锂电产业链
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20cm速递|锂电产业链已进入上行周期,创业板新能源ETF国泰(159387)盘中涨超1.9%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-16 04:16
Group 1 - The lithium battery industry chain has entered an upward cycle, currently in the first half, with adjustments presenting layout opportunities [1] - Leading manufacturers have a capacity utilization rate exceeding 80%, and capital expenditure has increased by over 30% year-on-year [1] - Export controls primarily target high-end products with an energy density exceeding 300Wh/kg, with limited short-term emotional impact but long-term benefits for strong products with overseas capacity [1] Group 2 - Lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) has entered a price increase cycle, with spot prices rebounding over 8,500 yuan/ton from mid-year lows, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [1] - Many countries are facing "power outage crises" due to aging power grids and extreme weather, leading to a surge in storage demand, with Chinese companies accelerating overseas expansion due to technological and cost advantages [1] Group 3 - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a maximum fluctuation of 20%, focusing on listed companies involved in clean energy production, storage, and application [1] - The index emphasizes companies with technological innovation capabilities and high growth potential, primarily in solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and related equipment manufacturing [1]
墙内墙外都是产业链
Si Chuan Ri Bao· 2025-10-15 20:29
Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Xiangyuan cylindrical lithium battery project, with a total investment of 6 billion yuan, aims to enhance the local lithium battery manufacturing capacity and is expected to significantly contribute to the regional lithium battery industry chain [2] Investment and Project Details - The project covers an area of approximately 400 acres and is being developed in two phases, with the first phase involving an investment of 2.8 billion yuan to establish 9 cylindrical battery production lines and 1 PACK production line, projected to generate an annual output value exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] - The second phase will expand with 13 additional production lines, with the total annual output value expected to surpass 5 billion yuan upon full completion [2] Construction Progress - As of October 14, the construction site is progressing rapidly, with five main buildings completed and interior renovations ongoing, aiming for production to commence by the end of the year [2] - The project has seen a significant acceleration in its timeline, with key milestones achieved within a few months, including signing, excavation, and structural completion [2] Local Industry Ecosystem - The project is strategically positioned within a growing lithium battery ecosystem in Suining, which includes upstream companies like Tianqi Lithium and Sichuan Youneng, and downstream manufacturers such as JAC Motors [2] - The local industry is characterized by a relatively weak midstream battery manufacturing segment, prompting the establishment of Sichuan Xiangyuan to fill this gap [2] Collaboration and Supply Chain - The project is expected to foster collaboration within the local lithium battery supply chain, with Tianqi Lithium and Sichuan Youneng working closely to optimize logistics and reduce costs [2] - The establishment of a circular supply chain is anticipated, with Sichuan Youneng supplying raw materials to Sichuan Xiangyuan, enhancing local production efficiency [2] Industry Growth and Scale - Suining has developed a comprehensive lithium battery industry chain, with over 50 enterprises contributing to a total industry scale of approximately 67 billion yuan, accounting for about one-quarter of the province's lithium battery industry [2] - The lithium battery sector in Suining has maintained a high growth rate of 15% in value added this year, indicating robust demand and expansion in the industry [2]
三个月涨近五成,这一锂电核心材料基本面终迎反转了吗?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 11:57
Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged past 70,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 50% increase over three months due to rising downstream demand, particularly in lithium batteries and energy storage applications [1][2]. Industry Summary - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 73,800 yuan per ton on October 14, 2023, up by 500 yuan from the previous day, following a significant drop below 50,000 yuan in mid-July [1]. - The increase in price is primarily driven by strong demand from the lithium battery sector, which has seen a "chip shortage" phenomenon, alongside the seasonal uptick in orders during the "golden September and silver October" period [2]. - Analysts indicate that the current price trend is supported by a structural change in industry demand and a reduction in the oversupply situation, suggesting a new cycle in the lithium battery industry is beginning [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, some analysts caution that the industry has not yet experienced substantial fundamental improvements, with ongoing overcapacity issues still present [5][6]. - The monthly operating rate for lithium hexafluorophosphate in September was reported at 62.5%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points from August, driven by larger enterprises ramping up production [7]. - The market is expected to maintain a strong price trend in the short term, but there are anticipations of a price decline in December due to seasonal demand fluctuations [6][7].
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251014
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 06:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 1.12% to 72,280 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 450 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 150 yuan/ton to 73,300 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,951 tons to 36,718 tons [3]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd. stated that its Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentine Carlo project is still in the exploration phase [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The weekly production in China continued to increase slightly, with the lithium carbonate production in October increasing by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile decreased in September, which may have a certain but minor impact on the imported lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is still in the peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly. From the perspective of weekly inventory flow, the downstream and intermediate links reduced inventory, while the upstream accumulated inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and the firm price of lithium ore support the price. However, there are still expectations of project restart, and with the increase in overseas imports, the tight domestic balance will gradually be alleviated. In the short term, the price will fluctuate, and macro - disturbances should be watched out for [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from October 10; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,800 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 829 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,055 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,070 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,100 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,330 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 68,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.48 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 71,500 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 230 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,015.36 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 98,150 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 90,525 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 83,450 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 103,025 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 121,625 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 124,975 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 154,300 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,530 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 32,135 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 29,350 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 338,500 yuan/ton, up 24,000 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.396 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.41 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.42 yuan/piece, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.332 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.34 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 6.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.303 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [10][12][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis [16][18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium [22][25][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [29][32]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 [40].
每日速递|锂电池出口,民营企业占比超七成
高工锂电· 2025-10-13 11:26
Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first three quarters, private enterprises accounted for over 70% of lithium battery exports, highlighting their dominant position in the export market [2][3] Group 2: Company Developments - EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement with Zhongming Aviation, focusing on breakthroughs in aviation power systems, emphasizing reliability, safety, environmental adaptability, and lightweight technology [4][5] - CATL denied rumors regarding the mass production of solid-state batteries, stating that commercial processes and supply chain development will take time, with small-scale trial production expected by 2027 and large-scale production around 2030 [6] - Tai Lan New Energy's solid-state battery project has commenced in Qianjiang, Hubei, aiming for GWh-level mass production and market application [7][8] Group 3: Material Developments - Sichuan Fulian New Materials announced an environmental impact assessment for a new project to produce 350,000 tons of high-pressure lithium iron phosphate annually, which will enhance the supply chain for lithium battery materials [8][9] Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export quota system took effect on October 16, which will impact global cobalt trade and the supply of raw materials for the lithium battery industry [10]
中信建投:储能行业有望迎来非线性增长 推动锂电产业链供需大幅改善
智通财经网· 2025-10-09 23:44
智通财经APP获悉,中信建投发布研报称,过去2年,随着电芯成本断崖式下降以及技术进步带动降 本,储能系统成本已大幅降低。而收益端国内受益于峰谷价差拉大、容量电价&补偿政策出台,IRR明 显提升。该行判断储能行业正处于同样的产业拐点之上。海外从2024年开始,经济性和能源转型的迫切 需求驱动储能已呈现全面开花的状态,该行判断未来几年储能有望复刻渗透率及需求加速增长的历史故 事,并带动锂电产业链供需大幅改善。核心看好集成、电池锂电材料,逆变器等各环节龙头,建议关注 储能产业链各环节龙头公司及具备价格弹性的方向。 中信建投主要观点如下: 通过对光伏、新能源车、智能手机三大行业需求爆发节点的复盘,该行发现在市场化因素推动的行业拐 点出现后,行业渗透率往往会呈现超预期的快速增长,同时需求呈现非线性增长: 1、光伏历史上出现过3次经济性提升带动的需求及渗透率加速增长,包括2017年下半年、2019年和 2020-2021年。而这三个阶段无一例外,都是光伏系统成本经过一段时间的下降后,光伏电站IRR大幅提 升(2019、2020-2021还伴随着美联储大幅降息),这一变化成为光伏需求加速增长的关键节点。 2、新能源汽车则是 ...
光大期货碳酸锂日报(2025年9月30日)-20250930
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 71,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 150 yuan/ton to 73,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - Due to the suspension of raw material supply from Ningde Times' Yichun lithium mine, the joint - venture company Longpan Times of Ningde Times and Longpan Technology stopped production on September 25. It is expected to resume production in November. Longpan Technology is actively expanding procurement sources [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the inventory increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the inventory increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - Approaching the National Day, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. Position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract price increased by 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices declined, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - **News**: Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 due to raw material supply issues and is expected to resume in November. The company is actively seeking new procurement sources [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, with different changes in various production methods. Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased in both production and inventory. The overall inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Near the National Day, price support exists, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project resumption has uncertainties [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore**: The main and continuous contract closing prices of lithium carbonate futures increased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate rose by 1 US dollar/ton, while other lithium ore prices remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased, except for the unchanged price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials mostly increased, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 16,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.3 yuan/Ah, while other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [39][41]. - **Production Cost**: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [45]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, focuses on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, mainly studies lithium and nickel [48].
机构:看好储能、锂电板块景气度抬升
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-09-29 01:41
Core Viewpoint - Domestic energy storage demand has exceeded expectations this year, driven by the full market entry of renewable energy, which has widened the peak-valley electricity price difference, along with the introduction of capacity price policies that enhance energy storage IRR [1] Group 1: Energy Storage Demand - The driving force behind energy storage demand is shifting from mandatory renewable energy storage to economic drivers [1] - The overseas market, particularly outside the U.S., continues to experience rapid growth in demand [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Sector - The increase in energy storage demand has led to a simultaneous rise in both volume and profit across the industry chain [1] - Citic Securities maintains a positive outlook on the energy storage and lithium battery sectors [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The current key concern is whether the sustainability of energy storage demand can support an upward revision of the 20% growth expectation for 2026 [1] - Attention is drawn to the energy storage bidding in the fourth quarter, the expected battery procurement by the end of November, and the 2026 electric vehicle replacement policy along with lithium battery production plans [1]
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250925
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.79% to 72,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 50 yuan/ton to 74,080 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 300 tons to 39,749 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons. In terms of imports in August 2025, the import volume of spodumene was 619,200 tons, a 17.5% month - on - month decrease; the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year increase, and the export volume was 369 tons, a 0.7% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased, while the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased and that of lithium iron phosphate increased. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - As the National Day approaches, with the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices, the price is still supported. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project复产 after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty, so position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot, and warehouse receipt data: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.79% to 72,880 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained stable, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price remained stable, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) price decreased. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 300 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply - side weekly output increased by 400 tons. Import data showed changes in spodumene and lithium carbonate. Demand - side output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased with different inventory changes. Inventory decreased by 981 tons with downstream restocking [3]. - Price outlook: Near the National Day, price is supported, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project复产 has uncertainty [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Lithium - battery industry chain product prices: Most products showed price changes, such as the main and continuous contracts of futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products. For example, the main contract of futures dropped 780 yuan/ton, and lithium ore prices generally decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [8][9] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15] - Spreads: Show the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][23] - Precursor & cathode materials: Display the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][31] - Lithium battery prices: Illustrate the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [34][36] - Inventory: Show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February to September 2025 [39][41] - Production costs: Present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [43]
碳酸锂日报-20250923
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 05:11
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On September 22, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.05% to 73,420 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 350 to 73,850 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 350 to 71,600 yuan/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 80 yuan/ton to 74,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 575 tons to 38,909 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with increases in lithium extraction from various raw materials. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased, and their inventory showed different trends. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, with downstream replenishment as the main factor [3]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output increased slightly, the output of cathode materials increased, and the social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline. With the support of lithium ore prices and continuous inventory reduction during the peak season, the downside support for lithium salt prices is strong [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 73,420 yuan/ton, down 540 from September 19, and the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,200 yuan/ton, down 560 [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 860 US dollars/ton, up 1; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5%-2.0%) was 1,165 yuan/ton, up 15; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0%-2.5%) was 1,900 yuan/ton, up 20 [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), and other products all increased to varying degrees, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price remained at 57,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 270 [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials, as well as lithium iron phosphate, increased to varying degrees, while the prices of manganese acid lithium and some other products remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of some cells and batteries, such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells, increased slightly, while the prices of others remained unchanged [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%), lithium mica (2.0%-2.5%), and lithiophilite (6%-7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery-grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price, battery-grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14]. 3.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, and other price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19]. 3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from February to September 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿, from 2024 to 2025 [43].