Market Performance - On December 18, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.14% at 47,951.85 points, the Nasdaq up 1.38% at 23,006.36 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.79% at 6,774.76 points, ending a four-day decline [2][4] - Major tech stocks saw a collective rise, with the US Tech Giants Index increasing by 1.69%. Tesla rose over 3%, while Amazon and Meta increased by over 2%. Other notable gains included Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft rising over 1%, and Apple slightly up by 0.13% [4] Commodity Market - On December 18, COMEX silver futures fell over 2%, while spot palladium rose by 3.25%. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for January 2026 rising by $0.21 to $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase, and February Brent crude oil futures up by $0.14 to $59.82 per barrel, a 0.23% increase [5][6] Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%. This data is considered significant following the end of the federal government shutdown [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.97%, with mixed performance among popular Chinese stocks. Youdao increased by nearly 6%, Niu Technologies rose over 4%, and XPeng Motors was up over 2%, while Dingdong Maicai fell over 7% [4]

意外回落！ 周四，美国一系列通胀数据出炉。 其中，华尔街翘首以待的11月CPI数据意外放缓，增速为2021年初以来最低。 数据公布后，美股三大指数集体高开。纳指现涨1.15%，标普500指数涨0.84%，道指涨0.57%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 48160.06 | +274.09 | +0.57% | | .DJI | | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 22955.17 | +261.85 | +1.15% | | .IXIC | | | | | 标普500指数 | 6778.08 | +56.65 | +0.84% | | SPX | | | 厨房隆汇 | 美元指数短线下挫，最低至98.167；现货黄金短线上扬，最高至4343美元/盎司。 此前，美国11月非农就业人数增长6.4万，略超预期值4.5万；但失业率意外升至4.6%，触及2021年9月以来最高水平。 美国劳工部数据显示，美国11月CPI年率录得2.7%。 这低于预期的3.1%，也低于9月份的3%。 11月CPI则是首份涵盖美国政府停摆期间的通胀 ...

Core Insights - Markets are closely monitoring the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could significantly influence the performance of risk assets towards the end of the year [1][8] - A higher-than-expected CPI could suppress expectations for interest rate cuts, negatively impacting equities and digital assets, while a softer CPI could boost hopes for easier monetary policy and potentially trigger a rally [3][8] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently trading near $85,300, having experienced a 2% decline, and is range-bound between $85,000 and $90,000 due to a risk-off sentiment in the market [4][8] - Recent mixed macroeconomic data, including surprising nonfarm payrolls and a slight increase in unemployment, has contributed to a bearish market momentum, limiting immediate upside for Bitcoin [5][8] - On-chain data indicates a slight increase in whale wallets and retail-sized holders, while addresses holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have decreased, suggesting a pause in heavy whale distribution [6] - ETF inflows have provided additional support, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $450 million in inflows, despite a cooling in futures market activity [6] - Derivatives data shows a significant reduction in speculation, with crypto futures open interest dropping by approximately $11 billion, indicating a stabilization in spot demand and a potential defense of the $85,000 level by buyers [7][8]

海外市场点评 11 月美国 CPI：能否扭转降息定价？ [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 在降息预期大幅放缓的背景下，年内最后一份通胀数据能否扭转当前的降息定 价？其中，3%可能是一个重要的心理关口。值得期待的是，如果 CPI 同比重回 3%以下，可能会一定程度上提振市场风险偏好，并为年末可能的美股"圣诞行情" 打开空间；相反，如果 CPI 超预期上行，则将会进一步锁定美联储的"鹰"派立 场。 不过我们认为，本次通胀数据对市场的实际影响或相对有限，主要原因在于： 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 18 日 一方面，数据本身的质量问题依然值得担忧。由于政府长达 43 天关门的影响，10 月通胀数据以及 11 月环比数据缺失，可供市场解读的信息有 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market saw a slight increase following optimistic earnings guidance from the largest memory chip manufacturer, which helped to curb previous sell-offs led by tech stocks [2][19] - As of the report, Dow futures rose by 0.12%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.40%, and Nasdaq futures were up by 0.76% [3][19] - European stock markets generally rose, with the Stoxx 600 index up by 0.2%, while Asian markets declined [4][19] Company-Specific Developments - Micron Technology's stock surged by 13% in pre-market trading after the company provided revenue forecasts that exceeded market expectations [4][10][19] - Oracle's stock fell by 5.4% after announcing a stock transaction for a data center project that excluded a key partner, Blue Owl Capital, leading to a cumulative decline of 50% since mid-September [5][19][20] - Other notable stock movements included: - Trump Media & Technology Group up by 40% due to plans for a stock merger with TAE [25] - Lululemon up by 4.5% as activist investor Elliott reportedly holds over $1 billion in shares [26] - Coinbase up by 2.2% after announcing entry into prediction markets and stock trading [27] - Recursion, an AI healthcare stock, up by 3.8% following a rating upgrade from Morgan Stanley [29] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting US inflation data, with expectations for core inflation at 3%, although the impact on interest rate expectations may be less significant due to the Fed's current focus on the labor market [6][21] - Concerns about the reliability of inflation data have arisen due to government shutdowns affecting data collection [7][21] Analyst Insights - Analysts express concerns regarding Oracle's ability to sustain high valuations and aggressive capital expenditures amid fears of record AI spending [5][20] - IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that Oracle's recent setbacks have deepened investor anxiety about its AI infrastructure expansion [20] - Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers predicts a decline in the S&P 500 to 6,500 points by the end of next year, citing historical trends related to presidential term cycles [23]

通胀数据成为当前市场的核心变量。市场普遍预期十一月通胀率为百分之三点一，核心通胀同样维持在 这一水平。Moneta Markets外汇表示，这一数值虽然较此前高点有所回落，但仍远高于长期目标区间， 意味着利率环境很难迅速转向大幅宽松，这对包括外汇和加密资产在内的风险品种构成约束。 从资产联动角度看，比特币近期对宏观数据的反应呈现出一定钝化特征。此前就业数据走弱并未带来持 续上涨，显示市场更关注长期利率与资金成本变化。同时，十年期国债收益率持续处于高位区间，增强 了固定收益资产的相对吸引力，在资产配置层面分流了部分风险资金。 在行业层面，加密市场还面临结构性压力。指数机构对数字资产相关公司的审查，可能触发被动型资金 调整，加大短期抛压。Moneta Markets外汇认为，当宏观利率预期与行业内部不确定性同时存在时，比 特币更容易出现高波动、低趋势的运行格局。 12月18日，在关键通胀数据公布前，比特币维持宽幅震荡走势，价格多次在八万六千美元至九万美元区 间内来回运行。结合近期市场表现，Moneta Markets外汇认为，这种反复拉锯的行情本质上反映了资金 在宏观不确定性下的谨慎态度，短线交易情绪明显升温，但 ...

| | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 980.500 | 0.8↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 15521 | +9.00↑ | | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 196,733.00 | -372.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 17,974.00 | -318.00↓ | | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 241,109.00 | -34780.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,571,738.00 | -55330.00↓ | | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 91716 | -6↓ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 912,164 | 240↑ | | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 975.55 | 2.84↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 15,380.00 | 190.00↑ | ...

Core Viewpoint - The delayed consumer-price index for November is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to provide insights into inflation trends and economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The consumer-price index is a key economic indicator that reflects the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services [1] - The release of the consumer-price index is anticipated to influence market expectations regarding monetary policy and interest rates [1]

从利率预期来看，联邦基金利率期货数据显示，当前市场对美联储1月启动降息的概率定价仅为22%； 同时，市场与美联储的政策预期存在显著分歧——美联储预测2026年仅会降息一次，但市场则普遍押注 全年降息次数将达到两次。 美元近期抛售压力有所缓解，这在一定程度上反映了美联储主席人选竞争态势的变化：此前热门人选凯 文·哈塞特的领先优势收窄，凯文·沃什和克里斯托弗·沃勒重新跻身有力竞争者行列，三者的竞争格局较 此前更为胶着。不过，市场仍普遍认为哈塞特是最可能的当选者，这也意味着美元指数短期的反弹行情 缺乏持续支撑，难以扭转整体偏弱格局。 周四（12月18日）回溯12月17日美盘时段，美元指数技术面显现关键信号——200日移动平均线运行至 99.2407附近，正逐步向99.2240的50日移动平均线靠拢，**看跌交叉形态即将成型**，这一技术信号预 示着美元指数上涨动能正在持续衰减。在此背景下，交易者正屏息以待周四公布的美国11月消费者物价 指数（CPI），这一核心通胀数据料将成为引爆市场波动的关键导火索。 在关键数据公布前夕，美元指数整体走势持稳，暂时守住关键支撑区域，但技术面的看跌信号已让市场 情绪趋于谨慎。此前公布 ...

汇通财经APP讯——在2025年年末的全球金融市场中，价格犹如脱缰野马般强劲上扬，受到美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预期重燃以及地缘政治紧张局势 升级等多重因素的合力推动，周三（12月17日）黄金价格继续攀升，盘中最高曾触及4348.70美元/盎司，收报4338美元/盎司附近，涨幅接近1%。与此同 时，价格更是突破66美元大关，创下历史新高66.88美元/盎司，铂金也触及逾17年最高点。周四（12月18日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于 4340美元/盎司附近，本交易日重点关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI数据。 就业数据疲软点燃降息预期 美国11月就业数据发布后，市场情绪迅速转向乐观，尽管新增就业岗位达到6.4万个，超出预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来最高水平。这 一数据揭示了劳动力市场的潜在疲软迹象，投资者普遍解读为美联储可能加速降息的信号。黄金作为非孽息资产，在低利率环境下往往表现出色，因为降息 会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而吸引更多资金流入。 除了经济数据的影响，国际地缘政治局势的恶化也为黄金提供了强劲支撑。美国总统特朗普周二下令封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油 ...