening post-festival, supported by a weak economic backdrop and low financing demand, which provides overall protection for the bond market [6][43] - Seasonal declines in funding demand and limited impact from central bank liquidity withdrawal are anticipated, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][43] - The low positions of trading institutions and the continued allocation by investment institutions driven by lower costs and declining yields from other assets are expected to stabilize the market [6][43]