1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main futures price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated sideways. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed rebounded to over 80%, and the US dollar declined, which was beneficial for the trend of risk assets [3]. - The import of zinc ore remained unprofitable, leading to a decline in processing fees for both domestic and overseas zinc ores. The profit of smelters was further eroded, and the scale of production cuts and suspensions in December expanded. The supply of refined zinc in December decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - The export window of zinc ingots remained open, alleviating the high - supply pressure in the domestic market. The start - up of primary enterprises maintained off - season characteristics, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate [3]. - LME inventory rose above 50,000 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to decline slowly. The overall fundamentals were balanced, with the weakening of consumption and the cooling of the LME squeeze as negative factors, and the decline in processing fees and zinc ingot exports as supporting factors. It was expected that the zinc price would remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,395 yuan/ton on November 21 to 22,425 yuan/ton on November 28, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2992 dollars/ton to 3051 dollars/ton, an increase of 59 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.48 to 7.35 [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly sideways, with obvious support from the 40 - day moving average below, and the weekly increase was 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [5]. - In the spot market, affected by smelter maintenance and exports, the supply of goods was limited, and traders maintained a price - holding attitude. However, downstream procurement was cautious, and spot trading was relatively light [5]. - As of November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 4425 tons to 51,750 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 4431 tons to 95,916 tons. As of November 27, social inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons to 148,100 tons [6]. - In the macro - aspect, US economic data showed mixed performance. The inflation in September rebounded, and the UK's fiscal budget plan involved tax increases. China's manufacturing PMI in November increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% [6][7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of November 28, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 300 yuan/metal ton to 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 11.8 dollars/dry ton to 61.25 dollars/dry ton [10]. - Kazakhstan's refined zinc output in October was 20,475 tons, a 1.5% increase from September. The output in the first 10 months of this year was 214,334 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [10]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 59,800 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.9% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, inventory changes, processing fees of zinc ore, and start - up rates of downstream enterprises, etc., to visually display the market situation of zinc [11][13][17][19][23].

李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 1 日 关注美联储动向 铝价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，伴随美联储官员近期连续鸽派发言，以 及美国9月零售低于预期，11月消费信心指数骤降等 因素，美联储降息预期冲回86%以上，市场风险偏好 跟随改善。基本面新疆地区前期电解铝企业投产的 新产能本周继续投放，其余电解铝企业开工产能持 稳运行。消费端上周铝加工开工率小幅上行0.3%至 62.3%，在年末冲量需求下汽车领域相对稳健、铝线 缆温和回升，带动行业开工率上行。周度铝库存继续 去库，较上周四减少2.5万吨至59.6万吨，铝 ...

高盛调查显示，超70%机构投资者预计黄金明年将继续上涨，36%预计明年年底前升破5000美元；受联 储降息预期提振，现货黄金年初至今累计上涨超60%。此外，在全球供应紧张与美联储降息预期推动 下，白银价格史上首次突破57美元/盎司。 消息面上，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，如果特朗普提名他担任美联储主席，他将乐于效 劳。降息预期持续升温，据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，远高于 11月21日的39.6%。12月1日，现货黄金突破4230美元/盎司，日内涨0.26%。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国白银国际(00815)涨11.27%，报0.79港元；灵宝黄 金(03330)涨6.34%，报17.42港元；中国黄金国际(02099)涨6.59%，报158.4港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨 5.34%，报32.34港元。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view of the stock index futures is range - bound in the short term due to the interweaving of multiple and short factors, with the current market main line unclear. For IH2512, the short - term and medium - term views are both oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the fermentation of policy - favorable expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to liquidate [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. Last Friday, each stock index rebounded oscillatory, with IM and IC showing strong performance. The full - market turnover of the stock market was 1.59 trillion yuan, a contraction of 125.7 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The latest macro data in October showed marginal weakness, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. However, there are still strong expectations of policy - side benefits, and long - term funds are still entering the market. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas and the cooling of the investment bubble risk of AI assets have also contributed to the rebound of the stock index. But there is less incremental information on the policy side before the Central Economic Work Conference in December, so the upward driving force of the stock index is insufficient [5]

2025.12.1-12.5 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 本周策略建议 趋势判断逻辑 12月初美联储降息预期升温、俄乌停战协议再生变故等因素推动铝价止跌回 升，考虑同时近日市场关于海外铜资源高度集中引发资金追逐的担忧及铝铜 比较处于历史低位。 2 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周主力2601合约看21000-21700区间。 适量增持库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年11月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 今年铝土矿累计进口量增速高于氧化铝今年累计产量的增速，目前铝土矿市场处于供过于求的状态，根 | | | 据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后续总体 | | | 供应稳中有增。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止11月28日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9740万吨，产能利用率约86.06%，据 | | | Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约1440万吨/年，主要集中在明年上半 ...

10月规模以上工业企业营业收入累计同比增速为1.8%（9月为2.4%）；规模以上工业企业利润累计同比 增速为1.9%（9月为3.2%）。 10月营收和利润同比转负，是10月经济数据的短期回踩在企业盈利端的体现。根据广发证券分析，表 征"量"的工业增加值同比由前值的6.5%回落至4.9%，出口回踩、建筑需求偏弱、"反内卷"目标下部分行 业约束产能和产量是主要影响因素；表征"价"的PPI同比降幅小幅收窄至2.1%，"反内卷"对价格的影响 尚在初段，这一同比的有限改善难以对冲量的变化；营收利润率也有一定收敛，10月为5.11%，去年同 期（可比口径）为 5.42%。统计局指出"上年同期基数抬升、财务费用增长较快等因素"对利润表现带来 影响。 11月制造业PMI为49.2%，较上月上升0.2pct。受中美经贸磋商达成主要成果共识影响，产需两端均有 所改善。11月生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，分别比上月上升0.3 pct和0.4 pct。其中外需 改善尤为明显，新出口订单指数为47.6%，较上月上升1.7 pct。 海外方面，地缘方面利好叠加流动性预期回暖，对市场情绪形成明显提振。 上周地缘方面利好 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged past $57 per ounce, driven by supply constraints and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current rise in silver prices is supported by ongoing supply tightness and strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [4]. - Concerns over global market supply tightness have re-emerged, despite record amounts of silver flowing into London to alleviate historic shortages [5]. - The one-month silver borrowing cost remains high, indicating persistent pressure across trading hubs [5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Trends - Silver prices have reached historical highs, with October's surge being one of only three peak periods in the last fifty years [5]. - The other two peak periods occurred in January 1980 and after the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in 2011, when silver and gold were viewed as safe-haven assets [5]. Group 3: Demand Factors - India's silver consumption is significant, with the country consuming approximately 4,000 tons annually, primarily for jewelry and decorative items [6]. - The recent surge in Indian domestic silver prices reached ₹170,415 per kilogram, an 85% increase since the beginning of the year [7]. - The demand for silver is expected to peak in the fall, coinciding with the end of the Indian monsoon and harvest seasons [6]. Group 4: Supply Challenges - The London silver stock has dramatically decreased, with inventories dropping from 31,023 tons in June 2022 to 22,126 tons by March 2025, marking a significant decline [8]. - The market has shifted from structural surplus to deficit due to factors such as the electrification of vehicles, AI development, and demand from the photovoltaic industry [8]. - Silver's role in electric vehicles is highlighted, with current vehicles containing about 25 grams of silver, potentially increasing to over 1 kilogram with solid-state batteries [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Silver is positioned as a bridge between precious and industrial metals, with increasing applications in batteries and solar panels creating significant growth opportunities [9]. - The evolving technological landscape is expected to enhance silver's value, particularly in the context of a more electrified world [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold futures are in an upward trend, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and upward trend with a cumulative increase of 2.54%. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle [7]. - Silver futures are in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and strengthening trend. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price was volatile and upward, with a 2.54% increase. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, a weaker US dollar index, and continuous capital inflow. However, the upward momentum was restricted as the market had partially priced in the easing expectation before the December FOMC meeting. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle in the long - term [7]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 may continue high - level volatility in the short - term. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27]. Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [31]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the silver price was volatile and strengthening. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, continuous depletion of global silver inventory, recovery of industrial demand, and large - scale capital inflow. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle in the long - term [31]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2602 was in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2602 may strengthen in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47].

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index opened slightly higher at 50318.59 points on December 1 but later declined, briefly falling below 50000 points [1] - The KOSPI index opened up by 1.05% at 3967.92 points [1] - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have boosted precious metal prices, with spot gold fluctuating above 4220 and silver reaching a historic high of $57 per ounce [1] - On November 28, U.S. stock markets closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.61% at 47716.42 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% at 6849.09 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.65% at 23365.69 points [1] - The Nasdaq saw a weekly increase of 4.91%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 3.18% and 3.73% respectively [1] European Market Performance - On November 28, all three major European stock indices rose, with the FTSE 100 closing at 9720.51 points, up 0.27% [2] - The CAC40 index in France closed at 8122.71 points, also up 0.29% [2] - The DAX index in Germany rose by 0.29% to close at 23836.79 points [2] - For the week, the FTSE 100 increased by 1.90%, the CAC40 by 1.75%, and the DAX by 3.23% [2] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve will enter a "quiet period" ahead of its December meeting, with Chairman Powell expected to speak at a commemorative event without making significant policy statements [3] - Key economic data, including the PCE report, is set to be released, with expectations of a slight increase in overall PCE year-on-year to 2.8% [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor is scheduled to speak, with market attention on potential signals regarding interest rate hikes [3] - Reports suggest the Bank of Japan is preparing the market for possible rate hikes as concerns over yen depreciation rise [3] Corporate News - Airbus announced that a significant number of A320 series aircraft need to be urgently grounded due to flight control software vulnerabilities to strong solar radiation [4] - Approximately 6000 aircraft are affected and will undergo emergency repairs, leading to potential flight cancellations or delays for several airlines, including Air France, easyJet, American Airlines, JetBlue, and Air New Zealand [4]

在全球供应紧张与美联储降息预期推动下，白银价格史上首次突破57美元/盎司，同时中国白银库存降至715.875吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反映10月 份中国创纪录出口660吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 在全球供应趋紧与货币政策宽松预期的双重推动下，白银正成为大宗商品市场的新焦点，其价格已飙升至历史新高。这一强劲势头不仅反映了贵金属市 场的普遍乐观情绪，也凸显了特定于白银的供需失衡问题。 12月1日周一，现货白银价格史上首次突破每盎司57美元，日内涨约1%。而纽约商品交易所的白银期货也触及每盎司57.81美元的新高。 价格的迅猛上 涨，直接源于市场对供应短缺的深度担忧，以及交易员对美国联邦储备委员会即将降息的普遍押注。 最新的动态显示，中国的白银库存已降至七年来的最低水平，这与10月份创纪录的出口量直接相关。分析师指出，这种大规模的库存消耗是由跨境关税 套利活动引发的，加剧了全球市场的供应紧张局面。 对于投资者而言，白银的突破性行情并非孤立事件。它既是美联储鸽派转向预期下，整个贵金属板块走强的缩影，也呼应了如铜等工业金属市场同样面 临的供应瓶颈。这一系 ...